Change continues as map-related changes continue to settle
by Brian Leubitz
Wally Herger’s new district, CD-01 is not really a toss-up district. It leans Republican pretty heavily, with a 43-31 Republican registration advantage. Herger has never really been a real power broker of the House, but he has won reelection by at least 15 points since his first election in 1980. But, he has been there for a while, and at 66, he’s deciding to hang it up.
Herger is your typical rural conservative Congressman, and will likely be replaced by another typical rural conservative, state Sen. Doug LaMalfa. It is hard to imagine too much will change policy wise, except maybe LaMalfa might be a little more cautious about calling a self-described “right-wing terrorist” as a great American. Not because LaMalfa won’t agree with the sentiments, but you know, he probably saw Herger get stung by that one.
Some other Congressman are considering retirement as well. Jerry Lewis (R-Redlands) is now in a toss-up, tilt Democratic seat that he may not wish to fight out at the age of 77. Others might still be coming in the next month or so.
On the Senate side, Bob Herzberg, who still draws Willie Brown’s ire for falling down on the job on the term limits measure as Speaker, is mulling a run for state Senate against Fran Pavley in the newly drawn 27th district. Of course, that is only if the current maps hold for the June election, as there is still substantial doubt. Sen. Steinberg has already endorsed Pavley, an incumbent used to running in a more Dem-friendly seat.
While the 27th will still lean Dem with a 6 pt reg advantage, it also could end up with something of a fight. Tony Strickland, who also lives in the new district, is expected to run for the seat of retiring Elton Gallegly’s CD-26 in Ventura County against a field of candidates that has not yet really distilled into anything cohere. Asm. Cameron Smyth has been rumored to be considering the SD-27 seat as well. Quite the merry-go-round.
Anyway, Herzberg, a friend of the good government moderates and a co-chair of California Forward, will run to the right of Pavley. The question is how this will work with the Top-2. If Pavley is able to build a coalition of progressives, and there is a strong Republican (Smyth??), she could be in a strong position to be in a one-on-one with the Republican. If no strong Republican gets in the race, and she’s in a one-on-one with Herzberg in November, she would be in more trouble. Either way, the Ventura County senate race just got a lot more interesting (and annoying.)
The merry-go-round has to stop at some point, but until the uncertainty about the Senate maps ends with some resolution from the Supreme Court, don’t expect any real resolution.