Tag Archives: Electoral College

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August 22, 2007 Blog Roundup

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Jerry, Jerry, Jerry…

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Arnold Schwarzenegger

NYT: Hey Arnold, Come Out, Come Out, Wherever You Are

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Today the New York Times weighs in with an editorial about the right-wing Electoral College power grab, and in fairly bold language excoriates it.

The Electoral College should be abolished, but there is a right way to do it and a wrong way. A prominent Republican lawyer in California is doing it the wrong way, promoting a sneaky initiative that, in the name of Electoral College reform, would rig elections in a way that would make it difficult for a Democrat to be elected president, no matter how the popular vote comes out. If the initiative passes, it would do serious damage to American democracy.

The editorial goes on to explain the damage this initiative would cause, rightly calling it a Republican power grab and explaining how their goal is to fool the public into giving away the election in the name of “reform.”  Obviously written before the news of the competing ballot initiative came to light, there’s a perfunctory paragraph approving of the idea of the National Popular Vote.  But the concluding paragraph calls out the Governor to show his true colors on this issue:

Leading Republicans, including Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, have been silent about the initiative to split California’s electoral votes, but they should be speaking out against it. The fight isn’t about Republicans vs. Democrats. It is about whether to twist the nation’s system of electing presidents to give one party an unfair advantage. No principled elected official, or voter, of either party should support that.

Most Republican politicians aren’t principled, but Arnold at least fashions himself to be.  He should be asked about this at every opportunity until he gives a satisfactory answer.

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August 21, 2007 Blog Roundup

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A Competing Initiative With The Right-Wing Electoral College Power Grab

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A lot going on for a Tuesday in August.  Dan Morain at the LAT has the latest story:

Democrats proposed an initiative today aimed at having California embrace the movement to elect presidents by popular vote.

The initiative also is designed to head off a Republican effort to wrest away California’s electoral votes. Republican consultants are proposing a separate initiative to change California’s winner-take-all system of awarding its 55 electoral votes. Under the Republican measure, electoral votes would be awarded based on how congressional districts vote, an idea that could benefit the Republican nominee.

If the competing Democratic and Republican measures make it to the ballot next June, California would become a battleground over the electoral college system. The state has 55 electoral votes, more than any other state, and more than 10% of the 538 electoral votes nationally.

Chris Lehane announced the competing initiative at a press conference today.  And the initiative has been filed with the Attorney General.

I should add that there was another poll out today on this issue, by Rasmussen, which showed that the right-wing Electoral College power grab fails badly once people are given information about it’s implications, but that polling on a national popular vote concept is pretty favorable.  Numbers on the flip:

The proposal being pitched in California would award one Electoral Vote to the winner of each Congressional District along with two Electoral Votes for the statewide winner. In a theoretical sense, 45% of voters nationwide think that’s a good idea. Thirty percent (30%) disagree while 25% are not sure. However, even that tepid level of support dissipates when voters learn that a change in California could significantly increase the number of Republican Electoral Votes. Once that is factored into the equation, support drops to 31% and opposition increases to 43%.

It’s interesting to note that Republican support for the measure barely increases when told of the potential benefit to their own party. That may be due to a sense of fairness or a nagging realization that the same thing could happen in other states where the GOP would lose votes. Forty-five percent (45%) favor the concept in theory and 48% favor it after learning how it would impact the results in California. Among Democrats and unaffiliated voters, support plunges dramatically once the electoral implications of a change in California are explained.
Overall, 54% of voters would like to get rid of the Electoral College and have the winner of the popular vote become President. Thirty percent (30%) disagree. Democrats strongly support this approach while Republicans are evenly divided. Women are more enthusiastic about it than men.

I’ve been advocating for the National Popular Vote plan for some time.  If the Electoral College were enacted after the 14th Amendment, it would be found unconstitutional.  Every election in our system is majority-rule except for the one for the highest office in the land.  Californians are disenfranchised every year as they watch small states like Wyoming get an outsized portion of the electoral vote.

The GOP spin was predictable:

Kevin Eckery, spokesman for the GOP measure, said the Democratic-backed measure would leave Californians with little or no voice in national politics.

“If you ignore the congressional districts, there would be one big overwhelming national vote,” Eckery said. “What matters in L.A. or what matters in Santa Monica, won’t matter. It will be just one vote thrown into the mix.”

Um, what’s wrong with one big overwhelming national vote for a national office?  And did what matters in Santa Monica and LA matter in 2004?  2000?  1988?  That’s a ridiculous argument.

This is getting very, very interesting.

Uncategorized

Poll shows work needed to save Californias electoral vote

by Randy Bayne
x-posted at The Bayne of Blog

A new Field Poll was released today showing most Californians are in favor of an initiative to divide the electoral vote along congressional district lines. Currently, along with 47 other states, California awards all of its 55 electoral votes to the statewide winner.

Under a proposal, which could be on the June 2008 ballot, California’s electoral votes would be awarded by congressional district. Had this been in place in ’04, George W. Bush would have received 22 of California’s electoral votes to John Kerry’s 33. Bush could have lost Ohio and other state and still have won the election.

While this plan might make sense if all 50 states adopted it, it makes no sense to dilute California’s vote by joining Maine and Nebraska, the only states that award electoral votes in this manner. Between the two of them, Maine and Nebraska account for only nine electoral votes – hardly enough to sway most presidential elections.

According to the Field Poll,

The results show that voters initially support the idea of allocating California’s EVs on a district level by a 47% to 35% margin.

The results change slightly when voters are begin to understand what the effect would be.

After voters are told of the political implications of the change, opinions become somewhat more divided, with those backing a changeover to a district-by-district allocation method outnumbering those favoring winner-take-all by a 49% to 42% margin. Opinions are highly partisan, with 70% of Republicans endorsing the changeover to a district-by-district allocation method. Democrats and non-partisans, by contrast, favor keeping the current winner-take-all approach but by narrower five-to-four margins.

There are two ways to view this poll.

“It shows that without much (campaigning) … there’s a gut-level notion that this is the fair way of doing things,” said Kevin Eckery, a spokesman for Californians for Equal Representation, a committee recently set up to push the measure. [SFGate.com]

And, as I said earlier, it might be a “fair way of doing things” if everyone, all 50 states did it the same way.

On the other side, Democrats, myself included, see it as a grab for at least some of California’s coveted electoral votes. And we are well aware of the Republican party’s penchant for stealing elections.

“Republicans are in disarray nationally right now. And in California, they aren’t even treading water. They’ll do everything they can to steal the White House in 2008. Our job is to make sure that we take it seriously and do everything we can to kill it,” said Roger Salazar, a spokesman for the California Democratic Party. [SFGate.com]

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August 19, 2007 Blog Roundup

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Dems Building War Chest For Right-Wing Power Grab

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(They have something of a website up now too, at FairElectionReform.com. – promoted by Brian Leubitz)

Some major funders are preparing for battle over this cockamamie electoral vote initiative being pushed by GOP lawyers:

Leading Democrats are uniting with Hollywood producer Stephen Bing and hedge fund manager Tom Steyer to oppose a California ballot proposal they fear could hand the 2008 presidential election to the Republican nominee […]

In what is shaping up as an important subplot to the 2008 race, a political committee is being formed by Steyer that will raise money – possibly tens of millions of dollars – to defeat the GOP-backed idea.

The committee is being supported by Sens. Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer, San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and Democratic leaders in the Legislature.

The proposal is a “power grab orchestrated by the Republicans,” Feinstein and Boxer said in a joint statement. It’s “another cynical move to keep the presidency in Republican control.”

Democrats were scheduled to announce formation of the committee, Californians for Fair Election Reform, on Thursday.

This is tens of millions of dollars that ought to be going to candidates or local GOTV efforts.  The Republicans have already won the battle through embarking on this stubborn and cynical kamikaze maneuver that is doomed to failure.  But if they want to play this way, fine.  This will certainly raise progressive turnout for the June primaries, which is something we all should be thinking about.

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August 14, 2007 Blog Roundup

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Uncategorized

Right-Wing Electoral College Scheme Gets National Attention

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It’s an old joke in L.A. that nobody here knows about a local story until it makes the New York Times.  Well, then by now, they’ve all read about this attempt by GOP lawyers to change the way California’s electoral votes are apportioned and hand the 2008 election to the Republicans.

When state Democratic leaders from around the country meet this weekend in Vermont, the California chairman, Art Torres, expects to be peppered with the sort of questions that have been clogging his in-box for weeks.

What is this about Republicans trying to change the way Electoral College votes are allocated in California? Is there a countereffort by Democrats in the works? What does it mean for presidential candidates?

Torres has a couple quotes in the piece, but what interested me is a preview of the messaging that will be used to sell this scheme to the general public.  It actually mirrors what every Democrat in the Legislature was saying in the run-up to changing the Presidential primary date…

Far more potentially significant in the near term, however, is a recent move by the lawyer for the California Republican Party to ask voters in a ballot measure to apportion electoral votes by Congressional district. With numerous safe Republican districts around the state, this change could represent roughly 20 electoral votes for a Republican candidate who would otherwise presumably lose the entire state, which has been reliably Democrat (thanks for the slur, New York Times! -ed.) in recent presidential elections.

“We think it is the most effective way of having California count,” said Kevin Eckery, a spokesman for the ballot effort, the Presidential Election Reform Act. “Candidates love California in the spring when they come out to raise money. But after that, as long as California is not in play, it tends to be ignored.”

They’re going to use a message of fairness and making California count.  That’s going to be attractive to a low-information voter, and millions will have to be spent to counter it. 

According to the Times piece, Eckery’s group is fundraising right now, and it will probably take a few million dollars to get the initiative on the June ballot, including about half a million for polling.  That’s a low bar; and that’s why it is so crucial that we get the word out immediately about this effort to steal the vote.  Building a war chest is less important than using some CDP money to define what this initiative would represent – a piecemeal solution to a problem that would virtually guarantee a Republican successor to George Bush.  This is not something to attack with nuance; the goal is to make it so unpopular that any effort to put it on the ballot would be a suicide mission.

Arnold Schwarzenegger, Blog Roundup, Environment, Health Care, Prisons

June 29, 2007 Blog Roundup

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It’s been a while, but there’s a California Blog Roundup on the flip. Lots of health care coverage, some land use, water worries and environmental coverage, and a fair bit about the atmosphere in the legislature.

If I missed a blog post that should have been here (and it’s a liberal or lefty post), feel free to promote in the comments.

Wow, there’s a lot of
health care posts

Land and water

Federal Representatives
and Elections

Other State Issues