So, you know what I really hate, when computers crash.  That really bugs me, although I think this one was kind of my fault.  But I’m still going to blame it on the Mac.  Anyway, before I crashed I had this great little rant going about the polling data.  Long story short, Phil is down by about ten.  But he’s not giving up, and neither should we.  It’s been said here before that we can just liken him to Bill Clinton and get some of that Comeback Kid Mojo.  And that’s great stuff, but I think there are more reasons than just plain hope to indicate that we have miles yet to go before we can call this one.

Reason #1: Seriously, do you people (and more importantly all you people who don’t read this) really think Phil is going to get less than 40%?  Really?  I’m sorry, but that is not going to happen.  The Democratic nominee will get 40, more likely 45% just for having a D after his name.  And as the crosstabs from the polling show, Phil is a little weak in the Democrats.  But that won’t last.  These Dems who are thinking of straying over to Arnold, well most of them will come home.  I’ve said this one for a long time, and it’s my story and I’m sticking to it.

Reason #2: There are a lot of pissed off people out there, many of whom are outside polling companies’ target audience.  For one, let’s look at PowerPAC’s new poll.  It polls native Spanish speakers.  These are people that won’t respond to surveys and/or won’t be asked because they answer the phone in spanish.  While the polling organizations won’t show that these are your typical “likely voters”, these people will vote. 

How do I know they’ll vote?  Well, they really, really don’t like Arnold.  They think he is something of a bigot.  From PowerPAC:

69% holding a negative view of him, but he is also seen as untrustworthy. 73% of these voters said they do not trust Schwarzenegger to represent the interests of the Latino community…68% of these voters said the recent comments by Gov. Schwarzenegger, in which he referenced a Latina Assemblywoman as being “very hot” due to her “black blood mixed with Latino blood” were insensitive or racist, with only 26% agreeing the comments were “mostly harmless,” as was the primary reaction portrayed in the media.

You don’t think those people will turn out to vote?  I think they will.  Now, most of these people don’t know who Phil Angelides is, but they do know that he is anti-Arnold, and that seems to be enough to support him at a 64% clip 6 weeks out from the election.

In his bid to replace Steve Westly as the State Controller, John Chiang picked up a little national attention in the form of an endorsement from the Campaign for a National Majority.  They only endorse a handful of candidates each year, so this is quite an honor for Chiang.  A little from their press release:

While this race is marked by decidedly different perspectives on the role of government and fairness in taxation, it is ultimately about the financial challenges facing California. Both candidates are deeply concerned about the state’s annual multi-billion dollar deficits, but only Chiang emphasizes the importance of pursuing policies that ensure the support necessary to sustain high-quality public schools, health care for the disadvantaged and top-notch police and fire protection services. Chiang argues that state not only can, but that it also must meet those twin challenges with innovative financial leadership.(CNM)

Listen, this race isn’t on the radar of most Californians, but we really have a stark choice.  John Chiang will bring sensible ideas to the office.  Tony Strickland, former Assemblywoman, husband of current Assemblywoman Strickland, is the president of the California Club for Growth!  You know, the guy that extracts all those “No Tax Hikes Ever” pledges from every candidate, even if there is a serious reason why we need them. 

Strickland supports the Bush plan on economic reform, including his ridiculous tax cuts in a time of war.  Never in our history have we reduced taxes in a time of war, until GWB.  We are building massive deficits with no plan to conquer them.  Similarly we are building deficits in California, and Arnold has no plan to reign those in.  Strickland is cool with that.  In fact, he pushes for that in his role with the Club for Growth.  That’s just plain ridiculous; why would we trust him to watch our money?

I’ve updated the Poll HQ with the most recent polls.  Besides the ones I’ve posted already, juls points us to the S-USA poll that came out yesterday showing a Schwarzenegger lead over Angelides at 52-38.  It was completely stagant from last month.  It’s the only poll that has Arnold over 50%, and it has a small undecided pool. 

H/t to Turn Tahoe Blue.  Remember that jsw is doing his matching campaign for Brown, Bowen, and McNerney, too.  So, give them a few bucks at our ActBlue page.Wanna know about Rep. John Doolittle’s abuses? Just watch this video and pass it on: