Category Archives: Budget

Shortfall

A billion dollars is quite a lot for any one state to be short on monthly tax revenue, even a state as big as California.  This is especially true when you have a budget deficit to begin with, and those projections are being used to try and balance it.  The Governor often makes it seem like everything in the state is going great, but this sign (probably due to the slumping housing market) is ominous.  Meanwhile, home buyers in Cali are going deeper into debt, taking out mortgages with no down payment and not being able to keep up.

But never mind, it’s always sunny in the Golden State!

So Much for a Compassionate Governator

(Welcome to the post-honeymoon era. – promoted by blogswarm)

What’s going on here? I thought that Ahhnuld wanted to provide health care to poor children…
But now, he wants to cut welfare aid to these same kids. So they can go to the doctor for a check-up, but they can’t eat and they can’t have a roof over their heads? I really don’t get this. If this is “post-partisan cooperation”, then I’m not particularly impressed.

More after the jump…

So what’s going on here? I opened the LA Times this morning to find this:

The proposed $465-million reduction in California’s welfare budget came two days after the governor promised that his second term would feature “post-partisan” cooperation.

It was met immediately with resistance from Democrats, who expressed bewilderment that the governor would attempt to cut welfare aid to children in the same week his administration is expected to move forward with a plan to expand health insurance to many of the same children.

Wow, so much for a Governor with even an ounce of compassion for poor children! I guess he doesn’t really care about “post-partisan cooperation”, either! Why target poor kids like this? Sorry. but I don’t get it…
And neither do I get this:

“It’s ironic that the governor is proposing healthcare for poor kids while taking away their breakfasts,” state Senate leader Don Perata (D-Oakland) said of the cuts, which would affect more than 40,000 families. “Even Republican Gov. [Pete] Wilson, at the time he negotiated welfare reform, agreed that children should not suffer for the behavior of their parents.”

The plan alarmed advocates for the poor, who predicted that eliminating the cash payments of several hundred dollars a month would substantially increase the risk of homelessness for those families.

Schwarzenegger’s proposal also would eliminate this year’s cost-of-living increase for welfare recipients.

HUH??!! WTF??!! So it’s OK for poor kids to have health care, but not a place to live and food to eat. Again, I don’t get Ahhnuld’s “logic” here. Either we care about the well-being of these at-risk kids, or we don’t. Yes, yes, I understand that this could be Ahhnuld’s way of offering an olive branch to the wingnut GOPers in the Legislature…
But why sacrifice the needs of poor children, just so that there’s less “welfare spending” in the budget, just so that the wingnuts can be a little happier with this?

If this is what Ahhnuld meant when he talked about being “bipartisan”, then I don’t want any of this…
And I don’t think that all the California families living in poverty want it either.

(As always, this is cross-posted at my blog.)

Budget Deficit Gambling

(cross-posted from Ruck Pad)
Arnold has what I refer to as a “hope and pray” approach to the $5-6 billion structural budget deficit.  He refuses to either cut programs or raise taxes to fix it.  He is counting on revenues continuing to increase at high levels.  It has worked for the last year or so, but we may be on our way to serious trouble.  This particular problem is one that Dan Weintraub tracks pretty well.

The Department of Finance’s monthly revenue report today has an ominous number: general fund revenues are down $657 million in November from projections for the month. That’s a huge drop and, if it signals a trend, would be a disaster for the state and for Schwarzenegger’s efforts to balance the budget without raising taxes.

That is some damn scary stuff.

Finance, however, says they are thinking that most of the drop can be explained by one-time factors that don’t presage an economic shift that will result in lower revenues going forward.

The sales tax, for instance, was down $127 million for the month. But Anne Maitland, a revenue analyst for the department, says October sales tax payments came in higher than expected as taxes due on Nov. 1 came in early. The November number, then, represents the flipside. For the year, sales tax payments are very close to the forecast.

Corporate taxes were also down in November, $192 million below the projection. Much of that, Maitland said, was due to refunds being higher than expected, and some of those refunds were tied to the tax amnesty plans that brought in so much money over the past few years. Many firms paid up to beat those amnesty deadlines but still fought the judgments. Now some of them are prevailing and the money is going back out, but it is difficult for the analysts to predict months in advance when those refunds will be paid.

Predicting revenues is a lot like gambling.  They make pretty informed estimates, but it is not a precise science.

Another big hit came from the sale of unclaimed property bringing in less than expected in November.

I am no bonddad, but I wonder if this is directly related to the downturn in the real estate market.  If so, we should expect this to continue to be a problem in the months to come.

On the other side of the ledger, withholding for the personal income tax was very healthy, at $138 million above the projection of $2.5 billion. And that’s one sign that the economy is still going strong.

Bottom line: an eye-opening number, but not reason to panic. Yet.

Arnold’s approach to the budget is a classic example of the disfunction within the state legislature.  The Republicans, Arnold included, refuse to increase taxes.  The Democrats will hold the line against cuts to crucial programs.  The 2/3rds requirement for the budget means that the Arnold inertia wins, for he neither wants to increase taxes or cut programs.  This works as long as money keeps coming into the state.  If we see a downturn then we are in serious trouble.  We can’t borrow ourself out again.

EDITORIAL: A State EITC?

The Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) has been one of the most successful tax programs ever.  It rewards working, so it is hard for conservatives to kill it, and it provides help to those with the least.  So, as a progressive, it’s hard not to love. Even Arnold Schwarzenegger, whatever he may be, can support it.

The City and County of San Francisco attempted to provide a local match for the program, called the Working Families Credit. It was partially funded by private corporations, primarily H&R Block, and partially from City coffers.  The program was mildly successful, but there were some inherent problems with the program in that it was a city program and so you had to seek out a seperate form.  Also, H&R Block’s involvement was a bit…troubling given their problems with preying on the poor with Refund Anticipation Loans (RAL).

Despite the problems, the idea is a good one.  Many of these problems could be resolved by using a state-based approach.  And hey! Assemblyman Dave Jones has plans to introduce such a bill. (The full press release is over the flip).  This plan provides a 15% match of the federal EITC, a simple plan that is similar to the other 19 states that already have such a match.  It can provide up to $680, depending on your filing status.  It’s a great idea, but hopefully one that could be improved upon.

There are several ways to further optimize this program.  First, make Steve Westly’s Ready Return Program permanent.  Ready Return simplifies the tax return program by filling out most forms for taxpayers, especially lower income taxpayers who have generally simple tax returns. Ya, yeah, I know this is slightly off topic…but oh wait it’s not.  Ready Return would encourage low-earners to a)file b) get all the resources that our programs should provide to them. 

To go along with this, I encourage faster processing of returns for Ready Return filers that would provide faster refunds. This would discourage using high-cost tax prep services like H&R Block and the pernicious RALs.

Another reccomendation, which might be more challenging, is to focus on the cost of living.  Filers who live in more expensive locations (ie LA and SF) should receive more money than those in cheaper locales (ie Barstow, Bakersfield, etc.).  This would require some number-crunching, but would begin the long process of stopping the flight from our cities of all but the most wealthy.

However, as for Dave Jones’ bill…Let’s do it.  It’s a great idea.

Jones Proposes Tax Relief for Working Families

Sacramento – Calling the state’s high poverty level “unacceptable,” Assemblymember Dave Jones (D – Sacramento) today will introduce legislation that would implement a state-level earned income tax credit for California’s working families.  The measure, applicable to state taxes, would build on the existing federal Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), which is among the nation’s most successful anti-poverty programs.

“Every day, the vast majority of poor Californians get up in the morning and go to jobs where they work to lift themselves and their families out of poverty,” Jones said.  “The EITC is another tool for these hard-working families, boosting children and adults out of abject conditions and onto a path towards better health, education, and prosperity .  It’s time for California to join New York, Illinois, New Jersey, and all of the 19 states that have enacted their own versions of the EITC.”

Co-sponsored by the California Budget Project and the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now (ACORN), the bill would provide low-income workers with a tax credit pegged at 15 percent of their federal EITC.  For a family with two or more children making less than $36,350, the legislation would authorize a credit worth $680 per year.  For a family with one child, the maximum credit would be $412 per year.  Adults with no children could qualify for a credit of about $62.  The EITC is a refundable credit, meaning that a family can receive a refund even if they earn too little to face any tax liability. 

To streamline the administration of a state EITC, the bill is designed to “piggyback” on the federal credit, meaning it would parallel the federal program’s eligibility criteria and overall design.  The federal EITC has historically enjoyed strong bi-partisan support in part because it encourages work: the credit increases as earnings rise until it reaches a plateau and then gradually declines.  Studies have found that expansions in the federal program implemented between 1984 and 1996 account for more than half of the rise in employment among single mothers in that same period.  Between 1993 and 1996, the EITC provided the incentive to more than a half-million families to move from welfare to work.

The legislation also calls for a corresponding closure of state tax loopholes and unfair “tax expenditures” – special exemptions in tax law that benefit often narrow interests – to ensure fiscal neutrality.

A long-time advocate of the federal EITC, Assemblymember Jones has taken a leading role in reaching out to low-income residents of the Sacramento region to encourage them to take advantage of the credit.  This year, he organized the Sacramento Coalition for Working Families, a group dedicated to increasing the use of both the EITC and the Volunteer Income Tax Assistance Program (VITA), a free service the IRS provides to low and moderate income individuals who cannot prepare their own tax returns.

California’s 13 percent poverty rate exceeds the national average, and figures are even more stark among the youngest Californians, with nearly one in five children living in poverty in 2004.  Most families meeting the definition of “poor” ($19,806 for a family of four in 2005) are working, with a full-time worker in about 31 percent of poor families and part time workers in 39 percent. 

Thinking outside the box on Proposition 13.

I have an idea that I’ve been kicking around for years — I don’t think it was entirely my idea, originally, but I’ve honestly forgotten where I first got it from — that perhaps could cut the Gordian knot of the California budget process.  I suspect it would have to be passed through an initiative process (because of the supermajority thing in the leg), and the actual numbers to balance the budget would need to be filled in by some very talented finance folks.

If you’re curious, read the full post.  And let me know what you think.

I posted about this in comments on a (somewhat wingnutty) diary about Prop 86.  I am probably going to vote for the tobacco tax, but I have to admit that I dislike our habit, in California, of tying specific revenue streams to specific programs.

JSW points out (rightly) that the reason we do this (and indeed, the reason I’ll vote for 86) is that we can’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good.  A sane tax structure is not on the table, in California, because of Prop 13 and the huge supermajority requirement to do anything serious to reform the tax code.

So.  How about we abolish property taxes entirely?  That would make Prop 13 a dead letter.  We can replace the revenue stream with a zoning-based land tax (a low per-sqft rate on residences, a small credit for maintaining inspected public green space, and a higher rate for commercial and industrial space) plus a fairly steep real-estate capital-gains tax (to discourage speculation and capture the state’s share of the increase in value of the state’s land — land increases in value because of the society around it, not because of anything inherent to the soil! — which previously was captured through periodic assessment for property taxes).

This change would need to be phased in (having the property tax base rate continuing to rise at the Prop 13 rate, but with a falling multiplier discounting it away, while the new taxes were phased in at the same linear rate, and with the multipliers for the two tax systems always adding up to 100%).  This perhaps should be done over as much as 30 years (the life of a typical mortgage).  The point is to avoid creating windfall profits and losses, like Prop 13 did — it gave a huge benefit to older people who already owned homes, and disadvantaged younger people who wanted to buy later.  It continues to operate as a punishment to families that want to move, or that are first-time home-buyers.  If you’ve bought a house in CA since the early ’80s, you’re a victim of Prop 13, not a beneficiary.  Possibly you could do the phase-in somewhat faster, maybe as little as ten years.  In any ten-year period, there’s very likely to be a period where advantageous refinancing is available (due to standard cycles in interest rates), and that probably will help people deal with any change in expectations about the cash flows associated with real estate ownership.  In any case, as I said to begin with, there are details to nail down.

I haven’t ever applied any sort of rigorous legal or financial analysis to this.  But I figure, maybe it’s time I try to get it in front of people who actually know more about the tax code.  Any takers?

California Blog Roundup, 7/3/06

Today’s California Blog Roundup is on the flip. Teasers: Phil Angelides, Arnold Schwarzenegger, CA-50, CA-04, CA-11, Richard Pombo, John Doolittle, Brian Bilbray, corruption, environment, budget, initiatives, salmon, other environment, clean money.

More Initatives. Oy.

Governor’s Race

Bilbray / CA-50

Paid-For Pombo / CA-11

15% Doolittle / CA-04

  • Abramoff pays Julie Doolittle. 15% Doolittle, devout anti-gambling religious Mormon helps out Abramoff’s Indian gaming clients. Move along. No corruption here. 15% Doolittle can’t be bought. He’s an upright man, a family man, a religious man.
  • Dump Doolittle points us to an Auburn Journal piece on the bases of support for the two CA-04 candidates.
  • So here’s how our federal government “works” after 12 years of Republican majority rule: citizens pay our taxes, federal representatives ignore us and our local governments until our local governments use our taxes pay lobbyists, lobbyists give the federal reps campaign donations, fancy dinners, junkets, and jobs, and then our taxes sometimes come back to some of us (less a percentage off the top) on that basis. The Republicans: standing for the right to get rich in government since at least 1994.

Other Republican Paragons

Environment

Reform

Legislature

Miscellany

California Blog Roundup, 6/28/06

Today’s California Blog Roundup is on the flip. Teasers: Phil Angelides, Arnold Schwarzenegger, budget, CA-04, CA-11, Richard Pombo, John Doolittle, corruption, clean money, energy, environment.

Read This One

    Julia Rosen explains the core problem of bad Republican governance isn’t incompetence — it’s Republicans.

Governor’s Race

Budget

Paid-For Pombo / CA-11

15% Doolittle / CA-04

Other Republican Paragons

Environment

Reform

Miscellany

Budget axes child healthcare increases…for now

The Dems agreed to exclude the $23 million that Schwarzenegger had included in his May rewrite of his proposed budget.  However, it looks like the Governator agreed to work with them over the summer to get additional funding for the county health insurance programs.

With four days to go before the end of the fiscal year, legislative leaders and the governor reached agreement Monday on a state spending plan that they predicted would be in place by the July 1 deadline for the first time in six years.

The roughly $131-billion deal would pay back billions the state borrowed from schools in recent years to close budget shortfalls, as well as accelerate repayment of billions of dollars in bonds the state sold to fund transportation and other projects. … The deal includes a reduction in community college fees, new arts and physical education initiatives in public schools, a modest expansion of child care and other programs for the poor and a substantial boost for law enforcement.

Left out of the deal are the funds the governor and Democrats were hoping would be used to expand healthcare programs for low-income children. GOP lawmakers refused to support such an expansion because it would make health insurance available to children who are here illegally. Democrats received a commitment from the governor to work with them on expanding health insurance for low-income children later in the summer. (LA Times 6/27/06)

Now, getting the GOP to agree to additional health care spending in this area seems to be a difficult position.  Once again the problem is that the Reps have decided that they must toe this line in the sand, and a very artificial line at that.  The only people this is hurting are children?  Are we prepared to make children the pawn in some national pissing match?  It seems ludicrous and mean spirited…because it is.  The Democrats have been working in earnest to see this budget through to completion, all the while trying to deal with the GOP veto over the budget working to thrwart the will of the people.

So, my congratulations for completion of the budget, but the work is not yet complete.  We need to increase funds to the health insurance programs.  For more information on the California Budget, take a look at California Progress Report.  Frank’s going to be in Sacramento today reporting on the budget process.  Also, for background try the California Budget Project.

Budget Deal Reached

A budget deal has been reached amongst the four legislative leaders, Nunez, Plescia, Perata, Ackerman.

The “Fab Four” … released a statement saying they have a budget deal:
“We have reached a tentative agreement on a balanced, responsible budget today after several months of productive discussion. It reflects the values of both parties and moves our state forward. We hope to have a vote prior to July 1st.” (SF Chronicle Politics Blog 6/26/06)

This is just coming in.  When I hear more details, I’ll try to prepare a bit of an analysis.  The big stumbling block is regarding the child health insurance county-level programs, some of which cover undocumented immigrants. No word as to what happened with the Governor’s $23 million covering those programs in his June rewrite of his budget proposal.

So, here’s more info on the deal.  No word about the health care dollars yet.

The four offered no details about the record spending plan, but it is widely expected to mirror the draft budget Schwarzenegger proposed in May.
***
The overall spending plan is expected to be about 12 percent higher than in the current fiscal year, reflecting the state’s rebounding economy.

The billions in unanticipated tax revenue enabled lawmakers to follow Schwarzenegger’s lead, funding popular programs while building reserves to appease conservatives who have been critical of the state’s deficit spending. The budget is not expected to raise taxes.

Spending on education, the largest slice of the budget, will increase from $50 billion this year to more than $55 billion next year, under a deal Schwarzenegger struck last month that also ended a two-year feud with the state’s largest teachers union. (Press Enterprise(AP) 6/26/06)

Why do those kids always want health care? Schwarzenegger v the GOP

Don Perata says that he will drop the Dem plan to increase health care eligibility, but that’s not enough for the GOP.  Dick Ackerman’s going for the kiddy-jugular:

Democrats are dropping a proposal to extend state health insurance programs to all California children, including undocumented immigrants, a key stumbling block in negotiations over a state budget, Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata said Monday.

But Republicans said they still wouldn’t vote for the $131 billion spending plan because it also includes $23 million that GOP Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger put in to shore up existing county health programs covering children who are in the United States illegally.
***
“We did not want the budget to become hung up on that particular point,” said Perata, D-Oakland. “This is about children. They should not be a chess piece in this game.”

The Democrats’ change of heart leaves the governor aligned with them but on the opposite side of the issue from members of his own party.
***
Senate Republican leader Dick Ackerman of Irvine called Perata’s announcement Monday “a step in the right direction, but we also need to deal with the $23 million that the governor put in.” (SacBee 6/20/06)

Before it was all a bit hypothetical, because Schwarzenegger had the “it’s too expensive” line.  Now, the $23 million is his own doing.  He thought it was affordable in his budget rewrite, it is still affordable now.  How important does the governor find the children of this state? The $23 million goes to county health programs which fund increases for all children, not merely immigrants.

Apparently, it’s not that important for Ackerman and the GOP.  We’ll see how important it is for the Governator.  I already submitted a question about it in the Governor’s “Ask Governor Schwarzenegger” webcast.  The webcast begins at 10:30, so get your questions in quickly!