GOP faces credibility and demographic issues
by Brian Leubitz
I left one set of numbers off the previous PPIC poll post, mostly because they deserved to be called out independently. Namely, this party data is deeply troubling for the future of the Republican Party:
If you are a Republican, the only thing I suppose you can hang your hat upon is that you still just as well with white voters as the Democrats do. Except that with the growth of the minority voters, that simply isn’t enough anymore. The “which party is more concerned with voters like you” question also went to the Democrats. Solid majorities of blacks (86%), Latinos (73%), and Asians (64%) choose the Democratic Party. Whites are divided (37% Republican Party, 41% Democratic Party).
And the overall 56% unfavorable rating is no way to win an election, except in the most right-wing districts. All this amounts to what we saw in the 2012 election, with Republicans falling below the 1/3 threshold for relevance.
Now, that is not to say that California voters are thrilled with the Democratic Party. In fact, some folks are looking for another option:
A majority of likely voters (59%) say the two major parties do such a poor job representing the American people that a third major party is needed, while just 32 percent say the Republican and Democratic parties do an adequate job.
Now, I’ve always felt that California is ripe for a centrist party to make big gains, mostly by taking traditional Republican voters and some of the moderate Democrats. The work of getting there is an extremely high hurdle, creating a real third party in today’s climate almost requires a billionaire to swoop in to fund it. And even Michael Bloomberg hasn’t built up any kind of infrastructure to really grow a third party. The two-party structure is just so ingrained at this point that most of the third party talk has usually stopped at the talking.
All that being said, whether the new CRP chair Jim Brulte can do anything about these numbers is the biggest question about the CRP, but his base might really be a bigger obstacle to future growth than any individual policy or messaging point.
Wait a minute? Republicans are favored 3 points higher with latinos than with whites? really?
My read is that the moderate Republicans have long ago been driven out of there and are already in the very centrist Democratic Party. In fact, in a number of districts, part of the expansion of Democratic numbers have been at the price of making the average Democratic legislator more conservative – at least on money related issues. Part of the reason for that is that business conservatives have seen the “top two” system as a chance to elect more moderate Dems. We have quite a lot of Dems now who will support choice and even marriage equality, but will never vote for anything the big banks or insurance companies oppose. I’d claim what we need is a real left party – a party that would support single payer healthcare, more rational sentencing laws, and end to the drug war at the state level, an oil severance tax, giving the state insurance commisioner power over rates, etc. All things that real Democrats would support, but could not pass in our current legislature.
I think the big point here is this is a snapshot
It’s not etched in stone
If the Democrats nominate a bozo for Governor (gavin Nuisance?)…
and the Republicans nominate someone more qualified (Kim Kardashian?) things could change
These figures are reflective of Jerry Brown’s leadership of the California Democratic Party
Be careful who we nominate After Jerry leaves
Apres moi, le deluge