Category Archives: Jerry Brown

Down Ballot Field Poll: Good News for Dems

The down-ballot Field Poll came out this morning, with pretty good, although unsuprising news for Democrats in statewide races. All 6 down ballot Dems are leading, and only SoS and Insurance Commissioner are really close right now.

However, these numbers should be taken with more than just a grain of salt. As shown in the table below, many voters have no opinion of either or both candidates. So much of this poll is really based on mere party affiliation. I suppose that it’s good to know that a D in a statwide race of unknowns still stakes you to a lead.

See the flip for the full table of information from the Field Poll. I’ll also put this in the extended of the Poll HQ.

Candidate Field Poll 8/1/06

Lt. Governor

Poll Support Favorable Unfavorable No Opinion
John Garamendi (D) 48 46 17 37
Tom McClintock (R) 38 40 17 43

Attorney General

Poll Support Favorable Unfavorable No Opinion
Jerry Brown (D) 54 45 36 19
Chuck Poochigian (R) 33 9 7 84

Secretary of State

Poll Support Favorable Unfavorable No Opinion
Debra Bown (D) 38 10 6 84
Bruce McPhereson (R) 35 19 9 72

Treasurer

Poll Support Favorable Unfavorable No Opinion
Bill Lockyer (D) 52 43 16 41
Claude Parrish (R) 27 9 5 86

Controller

Poll Support Favorable Unfavorable No Opinion
John Chiang (D) 38 13 5 82
Tony Strickland (R) 27 11 8 81

Insurance Commissioner

Poll Support Favorable Unfavorable No Opinion
Cruz Bustamante (D) 43 38 43 19
Steve Poizner (R) 39 7 8 85

The Statewide Winners and Also-Rans

Well, the election last night had its ups and downs, but I think overall, it was an exciting night.  The Democratic voters elected a strong slate heading into the general election.  We’ll take them one by one.

Governor

Phil AngelidesPhil Angelides has officially claimed victory over Steve Westly. ( KGO7 has the victory speech video.) The campaign was mired in muck, but Angelides was ultimately able to emerge. I would have appreciated a clean campaign, but now the focus needs to shift to Schwarzenegger.  He’s already started his campaign, so we need to redouble our efforts and ensure that we can proudly claim Governor Angelides in the fall.

Lt. Governor

This was something of a nailbiter early, but John Garamendi’s lead grew throughout the night. I sincerely hope Jackie Speier will be back on the statewide stage.  I think throughout the campaign she looked like something of a rising star.  Garamendi was helped along by his allegations of improper insurance company harassment.  Garamendi will be taking on Tom McClintock, and you can’t help but be pretty confident about our chances there.  The California GOP does pretty poorly when they choose their idealogues, and Garamendi will continue that trend in November.

Secretary of State

This one wasn’t really that close.  I think ultimately it looked more like Debra Bowen ran a more focused campaign.  She primarily stuck to the issues that are important to the SOS position.  Deborah Ortiz’s campaign never really got any momentum.  Bowen has a formidable challenge in the primary in the person of incumbent, but unelected, Bruce McPherson, a so-called moderate.  Bowen has been campaigning on the issues of voting machines, and knows the issues.  This could be an important race, so keep an eye out for it.  It will likely fly below the radar for a while.

Controller

John Chiang and Joe Dunn ran fairly clean campaigns, and for that I am thankful.  Hopefully Dunn will be back, I think he has a lot to offer the state in terms of electability and vision.  Chiang will take on Tony Strickland, a corrupt GOP former assemblyman and leader of the Norquist-inspired California Club for Growth.  Thank you GOP for not nominating the more electable candidate, Abel Maldanado.

Treasurer

Current AG Bill Lockyer ran unopposed.  He will face anti-tax loon and BOE Member Claude Parrish.  Once again, thank you GOP for not nominating the more electable candidate, Keith Richman.

Attorney General

Jerry Brown won solidly, mostly based upon his name recognition.  Rocky Delgadillo ran a good campaign, but he just ran head-on to a popular former governor.  Again, I hope Rocky will be back.  I think he has a lot to offer the state.  Chuck Poochigian will be hard-pressed to seriously challenge Brown.

Insurance Commissioner

Current Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante easily defeated Kraft foods heir John Kraft.  The general will be an interesting race against wealthy businessman Steve Poizner.

Field Poll: 82 Shifting down, Speier Up

The down-ballot Field poll was released this morning. So, I’ll run down the numbers, starting with the Constitutional offices.

Lt.Gov

Jackie Speier has moved into a small lead over John Garamendi, apparently all those billboards aren’t paying off for him like he would have hoped.  Liz Figueroa has continued to slide into oblivion.  Currently, Speier has 30%, Garamendi 25%, and Figueroa 8% with 37% undecided. It was thought by some that Figueroa would act as a spoiler for Speier, but that doesn’t seem to be playing out.  Figueroa has only 7% of women and only 5% in Speier’s and Figueroa’s home region of Northern California.  She is a bit stronger in Southern California at 10%, but this is probably just due to Latino identity politics.  Speier’s large lead amongst women might push her over the top in a primary that is dominated by women.  She currently leads 33-21-7 on that figure.  On the GOP Side, Tom McClintock is running unopposed.

Attorney General

Jerry Brown‘s name recognition, (and a Time Magazine feature story didn’t hurt on that account), without much in the way of campaign spending, has allowed him to retain his large lead over Rocky Delgadillo.  Currently Brown has 51%, Delgadillo 24%, and 25% are undecided.  I would go deeper into the numbers, but Brown seems to be dominant in all the crosstabs.  On the GOP side, Poochigian is running without siginificant opposition.

Controller

This race has flown under the radar, with a huge 63% undecided.  Joe Dunn is clinging to the slimmest of leads with 19 points, while John Chiang has 18.  Unsuprisingly, Dunn is doing better in Southern California (21-14) and Chiang better in Northern California (25-15).  This one will probably get a lot fewer people voting on it that the gov race, and name recognition just might push a state senator over a BOE member.  But, at this point, it’s too close to call.  And on the plus side, both campaigns in this race have run great campaigns.  I’m excited to see either man win.  On the GOP side, Strickland has a 43-32 lead over Maldanado.

Treasurer

Bill Lockyer is running unopposed.  On the GOP side, Keith Richman is leading small government loon and current BOE member Claude Parrish at 18-17 with 65 undecided.

Secretary Of State

Deborah Ortiz narrowly leads Debra Bowen at 25-19.  However, this might be merely identity politics as 65% is undecidided.  Ortiz seems to be holding her home region of Sacramento and NorCal (28-15), but with undecideds so high, it’s hard to glean much from the poll.  And another thing, am I totally missing something, or does Ortiz not have a campaign website?  That would be pretty crazy, and if so I would definitely have to publicly give my support to Bowen.  C’mon folks, technology is a big part of that job, get with the 21st century.  McPherson is running unopposed for the GOP nomination.

Prop 82

Prop 82 has been crashing in support recently.  And the news today is not good either.  Currently it’s losing by a margin of 41 Yes to 46 No.  The scare tactics used by the No on 82 folks seem to be working.  And I must admit, I’ve heard several very progressive people admit that they are a bit nervous about voting for the program.  I think at some level people just don’t like instituting such a large program via direct democracy.  Also, part of this is the additional taxes.  Those on the right jsut hate government, those on the left seem to want to use those taxes for other purposes.  However, I think it’s going to be a close race for 82.  The SacBee notes that:

Despite the new poll numbers, supporters say they believe they will win. They expect to do well among Democrats, who will be more likely to go to the polls to vote in the gubernatorial primary and other hotly contested Democratic races, said Nathan James, a spokesman for the Yes on 82 campaign.

“We always knew this election was going to come down to the wire,” James said. “We have a number of advantages going into this election.”

But opponents of Proposition 82, including the California Chamber of Commerce, have been pushing the arguments that the program would be too costly and would potentially drive private preschools out of business.

Pamela Zell Rigg, president of the California Montessori Council, said opponents were hoping voters would turn against the measure as they learned more about it. (SacBee 6/3/06)

So, obviously turnout will be key in all these races. But for Prop 82, where both parties get to vote and Ds are skewed in favor of 82(53-33) and Rs are skewed against 82 (25-65), the “who” of turnout will be key.  If many Republicans stay away from what is an otherwise uninteresting primary election for them, it might allow 82 to pass.

Primary choices: I’ve voted

Cross posted at Happening-Here

Well, I’ve voted in California’s June primary. That’s not really surprising: since I am ordinarily trying to get out somebody’s vote, I always vote absentee. The last thing I usually have time to do on Election Day is vote. This time I really will be absent, out of the country.

So yesterday I pulled out the two huge paper ballots and did the deed. Here are some of my votes, local first, some with an explanation.

Local San Francisco candidates and ballot measures
Democratic Central Committee: these contests always feel like voting for high school student council. Serious aspirants spend a fair amount of money on signs, even occasionally mail. The outcome does matter, at least a little; I’d much prefer to have a DCC that pushes Nancy Pelosi to the left than just have party hacks. But I know half the candidates and many aren’t my favorite people. I’m not going to tell the blog who I voted for; suffice to say, I vote for people I like and don’t worry too much about it.

Prop. D, Laguna Honda Hospital Zoning Changes: this seems to be the one local measure that is getting money spent on it. I’ve had slick mailers from both sides. Proponents claim it will prevent the strapped Department of Public Health from dumping dangerous crazy people into the city-run old age home. Opponents claim it is a cover for zoning changes that would allow nursing home development on properties all over the city. Hard to tell, but using the ballot to change zoning seems an ass-backwards way of protecting senior citizens. I said NO.

Federal Races
I had the opportunity to vote in the primary for Nancy Pelosi and Diane Feinstein whose opponents I had never heard of. I didn’t. Nancy sometimes does pretty well as leader of the House minority, but she is way to the right of her constituents. Diane was a micro-managing, dictatorial mayor and as a Senator is way too accommodating to Bush. Her sympathy with immigration restriction is noxious. Forget ’em; they don’t represent me and don’t need me.

Miscellaneous State Races
My Assemblyman, Mark Leno, has done a way better job in Sacramento than I hoped for. This sometimes happens when we send what we see here as a centrist to the state capitol; they become the effective left of the Democrats. He is unopposed.

Prop. 82: Mandatory Pre-School: I voted for it, but I am not entirely happy about it. Because we’ve made raising enough in taxes to pay the state’s bills almost impossible, we keep using Mickey Mouse funding mechanisms to attain good ends. We are soaking the very wealthy for this one and that is fine with me — but someday we have to fix the real problem, to allow the government to plan, budget and tax rationally.

State Constitutional Offices
Attorney General: I have argued often that who fills this office is one of the most important choices Californians make. That person gets to define what the ballot title will be on all these initiatives we constantly vote on (instead of having a functioning government). So I wished very much I had an appealing Democratic choice to vote for. But I didn’t. I went with Jerry Brown, knowing that I’ll probably regret electing him someday. Jerry was a strange, wishy-washy governor, making some great appointments but swaying with breeze on the crucial tax limitation measures that began to plague us during his term in office. He might have made a fun Senator — I wanted to see him as Senator Moonbeam and was sorry he was beaten for the office in 1982. His rebirth as Mayor of Oakland since 1998 has not been a triumph of progressivism — the guy’s idea of brave innovation was to launch a military academy for the city’s failing public schools.

Unfortunately, Brown’s opponent, LA prsecutor Rocky Delgadillo, is running as a law enforcement hawk who doesn’t worry about civil liberties. This is not the year for that attitude. I took Brown, holding my nose.

Secretary of State: this one was easy. Deborah Bowen cares about making sure that California voting machines create an auditable paper trail. Computer voting systems could be a great innovation, but anyone who has actually seen how local departments of elections muddle through can’t be comfortable unless very strong controls and auditing provisions are in force. Bowen understands that.

Lieutenant Governor: I voted for Jackie Speier. She has made a real effort to win consumer privacy protections for financial information through state law (rules now endangered by national Congressional Republicans).

Governor: I would dearly love to defeat Gov. Arnold in the fall — after all, I spent most of last year working to give him trouble. But I don’t believe either Steve Westly or Phil Angelides has what it will take to overcome his star power. They just aren’t very interesting. Unfortunately, in the top ranks of California’s rather comfortable Democratic party, we don’t do charisma. The unlamented Gray Davis won office twice by being the lesser evil. He demonstrated the weakness of this approach by falling in the recall; lesser evils don’t create any friends who fight for them in tough times. Angelides and Westly also just don’t light up a room with any kind of vision.

Since I don’t think either of these guys is more electable than the other, my vote for a gubernatorial candidate became a free vote: I could simply pick the one who came closer to me ideologically. That wasn’t hard. Angelides got the nod because, with baby steps, he is willing to approach the need to raise someone’s taxes, if only the richest Californians. Our refusal to tax is undermining the ability of California government of govern. The guy who edges toward reality on taxes gets my vote.

The AG Race: David and Goliath?

Everybody knows Jerry Brown, well 80% anyway (according to the Field Poll), but what about Rocky Delgadillo?  Well, according to the same Field Poll, he’s sitting at 16%/18% Favorables to unfavorables.  That leaves a very large 66% No opinion rating.  That is quite high (although not as high as GOP candidate Poochigian’s shockingly high 83%), leaving him a lot of ground to make up.

But Delgadillo relishes this role:

With just five years in public office, the little-known lawyer is taking on one of the state’s best-known politicians, Oakland Mayor and former California Gov. Jerry Brown. “I’ve said from the beginning I’m an underdog,” Delgadillo said. “Californians are looking for somebody who is not afraid to take on the big fight.”

Barely known outside his hometown, the 45-year-old father of two is running far behind Brown in the contest for the Democratic nomination to face Fresno Republican Sen. Charles Poochigian in November.  Brown was leading Delgadillo by more than 3-1 in a Field Poll released Wednesday. Ace Smith, Brown’s campaign consultant, said Brown has $4.4 million in his campaign account, while Delgadillo’s spokesman said his campaign has $3 million.(SacBee 4/23/06)

Delgadillo is well known in LA, but it’s going to be hard for him to challenge Brown in the Dem heavy Bay area.  Brown is still quite popular up here and has a large war chest to lean on.  With only about 6 weeks to go before the primary, Delgadillo has his work cut out for him.  However, Delgadillo has shown his ability to work from behind in the LA City attorney race, so it would be unwise to count him out.