By Randy Bayne

The Bayne of Blog

Republican campaigns all over are starting to tank as Election Day approaches. California, long considered the land of “safe seats” because of the 2000 redistricting plan that basically secured the status quo for both parties, is no exception. The news is not good for incumbent Republicans.

Politico.com says even Dan Lungren is in danger of losing.

GOP Reps. John B. Shadegg of Arizona, Lee Terry of Nebraska, Henry Brown Jr. of South Carolina and Dan Lungren of California are all fighting for their political lives, a reversal of fortunes that has caught even the most astute campaign observers by surprise. [Emphasis added]

Recent polling by his challenger, Dr. Bill Durston, has the race for CA-03 in a virtual dead heat. Lungren leads 33% to 30% with a whopping 30% still undecided. Obviously, it is among these undecided voters that the election will play out. Lungren’s own polling, two done just after the Durston survey, show Lungren polling under 50%. The same polls show Durston at around 26%, leaving a high number of undecided voters as mail voting begins in the state.

This has concern the Lungren campaign. Incumbents who don’t break 50% in polling this close to Election Day tend to not do well. In other words, they often lose. The Republican Party is concerned. According to Swing State Project,

The GOP is publicly confessing to being worried about the challenges posed by Linda Ketner (SC-01) and Bill Durston (CA-03)? Either this is the most monumental of all head-fakes, or they’re looking up at a tsunami that even we at SSP are underestimating. Other names cited in the article as causes for concern include Lee Terry, Mark Souder (both victims of recent huge DCCC expenditures), Dana Rohrabacher, David Dreier, and Brian Bilbray, all of whom would be well behind a GOP firewall any other year. [Emphasis added]

Politico.com points to the toll the economy is taking and the high foreclosure rate in CA-03 as one reason for GOP concerns.

Two years ago, Lungren – who is completing his seventh term in Congress – beat physician and Vietnam War veteran Bill Durston by 21 points. But the economy has taken its toll, and Lungren’s district has one of the highest foreclosure rates in the country. In a newly released Democratic poll, Lungren leads Durston by just 3 percentage points.

Former GOP consultant Allan Hoffenblum said Rep. Dana Rohrabacher and other California Republicans, including Reps. David Dreier and Brian Bilbray, are also at risk.

As the economy continues its downward spiral, voters realize that Republicans have had charge of economic policy for most of the last eight years. They look at where they were when Bill Clinton left office and compare it to where they are now. It isn’t a pretty picture. As Barack Obama said the other day, people aren’t asking if they are better off than they were four years ago, now its are you better off than four weeks ago.

Perhaps we have come to the end of the era of voting against your own best interests. One can only hope. More certain is that the GOP is a party in decline and candidates with an “R” behind their name have no safe haven this time around.

By Randy Bayne

The Bayne of Blog

Just days after a poll by respected polling firm Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, and Associates showed Democratic challenger Bill Durston in a virtual tie with Congressman Dan Lungren for the 3rd Congressional District seat, Lungren’s campaign has released the results of two polls of their own. Unsurprisingly, both polls show Lungen with a sizable lead.

One survey, with a sample size of 400 registered voters in the 3rd Congressional District, showed Lungren with a 47.2 percent to 26.5 percent lead over Durston, an emergency room doctor from Gold River. That survey, completed Oct. 7, was done by pollster Val Smith and has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percent.

A second survey, completed on Oct. 9 of 300 registered voters in the district, gave Lungren a 45-25 edge. Moore Information did that survey, with a margin of error of plus or minus 6 percent.

Both campaigns are standing by the results of their own polls while they discount the results of the opponent’s.

The Lungren polls each have a rather high, 5% and 6%, margin or error. The Durston poll has a more reliable 4% error margin. A lower margin of error is generally indicative of better reliability.

Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, and Associates is a highly respected polling firm whose client list includes mostly progressive candidates, groups, and causes. One of the pollsters used by the Lungren campaign, Val Smith, recently did a poll for Tom McClintock showing him leading Charlie Brown in the 4th Congressional District race by 14 percentage points. Most other reputable polls show Brown in the lead. The other Lungren poll was done by Moore Information. Their clients are mostly conservative causes and candidates, including many state Republican parties, and such notable candidates as Richard Pombo.

Polls are only as good as the people doing the polling, the questions asked, the way the questions are asked, the universe of people being polled, and how that universe is defined. These kinds of polls are usually done to illicit particular results to help fund raising efforts and energize supporters. They rarely reflect accurately what can be expected at the polls.

If I had to draw any conclusions from these three polls it would be this. Lungren is not going to have as easy a time in the stretch as he did in 2006. Durston has picked up substantial support and Lungren has lost quite a number to the ranks of the undecided. General dissatisfaction with incumbents is hurting Lungren, as did his vote for the $700 billion bailout package. But, Durston has yet to really define who he is and why we should vote for him, other than he is not Congo Dan. That’s good enough for me and for Durston’s base, but on Election Day it isn’t likely to be enough to put him over the top.

Of significance is the fact that the Durston poll was done earlier — October 4 to 6. The Lungren polls were conducted Oct. 7 and Oct. 9, and were likely a knee jerk reaction in an attempt to discredit the Durston poll. Lungren only polled 300 in one and 400 in the other poll — one reason for the high margins of error. Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, and Associates asked questions of 500 people for the Durston campaign — a much more reliable sampling.

Very significant is that all three polls have Congo Dan with under 50% — 47% and 45% for the Lungren polls, and 33% in the Durston survey — which is usually very bad news for an incumbent. At this point in the election cycle, an incumbent polling under 50% is in serious trouble.

So, let me bottom line it. Both Durston and Lungren, as well as their supporters, will get the message they want out of these polls — good news about their respective campaigns. Reality isn’t so easy to determine in polls, however; and neither campaign should rest easy, particularly Durston. Lungren is in trouble, but probably not as much as these surveys indicate. This one looks like it is still Lungren’s to lose, but Durston could be the surprise candidate of 2008.

By Randy Bayne

The Bayne of Blog



In spite of a recent poll showing only 33% support for incumbent Congressman Dan Lungren, his campaign “is not convinced his candidate has anything to worry about.” Congo Dan is so sure he will win the 3rd Congressional District race that he missed the Asian Pacific Islanders Public Affairs Association (APAPA) forum over the weekend. The reason given was business in Washington, but Congo Dan did make it to a fund raiser in Murphys later that same day.

It was reported by supporters of Dr. Bill Durston, the Democratic challenger, that Congo Dan enticed people to the fund raiser with tickets to a Bonnie Raitt show at Ironstone Vineyards, writes Ben van der Meer.

Raitt, a well-known supporter of Democratic and left-wing causes, said at the concert that night that the Nov. 4 election was one of the most important in history – and told attendees to vote for Durston, an emergency room doctor and Democrat from Gold River, according to Durston’s campaign.

It is natural for an incumbent campaign to discount poll numbers – no matter how reputable the polling firm – that show the campaign tied with the challenger and I-don’t-know just one month out from election day with voting already started. Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin and Associates, who conducted the poll between October 3 and 4, is a very reputable firm, and Congo Dan should realize that these numbers indicate real attitudes or real voters. Of course, it is better for Dr. Durston that he doesn’t.

The national news and local impact of the mortgage and housing crisis, the stock market crash, and just the general financial situation should have incumbents across the board worried – particularly those who have sided with the Bush Administration over the years, as Congo Dan has done. Today, President Bush basically told Americans “don’t worry, be happy,” that everything will be fine. Easy advice when your headed out the door. The point, voter sentiment isn’t favoring incumbents. I don’t want to wander to far off my point, but wasn’t the so-called bailout supposed to fix everything?

When voters were told about Congo Dan’s vote for the $700 billion federal bailout of major financial institutions, and the contributions he has received from oil companies and banks, Durston’s numbers went up to 43 percent while Congo Dan’s remained steady at 34 percent.



Not only is Congo Dan in some stage of denial, but his campaign, if not he himself, is resorting to the kind of immature behavior indicative of an arrogant campaign believing it could not be defeated now facing the prospect of losing – avoidance and name calling. Congo Dan still refuses to face Dr. Durston in a one-on-one debate, and Lungren’s campaign is calling Dr. Durston a “knucklehead.” Here is the quote from Tim Clark, a campaign spokesman and strategist for Lungren, as recorded by Ben van der Meer.

“He’s doing what he needs to do to get attention, regardless of how true it is,” Clark said, before saying a second time, “Durston’s a knucklehead.”

Not bad on the big scale of things, but it does reveal just how much contempt Congo Dan has for Dr. Durston. Believe me, it is a lot. He won’t even talk to Dr. Durston and has avoided debating him this election cycle. In town hall meetings, Lungren avoids calling on Dr. Durston. The one time he did call on Dr. Durston, his was the only hand up for a comment and Lungren addressed him with utter comtempt and ridicule.

Admittedly, I started this campaign rather doubtful that Dr. Durston could prevail. But given recent events and the foolishness of the Lungren campaign, I may have to revise my earlier sentiments. Durston still has an uphill battle. There are a lot of undecided voters to convince, but they seem to be turning his way, and if Congo Dan stays on his present course they may just go Durston’s way. One thing is for certain – November 4 is going to be very interesting.

By Randy Bayne

Bayne of Blog

Recordnet.com is reporting:

Swing State Project, a Democratic-leaning online blog covering election races nationwide, recently identified three California Assembly races to watch – all involving portions of San Joaquin County – and calling them all toss-ups at this point.

In AD-10 they site the near equal registration numbers – a 2.04% difference, advantage Republicans – that have close from 6% since the 2006 primary election. The difference was only 1.97% in May but odd numbers from San Joaquin County skewed the 60-day report.

In AD-15 nothing is certain, but it looks like Joan Buchanan should come out on top. Still, this is one to watch and could be close.

In AD-26 there is a 1% Democratic advantage and the election should be a close one for John Eisenhut. The Republicans have a strong candidate with a known family name — Berryhill.

Each of these districts share something in common. All three include a portion of San Joaquin County. Why is this important? In spite of the rapid rise in Democratic registration throughout California, San Joaquin is the only county in any of these districts to experienced a drop in registration. As a matter of fact, about 4,000 voters, 3,700 of them Democratic, have dropped off the San Joaquin rolls since May, 2008.

Comparing reports on the Secretary of State’s Website, it was found that Republicans managed to increase registrations in San Joaquin County between May and September adding about 1,800 new voters. Over the same period, Democrats lost nearly 3,700, very close to the 4,000 total decrease county wide. Something doesn’t smell right, and it isn’t rotting fish in a drying delta.

With reports of “slamming” coming out of San Bernardino County, the CDP needs to get on this quickly. CA Democratic Party Region 7 Directory Gary Robbins and San Joaquin Co. Central Committee Chair Richard Blackston have already been informed, and San Joaquin should be added to the already started investigation.

By Randy Bayne

Bayne of Blog



Just hours after Barack Obama gave his historic acceptance speech of the Democratic Party nomination for the Presidency, John McCain is set to announce his pick for a vice presidential running mate. The news just came in: McCain has picked Alaska Governor Sarah Palin. She was on no one’s list of speculative veep candidates, and is very much a surprise pick.

Enough on McCain; I’m still hearing Obama’s speech from last night. The evening was spent in Mokelumne Hill with about 100 other Democrats from Calaveras and neighboring Amador Counties intently listening to Obama accept the Democratic nomination. Riveted to the big screen, the crowd seemed an extension of the 80,000 gathered at Mile High Stadium in Denver.

The Mokelumne Hill crowd would obviously be considered a disappointment to many, but in these two extremely conservative, heavily Republican counties, a crowd of 100 Democrats cheering on their Presidential nominee is significant. It says we are no longer hiding, we are no longer ashamed to stand up and declare we are Democrats. It says we cannot be ignored.

Senator Obama sent a surge of energy through us all. The people of the Mother Lode are working class people struggling to raise families amid a rapidly declining economy. Obama speaks to us. He understands, he knows, he has a clue, about the struggles we face. Obama knows that there are people, especially in rural America, who are drowning in the mortgage crisis, facing foreclosure, and losing their homes. John McCain doesn’t even know how many homes he owns.

Every day people where I live tell me they’re voting for Obama. Then, they tell me the’re “not even a Democrat,” but the’re voting for Obama because Bush and the Republican Party have failed them. We can’t endure one more minute of “them,” much less four more years, they say. It is time for change. It is time for Obama.

And now that the convention is over it is time to get to work. Let’s go win this thing!

A friend of mine took this picture. It seems to be indicative of changing attitudes in Amador County as more and more Republicans confess their preference for Barack Obama. Hopefully, we can get them down ticket as well.