Arnold Schwarzenegger’s official call for a special session covered the topics of health care and water, but not redistricting, as was suspected earlier. So, with no bill coming from the legislature yesterday either, redistricting is apparently dead for this legislative session. The major players appeared to agree on the broad principles of a reform, but the devil was in the details, specifically the makeup of the independent redistricting commission and whether Congressional districts should be included in that redistricting (Nancy Pelosi says a big no to that one). Dan Walters explains how this proposal’s absence from the February ballot may impact the other major initiative on it:
Democratic leaders, it’s evident, are mainly interested in persuading voters to modify term limits via a measure on the Feb. 5 primary election ballot and entertained redistricting reform only because Schwarzenegger, a longtime advocate of reform, indicated that he would not support, and perhaps oppose, the term limit measure were it not accompanied by a redistricting measure […]
The decision to abandon reform may be good news for those who didn’t want it, including Pelosi and most Democratic Party interest groups, but it may also make it more difficult for those same interests to persuade voters to change term limits because it raises the possibility of opposition from the popular governor.
Schwarzenegger was noncommittal Tuesday about what position he would take on changing term limits but it’s highly unlikely that he’ll endorse the measure, and he may oppose it. And with polls indicating that voters are somewhat ambivalent on term limit modification, Schwarzenegger’s position could be critical to the outcome.
I don’t totally buy that Schwarzenegger is a kingmaker in the initiative process – how did he do in 2005 – but clearly his opposition wouldn’t help. I can’t see him ACTIVELY campaigning against it, however, especially with his former advisor Matthew Dowd on the term limits reform team.
I remain skeptical that redrawing districts with any geographic specificity would change the partisan makeup of those districts in any meaningful way. People self-segregate and the broad changes in regions happen because of demographic shifts, not boundary-drawing. It’s notable that the vaunted Texas redistricting “scheme” (which actually was correcting an earlier gerrymander) has produced just half the results that were expected.
Perata declined to take up the issue in a special session because it’s not an urgent issue. He’s right. In fact it would be dysfunctional to use 2000-era data to redraw districts in 2008. This should be taken up with a new governor after a new Census in 2010. And Pelosi shouldn’t be so stubborn – many of her compadres don’t need a 70% cushion in their districts, and furthermore it would be impossible to make places like the Bay Area or Lo Angeles vulnerable. Plus it’s symbolically good for democracy not to have the legislators pick their voters.