Two hottest California GOP seats in 2014

by Brian Leubitz

I’ve been away from blogging for a while, in case you missed the radio silence. While I can’t make any firm commitments, I’m going to try to be a bit more active here, so make sure you stay tuned and keep watching your RSS feeds, facebook feed, etc.  As a kickoff to the year, let’s take a look at two of the GOP House seats in play this year.

1) CA-21, where freshman David Valadao is in a Cook lean Republican seat after defeating John Hernandez 58-42 in 2012. 2014 isn’t likely to be a stronger Democratic year, but Valadao could be looking at a very strong challenger in one of Cosmopolitan Magazine’s 20 Women to Watch in 2014, Amanda Renteria.

The former teacher is running to represent California’s Central Valley in the House, a Democrat challenging the Republican incumbent. She was a staffer first for Senator Dianne Feinstein, and then, under Senator Debbie Stabenow, the first Latina chief of staff in Senate history. She turned down a position as chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to focus on her campaign. (Cosmopolitan)

Yes, that is that Cosmo, but the full article of women to watch in 2014 is a good read. (There is one other Californian, Kamala Harris, for whom I have done some work.) She has a wealth of experience in public service and is clearly qualified for the job, the question is whether she can make the transition to political work. If she can raise the money needed for a robust campaign, this could be a very interesting race.

2) Down in San Bernardino (mostly), Gary Miller has his hands full in a lean Democratic seat. As David Atkins pointed out yesterday, Top-2 foiled the Democrats as the votes were split between a number of candidates, leaving two Republicans in the general election. While the candidate field is still flexible, that seems unlikely to happen again. At least unlikely if there is a bit more cooperation all around, but there is still a big field gearing up for a general election.

The full list on Around the Capitol is a little disheartening on the top-2 front:

Pete Aguilar (Democrat) – Mayor, Redlands

Danny Tillman (Democrat) – Trustee, San Bernardino Unified

Eloise Gomez Reyes (Democrat) – Attorney

Joe Baca (Democrat) – Former Member of Congress

However, as of now, there isn’t a second Republican in sight. If one does file before the deadline, this four way matchup could be a slow motion repeat of 2012. If a Democrat is able to get into the general election, Miller will be a top nationwide target. He has a somewhat tricky relationship with ethics and isn’t really all that popular.

Reposted from ieprogressive.com

This is a first in series of conversations to explain why Democrats and Progressives shouldn’t support Redlands Pete Aguilar to represent the 31st Congressional District. As I have researched this candidate, I have grown increasingly concerned about his position on issues, the shadiness of his dealings, and the associations he has made.

Reason: He is a Blue Dog.

As anyone who has read my posts, I despise the Blue Dog Coalition (AKA the Blue Curs) for unprincipled stands on important issues. Mr. Aguilar has shown by words and deeds that he will follow this mold by unilaterally caving before the debate has begun. In addition, he has the support of other prominent Blue Curs such as Rep. Joe Baca and Rep. Steny Hoyer, the leader of the pack. This coalition takes advantage of their safe position to enrich themselves, while playing smoke and mirrors with those they represent.

Reason: No Principles  

As a Redlands city councilman, Mr. Aguilar has had chance after chance to prove his Progressive credentials, but instead chose not to:

2008

Aguilar said he supported the proclamation because it was supporting the concept of the living wage and not enforcing it in any way.

“If it were binding, I wouldn’t have been supportive of it,” Aguilar said Wednesday. -SBSun Nov. 20, 2008

This kind of attitude is inherent in the Blue Dog faction. They say good things Democrats and Progressives want to here, but when it comes time to vote, they lack the intestinal fortitude to vote with conviction.

2010

Mr. Aguilar backed Big-Box stores and supported Measure O. Measure O would have dismantled an already existing Wal-Mart on Redlands  Blvd. leaving it to be a blighted area where vandals and vagrants can have free reign. In addition, this would have created another abandoned Wal-Mart on Highland Ave. as customers from that area overlap with the proposed Super Wal-Mart. All this for Sales-Tax Chickenfeed:

Councilman Pete Aguilar said the City Council opposes Measure O because it would inhibit the amount of sales,property and other tax coming into the city and prevent the expansion of services like police and fire, he said. -SBSun May 8, 2010

New District Would Have Been a Toss-up

by Brian Leubitz

As I mentioned earlier this week, Jerry Lewis (R-Redlands) was mulling retirement. That announcement came today, just hours after the young Mayor of Redlands, Pete Aguilar, announced he was tossing his hat in the ring.

Rep. Jerry Lewis (R-Redlands), dean of California’s GOP congressional delegation and a fixture in Golden State politics since Ronald Reagan’s governorship, on Thursday announced he would  retire when his term expires, further shaking up the state’s Washington representation.

“After months of consultation with loved ones and family, my wife Arlene and I have decided to retire from public life,” he said in a statement. Lewis becomes the sixth member of the state’s 53-member House delegation who will be retiring or running for another office. (LA Times)

The district has a 4 point Democratic registration advantage, and Latinos make up 35% of the district. But, this is still a swing district if the Republicans can come up with a strong candidate.  Some of the neighboring incumbents, Gary Miller chief among them, have been considering this district as well.  With Lewis out of the picture, there could be a number of possible scenarios arising in the next few days.