All posts by Brian Leubitz

Arnold Schwarzenegger

CA-Gov: The Campaign Teams: What’s wrong with this picture

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The Merc offers a look behind the scenes of the two campaigns.  It offers an idea of where the race is going and the candidates’ respective power bases.

One is essentially a homegrown operation, with long ties to its candidate, Phil Angelides. The other is a White House Dream Team, assembled by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger to keep him in power.The brain trusts behind the two men who want to win November’s governor’s race come to their jobs with different experiences, strengths and reputations.

Angelides has put his campaign in the hands of California Democratic warhorses: campaign manager Cathy Calfo, the Santa Cruz liberal who cut her teeth in local races; chief strategist Bob Mulholland, a Vietnam War veteran known for playing hardball; and media consultant Bill Carrick, who gives the campaign a bit of national heft.

Schwarzenegger, for all his efforts to distance himself from the Bush White House, has tapped three men who have played central roles in President Bush’s victories: campaign manager Steve Schmidt, whose reputation for rapid responses on the campaign trail is legendary; Matthew Dowd, the pollster and strategist known for his famously droll and realistic takes on Bush’s races; and Alex Castellanos, the media consultant who has been called one of the fathers of the modern-day attack ad.(SJ Mercury News 6/16/06)

Yeah, I’m going to admit that they are both heavy on the strategists that have brought California politics to the money-obsessed condition and negative opinions that resulted in a 28% turnout in the primary.  But, why does Arnold feel the need to bring in a bunch of DC folk to run his campaign?  It belies his true role in all of this.  he ran as an “outsider” during the recall, giving flourishing speeches about how he would kick the special interest’s butt and he would take no money.  Now he rakes in the corporate dollar like it’s going out of style and has the insider “dream team.” Schwarzenegger misled the people of California that he was a “moderate”.  I think the people of California can see through that.

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Inside the Courtroom of Dzintra Janavs

An interesting story from the LA Times about Dzintra Janavs’ courtroom.  You might remember that Janavs was the woman who lost to the Bagel lady.  It’s a pretty interesting story of the day to day goings on of our courts:

To get an idea of what life is like in Superior Court Judge Dzintra Janavs’ courtroom, imagine several soap operas playing at once. Plots include the outcome of contested elections and labor struggles, the distribution of millions of dollars and the fate of historic buildings. Some days bring cameos from gang members; others, a battle over control of a local Little League or the goings on in a topless bar.

The stories unfold with the rat-a-tat rhythm of an action drama.

The tiny Latvian-born judge with the sharp, flashing eyes burst into the public eye last week when she was unseated by a Manhattan Beach bagel shop owner with limited legal experience, then reappointed three days later by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.(LA Times 6/16/06)

It’s an interesting take on the story…

Arnold Schwarzenegger

Arnold can’t make a decision on child insurance

As you may have heard, one of the big holdups in the budget deal is the move to insure more California children, including children who aren’t in the state legally.  Now Arnold Schwarzenegger has come out in support of providing insurance regardless of the child’s immigration status:

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger disagreed with his fellow Republicans in the Legislature over the issue of health care for undocumented children Thursday, saying the state should provide insurance for all children regardless of whether they are in the country legally.
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“For me, we should not politicize the children and drag them into this,” Schwarzenegger said. “Children need to get all the attention if they are here legally or illegally. Every child should have the right to some health care and the schooling and so on.” [(SacBee 6/15/06)]

Now, I happen to agree with that statement.  However, Arnold continued on to say that the children just weren’t worth it at this point.  I guess there are more important things to the GOP legislators than the health of our children.  But that point aside, I think the Governator is trying to have his cake and eat it too.  He gets to oppose the Dems move to include support for these programs, which helps him with the Right, and he gets to support them in principle to curry favor with the moderates.  Does anybody really buy it?  Hell if I know, but I guess the only downside is that he might be perceived as a weak decision maker.

And on that note, Steve Maviglio, Fabian Nunez’s deputy Chief of staff, wrote an interesting article today (H-T: to Julia at ABC) detailing how Angelides can beat Arnold.  The relevant point:

Distribute flip-flops at the governor’s campaign events. If there’s one thing that voters abhor, it’s a politician who changes his positions in an election year more than a chameleon changes colors. Schwarzenegger 3.0 has done an about-face on every major issue. Angelides can exploit Schwarzenegger’s weathervane governing by comparing it to his own core values and vision. Remember John Kerry’s “I-was-for-it-before-I-was- against-it” moments? It’s x 10 with Schwarzenegger on immigration, greenhouse gases, health care and the minimum wage.(Capitol Weekly 6/15/06)

This is just one more form of Ahnold’s flip-flopping.  You either support providing insurance or you don’t.  It’s $22million, if you believe in the program you fund it.  Schwarzenegger can’t keep playing this game of trying to play moderate in public, but giving the conservatives a wink and whatever they want in the backrooms.  Angelides would do well to reinforce the notion of “Ahnold: Strong muscles, weak decisionmaker.”  I’m thinking there’s a better slogan than that, maybe I’ll tweak that a bit. 😉

Arnold Schwarzenegger

CA-GOV: Some Humorous Victory Strategies for Angelides

Capitol Weekly has a hilarious article outlining a few ways for Phil Angelides to win.  My favorite quote:

Accordingly, the Angelides campaign should plant rumors in the tabloids that he has been carrying on with Angelina Jolie, leaving Brad Pitt in tears. There is a perfect word for this love triangle: BRANGELIDES!

As with the first strategy, this approach has its risks. Plastic surgery can backfire. (Just think of Michael Jackson’s nose or Nancy Pelosi’s eyes.) If the implants shift downward, Angelides could end up with very large ankles. And the campaign must take care to get Pitt and Jolie to go along with the Brangelides rumor. It might lose some credibility if it causes them to burst out laughing. (Capitol Weekly 6/15/06)

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AD-43: Looking for answers in “Terrorist mailer” against Paul Krekorian

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Just before the primary election last week, the California Latino Leadership Fund, which is at least partially funded by the Latino caucus, sent a mailer to residents of AD-43 linking Paul Krekorian to terrorist wannabe Mourad Topalian. 

The mailer sent by the Oakland-based Leadership Fund targeted Krekorian and the Armenian National Committee of America, an advocacy group that endorsed him.

The mailer accused the ANC of giving an award to “suspected terrorist” Mourad Topalian in 2000, and faulted Krekorian for accepting the ANC’s endorsement in the Assembly race.

Topalian, a former Armenian National Committee leader, was sentenced in 2001 to 37 months in prison for storing stolen explosives and owning two machine guns. The ANC says it cut its ties with Topalian after his conviction.

In fact, Quintero himself had been endorsed by the ANC when he ran for City Council in 2001. (LA Daily News 6/9/06)

Well, now the Latino caucus is under fire for this rather vile hit piece.  In another piece, a mailer went out against Mike Eng in AD-49 suggesting to white and latino voters that Eng “is not like us.”  Yikes!  That’s really a not so subtle racist remark, isn’t it? The actual caucus members plead ignorance of the deal, but they are looking for answers on what happened to allow these attacks:

Political mailers bankrolled by the Latino Caucus, which linked Democratic Assembly candidate Paul Krekorian to a terrorist and played the race card against Democratic contender Mike Eng, are being denounced by community leaders and Caucus members who say they want to know who approved the attacks.

Capitol sources said that the job of the vice chairman of the Latino Caucus, Assemblyman Joe Coto, D-San Jose, may be on the line.

Several Caucus members met Tuesday across the street from the Capitol at private offices in the 11th and L Building to discuss the mailers, which were funded with independent-expenditure (IE) money. They are trying to figure out how to limit political fallout from some of the nastiest hit pieces in this year’s primary campaign.

“It’s an affront to us, especially because we for so long have been the victims of this kind of crap,” said Assemblyman Hector De La Torre, D-Southgate. He and Assemblyman Albert Torrico, D-Newark, have launched an investigation into the flyers. (Capitol Weekly 6/15/06)

These kind of nasty, bordering on racist, ads have no place in politics at all.  While they shouldn’t be used on politicians of any party, to see them used in Dem on Dem attacks is particularly disconcerting.  The incestuousness of the relationships portrayed in the Capitol Weekly article is rather discusting.  Check it out.

Budget

Fabian: Budget deal not going to happen tomorrow

John Myers is reporting that Fabian Nunez doesn’t expect a budget deal tomorrow:

Nunez now says, barring a late breaking deal with Republicans, he will not bring the new state budget up on the Assembly floor. That would result in the 20th straight year of no new budget by the state constitutional deadline of June 15.

In a briefing with reporters, Speaker Nunez essentially accused Republicans of trying to find something they don’t like in the conference committee’s $101 billion dollar spending plan for 2006-07. “No one can say this is not a responsible budget,” he said.

Republicans, meantime, say they still think the proposal doesn’t use enough of the state’s unexpected revenues to pay down debt. But while they maintain that’s the key sticking point, they are also balking at Democratic plans to expand health care coverage for children… coverage that would also include children who are in California without legal status.(Capital Notes 6/14/06)

Damn those kids for getting sick!  Who do they think they are thinking that they are worthy of medical care!  I’ve never quite understood this.  Can it really be that they are so cruel as to want to block children from receiving medical care?  It just boggles my mind.  But I appreciate the work that the Leadership (the Dem leadership that is) to get this deal done. 

The Dems have bent over backwards to get a budget that is best for the majority of Californians.  That’s what you have to do with a budget.  But because of the god-awful 2/3 rule we have to beg and plead for a few GOP votes.  And they know how to use that veto.  They wield it as a club with more skill than Captain Caveman (and that’s hard to do!).  And so we go on, compromising what the people of California really want.  But, that’s the system we’ve got, so hopefully Fabian and the gang can get something before June 30 and avoid the anticipation notes.  Boy would that be nice.

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Oakland continues the long wait

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Oakland will continue to wait on a new mayor.  Jerry Brown’s term doesn’t end until January, but Ron Dellums had hoped to avoid a runoff with Ignacio De La Fuente.

It will be at least several days before all votes are counted in the hotly contested Oakland mayoral election, county officials said Monday.  Former U.S. Rep. Ron Dellums is 214 votes short of the 50 percent plus one he needs to avoid a runoff against City Council President Ignacio De La Fuente, according to elections officials. There are at least 2,000 provisional ballots to be counted in the mayoral election, Acting Registrar of Voters Dave Macdonald said. Countywide, there are about 11,000 ballots left to tally and an unknown number of damaged or mismarked ballots.  Of the 76,496 votes counted so far, Dellums has 49.65 percent and De La Fuente 33.37 percent, according to the registrar. Councilmember Nancy Nadel (Downtown-West Oakland) has 13.24 percent of the vote.
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  Despite delays created by the county’s switch from electronic voting to paper ballots, Macdonald said Alameda County is ahead of several other large counties in counting votes, including Contra Costa and Santa Clara.

The possibility of recounts — or lawsuits — that could extend the election drama for many more weeks still remains. However, the person or campaign requesting the recount would have to pay for the work, Macdonald said. (OakTrib 6/13/06)

It’s amazing what Diebold has done to our elections process.  Why, in the 21st Century, does it take us longer to count votes than it did in the 19th?  It’s pretty ridiculous that we can’t have election finality by a week after the election.  It’s just one more reason to get out and support Debra Bowen in what will be a challenging race against Bruce McPherson.

Budget

Will the Budget be turned in on time?

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The budget is moving along.  The Dems, who of course constitute a majority, are all on board with the current proposal.  But, the Reps are using the supermajority rules to block the will of the people.

Democratic lawmakers say they intend to meet the constitutional deadline for passing a budget for the first time in two decades by voting on the $131 billion spending plan Thursday.

But Republican lawmakers aren’t happy with Democrats’ plans to put $1 billion into a reserve fund instead of using it to pay down debt as Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has proposed. … “For the current version of the budget there are no Republican votes,” Senate Republican leader Dick Ackerman said Monday. “If the Democrats maintain their current position and say it’s going to be this way or no way, then it’s going to be no way.”
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Because the budget must be approved by a two-thirds majority, some Republicans must vote for a spending plan for it to pass.

Sen. Wes Chesbro, D-Arcata, who chaired the budget conference committee, said he thought the Democrats’ spending plan was “honest and responsible.” He expressed optimism that the deal could be finished by the deadline. (Scripps-Howard 6/12/06)

So who really wants this deal done?  Schwarzenegger, who wants to show voters that he can get things done in Sacramento.  Or at least five the illusion.  Not that his gubetorial has been all about smoke and mirrors.  I mean, c’mon there was that time when he attacked the state’s teachers and nurses.  But, Dan Walters points out that the timeliness really doesn’t matter that much:

Politicians, the media and perhaps the general public make a big deal each year about whether the state budget is completed on time, as defined either by the constitutional deadline of June 15 or the onset of a new fiscal year on July 1, but it’s really quite meaningless. Nothing really bad happens if the budget misses either deadline. It’s much, much more important to write a budget that’s rational than one that’s on time, as illustrated by the timely but disastrous 2000-01 budget that squandered a one-time revenue windfall and set the stage for chronic deficits ever since.(SacBee 6/13/06)

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CA-Gov: Recognizing the ‘roots

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A profile of Cathy Calfo in the SacBee yields a review of the importance of the grassroots, even in a mega-media market heavy state like California.

During the darkest hours of Phil Angelides’ campaign for governor this spring, when fellow Democrat Steve Westly led by double digits, the airwaves sizzled with negativity and the second-guessers worked overtime, Cathy Calfo kept the plan in focus.

“I hear. People call you. Everybody has an opinion,” Calfo, Angelides’ campaign manager, said last week. “The truth was, we did have a campaign strategy. We knew exactly where we were heading. … We had a good campaign plan.”

In the end, Calfo believes, it was the grass-roots network in that plan — the endorsements, the thousands of contributors and lists of environmental backers — that carried Angelides over the top in the Democratic primary. (SacBee  6/12/06)

I think if you have to point to one reason that Angelides won, it is the grassroots support that Angelides has.  It’s the reason that Angelides dominated the Bay Area.  He had the support of the Clubs, their slate mailers, etc.  In elections where only the faithful turned out, the grassroots makes the difference. 

In retrospect, Westly would have been much better off with a positive campaign.  He needed atypical voters, independents, etc.  In short, he needed to really run that different kind of campaign, that invigorated the electorate.  But South and his crew ended up going the other way.

The race against Arnold will be a totally different race with a totally different dynamic.  The grassroots will be critical to any Angelides victory strategy.

Diaries & Misc., Environment

A gas cap? Clever Electioneering, but is it a good idea?

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Fabian Nunez and Bill Lockyer have proposed AB 457, a bill that introduces a price cap:

Frustrated by soaring gasoline prices, two of California’s top elected officials proposed legislation Thursday designed to crack down on consumer gouging by allowing a temporary price cap in times of “abnormal market disruption.”

Attorney General Bill Lockyer and Assembly Speaker Fabian Núñez jointly proposed the measure, Assembly Bill 457, in response to pump prices that have jumped by more than $1 per gallon since January.

“We need to make sure that California is not the victim of any type of market manipulation or Enron-type scheme to artificially inflate the price of gasoline at the pump,” Núñez said.
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“It’s a publicity stunt,” said Assemblyman Russ Bogh, R-Cherry Valley. “It will do nothing to solve the gas problem, because they’re not addressing the real issues.”

Rather than demonize oil companies, lawmakers ought to be pushing to fast-track refineries and increase oil supply, Bogh said.(SacBee 6/9/06)

Personally, I don’t think that the way to deal with this is to extend temporary price caps and interfere with the market.  The market has a way (Adam Smith’s invisible hand) of making sure that gas gets to the people who value it most highly. 

However, Bogh has it even more wrong than the bill.  The way to solve the problems is not to increase refinery capacity for many reasonsts.  Of course, the most glaring reason is that nobody really wants to build any more refinery capacity.  The other major reason is that there just isn’t the oil to keep building refineries and expect the oil just to keep rolling in. 

So, the obvious suggestions would be to increase public transport capacity and alternative fuel production.  But, those don’t sound as immediate as gas caps, so gas caps it is I suppose.