Next week Bush will be in San Jose, attending one of his “public, all republican” forums.  The exact details of his visit have yet to be released, however as of this diary we do know that he will be here on April 21st.

Tentative Time and location:

BUSH in San Jose, CA:

Participates in panel on the American Competitiveness Initiative at Cisco Systems 5:10 PM

Location:
170 West Tasman Drive
San Jose, CA 95134

Stay tuned to find out exactly where and what time he is going to be in San Jose, and if you can, plan to join us to “welcome” Bush to the 10th largest city in the nation.

More…

If you are on any email lists of Bay Area folks, please send them a heads up, we want to make sure to show Bush just how much he is “liked” in CA.

Remember that his visit to San Jose will most likely be followed by the nation media, we want the nation to see us out against Bush in as big as numbers as possible.

If you have any questions you can email me at: sanjoselady at gmail dot com.

Thanks, and see you next week!

(The reasons for this promotion should be self-evident – promoted by jsw)

A SUSA poll released last night has Busby at 47%!! They previously had her at 45% (7-10 days ago I think?). The link:

CA-50 SUSA Poll

This sounds a little high, I don’t want anybody to be crushed tonight if she doesn’t get this high. But at a minimum it means that Datamar, who had her at 40.7%, was not itself a little high (though we pretty much knew that already). I’m predicting 44-46%.

New poll (warning–PDF link) by Datamar has Busby at 40.7, however, Datamar has been showing Busby lower than other polls all along. They are sampling at 54% Republicans, 33% Democrats, however absentee ballots turnout so far gives a demographic mix of 46% and 37% (see this post at mydd analyzing the previous Datamar poll). So if that ratio holds, Busby will do better than indicated in this poll.

Other random news items below the fold.

• Kaloogian tags every car in every church parking lot with a flyer yesterday (Sunday). Thread commenters claim many pastors took them down and tossed them before services let out. (Sadly, many probably didn’t…)
• Pro-Busby GOTV is off the hook!! Nearing 60,000 door hangers, and moveon’s phone banking had to get a new phone list because they exhausted the numbers they’d planned on doing.

• NRCC attacks Busby for not knowing about education. Busby, a long time SCHOOL BOARD MEMBER, over some of the best schools in California, invites him to come take a tour of the Cardiff schools. Nice. (PDF link)
• Speaking of NRCC. A bunch of ordinary citizens’ names were on a list that scrolled across the screen of the NRCC’s Busby attack ad, simply because they donated to Busby, and work at a company that happens to have some government contracts (unrelated to their work). Some have already sent letters to stations airing the ad saying that they must stop showing the ad or possibly face legal action. This is harrassment of ordinary citizens just for exercising their rights under the law!
• A poll by Datamar out over the weekend didn’t rotate the names. Funny quote–the NCTimes quoted the pollster as saying that the practice of name rotation is “one of those myths from the 19th century.” Whatever.

(cross-posted from dkos, some edits)

5 days until the special election to replace convicted felon Randy Duke Cunningham in CA-50.  And it’s been an amazing couple of weeks.

First, simultaneous polls (internal and independent) indicated that Francine Busby (D) was the top candidate in the field of 14+, by a 3-1 margin over her closest Republican opponent.  Both pegged her support in the high 30s.  Not enough to win the seat without a June 6 runoff, but definitely respectable. 

Next came the excellent poll results from SUSA, the most accurate pollster of the 2004 elections, which indicated that Busby’s support stands at about 45% of likely voters.  Then, in what should not have even been a surprise, came Kaloogiangate–the fake Iraq photos that may have brought enough exposure to this race to increase Busby’s support to 50%+.

You may have seen the Kaloogian’s Big Adventure video generated by geoschmo at dailykos as an “entry” in the Chevy Tahoe ad contest.  Streaming version can still be viewed on the corporate web site at this link.

Don’t know if it’s of use to anyone, but I captured the video and turned it into Windows Media (.wmv) and QuickTime (.mov) versions.

Windows Media (2.6 MB)

QuickTime (6+ MB)

I’m in Colorado, but thought I’d pass this along for anyone interested in downloading.

Other downloadable “entries” in the contest can be found here.

 

cross-posted at skippy as well as a literal cornucopia of other community blogs.

gov. ah-nold trots out his first campaign ad for re-election:

sacramento – gov. arnold schwarzenegger’s political team on monday debuted its first re-election ad of 2006, focusing mostly on the governor’s accomplishments of two years ago…

the 30-second ad, called “tomorrow,” appears to be a montage of san francisco cityscapes and stock footage from the 2003 recall election. a narrator cites schwarzenegger’s early-term successes in cutting the deficit, overhauling the worker’s compensation system and reducing california’s vehicle license fees. it closes with a shot of schwarzenegger’s face and says his “leadership is making california work again.”

we have seen this ad, several times, and the problem with it is simple:  after two years of leading california, there’s little for him to crow about.

more, after the jump:

the ad asks us to remember back in the days before ah-nold took office.  remember the car tax tripled?  yes, we do.  remember the deficits?  uh, no.  we don’t actually deal with the deficits, so, no, we don’t remember them.  remember california being literally in the dark?  yes, remember some blackouts, but we also remember the enron trial (for market manipulation) currently going on.

the ad asks states that ah-nold lowered the car tax and reduced the deficits, and created 400,000 new jobs.

we remember the car tax.  the deficits, well, we’ll take his word on that.  the 400,000 new jobs?  in a state of over 35,800,000 people, that’s a wee bit over 1%.

ok, let’s review.  he lowered the car tax.  and…uh…he gave 1% of california a job.

the problem with ah-nold’s new ad is that, at least for skippy international, when it asks us to remember the last two years, we remember a special election that cost the state over 50 million dollars, and which the california voters used to soundly defeat every one of ah-nold’s propositions.

we remember that ah-nold, who ran on a campaign that painted incumbent gray davis as a serial fund-raiser, has raised more money while in office than any previous california governor.

we remember ah-nold trying to force the nurses of this state to take on a ratio of 6 patients to a nurse, more than the state law currently allows, for patient safety reasons.

and the car tax.  we remember the car tax.

the only viable, tangible thing that ah-nold can point to is that he lowered the car tax.  and, as intoned by the overly sincerely, intense narrator in the commerical, it seems even more inconsequential.  so trivial, in fact, that we would swear the ad was an snl parody.

although something seems to be working, as the latest public policy institute poll finds ah-nold with a significant lead over his two rivals, state treasurer phil angelides, and steve wesley, the favorite of mrs. skippy:

gov. arnold schwarzenegger holds a solid lead over either of his democratic challengers in a head-to-head battle in the november election, at least among those who have a preference, but 30 percent of likely voters remain undecided, according to a non-partisan poll released today…

one-on-one, schwarzenegger holds an eight percentage point advantage over former ebay executive and current state controller steve westly and a 12-point lead over treasurer phil angelides.

if gov. ah-nold’s re-election team came to us for advice, we’d tell them, hey, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.  but do something about that silly tv ad.

addendum: speaking of last year’s special election (“special in the same sense, apparently, as in “special olympics”), a california court has ruled that gov. ah-nold’s campaign committee

Bay Area

Howard Dean in Oakland This morning w/ Video

April 1, 2006 Thom K in CA

(This suggests a couple interesting possibilities: either Howard Kaloogian is a liar and thinks the voters in CA-50 can’t tell the difference between Iraq and Turkey or Howard Kaloogian is an ignorant ideologue and he can’t tell the difference between Iraq and Turkey. – promoted by jsw)

Howard Kaloogian (R) has posted a photograph on his campaign website which he claims to have recently taken in downtown Baghdad, to show how “calm” and “stable” the city was during his visit.

Check out the photo under the fold. I am no photographic expert, but to me, this does not appear to be a photo of Baghdad (or even Iraq) at all.

Here’s why I think this photo was not taken in Iraq:

1)  The signs are all in Roman script.  (the signs that read edo, 2.Noter, etc.)  Where’s the arabic?

2)  The couple holding hands in the front, right side of the picture.  First, the fact that they are walking down the street holding hands makes me think this is not from Baghdad.  Second, look at the woman’s top (shirt).  It has spaghetti strap sleeves (shoulders exposed) and is awfully tight for Iraq.

Am I crazy, or is this not of Baghdad at all?

Check out the photo on Kaloogian’s site here:

http://www.kaloogianforcongress.com/…

This is extremely important because Kaloogian is claiming that Iraq is much more calm and stable than most Americans believe.  His direct quote: “We took this photo of dowtown Baghdad while we were in Iraq.  Iraq (including Baghdad) is much more calm and stable than what many people believe it to be.  But, each day the news media finds any violence occurring in the country and screams and shouts about it – in part because many journalists are opposed to the U.S. effort to fight terrorism.”

Just another reason to support Busby on April 11 and June 6.

Remember to support her here:

http://actblue.com/…

and check out her campaign site here:

http://www.busbyforcongress.org

crossposted from The Political Dogfight

In his second DKos diary, former President Jimmy Carter was answering questions that had been posted in his first diary about his son Jack’s run for the Nevada Senate seat. Amazing…just like you would expect….he came back like a Southern Gentleman and answered those he found most important or interesting to him.

One question was what a Blue State resident to do to help the elections in a Red State. Essentially he said that he had been asked by a schoolgirl why she should be a Democrat. He asked her the following questions and suggests we do the same to everyone who questions our cause:

• I asked her a series of questions that all bloggers should use in
  discussions:
• Do you prefer peace or war?
• Do favor tax breaks for the
  richest Americans or working families?
• Would you rather destroy the
  environment or protect it?
• Do you approve the torture of prisoners?
• Do
  you think our government should secretly spy on your family?
• Do you
  think we should abandon every nuclear arms control agreement negotiated
  since Dwight Eisenhower was president?
• Do you approve of your part of
  the national debt now being $28,000 and increasing by $300 each month?
• Do you think we should meld religion and government?

She gave me the
Democratic answer to all the questions, and I believe that most
Americans will agree, no matter if their state is red or blue.

The Big Dog agrees with President Carter completely. Like my Easy Points series I wrote last year where every issue was poll validated and every issue was supported by a majority of American across party lines, it is this kind of forward thinking, forward thinking that we need to carry in our minds or on a small wallet sized card so we get the words right.

Few really want what we have today. It is just so bloody hard for anyone to admit that 15-20 year of beliefs have lead them and our nation to the near collapse of our freedom.

Is that an overstatement? Yes…most likely. But I hate the ‘most likely’ part of it.
Think of these and memorize them if you can…then the next time someone starts to disagree ask them if you can simply pose a series of easy questions and get their honest answers. It could be one of our most powerful tools.   TBD

Thanks to sdpolitics blog where I found this. It is a new poll for CA-50.

Highlights: Francine Busby has the highest ‘favorable’ rating by far at 38% (next highest is Bilbray at 23%), as well as the lowest ‘unfamiliar’ rating at 20%. Hey, not bad for the candidate the San Diego Union-Tribune dismissed as just a “soccer mom.”

More highlights: Roach’s ‘unfavorable’ is the highest of the R’s at 24% (Busby’s ‘unfavorable’ is 26%, but as the only Dem in the race it is understandable that some hardcore Duke Cunningham Republicans are venting against her).

Check out the whole thing, I don’t want to plagarize too much here! Note: Be sure not to miss the full crosstabs by education, party, etc.

(parts of this are crossposted from dkos)

(And now State Assembly from Nathaniel. – promoted by jsw)

Following up on my State Senate races analysis earlier today, here it is for the Assembly. Since all 80 Assembly seats are up every election, it would be a little nutty to go through every one, so I’ll just do open seats and vulnerable incumbents.

Read below the fold…

AD-04 (Gold Country): Tim Leslie (R) is term-limited; the heavy favorite is Placer County Supervisor Ted Gaines.

AD-06 (Marin/Sonoma): Joe Nation (D) is term-limited and running for CD-06 against Lynn Woolsey; the frontrunner is Marin County Supervisor Cynthia Murray, a moderate, while more lefty candidates trail narrowly.

AD-11 (East Bay): Joe Canciamilla (D) is term-limited; is the winner his wife, Laura, or Contra Costa County Supervisor Mark DeSaulnier?

AD-12 (San Francisco): Leland Yee (D) is leaving to run for SD-08; the frontrunner is definitely San Francisco Supervisor Fiona Ma.

AD-16 (Oakland): Wilma Chan (D) is term-limited; the major candidates are Sandre Swanson, Ronnie Gail Caplane, and John Russo. The primary is competitive, with Russo leading in money, Caplane leading in connections, and Swanson leading in political clout backing him.

AD-17 (Northern San Joaquin Valley): Barbara Matthews (D) is term-limited; the Democratic candidate is Cathleen Galgiani, while Republicans are running Gerry Machado. The district leans Democratic, but is no lock for Galgiani.

AD-18 (Alameda County): Johan Klehs (D) is term-limited and running for SD-10; Bill McCammon and Mary Hayashi are competing for the nomination, with Hayashi a slight favorite.

AD-24 (Santa Clara County): Rebecca Cohn (D) is term-limited; Santa Clara County Supervisor Jim Beall is the favorite.

AD-25 (San Joaquin Valley): Dave Cogdill (R) is term-limited and running for SD-14; Tom Berryhill is his heir.

AD-28 (Central Coast): Simon Salinas (D) is term-limited; Salinas Mayor Anna Caballero should be the favorite to succeed him.

AD-32 (Bakersfield and the Desert): Kevin McCarthy (R) is headed for Congress (CD-22), so there is a rush on the GOP side to succeed him. No clear favorite yet.

AD-38 (North L.A. County & Ventura County): Keith Richman (R) is term-limited and running for Treasurer; the successor is Santa Clarita City Councilman Cameron Smyth.

AD-39 (San Fernando Valley): Cindy Montanez is leaving to run for SD-20, and meanwhile that term-limited Senator, Richard Alarcon, is running here.

AD-41 (Ventura and L.A. Coast): Fran Pavley (D) is term-limited; Calabasas Mayor Barry Groveman and Santa Monica School Board Member Julia Brownley are the major candidates.

AD-42 (West L.A.): Paul Koretz (D) is term-limited; his successor will either be businessman Mike Feuer or former West Hollywood Mayor Abbe Land.

AD-43 (Burbank/Glendale/Pasadena): Dario Frommer (D) is term-limited; the Democratic primary is close between Burbank School Board Member Paul Krekorian and Glendale City Councilman Frank Quintero.

AD-44 (San Gabriel Valley): Carol Liu (D) is term-limited; the primary is competitive but favors La Canada Mayor Anthony Portantino.

AD-45 (Los Angeles): Jackie Goldberg (D) is term-limited; the primary is chaotic but favors Kevin De Leon, who is supported by Speaker Nunez.

AD-48 (Los Angeles): Mark Ridley-Thomas (D) is leaving to run for SD-26; will his successor be Anthony Willoughby or bishop Edward Turner?

AD-49 (San Gabriel Valley): Judy Chu (D) is term-limited and running for the Board of Equalization; her husband, Monterey Park City Councilman Mike Eng, should be favored.

AD-51 (Gardena/Inglewood/Hawthorne): Jerome Horton (D) is term-limited and running for the Board of Equalization; Gardena City Councilman Stephen Bradford could be the favorite.

AD-55 (Long Beach/Carson): Jenny Oropeza (D) is term-limited and running for SD-28; either Community College Trustee Warren Furutani or Long Beach City Councilwoman Laura Richardson will win.

AD-56 (Norwalk/Whittier/Buena Park): Rudy Bermudez (D) is leaving to run for SD-30; the favorite could be teacher Tony Mendoza.

AD-57 (Pomona Valley): Ed Chavez (D) is term-limited; his wife, Renee, could be next.

AD-58 (La Puente/Downey/Montebello): Ron Calderon (D) is leaving to run for SD-30; his brother (?), Charles, seems the frontrunner.

AD-59 (Inland Empire): Dennis Mountjoy (blaucgh) is finally term-limited; Anthony Adams looks like the leader of the Republican pack.

AD-61 (Inland Empire): Gloria Negrete McLeod (D) is term-limited and running for SD-32; that Senator, Nell Soto, is running here as well.

AD-62 (Inland Empire): Joe Baca Jr. (D) is leaving after one term to run for SD-32; his brother Jeremy should win here.

AD-65 (San Jacinto Valley): Russ Bogh (R) is term-limited; Jim Ayres looks like his successor.

AD-66 (Riverside & San Diego Counties): Ray Haynes (R) is leaving to run for the Board of Equalization; Kevin Jeffries has the money and the conservative backing. He should win.

AD-67 (Orange County): Tom Harman (R) is term-limited and running in the special election for SD-35; either his wife Dianne or Orange County Supervisor Jim Silva will win.

AD-69 (Orange County): Tom Umberg (D) is term-limited and running for SD-34; Santa Ana City Councilman Jose Solorio and Claudia Alvarez are both running.

AD-72 (Orange County): Lynn Daucher (R) is term-limited and running for SD-34; Yorba Linda City Councilman Michael Duvall and Brea City Councilman Marty Simonoff are facing off for the Republican nomination.

AD-74 (Northern San Diego County): Mark Wyland (R) is term-limited and running for SD-38; either Martin Garrick or Marie Waldron may succeed him.

AD-77 (San Diego County): Jay La Suer (R) is term-limited; is it Nancy Lee Beacham or Joel Anderson?

AD-79 (San Diego County): Juan Vargas (D) is term-limited and running for CD-51 against Bob Filner; former Chula Vista City Councilwoman Mary Salas looks like the successor.

So all of these open seats are fairly safe for the incumbent party. And incumbents that could be vulnerable like Nicole Parra (D) in AD-30, Guy Houston (R) in AD-15, or Bonnie Garcia (R) in AD-80 seem to be getting free passes. The only competitive Assembly race I see so far is Shirley Horton (R) seeking reelection in AD-78; she barely won reelection in 2004 with Kerry winning AD-78, and is facing George Gastil this year. So is Gastil a good candidate? Don’t know. I just know that California is most definitely gerrymandered in favor of incumbents. No way state legislators are THIS popular; so popular they can’t be unseated without term limits.