Tag Archives: Liz Figueroa

Jerry Brown

Field Poll: 82 Shifting down, Speier Up

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The down-ballot Field poll was released this morning. So, I’ll run down the numbers, starting with the Constitutional offices.

Lt.Gov

Jackie Speier has moved into a small lead over John Garamendi, apparently all those billboards aren’t paying off for him like he would have hoped.  Liz Figueroa has continued to slide into oblivion.  Currently, Speier has 30%, Garamendi 25%, and Figueroa 8% with 37% undecided. It was thought by some that Figueroa would act as a spoiler for Speier, but that doesn’t seem to be playing out.  Figueroa has only 7% of women and only 5% in Speier’s and Figueroa’s home region of Northern California.  She is a bit stronger in Southern California at 10%, but this is probably just due to Latino identity politics.  Speier’s large lead amongst women might push her over the top in a primary that is dominated by women.  She currently leads 33-21-7 on that figure.  On the GOP Side, Tom McClintock is running unopposed.

Attorney General

Jerry Brown‘s name recognition, (and a Time Magazine feature story didn’t hurt on that account), without much in the way of campaign spending, has allowed him to retain his large lead over Rocky Delgadillo.  Currently Brown has 51%, Delgadillo 24%, and 25% are undecided.  I would go deeper into the numbers, but Brown seems to be dominant in all the crosstabs.  On the GOP side, Poochigian is running without siginificant opposition.

Controller

This race has flown under the radar, with a huge 63% undecided.  Joe Dunn is clinging to the slimmest of leads with 19 points, while John Chiang has 18.  Unsuprisingly, Dunn is doing better in Southern California (21-14) and Chiang better in Northern California (25-15).  This one will probably get a lot fewer people voting on it that the gov race, and name recognition just might push a state senator over a BOE member.  But, at this point, it’s too close to call.  And on the plus side, both campaigns in this race have run great campaigns.  I’m excited to see either man win.  On the GOP side, Strickland has a 43-32 lead over Maldanado.

Treasurer

Bill Lockyer is running unopposed.  On the GOP side, Keith Richman is leading small government loon and current BOE member Claude Parrish at 18-17 with 65 undecided.

Secretary Of State

Deborah Ortiz narrowly leads Debra Bowen at 25-19.  However, this might be merely identity politics as 65% is undecidided.  Ortiz seems to be holding her home region of Sacramento and NorCal (28-15), but with undecideds so high, it’s hard to glean much from the poll.  And another thing, am I totally missing something, or does Ortiz not have a campaign website?  That would be pretty crazy, and if so I would definitely have to publicly give my support to Bowen.  C’mon folks, technology is a big part of that job, get with the 21st century.  McPherson is running unopposed for the GOP nomination.

Prop 82

Prop 82 has been crashing in support recently.  And the news today is not good either.  Currently it’s losing by a margin of 41 Yes to 46 No.  The scare tactics used by the No on 82 folks seem to be working.  And I must admit, I’ve heard several very progressive people admit that they are a bit nervous about voting for the program.  I think at some level people just don’t like instituting such a large program via direct democracy.  Also, part of this is the additional taxes.  Those on the right jsut hate government, those on the left seem to want to use those taxes for other purposes.  However, I think it’s going to be a close race for 82.  The SacBee notes that:

Despite the new poll numbers, supporters say they believe they will win. They expect to do well among Democrats, who will be more likely to go to the polls to vote in the gubernatorial primary and other hotly contested Democratic races, said Nathan James, a spokesman for the Yes on 82 campaign.

“We always knew this election was going to come down to the wire,” James said. “We have a number of advantages going into this election.”

But opponents of Proposition 82, including the California Chamber of Commerce, have been pushing the arguments that the program would be too costly and would potentially drive private preschools out of business.

Pamela Zell Rigg, president of the California Montessori Council, said opponents were hoping voters would turn against the measure as they learned more about it. (SacBee 6/3/06)

So, obviously turnout will be key in all these races. But for Prop 82, where both parties get to vote and Ds are skewed in favor of 82(53-33) and Rs are skewed against 82 (25-65), the “who” of turnout will be key.  If many Republicans stay away from what is an otherwise uninteresting primary election for them, it might allow 82 to pass.

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Speier internal polling

( – promoted by SFBrianCL)

Good and bad news for Jackie Speier.  Her own internal polling has very similar results as the Field Poll released last week. 

If that wasn’t bad enough, her own pollster had almost identical numbers, giving Garamendi a 32 percent to 22 percent lead.(SFGate Blog 4/24/06)

Garamendi has been on the last seven statewide ballots (correct me if I’m wrong), so the fact that he is better known should be no surprise.  At this point, that is what polling is all about in the LT. Gov race.  We aren’t talking about a position that most Californians are considering that much.  Most Cal Dems couldn’t tell you any difference between the three candidates.  Also, Speier is leading the money race with over $2 million in the bank.

And finally, Figueroa and Speier are poaching on each other’s power base in the Bay Area.  That won’t change, but it is something that should be considered.

So instead of just accepting the lnumbers, Speier’s pollster went on to try to forecast what the numbers would be after she spent the money to have a statewide discussion with the electorate of the Democratic primary for the next 6 weeks.  He did this by giving descriptions of what the candidates want you to think about them.  Even though this was an internal poll, the descriptions of Speier’s opponents were pretty positive.  These results were better:

When the descriptions were read and the numbers recounted, Speier moved ahead of Garamendi in the Moore poll, 41 percent to 36 percent.

Well, this may be true, but at this point, there is only 6 weeks before the election.  I personally really like Jackie, most because of her potential, but she needs to do some work on communicating with the voters…and fast.