All posts by David Dayen

And The Cuts Begin

Piggybacking on Brian’s item about the Speaker acknowledging that cuts will be part of an overall budget compromise, apparently the first concrete proposal has cleared the Senate Budget Committee, and this isn’t meeting halfway, it’s actually mostly cuts.

The Senate Budget Committee, meeting late Wednesday, approved a $1 billion package of emergency cuts to education and other services aimed at preventing the state from running out of cash.

Republicans, saying they had inadequate time for review, did not vote on the package, which cleared the committee with nine Democratic votes. The full Senate is expected to consider the actions Friday.

This is the first in what is expected to be a number of measures on the budget.  This one, closing the $800 million dollar gap in the current fiscal year, had to be executed before the Feb. 23 deadline for the fiscal emergency that the Governor called at the beginning of the year.

The numbers are bleak.  $500 million is coming out of education.  Medi-Cal payments to providers will be reduced by 10%, which will directly impact patients with longer wait times in emergency rooms and diminished access.  And a good deal of other social spending programs will see their budgets frozen.

There weren’t ALL cuts, though.  Dick Ackerman’s precious yacht tax is scheduled for the chopping block.

Democrats also voted to abolish the so-called “yacht tax,” a loophole that allows purchasers of boats, motor homes and airplanes to take possession outside the state’s boundaries and avoid California sales taxes if they leave it out of state for a specified period.

The committee’s Democratic chairwoman, Sen. Denise Ducheny, said that for all the cuts under consideration, “wealthy people who can buy yachts should pay the proper sales tax.”

But that’s the only silver lining, it appears.

The decline of California as a national leader is greased by unfortunate measures like this, which are not the result of bold leadership but foolish priorities and an obsession with antitax rhetoric that leaves the state in a perpetual fiscal hole.  New leadership might alter this a little bit, but really this is about the Democratic caucus rejecting Republican spin and recognizing the structural needs to move the state into the 21st century and ditch its 19th-century budget constraints.

Fair And Balanced

Just to show that I’m not reflexively opposed to everything Dianne Feinstein does, she is on the floor of the Senate right now leading the fight in getting the entire US government to follow the Army Field Manual for interrogations and intelligence gathering, which would effectively ban waterboarding and any other forms of torture from being used by the CIA.  She has worked very hard on this issue, and it looks like she’ll get passage in the Senate on this today.  That’s very significant.

Blue Cross Backs Down

This is why we have a fourth estate:

Facing a torrent of criticism Tuesday, Blue Cross of California abruptly halted its practice of asking physicians in a letter to look for medical conditions that could be used to cancel patients’ insurance coverage.

In a statement issued about 6 p.m., the state’s largest for-profit insurer said, “Today we reached out to our provider partners and California regulators and determined this letter is no longer necessary and, in fact, was creating a misimpression and causing some members and providers undue concern.

“As a result, we are discontinuing the dissemination of this letter going forward.”

The Los Angeles Times occasionally earns its moniker of the Los Angeles Dog Trainer, but they have covered the many Blue Cross issues with a great deal of honor and professionalism.  And they can be proud of the results.

Meanwhile, as comprehensive health care reform goes out the window for the coming year, Ezra Klein has a couple ideas about how to make the current private insurance system work a little better.  He’s right that making insurers compete to offer better care is actually counter-productive, because the costs incurred would outweigh the new memberships.  But government can play a role to force insurers to compete in ways positive to both their bottom line and the welfare of their consumers, through some mandated steps (over):

Universality: Insurers cannot compete effectively unless everyone is in the pool. If the healthy can leave, insurers cannot compete to offer better care. They’ll have to compete to attract the healthiest, which means offering the lowest costs, which means insuring the fewest sick people. The system has to be universal.

Community Rating: Insurers cannot be allowed, before offering insurance, to use demographic subslicing to cherrypick the market. That means no more preexisting histories, no complex formulas around age and income and race and region. They offer insurance to anyone who wants it for the exact same price. No exceptions.

Risk Adjustment: Merely having everyone in the system won’t be enough, and nor will forcing insurers to do away with their most delicate cherrypicking tools. Insurers will just become sophisticated at advertising on G4 Tech TV, and in snowboarding magazines, and in urban centers — in places, in other words, where the young and the healthy gather. So atop the universal system, atop the community rating, you need risk adjustment, which means either that insurers are reimbursed more for taking on sicker patients, or, my preferred method (and the one used in Germany), insurers with particularly healthy pools pay into a central fund that redistributes to insurers with less healthy pools. At the end of the day, it has to be as profitable for an insurer to insure a sick person as a healthy one.

Information Transparency: It needs to be easy for individuals to compare insurers on plan comprehensiveness, price, outcomes, etc. That means we need a marketplace where folks can go to shop for insurers, and they need to have standardized comparisons, or non-partisan rating authorities, providing information they can use.

One Market: This is contained in the last point, but there needs to be a singular place, or set of them, where individuals can shop around for insurance. This is hard stuff to find, and harder yet to understand, and real effort needs to go into constructing an easily accessible marketplace that customers can effectively navigate.

And the legislature can absolutely go through the incremental steps to implement these policies and make the current broken system a little more fair and more beneficial.  The last two could arguably pass right now.

A little imagination from our leaders in the Legislature can at least improve what we have now.

DiFi’s Statement on FISA

After voting against stripping telecom amnesty from the bill, and seeing her amendments fail, Sen. Feinstein voted against the final bill.  Here’s her statement:

“I have decided to vote against the FISA Bill before the Senate. This is not an easy decision because I strongly believe that we need to modernize the law relating to the gathering of foreign intelligence, and I support many of the provisions in the Senate bill.

However, I believe this bill didn’t do enough to protect against the assertion of executive power. I have said on many occasions that without the additional language to strengthen and tighten the exclusivity already in FISA, I could not support final passage.

I offered an amendment on this very issue. My amendment, which would have made it clear that FISA is the excusive authority for wiretapping U.S. persons for foreign intelligence purposes, received well more than a majority of this body – 57 votes. But it did not receive the 60 votes required. Given this strong vote, I remain hopeful that similar language will be included in a FISA bill that goes to the President.

There should never be another warrantless surveillance program. And I continue to believe that there should be a strong statement in law making it crystal clear that FISA must be followed, period.

Unfortunately, the bill before the Senate did not include such language and simply didn’t go far enough in protecting against executive power. That’s why I voted against the Senate bill.”

This elides the immunity issue and foregrounds the exclusivity amendment.  But take it for what it’s worth.

There are now 54 other Congresscritters to focus on as the FISA bill head into a House-Senate conference.  The House’s RESTORE Act is actually a fairly decent, though imperfect, bill.  FDL has a petition you can sign to demand that it becomes the basis for what is sent to the President.  Call your representative and reaffirm that.

UPDATE: From the comments, seems like Feinstein pulled a Lieberman here, voting for cloture, against the final bill, and releasing a statement about the latter and not the former.  This, of course, makes me a chickensh*t.  And Art Torres a bold truth-teller.  And Dianne a patron saint.

Art Torres Lied To Us

Several months ago, at a time where Dianne Feinstein was facing censure for a series of votes siding with the Bush Administration over Democratic values or the Constitution, Art Torres assured us all, in a highly emotional speech, that he discussed telecom immunity, a forthcoming issue, with her, and that “thanks to her” immunity was stripped from the bill.

“Don’t believe me, ask my friend Senator Dodd, who will tell you that she led the effort along with him to make sure that [immunity] wasn’t in the official bill that emerged from the Senate Judiciary Committee.”

That wasn’t true then, of course; Patrick Leahy’s ju-jitsu by putting immunity in Title II of the bill and then dropping it was what did the trick.  But of course, that wasn’t enough.  The Intelligence Committee bill, the one with amnesty for the phone companies, was what made it to the floor.  Feinstein offered some amendments.  Her “exclusivity” amendment to make FISA the exclusive means under which government spying takes place “failed” because only 57 Senators voted for it; under the unanimous consent agreement, that particular amendment needed 60 votes to pass because it had too much support.  This essentially invalidates all laws passed by the Congress, since in the absence of exclusivity, what is implied is that the President has the ability to go outside whatever law is passed.

So in that environment, there was a vote to strip telecom immunity from the bill.  This is something the President alone can’t dictate to the courts.  This is the only opportunity to find the truth about how our government spied on us.  And Dianne Feinstein, hoping that we weren’t paying attention, voted against stripping it out.

It was a few months away from any pressure on her, so she felt OK with allowing the President to break American laws.  Here’s what’s happening today:

The Senate today — led by Jay Rockefeller, enabled by Harry Reid, and with the active support of at least 12 (and probably more) Democrats, in conjunction with an as-always lockstep GOP caucus — will vote to legalize warrantless spying on the telephone calls and emails of Americans, and will also provide full retroactive amnesty to lawbreaking telecoms, thus forever putting an end to any efforts to investigate and obtain a judicial ruling regarding the Bush administration’s years-long illegal spying programs aimed at Americans. The long, hard efforts by AT&T, Verizon and their all-star, bipartisan cast of lobbyists to grease the wheels of the Senate — led by former Bush 41 Attorney General William Barr and former Clinton Deputy Attorney General Jamie Gorelick — are about to pay huge dividends, as such noble efforts invariably do with our political establishment.

Every single Senator, all of whom committed to a unanimous consent agreement that precluded any possibility to amend the bill, is responsible.  But everyone in the world knew Dianne Feinstein would sell us out and give the phone companies what they wanted for violating civil liberties.  Everyone, that is, except for Art Torres.

I’d like a personal apology, thanks.  So should everyone who was in that room in Anaheim.

[UPDATE]: In case anyone was wondering, DiFi’s “good faith” amendment fell to defeat, 41-57.  Chris Dodd rightly voted against it, because it was an idiotic compromise.

Art Torres Lied To Us

Several months ago, at a time where Dianne Feinstein was facing censure for a series of votes siding with the Bush Administration over Democratic values or the Constitution, Art Torres assured us all, in a highly emotional speech, that he discussed telecom immunity, a forthcoming issue, with her, and that “thanks to her” immunity was stripped from the bill.

“Don’t believe me, ask my friend Senator Dodd, who will tell you that she led the effort along with him to make sure that [immunity] wasn’t in the official bill that emerged from the Senate Judiciary Committee.”

That wasn’t true then, of course; Patrick Leahy’s ju-jitsu by putting immunity in Title II of the bill and then dropping it was what did the trick.  But of course, that wasn’t enough.  The Intelligence Committee bill, the one with amnesty for the phone companies, was what made it to the floor.  Feinstein offered some amendments.  Her “exclusivity” amendment to make FISA the exclusive means under which government spying takes place “failed” because only 57 Senators voted for it; under the unanimous consent agreement, that particular amendment needed 60 votes to pass because it had too much support.  This essentially invalidates all laws passed by the Congress, since in the absence of exclusivity, what is implied is that the President has the ability to go outside whatever law is passed.

So in that environment, there was a vote to strip telecom immunity from the bill.  This is something the President alone can’t dictate to the courts.  This is the only opportunity to find the truth about how our government spied on us.  And Dianne Feinstein, hoping that we weren’t paying attention, voted against stripping it out.

It was a few months away from any pressure on her, so she felt OK with allowing the President to break American laws.  Here’s what’s happening today:

The Senate today — led by Jay Rockefeller, enabled by Harry Reid, and with the active support of at least 12 (and probably more) Democrats, in conjunction with an as-always lockstep GOP caucus — will vote to legalize warrantless spying on the telephone calls and emails of Americans, and will also provide full retroactive amnesty to lawbreaking telecoms, thus forever putting an end to any efforts to investigate and obtain a judicial ruling regarding the Bush administration’s years-long illegal spying programs aimed at Americans. The long, hard efforts by AT&T, Verizon and their all-star, bipartisan cast of lobbyists to grease the wheels of the Senate — led by former Bush 41 Attorney General William Barr and former Clinton Deputy Attorney General Jamie Gorelick — are about to pay huge dividends, as such noble efforts invariably do with our political establishment.

Every single Senator, all of whom committed to a unanimous consent agreement that precluded any possibility to amend the bill, is responsible.  But everyone in the world knew Dianne Feinstein would sell us out and give the phone companies what they wanted for violating civil liberties.  Everyone, that is, except for Art Torres.

I’d like a personal apology, thanks.  So should everyone who was in that room in Anaheim.

All Over But The Counting

There are still three weeks of counting left to go until the California Democratic primary is certified, and with delegate counts taking on such a significance, I thought I’d check in at the Secretary of State’s returns site to see where we’re at.

While thousands of new votes have been counted since the initial Election Day totals, the statewide vote has not moved significantly.  With over 4.3 million votes in, Hillary Clinton continues to lead, 52.0%-42.4%.  That extrapolates to a 71-58 lead for Clinton in the delegates that are apportioned statewide.  However, the Secretary of State’s office reports that 845,000 votes have yet to be counted in the Feb. 5 primary statewide – and that doesn’t include any outstanding votes from Los Angeles County, the most populous in the state.  Frank Russo estimates that maybe 1.5 million votes have yet to be counted, and we can say with some confidence that almost a million of those could be cast in the Democratic race.  This has the ability to impact that statewide number, as well as several close Congressional districts where delegates could flip.

over…

The uncounted votes thus far are greatest in Sacramento, Orange and San Diego counties, with over 300,000 in those three counties alone.  Orange County went pretty strong for Clinton, while Sacramento and San Diego were more of a mix.  Also remember that there are around 94,000 votes uncounted due to the “double bubble trouble” in LA County.  The registrar has started a hand count of 1% of those ballots, but a full count is still being demanded, so that could shift things.

Here are the districts where the delegates could flip:

CA-01: Barack Obama has a 450-vote lead in this 5-delegate district, so that could go from 3-2 Obama to 3-2 Clinton.

CA-04: unlikely that Obama can overcome a 3,000-vote lead, so 3-2 Clinton.  However, there are 15,000 votes out in Placer County, so keep an eye on this one.

CA-16: Clinton is very close to getting a 3-1 split in Zoe Lofgren’s district.  You need 62.5% of the head-to-head vote and she now has 62.47%.  I’m not sure if they round up.  This one could obviously shift.

CA-17: It’s a 2,600-vote lead for Clinton right now, but there are 30,000 votes left to count in Monterey County, so a shift is plausible.

CA-18: The current 3-1 split for Clinton could go down to 2-2 if Obama comes back a little.

CA-23: Obama’s lead is just 2,200 votes, but Santa Barbara County is not reporting any votes left to count, so this could be safe.

CA-40: Clinton’s got 61.89% of the head-to-head votes here and needs 62.5%, so it’s possible.

CA-41: Clinton has 63.6% of the head-to-head vote, enough for a 3-1 delegate split, but Obama could shrink this enough to get it back to 2-2.

CA-45: Clinton has 63.6% of the head-to-head vote, enough for a 3-1 delegate split, but Obama could shrink this enough to get it back to 2-2.

CA-50: This was a lot closer before, but Clinton now has about a 1,000-vote lead in this 5-delegate district with a lot left to count, so anything can happen.

CA-51: This one is razor-thin.  Clinton needs 62.5% for a 3-1 delegate split, and she now has 62.42%.

CA-53: About 250 votes separate Obama and Clinton.

As it stands right now, by my calculations Hillary Clinton leads in delegates 205-165.  That could change by +5 on the Clinton side and +7 on the Obama side.  So we could see as high as a 210-160 split, or as low as a 198-172 split.  And that’s not factoring in how the statewide delegates could fluctuate, which is probably as much as 3 delegates on either side, given all those votes left to count.  So the best-case scenario for Clinton is a 56-delegate lead out of California, and the worst-case is a 20-delegate lead.  That’s how much this can change.  So nobody bank on anything just yet.

What’s Left To Count

The Secretary of State set up a page listing uncounted ballots from last night’s election, including provisionals, vote-by-mail, and “damaged” ballots.  It’s incomplete so far, but some things jumped out:

• San Diego County has 160,000 uncounted ballots.  That could absolutely affect CA-50 (where there’s a 100-vote split for Clinton right now) and CA-53 (200-vote split) and be a potential swing of two delegates.

• Overall, 356,000 ballots are uncounted, and that doesn’t even include LA County or absentees that were postmarked on time but haven’t arrived.  Frank Russo sez there could be up to TWO MILLION ballots out.

• There’s really no way of knowing who these benefit; last-day deciders broke for Clinton in some exit polls, and the 100,000-plus provisionals may never be counted.

Sen. Steinberg To Run For President Pro Tem

In the aftermath of Prop. 93’s narrow defeat (and by the way, Arnold, we do have to move on now, because, you know, the voters didn’t vote for it.  Brilliant stuff, Gov), Anthony York reports the first candidate for the new Senate leader:

Now that Proposition 93 has been rejected by voters, the races to replace the two legislative leaders are officially under way.

Sacramento Democrat Darrell Steinberg was the first to publicly announce his candidacy to replace Senate leader Don Perata Wednesday.

“It’s no secret that I’m going to run for the position and I’m going to run hard,” said Sen. Darrell Steinberg, D-Sacramento. “Obviously, it’s  a decision for the caucus to make and I know this, whatever happens, the election will be amicable,something that reflects the congeniality of the senate. That is the tradition. I expect it will be that way.”

Sen. Alex Padilla, D-Los Angeles, also is a contender to succeed Perata. Conversations with several senators indicate that Padilla is actively seeking votes. Steinberg has been the prohibitive front-runner for the job since his election in 2006. Padilla, a former president of the Los Angeles City Council, is said to have waiting for a formal OK from Perata to begin seeking votes.

I’m a pretty big fan of Sen. Steinberg, for his engagement with Calitics and his advocacy for the mental health victims that the Governor tried to throw out on the street last year.

Rampant speculation begins in the comments!

UPDATE by Brian: Might as well throw in all the speculation together. Over at Capitol Alert, Shane has a good run down of all the competitors for Speaker. The problem with the Assembly, is that many of the so-called candidates will be termed out in 2010. That being said, I’m not sure I could take a real position on this other than to say that I would really not be comfortable with a Speaker Calderon. Really, really not comfortable. I have a lot of respect for Asm. Fiona Ma for her work on toxics and high speed rail and it might be a good time for a female Speaker, there has never been a female Speaker as far as I can tell. But, there are a number of interesting candidates, and we’ll have to keep our eyes out to ensure we get the most progressive Speaker and Pres Pro Tem as possible.

UPDATE by Dave: From the comments and via email from Anthony York, “Dorris Allen was speaker for about three months, thanks to WIllie Brown, back in 1995 or so.”

Exits… and Double Bubble Trouble

CNN’s exit poll is here.  It seems to have wildly undersampled African-Americans, who didn’t make up 1% of the vote.  But as you can see, Clinton was dominant.  She even won young people (likely because of young Latinos).  And she took women by 25 points and Latinos by more.

… thought I’d add to this by explaining some things about the Double Bubble Trouble that has led to the potential disenfranchisement of a bunch of DTS voters in LA County.

There are 700,000-some DTS voters, but they didn’t all vote in the primary.  LA County registered 46% voter turnout yesterday, and my guess is that DTS voters are less likely to come to the polls.  Let’s say 40% of them voted; that’d be 280,000 voters.  And it’s completely unclear how many of them neglected to fill out that extra bubble that said “Democratic.”

I can say this: based on the current vote count, the most likely scenario is that it will not result in changing one single solitary delegate.  Maybe if a bunch of DTS voters in CA-31 or CA-36 went for Obama it’d shift something, but it’s unlikely.

That’s not a reason not to fight for every vote, however, and there are efforts afoot to do that, and it will be done, and those votes will eventually be counted, and this will be fixed for the future, as long as we keep talking about this and keep identifying the problem.