(Cross-posted from The California Courage Campaign)
As Brian notes below, Meet The Press on Sunday featured an interview with Arnold Schwarzenegger. Why is he worthy of such a prominent Sunday morning slot? In a nutshell, Russert asked the now trite question:
In this year of a Democratic wave, why was Schwarzenegger immune?
The show opened with the dramatic statistic that just one year ago, Arnold’s approval was at 32% and his disapproval was at 58%. He then followed that up with the fact that on Nov. 7 of this year, Arnold was re-elected with 56% of the vote to Angelides’s 39%. A dramatic reversal to be sure.
But while on paper it does appear quite dramatic, those of us who’ve been here watching the turnaround as it happened know that it was actually quite a gradual process that arose from several factors, not the least of which were that Schwarzenegger apologized for pushing through his unpopular reforms last year and he swiftly moved to the left and ran on a progressive platform. This more than anything else explains why the Democratic wave didn’t sink Schwarzenegger: he was indistinguishable from a Democrat.
More over the flip.
Ironically, this strategy of fleeing the national Republican brand was enabled by Bush/Cheney’04 wunderkinds Matt Dowd and Steve Schmidt who ran Schwarzenegger’s re-election campaign. They exhibited a keen sense of the mood of the nation in 2004 and had just such a sense of the mood of Californians this year. They made sure that any attempt to tie Arnold to national Republicans was a futile one.
Which brings me back to Meet The Press and why Arnold’s story is even worth telling. Russert began the interview by quoting a Wall St. Journal article that put it this way:
Arnold Schwarzenegger’s 17-point victory alone commands attention since it is easily the most impressive score by any Republican in a Democratic-leaning state this year – and it suggests a future for pro-environment, pro-business, fiscally conservative and socially moderate politics.
In other words, for pragmatic Republicans, Arnold’s victory should serve as a blueprint for how the party can win in blue states post-2006, which was precisely the jumping off point of our conference call on November 9; more specifically, our concern was and is what Arnold’s win could mean for Republican chances here in California in 2008 at a presidential level.
The next line of the Wall St. Journal article points to one of the reasons pollster Joel Wright cited in the conference call for why we should be concerned about the fate of California’s 55 electoral votes:
The key to Mr. Schwarzenegger’s victory lay not in seducing the left, but through his mastery of the state’s rising independent center.
Yes, it’s that dreaded ‘ascendant middle’ meme that the media has decreed is the takeaway story of the 2006 elections, a meme that while terribly simplified, is, sadly, not all wrong. You know and I know that our progressive values won big on November 7, but it’s also true that this was not a base election. Nationally, turnout was huge; by all accounts, both bases showed up. The difference was that the independent swing voters went overwhelmingly for Democrats this year. However, in California they went for Schwarzenegger.
The real problem this poses for California Democrats is that this independent middle is growing at the expense of registered Democrats.
From Wright:
Voter registration stats indicate a subtle but clearly operative movement of voters away from parties and toward non-alignment/Independent status. Example: Dem registration has declined by 2 percent since 2002. Rep registration has remained unchanged. While there is a larger pool of registered voters, up 2 percent, partisan registration has declined.
Californians are fleeing both parties and Schwarzenegger knows it. Having just won, Schwarzenegger used the Meet The Press interview to paint himself as poster boy of the independent middle. Listen to these talking points:
It doesn’t really matter what party you come from I think the people appreciate it and they know you’re working together and you provide the kind of leadership to bring both of the parties together and do the kind of things that need to be done for the state.
And guess what Arnold’s recipe for electoral success nationwide entails:
If there’s any lesson there, nationwide we need to look at it much more like what is it that the people need rather than what is good for our party.
I suppose we should take it as a good sign that even in re-election afterglow, Arnold is not claiming some Republican mandate. On the contrary, he signals no intention of swinging back to the right any time soon. Hell, when asked what an “Arnold Republican” is, he even used the ‘p’ word:
It’s basically being fiscally conservative, being socially moderate and being environmentally progressive.
By now, we know Arnold well enough to know that this is just the latest governor Arnold iteration. And it’s fine for now; certainly preferable to the 2005 edition. But no matter how progressive he claims to be or actually is, this is still a construct borne from the minds that brought us Bush/Cheney ’04. There’s no doubt in my mind that Arnold Schwarzenegger is being used as a re-branding tool (sounds painful doesn’t it?) of the national Republican party. Next thing you know, he’ll be on the 2008 ticket as VP candidate, potentially moderating a more rightwing presidential candidate and putting California in play.
You thought last year’s model was bad? This new ‘independent middle’ Arnold could be the most dangerous one of all.