All posts by Brian Leubitz

Oysters and the Camel’s Nose under the tent

Oyster farm loses another round

by Brian Leubitz

When the Lunny family purchased Drake’s Bay Oyster Company, they knew they were gearing up for a fight to keep the farm in Drake’s Estero in Tomales Bay just north of San Francisco. And gear up they did. When the special use permit was denied in 2012 by Interior Secretary Ken Salazar, they went to court.

The Lunnys now have built an interesting coalition, from foodies like Alice Waters of Chez Panisse fame to right-wing non-profits like the Pacific Legal Foundation, which submitted an amicus brief to the 9th Circuit when the case was pending there.

More interestingly, Sen. David Vitter of Louisiana filed a bill to overturn Salazar’s decision. Why would he care, you may ask? Well, I suggest you read this East Bay Express article:

These foodies, in short, seem to think that creating an exception for the oyster farm won’t have ramifications. However, they apparently don’t realize that Republicans like Vitter don’t care whether Drakes Bay Oyster Company is environmentally sustainable. Conservatives know that Lunny provides them with a perfect opportunity: His operation has generated a split on the left that could help them in court or in Congress, and thus open the door for allowing other private businesses – including ones that are not environmentally sustainable – to receive additional rights to operate on public land, leading to more corporate exploitation of the environment.

And yesterday, the Lunnys lost another round in court, as the 9th circuit refused to rehear the case en banc.

A federal appeals court took a step Tuesday toward closing a Marin County oyster farm at the center of a heated environmental and political controversy, reaffirming its ruling that the federal government legally refused to renew the company’s lease in waters designated by Congress as a wilderness area.(SF Chronicle)

They are now planning on a Supreme Court appeal, and hoping to get a stay of the closure order pending that appeal. This case may end up being a lot bigger than some tasty oysters.

Drought.

Governor mulls official designation

by Brian Leubitz

It doesn’t take too long of a look around to see we are in a drought, but this picture of Millerton Lake on the San Joaquin River speaks volumes. Our extended run of pleasant weather is lovely to enjoy some outdoor activities, but not so great to fill up our reservoirs. Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 60s in San Francisco this week, and there just isn’t much sign of substantial rainfall anytime soon.

Gov. Brown hasn’t officially made any drought declarations, but he’s getting ready:

Gov. Jerry Brown said Monday his administration would soon declare that California is officially in the midst of a drought.

“It’s coming,” Brown said of a formal proclamation when asked during a press conference at Fresno City Hall. “Just be patient.”

A recent survey of the snowpack in the Sierra Nevada Mountains found the state’s water reserves are at just 20% of normal levels. Other measures have declared 2013 to be the driest year in California history.

“It’s really serious,” Brown said. “In many ways it’s a mega-drought; it’s been going on for a number of years.”(LA Times / Anthony York

At this point, even if we get a few good systems in February and March, we will still be far behind where we need to be. There will be big fights over water this summer, so we might as well start conserving now. While the big water users are primarily agricultural, we can all do our own small part.

Rep. George Miller to Retire

Longtime Congress member has been a strong supporter of Democratic Leader Pelosi

by Brian Leubitz

These days, it seems that some Congress members are being forced out at the end of their careers. (See Pete Stark…) George Miller probably had no reason to worry about that, as he had no competion and remains popular inside and outside of his district. But today, Rep. Miller decided that 2014 will be his last year in the House:

California Rep. George Miller, Nancy Pelosi’s strong right arm and one of the top Democratic legislators of his generation, is stepping down at the end of this year after four decades in Congress.(Politico)

While the Dem on Dem fighting is often overhyped and sensationalized, George Miller truly was the heart and soul of Team Pelosi. He was supportive every step of the way, but Miller was no mere water carrier for Pelosi; he has his own, very impressive legislative record:

As such Miller was a player in the passage of the Affordable Care Act of 2010 as well as the No Child Left Behind Act of 2002 backed by then President George W. Bush and the future Speaker John Boehner. Miller helped write the last minimum wage increase with Sen. Kennedy in 2007, and through the years used his committees as a forum to highlight worker safety conditions in the coal, oil and apparel industries.

In the arena of Western lands and the environment, Miller could be as powerful for saying no as yes. He took pride in his role behind the California Desert Protection Act of 1994 and the Central Valley Project Improvement Act of 1992 impacting the distribution of fresh water supplies in California. But he will probably be remembered more nationally for tearing up the railroad track to impede Western Republicans, who took the gavel from him in the Resources Committee in 1995 and set about trying to undo environmental laws he had championed.(Politico)

The seat is a very Democratic one, and will likely lead to a frenzy in June, and a possible Dem-on-Dem general election in November depending how the candidate field shakes down. There are a number of strong candidates in the area, expect the Around the Capitol page to fill up quickly. However, off the top of my head, this could move one of the State Senate Candidates running in SD-07, Susan Bonilla and Joan Buchanan. Current SD-07 occupant Mark DeSaulnier could also consider the race as he is termed out of the Senate. Tom Torlakson is also in (or very close to) the district as well, but he seems pretty committed to his re-election campaign for State Superintendent of Instruction.

UPDATE: And just like that, Sen DeSaulnier says he is in.

The Governor’s Budget and Expected Revenues

Good news for the parks system and schools in Brown budget proposal

by Brian Leubitz

First, the good news: the state is already substantially ahead of where it was projected to be in terms of revenue projections. Revenues for the month totaled $10.6 billion, surpassing estimates in the state budget by $2.3 billion, or 27.7 percent. Total revenues for the fiscal year-to-date were $2.5 billion ahead (6.4 percent) of budget estimates. And all that means some good points to the Governor’s budget, including no park closures and repaying money owed to the schools under Prop 98.

But Gov. Brown is a cautious man with money these days. Nobody was really expecting him to spend all that new money, and so this budget is kind of what you would expect.

Gov. Jerry Brown on Thursday began a sprint toward his widely expected run for re-election by formally unveiling a $106.8 billion budget blueprint he hopes will give voters what they want. The plan calls for paying off many of the state’s credit cards, creating a $1.6 billion “rainy-day fund” and increasing K-12 school spending by 11.4 percent after years of devastating cuts. And for the first time in recent memory, the budget offers good news for college students and the popular state parks system. …

The proposal won praise from Democrats and Republicans alike for shining a spotlight on California’s $25 billion “wall of debt.” Brown promises to pay it all off in four years, starting with a check that will repay $11 billion owed to schools, retire old bonds and give back money to special funds whose accounts were raided during the depths of the Great Recession.(SJ Merc)

Yet despite praise for repayment of debt, there are still many who are disappointed that more social services were not restored. During the bad years, we made monumental cuts to social services, and at least in this budget, many of them will keep on waiting for restoration. As. Asm. Ammiano points out in the above article, there is still a lot more work to be done on income inequality in this state.

Transgender Rights, the Right, and the Ballot Box

Referendum Still Hangs in the Balance In Signature Verification Stage

by Brian Leubitz

Here in California, and the nation as a whole, gay rights is a concept that we are used to. People see gay and lesbian families on tv and in their neighborhoods. But the T in LGBT sometimes gets ignored. You need only look back at the fight back in the middle of the last decade over trans inclusion in ENDA to see how the transgender movement isn’t always included in the broader LGBT family. To some extent, we are seeing some positive momentum on public awareness, with Laverne Cox’s role on Orange is the New Black and her leadership on trans issues. (For example, take a look at this amazing clip of her on the Katie Couric show.)

But California is a leader in working to promote equality. We’re far from perfect, but Asm. Tom Ammiano’s School Success and Opportunity Act, which officially went into effect on Jan 1, gave transgender students a fair chance in our schools. The new law allows students to use gender segregated facilities and participate in activities for their chosen gender. The Transgender Law Center (an amazing and effective organization, btw) summarizes it this way:

Before the School Success and Opportunity Act, many schools did not understand how to fulfill their obligations to support transgender students. With this new guidance, schools – from Sacramento to San Diego – are now updating and implementing new policies to ensure all students have a fair chance to participate in all school programs and activities.

This law gives these students a fair shot to succeed. And, in fact, large majorities agree that transgender people deserve the same rights and protections as other Americans. But, there is still a lingering question as to what that really means:

However, the political X factor is that a large chunk of the population doesn’t know what transgender means. In that same survey, only 30 percent said they “completely agree” that they are well-informed about transgender people and their issues.

The activists proposing the ballot measure say no student should be bullied. But they are incensed about one aspect of the law: the question of access to restrooms and locker rooms. (SF Chronicle / Joe Garofoli)

And, as you see in the video to the right, Karen England, who is running the referendum campaign, doesn’t really understand what it means to be transgender either.

England, it turns out, is not a gender identity expert — her career has been devoted to right-wing politics. If she were familiar with the findings of the American Academy of Pediatrics – which reports that gender identity is generally established by about age four – she may not have been so shocked that the new law “is for kindergarteners as well as high schoolers.”

Moreover, England would also have recognized that boys won’t simply “wake up one day and] decide that they’re girls.” Not only do scientific findings rebut such claims, they also have no empirical basis. School districts that have enacted similar protections have reported no instances of inappropriate bathroom behavior. Right-wing media figures like Fox’s Bill O’Reilly and Greg Gutfeld have sought to stoke “bathroom panic,” based on nothing more than their claims that they themselves would take advantage of the law to sneak into women’s restrooms and locker rooms.([Media Matters)

Apparently Huckabee and England think this is some sort of trick to see girls changing after PE class. Because heterosexual boys are clamoring the world over to be thought of as having gender identity issues. In reality, this is no different than your standard rightwing sex panic BS. They understand that they can’t segregate gay students, and stop them from using the restrooms, or force students back into the closet. That is just clearly not going to happen. But this offers something that might make people unfamiliar with the issues uncomfortable..

And that squirm factor is what they are counting on to reignite the culture war in California.

“This could get voters who wouldn’t get out for other issues, but will for this,” said Karen England, a longtime conservative activist who is co-chairing the Privacy for All Students campaign to put the measure on the ballot. “And I think this will stop any other state from introducing” similar legislation.(SF Chronicle / Joe Garofoli)

And that is what this is really about, a chance to score political points at the expense of vulnerable students. It is playing with the future of children for a chance to ratchet up the heat on the culture war. As Laverne Cox states in the link above, we have a long way to go on transgender equality:

The reality of trans people’s lives is that so often we are targets of violence. We experience discrimination disproportionately to the rest of the community. Our unemployment rate is twice the national average; if you are a trans person of color, that rate is four times the national average. The homicide rate is highest among trans women. (Salon)

As for the referendum, TLC puts its current status this way:

The referendum attempt to repeal the School Success and Opportunity Act, AB 1266, did not qualify to go to the ballot box in November. Unfortunately, our opponents did gather enough signatures to require the state to conduct a full and thorough count. We are cautiously optimistic that after the full count results are in on February 24th, the referendum attempt will be doomed to the dustbin of history.

It will take a while to go through all of the signatures, and while England’s group got a boost from a legal victory last week, the outcome is still in the balance. A ballot measure would be both expensive, in addition to being highly offensive to vote on whether students will have equal opportunity.

LA Sheriff Lee Baca to Step Down

Long-time sheriff had been facing scrutiny, tough reelection battle

By Brian Leubitz

The Baca family may not be as powerful as they once were, what with their number of offices held dwindling. But Sheriff Lee Baca was still something of an institution in Los Angeles County. However, he has been under increasing scrutiny over the past year, and it seems he’s finally had enough.

L.A. County Sheriff Lee Baca, who faced a tough battle for reelection amid scandals in the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department, plans to annouce his retirement, law enforcement sources told The Times.

Baca’s decision comes a month after federal prosecutors filed criminal charges against 18 current and former sheriff’s deputies accused of beating jail inmates and visitors, trying to intimidate an FBI agent and other crimes following an investigation of corruption inside the nation’s largest jail system.(LA Times)

He’s supposed to be announcing this, well, about now, but the speculation is that he will step down at the end of the month, well before his term ends.  A number of candidates were already in the race, and more may enter with his resignation.

Check the flip for a KTLA video on the story.

The Two Strongest House Democratic Pickup Chances

Two hottest California GOP seats in 2014

by Brian Leubitz

I’ve been away from blogging for a while, in case you missed the radio silence. While I can’t make any firm commitments, I’m going to try to be a bit more active here, so make sure you stay tuned and keep watching your RSS feeds, facebook feed, etc.  As a kickoff to the year, let’s take a look at two of the GOP House seats in play this year.

1) CA-21, where freshman David Valadao is in a Cook lean Republican seat after defeating John Hernandez 58-42 in 2012. 2014 isn’t likely to be a stronger Democratic year, but Valadao could be looking at a very strong challenger in one of Cosmopolitan Magazine’s 20 Women to Watch in 2014, Amanda Renteria.

The former teacher is running to represent California’s Central Valley in the House, a Democrat challenging the Republican incumbent. She was a staffer first for Senator Dianne Feinstein, and then, under Senator Debbie Stabenow, the first Latina chief of staff in Senate history. She turned down a position as chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to focus on her campaign. (Cosmopolitan)

Yes, that is that Cosmo, but the full article of women to watch in 2014 is a good read. (There is one other Californian, Kamala Harris, for whom I have done some work.) She has a wealth of experience in public service and is clearly qualified for the job, the question is whether she can make the transition to political work. If she can raise the money needed for a robust campaign, this could be a very interesting race.

2) Down in San Bernardino (mostly), Gary Miller has his hands full in a lean Democratic seat. As David Atkins pointed out yesterday, Top-2 foiled the Democrats as the votes were split between a number of candidates, leaving two Republicans in the general election. While the candidate field is still flexible, that seems unlikely to happen again. At least unlikely if there is a bit more cooperation all around, but there is still a big field gearing up for a general election.

The full list on Around the Capitol is a little disheartening on the top-2 front:

Pete Aguilar (Democrat) – Mayor, Redlands

Danny Tillman (Democrat) – Trustee, San Bernardino Unified

Eloise Gomez Reyes (Democrat) – Attorney

Joe Baca (Democrat) – Former Member of Congress

However, as of now, there isn’t a second Republican in sight. If one does file before the deadline, this four way matchup could be a slow motion repeat of 2012. If a Democrat is able to get into the general election, Miller will be a top nationwide target. He has a somewhat tricky relationship with ethics and isn’t really all that popular.

CDP E-Board: Borrowing Delegates

Focus will be on bylaws change

by Brian Leubitz

The delegates of the California Democratic Party executive board aren’t necessarily what you would call the “coolest kids in the room.” Because it may be that the biggest issue at the eboard this week near San Francisco airport is a bylaws change.

The bylaws change is an attempt to stop the “borrowing” of delegates from one district to another. That is, legislators “loaning” out their appointments on the occasion of an endorsement fight. The issue rose to prominence during the Leno-Migden fight in San Franciso in 2008, when nearly a quarter of all delegates were somehow living in the district during the endorsing convention. The issue has continued to draw attention with several notable instances of one legislative house or another apppointing delegates within contested districts.

The proposed changes have included requiring legislators to appoint into their own districts, or only allowing delegates to vote on endorsements in their legislators districts.  The rules committee wasn’t able to come to a consensus on a change, and delayed it until next year.  

However, a group of grassroots activists have opted to bring a measure to the floor instead. In short, the proposed change would be to allow legislators to appoint delegates in any district they like, but they can only vote on endorsements if they reside in their legislators district. Out of district delegates could vote on statewide endorsements.

The vote will come up in tomorrow’s general session, but there will be much discussion on the vote throughout. I’ll be throwing up a few tweets from the events, so make sure you follow me.

Another Election Come and Gone: Alvarez to Face Faulconer in SD

Dababneh in extremely tight race in AD-45 special

by Brian Leubitz

Apparently the phrase “playing with house money” has caught fire in San Diego. David Alvarez has a solid hold of a San Diego council seat and a bright future no matter what the outcome of the mayoral election. But now he is the Democratic hope to defeat the somewhat reactionary Kevin Faulconer in the February 11 runoff.

Faulconer led a field of 12 candidates in Tuesday’s special election with 43.58 percent of the vote, with vote by mail ballots and all 581 precincts counted, according to figures released by the San Diego County Registrar of Voters.

Alvarez finished 2,638 votes ahead of former Assemblyman Nathan Fletcher in the race for second. He received 52,283 votes, 25.59 percent of the vote, and Fletcher 49,645, 24.3 percent. (News10)

Though there are still some early and provisional votes outstanding, it seems unlikely that Fletcher will overcome Alvarez. And with that, some are saying that this could be the end of Nathan Fletcher’s political career. While it is possible to make a political comeback, the timing of this mayoral election wasn’t really great for Fletcher. He kind of had to run, with his new Democratic label and high visibility. But, he never really had the time to win over the Democratic base.

And that is where Alvarez came in. He was the biggest beneficiary of attacks in many mediums against Fletcher, but now he’ll be going head to head with Faulconer. At some level, maybe the Republicans were more worried about facing Fletcher in a run-off, but their personal dislike of the man than many considered a “turncloak” was very strong. And the wounds were still fresh from that switch. Maybe time will heal some wounds, but don’t expect a quick turnaround of Fletcher’s political fortunes.

In another race in Southern California, Democrat Matt Dababneh (and Rep. Brad Sherman’s district director) is locked in a way too close race with Republican Susan Shelley. With all precincts reporting, Dababneh holds a 13,309-13,136 lead with some provisionals and early votes still out.  The district is heavily Democratic, but turnout was once again very low allowing Shelley to make a strong showing.  The results in this one are likely to need a while to settle out. A Dababneh win would be the 54th Democratic seat, and return the supermajority that took its most recent hit with Holly Mitchell’s move to the Senate.

UPDATE: Fletcher just conceded the race and endorsed Alvarez.

Kashkari and Donnelly give very different visions for CRP

Potential candidates differ on many issues

by Brian Leubitz

With about one year left until the 2014 election, the GOP field for the second spot in the top-2 governor’s election seems to be a very intriguing trio.

Abel Maldonado and Tim Donnelly have more or less made their candidacies official.  On the other hand, former Goldman Sachs (and TARP administrator) Neil Kashkari has been less forthcoming on official news. However, he clearly seems to be building a campaign, and a non-traditional GOP campaign at that. He’s clearly trying to come at it from the middle, but Joe Garofoli of the SF Chronicle looks at some who wonder at how that will fare in the CRP.

Two of California’s likely Republican candidates for governor are going to put that to the test: Are voters – particularly conservative ones – ready for GOP candidates who are pro-choice, pro-same-sex marriage rights and pro-pathway to citizenship for those in the U.S. illegally?

It is a long shot. Those positions contradict the Republican national platform, and they’re deal killers to the hard-core conservatives who make up the bulk of GOP primary voters.

“This is test case nationally of what the Growth and Opportunity Project (postmortem) was suggesting,” said Alex Carey, a Sausalito resident and veteran GOP strategist who was an adviser to GOP Minnesota governor and 2012 presidential candidate Tim Pawlenty.

“California could be on the leading edge of what the party wants to do,” Carey said. “But some conservatives will have to look beyond what their differences are with the candidates.”

For years, the media has been trying to shoehorn some level of moderation in the CRP. And for a while, maybe there was some there. Gov Schwarzenegger wasn’t exactly moderate, but nor was he what you would call right-wing these days.  And Duf Sundheim, a former chair of the party, worked to create a somewhat inclusive party. But in the end, if you look around at today’s CRP, you don’t find a lot of inclusion there. You find Tim Donnelly.

While the media likes to think that because we have a pretty progressive majority in the Legislature and our representatives, that the CRP must reflect that as well.  They would be wrong. The California GOP is just as hard-core and full of true believers as any, right up there with Dixie. It turns out that the fog of progressivism doesn’t really roll all the way into every California community.

Maybe Kashkari can draw enough interest to finish in second place and get to a one on one matchup with Governor Brown. But when running against Maldonado, considered to be the GOP’s legislative version of a moderate, how does he carve out the votes in what will likely be a low turnout June election? Will the two “moderates” open up a path to the general election for Donnelly?

While a moderate and vigorous GOP, or any strong second party, would be of considerable value for the state, that isn’t where the Republicans are headed right now. And ignoring the social issues tends to only work if you are a some sort of movie star. Kashkari might draw a fair share of interest, but I find it hard to believe that a pro-choice, pro-marriage equality candidate, who also happens to have spent a fare share of time at Goldman Sachs, can really be welcome in today’s GOP.