Tag Archives: Gravel

Announcing Choices for Working Californians: Plus Primary Poll

(crossposted from Working Californians)

We want “Choices” to be your one-stop-shop for tracking the 2008 Presidential candidates on key quality-of-life and economic security issues. Why? Because our polling shows these will be key to determining voters’ choices for President, along with the dominant issue of Iraq. But thus far, likely voters report hearing strikingly little from the candidates on anything other than Iraq.

The site should be a two-way street — a place for voters to track the candidates, and a place for the candidates to speak directly to voters about core quality-of-life issues that so many voters rank as their greatest concerns. So we’re engaging the campaigns to encourage them to provide Californians with their plans for quality education, economic security & good jobs, the environment, energy & and sustainability, and health care.

To start, you can read about the strategic research, see the pollster’s two memos — the issues and the horse race.

You will see statistics from that poll sprinkled throughout the site.This week we are just rolling out the Democratic candidates, in conjunction with the CDP Convention this weekend.  Next week, the Republicans will be released.

It may have a bug or too and we are working on getting rid of that scroll bar right now, but poke around.  Click on a candidate’s name and you will get four choices of issues up top to go in more depth.  Some candidates are talking a great deal about Californian’s top issues, others barely at all.  Enjoy! Leave any bugs in the comments, or hit the contact page.

Mark Mellman conducted a fabulous poll and an even better memo, complete with graphs on likely Democratic primary voters in California.  Error margin is +/-4.9%.  Overview:

Our just completed statewide poll shows Hillary Clinton with a 19 point lead in the California Democratic primary. Despite Senator Clinton’s lead, however, the race is far from over. Her advantage is based importantly, but not completely, on two malleable factors: her higher name recognition and the belief that she would be the strongest general election candidate. She is the best known contender, but Obama and Edwards are more popular among Democratic primary voters who know them. Furthermore, a plurality (27%) of Democratic primary voters would support Barack Obama’s candidacy if their first choice candidate were no longer running in the primary. There is room for other candidates to break through to the California Democratic primary electorate between now and February 5, 2008; the race is very much still up-for-grabs.

The fat lady has not sung. There is much greater detail in the memo, but here is the graphical representation of the candidate’s favorability rankings.

Here are the straight up numbers:

Hillary Clinton 38%
Barack Obama 19%
John Edwards 17%
Richardson 4%
Joe Biden 4%
Mike Gravel 2%
Dennis Kucinich 1%
Chris Dodd 1%

Clinton’s lead is slightly greater (41%) among those paying very close attention to the primary, while Edwards and Obama tie for second place with 18% each. However, among those paying only somewhat close attention, Clinton’s support slips slightly to 36% while Obama’s support jumps to 25%, and Edwards receives 16%. Democratic primary voters who are not closely following the election are the least supportive of Obama, offering him just 13% of their vote, compared to 38% to Clinton and 17% to Edwards.

The race is far more competitive among voters who are familiar with all three top-tier candidates. Among these voters, Clinton’s total drops to 34%, while Obama’s support increases to 24% and Edwards’ support rises to 20%; just 10% of these most knowledgeable voters are undecided. This provides further evidence that part of Senator Clinton’s lead is based on her higher name recognition, an advantage that could disappear as primary day approaches.

Other interesting tidbits: Clinton has strong support from Californians who are highly concerned about jobs.  Obama gain support as voter’s second choice and demonstrates room to grow.  Go read the polling memo for all of the juicy details.  One more pretty chart.