Here is my updated legislature outlook, with the updated registration numbers of the districts where the current incumbents are term-limited. I am using a “Partisan Factor” (PF), which is the average of the margins in registration, Davis-Simon (02G), Kerry-Bush (04P), Boxer-Jones (04S), and Feinstein-Mountjoy (06S). My previous diary is here, the initial discussion we had on the legislature outlook is here, and the updated numbers are below the flip.

I am proud to announce that… (*drumroll*) …we now have a Democratic registration advantage in the 15th and 26th Assembly districts!

ASSEMBLY

Republican-Held Seats (12)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin
2	Doug LaMalfa	32.05%	47.27%	R+15.22
3	Rick Keene	34.21%	41.42%	R+7.21
10	Alan Nakanishi	38.59%	40.84%	R+2.25
15	Guy Houston	39.29%	38.34%	D+0.95
26	Greg Aghazarian	41.74%	40.23%	D+1.51
34	Bill Maze	33.75%	45.87%	R+12.12
36	Sharon Runner	37.59%	41.38%	R+3.79
64	John Benoit	34.66%	43.95%	R+9.29
71	Todd Spitzer	27.58%	50.75%	R+23.17
75	George Plescia	29.80%	42.32%	R+12.52
78	Shirley Horton	42.14%	32.46%	D+9.68
80	Bonnie Garcia	46.31%	36.01%	D+10.30

District	2002G	2004P	2004S	2006S	Reg.	PF
2	R+30.0	R+34.1	R+23.7	R+16.7	R+15.2	R+23.9
3	R+31.5	R+14.7	R+7.3	R+0.2	R+7.2	R+12.2
10	R+16.6	R+14.0	R+0.7	D+6.2	R+2.3	R+5.5
15	R+4.5	D+0.1	D+7.8	D+22.3	D+1.0	D+5.3
26	R+5.7	R+15.6	D+1.0	D+6.3	D+1.5	R+2.5
34	R+26.1	R+33.6	R+20.9	R+12.6	R+12.1	R+21.1
36	R+26.0	R+21.9	R+5.7	D+5.4	R+3.8	R+10.4
64	R+15.3	R+16.6	R+1.6	D+0.7	R+9.3	R+8.4
71	R+33.6	R+30.2	R+19.4	R+14.4	R+23.2	R+24.2
75	R+19.8	R+12.7	R+0.2	D+5.6	R+12.5	R+7.9
78	D+2.4	D+3.2	D+20.4	D+24.2	D+9.7	D+12.0
80	D+8.6	D+5.2	D+19.3	D+22.4	D+10.3	D+13.2

Democratic-Held Seats (11)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin
1	Patty Berg	45.60%	27.87%	D+17.73
8	Lois Wolk	46.83%	28.96%	D+17.87
13	Mark Leno	57.75%	9.00%	D+48.75
14	Loni Hancock	60.21%	14.37%	D+45.84
19	Gene Mullin	50.77%	21.86%	D+28.91
22	Sally Lieber	44.32%	23.35%	D+20.97
27	John Laird	48.95%	25.81%	D+23.14
30	Nicole Parra	46.74%	37.88%	D+8.86
40	Lloyd Levine	48.42%	27.43%	D+20.99
46	Fabian Núñez	65.10%	11.33%	D+53.77
52	Mervyn Dymally	69.36%	11.09%	D+58.27

District	2002G	2004P	2004S	2006S	Reg.	PF
1	D+10.3	D+22.4	D+26.5	D+32.5	D+17.7	D+21.9
8	D+8.8	D+12.5	D+22.8	D+28.8	D+17.9	D+18.2
13	D+53.3	D+72.2	D+73.5	D+72.9	D+48.8	D+64.1
14	D+43.9	D+62.8	D+61.7	D+65.6	D+45.8	D+56.0
19	D+28.4	D+39.8	D+44.8	D+54.4	D+28.9	D+39.3
22	D+26.4	D+36.1	D+40.7	D+48.5	D+21.0	D+34.5
27	D+20.4	D+35.0	D+36.0	D+43.8	D+23.1	D+31.7
30	R+2.6	R+14.7	D+3.8	D+12.9	D+8.9	D+1.7
40	D+11.6	D+21.9	D+35.3	D+33.7	D+21.0	D+24.7
46	D+60.8	D+62.7	D+72.3	D+72.3	D+53.8	D+64.4
52	D+70.0	D+73.5	D+79.4	D+79.9	D+58.3	D+72.2

SENATE

Republican-Held Seats (4)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin
19	Tom McClintock	37.40%	39.71%	R+2.31
29	Bob Margett	32.85%	43.77%	R+10.92
33	Dick Ackerman	27.88%	49.70%	R+21.82
37	Jim Battin	35.87%	43.46%	R+7.59

District	2002G	2004P	2004S	2006S	Reg.	PF
19	R+7.0	R+2.0	D+7.6	D+10.6	R+2.3	D+1.4
29	R+19.9	R+15.2	R+1.7	R+2.2	R+10.9	R+10.0
33	R+31.4	R+27.2	R+14.9	R+11.6	R+21.8	R+21.4
37	R+13.4	R+16.6	R+0.9	D+2.2	R+7.6	R+7.3

Democratic-Held Seats (6)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin
5	Michael Machado	46.96%	31.71%	D+15.25
7	Tom Torlakson	47.73%	29.62%	D+18.11
9	Don Perata	60.70%	12.96%	D+47.74
21	Jack Scott	46.47%	27.85%	D+18.62
23	Sheila Kuehl	50.88%	24.81%	D+26.07
25	Edward Vincent	59.96%	19.58%	D+40.38

District	2002G	2004P	2004S	2006S	Reg.	PF
5	D+7.7	D+8.4	D+22.2	D+27.6	D+15.3	D+16.2
7	D+14.5	D+22.8	D+27.2	D+39.6	D+18.1	D+24.4
9	D+48.2	D+63.6	D+64.5	D+66.6	D+47.7	D+58.1
21	D+15.0	D+27.8	D+35.9	D+37.0	D+18.6	D+26.9
23	D+22.6	D+31.1	D+40.8	D+45.9	D+26.1	D+33.3
25	D+38.7	D+45.7	D+52.9	D+53.6	D+40.4	D+46.3

Now here is a list of the districts with the most competitive PF’s, ranked from highest to lowest priority.

Assembly

District	PF
80	D+13.2
78	D+12.0
30	D+1.7
26	R+2.5
10	R+5.3
64	R+7.9
75	R+8.4

Senate

District	PF
19	D+1.4

(Another installment of great data. – promoted by Brian Leubitz)

Here is my updated legislature outlook, with the updated registration numbers of the districts where the current incumbents are term-limited. I am using a “Partisan Factor” (PF), which is the average of the margins in registration, Davis-Simon (02G), Kerry-Bush (04P), Boxer-Jones (04S), and Feinstein-Mountjoy (06S). My previous diary is here, the initial discussion we had on the legislature outlook is here, and the updated numbers are below the flip.

ASSEMBLY

Republican-Held Seats (12)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin
2	Doug LaMalfa	31.86%	47.28%	R+15.42
3	Rick Keene	33.81%	41.31%	R+7.50
10	Alan Nakanishi	38.19%	41.20%	R+3.01
15	Guy Houston	38.72%	38.82%	R+0.10
26	Greg Aghazarian	41.05%	41.21%	R+0.16
34	Bill Maze	33.23%	46.23%	R+13.00
36	Sharon Runner	36.61%	42.00%	R+5.39
64	John Benoit	33.98%	44.71%	R+10.73
71	Todd Spitzer	26.95%	51.27%	R+24.32
75	George Plescia	29.43%	42.79%	R+13.36
78	Shirley Horton	41.58%	33.10%	D+8.48
80	Bonnie Garcia	45.68%	36.49%	D+9.19

District	2002G	2004P	2004S	2006S	Reg.	PF
2	R+30.0	R+34.1	R+23.7	R+16.7	R+15.4	R+24.0
3	R+31.5	R+14.7	R+7.3	R+0.2	R+7.5	R+12.2
10	R+16.6	R+14.0	R+0.7	D+6.2	R+3.0	R+5.6
15	R+4.5	D+0.1	D+7.8	D+22.3	R+0.1	D+6.4
26	R+5.7	R+15.6	D+1.0	D+6.3	R+0.2	R+2.8
34	R+26.1	R+33.6	R+20.9	R+12.6	R+13.0	R+21.2
36	R+26.0	R+21.9	R+5.7	D+5.4	R+5.4	R+10.7
64	R+15.3	R+16.6	R+1.6	D+0.7	R+10.7	R+8.7
71	R+33.6	R+30.2	R+19.4	R+14.4	R+24.3	R+24.4
75	R+19.8	R+12.7	R+0.2	D+5.6	R+13.4	R+8.1
78	D+2.4	D+3.2	D+20.4	D+24.2	D+8.5	D+11.7
80	D+8.6	D+5.2	D+19.3	D+22.4	D+9.2	D+12.9

Democratic-Held Seats (11)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin
1	Patty Berg	45.18%	28.11%	D+17.07
8	Lois Wolk	46.17%	29.28%	D+16.89
13	Mark Leno	57.08%	9.22%	D+47.86
14	Loni Hancock	59.41%	14.59%	D+44.82
19	Gene Mullin	50.48%	22.18%	D+28.30
22	Sally Lieber	43.91%	23.81%	D+20.10
27	John Laird	48.60%	26.10%	D+22.50
30	Nicole Parra	46.18%	38.40%	D+7.78
40	Lloyd Levine	47.89%	27.75%	D+20.14
46	Fabian Núñez	64.07%	12.00%	D+52.07
52	Mervyn Dymally	68.49%	11.85%	D+56.64

District	2002G	2004P	2004S	2006S	Reg.	PF
1	D+10.3	D+22.4	D+26.5	D+32.5	D+17.1	D+21.8
8	D+8.8	D+12.5	D+22.8	D+28.8	D+16.9	D+18.0
13	D+53.3	D+72.2	D+73.5	D+72.9	D+47.9	D+64.0
14	D+43.9	D+62.8	D+61.7	D+65.6	D+44.8	D+55.8
19	D+28.4	D+39.8	D+44.8	D+54.4	D+28.3	D+39.1
22	D+26.4	D+36.1	D+40.7	D+48.5	D+20.1	D+34.4
27	D+20.4	D+35.0	D+36.0	D+43.8	D+22.5	D+31.5
30	R+2.6	R+14.7	D+3.8	D+12.9	D+7.8	D+1.4
40	D+11.6	D+21.9	D+35.3	D+33.7	D+20.1	D+24.5
46	D+60.8	D+62.7	D+72.3	D+72.3	D+52.1	D+64.0
52	D+70.0	D+73.5	D+79.4	D+79.9	D+56.6	D+71.9

SENATE

Republican-Held Seats (5)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin
15	Abel Maldonado*	40.05%	36.82%	D+3.23
19	Tom McClintock	36.84%	39.93%	R+3.09
29	Bob Margett	32.37%	44.19%	R+11.82
33	Dick Ackerman	27.32%	50.06%	R+22.74
37	Jim Battin	35.14%	44.28%	R+9.14

District	2002G	2004P	2004S	2006S	Reg.	PF
15	R+2.4	D+6.4	D+11.3	D+20.6	D+3.2	D+7.8
19	R+7.0	R+2.0	D+7.6	D+10.6	R+3.1	D+1.2
29	R+19.9	R+15.2	R+1.7	R+2.2	R+11.8	R+10.2
33	R+31.4	R+27.2	R+14.9	R+11.6	R+22.7	R+21.6
37	R+13.4	R+16.6	R+0.9	D+2.2	R+9.1	R+7.6

Democratic-Held Seats (6)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin
5	Michael Machado	46.32%	32.14%	D+14.18
7	Tom Torlakson	47.16%	30.12%	D+17.04
9	Don Perata	59.52%	13.20%	D+46.32
21	Jack Scott	45.89%	28.18%	D+17.71
23	Sheila Kuehl	50.31%	25.01%	D+25.30
25	Edward Vincent	59.23%	20.16%	D+39.07

District	2002G	2004P	2004S	2006S	Reg.	PF
5	D+7.7	D+8.4	D+22.2	D+27.6	D+14.2	D+16.0
7	D+14.5	D+22.8	D+27.2	D+39.6	D+17.0	D+24.2
9	D+48.2	D+63.6	D+64.5	D+66.6	D+46.3	D+57.8
21	D+15.0	D+27.8	D+35.9	D+37.0	D+17.7	D+26.7
23	D+22.6	D+31.1	D+40.8	D+45.9	D+25.3	D+33.1
25	D+38.7	D+45.7	D+52.9	D+53.6	D+39.1	D+46.0

Now here is a list of the districts with the most competitive PF’s, ranked from highest to lowest priority.

Assembly

District	PF
80	D+12.9
78	D+11.7
15	D+6.4
30	D+1.4
26	R+2.8
10	R+5.6
64	R+8.1
75	R+8.7

Senate

District	PF
15	D+7.8
19	D+1.2

For those who may not know how the California Democratic delegate delegation system works, let me give a brief explanation as to how the delegates are divvied up. The 241 district delegates are proportioned by the congressional district’s vote. The 129 at-large delegates are divvied up by the statewide percentage vote, though adjustments were necessary since the sum of Clinton’s and Obama’s percentages was less than 100%. I summed up their totals (93.9%) and divided Clinton’s 52.3% and Obama’s 41.6% by the 93.9% to obtain 55.7% for Clinton and 44.3% for Obama. Then I distributed the delegates based on those percentages.

Update: I readjusted some districts as well as the statewide delegates when I found out about the 2-block system for the statewide delegates. I don’t know how PLEO delegates are distributed, so I just took Hermit9’s word and gave Clinton 71 statewide delegates and Obama 58. The raw numbers of delegates changed slightly in Obama’s favor, though Hillary still takes about 55% of the delegates.

Over the flip is the table of results based on the numbers as of 3:30 AM Pacific Standard Time. I will have one more update when all results are in.

District	Delegates	C %	C Delegates	O %	O Delegates
1	5	45.7	2	46.1	3
2	4	46.9	2	40.9	2
3	4	48.2	2	44.4	2
4	5	46.5	2	43.1	3
5	5	44.9	2	50.1	3
6	6	41.7	3	50.9	3
7	5	49.7	3	44.8	2
8	6	43.5	3	53.4	3
9	6	34.2	2	61.5	4
10	5	49.3	3	44.3	2
11	4	54.6	2	38.9	2
12	6	52.6	3	42.3	3
13	5	57.9	3	31.0	2
14	6	44.7	3	49.9	3
15	5	56.1	3	37.6	2
16	4	59.8	2	34.8	2
17	5	48.8	3	45.4	2
18	4	60.5	2	32.6	2
19	4	55.0	2	35.2	2
20	3	64.5	2	28.8	1
21	4	59.4	2	31.5	2
22	4	50.9	2	38.3	2
23	5	46.4	2	47.2	3
24	5	51.4	3	41.9	2
25	4	53.9	2	39.7	2
26	4	54.7	2	39.2	2
27	5	59.6	3	36.2	2
28	5	60.0	3	36.8	2
29	5	52.2	3	44.3	2
30	6	49.9	3	46.7	3
31	4	64.1	3	33.5	1
32	4	71.4	3	24.4	1
33	5	36.8	2	61.4	3
34	4	73.3	3	23.3	1
35	5	39.1	2	58.6	3
36	5	52.2	3	43.4	2
37	5	43.8	2	53.8	3
38	4	72.5	3	24.0	1
39	4	66.9	3	29.3	1
40	4	57.4	2	35.3	2
41	4	58.5	2	31.9	2
42	4	56.3	2	37.3	2
43	4	63.2	3	31.2	1
44	4	55.2	2	38.3	2
45	4	59.8	3	32.8	1
46	4	53.0	2	40.1	2
47	3	67.9	2	26.8	1
48	4	50.9	2	43.3	2
49	4	54.6	2	37.4	2
50	5	47.7	3	46.3	2
51	4	59.7	3	35.7	1
52	4	50.1	2	41.8	2
53	5	47.8	3	47.5	2
State	129	52.0	71	42.4	58

Based on the results so far, Clinton receives 202 delegates (71 at-large and 131 district) for about 55% of California’s 370 delegates up for grabs on Super Tuesday, while Obama receives 168 (58 at-large and 110 district) for about 45%.

(wanted to make sure this didn’t get lost. excellent tables! – promoted by Robert in Monterey)

Many in the California Democratic Party circles may not know this, but in 2008 there is a real possibility of gaining 2/3 majorities in the State Senate and State Assembly. The fact that a two-thirds vote in both houses is required to pass the annual budget and to override gubernatorial vetoes could serve as a compelling reason to vote against the term-limits initiative.

Using my extraordinary math, statistics, and HTML skills, below I included with each list of incumbents are the margins that each district voted in the 2002 Governor’s race (2002G: Davis vs. Simon), 2004 Presidential race (2004P: Kerry vs. Bush), 2004 Senate race (2004S: Boxer vs. Jones), and 2006 Senate race (2006S: Feinstein vs. Mountjoy) and the average of these and the registration margins, which I will call the Partisan Factor (PF).

Check out the discussion here.

Numbers are below the flip:

ASSEMBLY

23 Assemblymembers are term-limited in 2008, 12 Republicans and 11 Democrats. Here are the districts which will be open, the term-limited incumbent (for reference) and the registration statistics.

Republican-Held Seats (12)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin
2	Doug La Malfa	31.76%	47.44%	R+15.68
3	Rick Keene	33.41%	41.75%	R+8.34
10	Alan Nakanishi	37.80%	41.83%	R+3.97
15	Guy Houston	38.26%	39.51%	R+1.25
26	Greg Aghazarian	40.84%	41.99%	R+1.15
34	Bill Maze	32.89%	46.88%	R+13.99
36	Sharon Runner	36.16%	42.77%	R+6.61
64	John Benoit	33.49%	45.45%	R+7.94
71	Todd Spitzer	26.55%	52.07%	R+25.52
75	George Plescia	28.73%	43.15%	R+14.42
78	Shirley Horton	40.92%	33.99%	D+6.93
80	Bonnie Garcia	45.59%	36.97%	D+8.62

District	2002G	2004P	2004S	2006S	PF
2	R+30.0	R+34.1	R+23.7	R+16.7	R+24.0
3	R+31.5	R+14.7	R+7.3	R+0.2	R+12.4
10	R+16.6	R+14.0	R+0.7	D+6.2	R+5.8
15	R+4.5	D+0.1	D+7.8	D+22.3	D+4.9
26	R+5.7	R+15.6	D+1.0	D+6.3	R+3.0
34	R+26.1	R+33.6	R+20.9	R+12.6	R+21.4
36	R+26.0	R+21.9	R+5.7	D+5.4	R+11.0
64	R+15.3	R+16.6	R+1.6	D+0.7	R+8.1
71	R+33.6	R+30.2	R+19.4	R+14.4	R+24.6
75	R+19.8	R+12.7	R+0.2	D+5.6	R+8.3
78	D+2.4	D+3.2	D+20.4	D+24.2	D+11.4
80	D+8.6	D+5.2	D+19.3	D+22.4	D+12.8

Democratic-Held Seats (11)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin
1	Patty Berg	44.52%	28.05%	D+16.27
8	Lois Wolk	45.52%	29.51%	D+16.01
13	Mark Leno	56.22%	9.31%	D+46.91
14	Loni Hancock	58.70%	15.04%	D+43.66
19	Gene Mullin	50.05%	22.57%	D+27.48
22	Sally Lieber	43.40%	24.25%	D+19.15
27	John Laird	48.12%	26.40%	D+21.68
30	Nicole Parra	46.45%	38.70%	D+7.75
40	Lloyd Levine	47.78%	28.12%	D+19.66
46	Fabian Núñez	63.37%	12.78%	D+50.59
52	Mervyn Dymally	67.90%	13.00%	D+54.90

District	2002G	2004P	2004S	2006S	PF
1	D+10.3	D+22.4	D+26.5	D+32.5	D+21.6
8	D+8.8	D+12.5	D+22.8	D+28.8	D+17.8
13	D+53.3	D+72.2	D+73.5	D+72.9	D+63.8
14	D+43.9	D+62.8	D+61.7	D+65.6	D+55.5
19	D+28.4	D+39.8	D+44.8	D+54.4	D+39.0
22	D+26.4	D+36.1	D+40.7	D+48.5	D+34.2
27	D+20.4	D+35.0	D+36.0	D+43.8	D+31.4
30	R+2.6	R+14.7	D+3.8	D+12.9	D+1.4
40	D+11.6	D+21.9	D+35.3	D+33.7	D+24.3
46	D+60.8	D+62.7	D+72.3	D+72.3	D+63.7
52	D+70.0	D+73.5	D+79.4	D+79.9	D+71.5

SENATE

10 Senators are term-limited in 2008, 6 Democrats and 4 Republicans.

*Maldonado is not term-limited but may be vulnerable in his increasingly Democratic district.

Republican-Held Seats (5)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin
15	Abel Maldonado*	39.69%	37.14%	D+2.55
19	Tom McClintock	36.23%	40.36%	R+4.13
29	Bob Margett	32.14%	44.68%	R+12.54
33	Dick Ackerman	26.94%	50.75%	R+23.81
37	Jim Battin	34.57%	45.26%	R+10.69

District	2002G	2004P	2004S	2006S	PF
15	R+2.4	D+6.4	D+11.3	D+20.6	D+7.7
19	R+7.0	R+2.0	D+7.6	D+10.6	D+1.0
29	R+19.9	R+15.2	R+1.7	R+2.2	R+10.3
33	R+31.4	R+27.2	R+14.9	R+11.6	R+21.8
37	R+13.4	R+16.6	R+0.9	D+2.2	R+7.9

Democratic-Held Seats (6)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin
5	Michael Machado	45.98%	32.41%	D+13.57
7	Tom Torlakson	46.81%	30.66%	D+16.15
9	Don Perata	58.98%	13.53%	D+45.45
21	Jack Scott	45.65%	28.56%	D+17.09
23	Sheila Kuehl	50.07%	25.26%	D+24.81
25	Edward Vincent	58.87%	20.97%	D+37.90

District	2002G	2004P	2004S	2006S	PF
5	D+7.7	D+8.4	D+22.2	D+27.6	D+15.9
7	D+14.5	D+22.8	D+27.2	D+39.6	D+24.1
9	D+48.2	D+63.6	D+64.5	D+66.6	D+57.7
21	D+15.0	D+27.8	D+35.9	D+37.0	D+26.6
23	D+22.6	D+31.1	D+40.8	D+45.9	D+33.0
25	D+38.7	D+45.7	D+52.9	D+53.6	D+45.8

Now here is a list of the districts with the most competitive PF’s, ranked from highest to lowest priority.

Assembly

District	PF
80	D+12.8
78	D+11.4
15	D+4.9
30	D+1.4
26	R+3.0
10	R+5.8
64	R+8.1
75	R+8.3

Senate

District	PF
15	D+7.7
19	D+1.0

Overall, we should target Assembly Districts 10, 15, 26, 64, 75, 78, and 80 while defending District 30, and target Senate Districts 15 and 19. If we manage to win both Senate seats, we will have 27 Senate seats, enough for a 2/3 majority. If we win the most competitive Assembly districts (10, 15, 26, 78, 80) we will have 53, just one short of 2/3. We would have to win at least one of the lesser competitive districts (64, 75) to reach 2/3 there. We will also have to defend AD-30, which may not be hard if we find a candidate less divisive than Parra.

With 2/3 in both houses, we can finally pass decent budgets without significant bickering and with sufficient funding for things like mental health facilities and public transit including high-speed rail.

This displaced Southern Californian sends her most heartfelt gratitudes out to Governor Bill and the New Mexico firefighters for their generosity. Bill also donated $10,000 to the Red Cross to help assist in the recovery efforts. This has led me to believe that under a President Richardson administration, the National Guard will be home to support their fellow citizens in a time of natural emergency. That is just one reason why I support Richardson for president.

http://www.dailykos….

Bill Richardson ordered New Mexico firefighters today to assist in bringing the devastating fires in Southern California under control. He noted, “Neighbors should help neighbors in their time of need.”

This is another illustration of Richardson’s leadership skills in operation. Richardson’s vision of neighbors helping neighbors, however, is not limited to domestic matters. Last week Richardson gave a well received speech in Iowa on the role the U.S. can play in improving the welfare of the planet and human race.

BIG-TIME Freedom Fighter!!!

“Rep. Pete Stark (D-Calif.), a member of Congress since 1973, acknowledged his nontheism in response to an inquiry by the Secular Coalition for America (www.secular.org ). Rep. Stark is a senior member of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee and is Chair of the Health Subcommittee.”

http://secular.org/n…

Hopefully, this will set a precedent for others to join Stark (and me since I am atheist too) in becoming open about their secular beliefs. Usually making an announcement like this is considered political suicide, so it will be interesting to see how Stark will fare in the future now that he “came out”.

(Amen…enough of the milquetoast! – promoted by SFBrianCL)

First and foremost, my heartfelt congratulations go out to Congressman-Elect Jerry McNerney, Democrat from California’s 11th congressional district, Lieutenant Governor-Elect John Garamendi, Secretary of State-Elect Debra Bowen (!!!), Attorney General-Elect Jerry Brown, Treasurer-Elect Bill Lockyer, and Controller-Elect John Chiang. I wish all of you the best of luck and hope that you will work hard and serve our state well!

Here is my post-mortem:

Governor: Of course I am disappointed in the outcome here, but I can’t say I’m surprised. After all, no California governor has been denied a second term since Earl Warren did that to Culbert Olson in 1942.

Arnold v.2007 will not be the same as Arnold v.2006; he will be much closer to v.2005. Be prepared for more of those “good ideas” that went down in defeat exactly one year ago. We will have our hands full in these next four long years.

To all my friends scared about the prospects of California turning red I say, “Worry no more. Just look at the down-ticket”. Arnold won handily and yet only pulled Poizner across the finish line with him. And Poizner himself faced a lackluster challenger in Bustamante (who REALLY needed to go!). If we can get a strong candidate in 2010 we can beat him!

Secretary of State: After weeks of anxiety, I can finally cheer and breathe a sigh of relief that Bowen pulled it out despite facing very steep odds, and that California will be painted blue in 2008!

California 11: To the Jerry McNerney team: WE DID IT!!! Grassroots support trumps Washington insiders and special interests. Party insiders feared Jerry was too liberal to win this pink-tinted district, but we proved them wrong! My sincere gratitude goes out to the voters of CA-11!!!

The props: I am thrilled that Prop 73 (er, I mean 85) failed again, by a slightly bigger margin than last year, and the atrocious 90 went down as well. The bad news here was that the awesome 87 and 89 went down and the atrocious 83 passed, though it is currently in court.

So, what can be made of all this? We are still a blue state (whew!), especially since John Chiang was relatively quiet the whole election and yet won the Controller’s race by 10, and DiFi, Brown, and Lockyer won by bigger margins than Arnold did. The Republicans do not have much of a bench here except Arnold and possibly Poizner unless we beat him in 2010. Democrats on the other hand have a relatively strong bench with Villaraigosa, Newsom, Núñez, Chiang, Bowen, and others. Even though we have a whole slew of good candidates to try for governor or Senate in 2010 and beyond, we still need to undergo a major overhaul. The governor’s race was a major wake-up call. We need to dump the milquetoast party insiders. Let’s take the party back! A good way to start is to appeal to the grassroots. A couple of fine Californians (the new SoS and CA-11 rep) have showed us such a way.