(With Republicans’ budget tantrum swinging legislative approval to such a degree — and with the GOP tanking nationally — I wanted to bump this as races that might have felt out of reach a year ago are now potentially competitive. – promoted by Bob Brigham)
The 2006 California Legislative election have come and gone with no change in the composition of either the Assembly or Senate. In the Senate,.we kept the 25-15 lead thanks to Lou Correa’s narrow win in SD-24. The only near miss was Democratic challenger Wiley Nickel narrowly losing to Republican incumbent Jeff Denham in SD-12. In the Assembly, things are still 48-32, just as they were before the election. So, onward to 2008.
For the most part, I’m going to be focusing on open seats since that’s where most of the action is. In 2008, the odd-numbered Senate seats are up.
(More after the flip)
23 Assemblymen are term-limited in 2008, 12 Republicans and 11 Democrats. Here are the districts which will be open, the term-limited incumbent (for reference) and the registration statistics.
Republicans-Held Seats (12):
AD-02 (Doug La Malfa)
Democratic: 31.93%
Republican: 47.82%
Gap: R+15.89
AD-03 (Rick Keene)
Democratic: 33.33%
Republican: 42.27%
Gap: R+8.94
AD-10 (Alan Nakanishi)
Democratic: 37.77%
Republican: 42.07%
Gap: R+4.30
AD-15 (Guy Houston)
Democratic: 38.02%
Republican: 40.19%
Gap: R+2.17
AD-26 (Greg Aghazarian)
Democratic: 40.92%
Republican: 42.20%
Gap: R+1.28
AD-34 (Bill Maze)
Democratic: 32.87%
Republican: 47.22%
Gap: R+14.35
AD-36 (Sharon Runner)
Democratic: 35.53%
Republican: 43.94%
Gap: R+8.41
AD-64 (John Benoit)
Democratic: 33.50%
Republican: 46.04%
Gap: R+12.54
AD-71 (Todd Spitzer)
Democratic: 26.50%
Republican: 52.68%
Gap: R+26.18
AD-75 (George Plescia)
Democratic: 28.70%
Republican: 43.57%
Gap: R+14.87
AD-78 (Shirley Horton)
Democratic: 40.89%
Republican: 34.75%
Gap: D+6.14
AD-80 (Bonnie Garcia)
Democratic: 45.59%
Republican: 37.37%
Gap: D+8.22
We can classify these as such
Non-competitive:
AD-71: R+26.18
AD-02: R+15.89
AD-75: R+14.87
AD-34: R+14.35
AD-64: R+12.54
Potentially Competitive:
AD-03: R+8.94
AD-36: R+8.41
AD-10: R+4.30
AD-15: R+2.17
AD-26: R+1.28
Lean Democratic:
AD-78: D+6.14
AD-80: D+8.22
Democratic-Held Seats (11):
AD-01 (Patty Berg)
Democratic: 44.54%
Republican: 28.45%
Gap: D+16.09
AD-08 (Lois Wolk)
Democratic: 45.53%
Republican: 30.06%
Gap: D+15.47
AD-13 (Mark Leno)
Democratic: 56.21%
Republican: 9.66%
Gap: D+46.55
AD-14 (Loni Hancock)
Democratic: 58.48%
Republican: 15.50%
Gap: D+42.98
AD-19 (Gene Mullin)
Democratic: 50.10%
Republican: 23.04%
Gap: D+27.06
AD-22 (Sally Lieber)
Democratic: 43.25%
Republican: 24.56%
Gap: D+18.69
AD-27 (John Laird)
Democratic: 47.98%
Republican: 26.61%
Gap: D+21.37
AD-30 (Nicole Parra)
Democratic: 47.38%
Republican: 38.16%
Gap: D+9.22
AD-40 (Lloyd Levine)
Democratic: 47.84%
Republican: 28.65%
Gap: D+19.19
AD-46 (Fabian Nunez)
Democratic: 63.01%
Republican: 13.69%
Gap: D+49.32
AD-52 (Mervyn Dymally)
Democratic: 67.24%
Republican: 14.19%
Gap: D+53.05
So, these can be classified as
Not competitive:
AD-52: D+53.05
AD-46: D+49.32
AD-13: D+46.55
AD-14: D+42.98
AD-19: D+27.06
AD-27: D+21.37
AD-40: D+19.19
AD-22: D+18.69
AD-01: D+16.09
AD-08: D+15.47
Potentially competitive:
AD-30: D+9.22
Senate:
10 Senators are term-limited in 2008, 6 Democrats and 4 Republicans. I’m also going to include one-term Senator Abel Maldonado on the list because his increasingly Democratic district could be a pickup with the right candidate (John Laird?).
Democratic-Held Seats:
SD-05 (Michael Machado)
Democratic: 45.82%
Republican: 33.26%
Gap: D+12.56
SD-07 (Tom Torlakson)
Democratic: 46.66%
Republican: 31.06%
Gap: D+15.60
SD-09 (Don Perata)
Democratic: 59.07%
Republican: 13.78%
Gap: D+45.29
SD-21 (Jack Scott)
Democratic: 45.69%
Republican: 29.13%
Gap: D+16.56
SD-23 (Sheila Kuehl)
Democratic: 50.01%
Republican: 25.83%
Gap: D+24.18
SD-25 (Edward Vincent)
Democratic: 58.64%
Republican: 21.72%
Gap: D+36.92
Not competitive:
SD-09: D+45.29
SD-25: D+36.92
SD-23: D+24.18
SD-21: D+16.56
SD-07: D+15.60
SD-05: D+12.56
Republican-Held Seats:
SD-15 (Abel Maldonado) (not term-limited but I wanted to include because it is a Democratic-favoring seat)
Democratic: 39.56%
Republican: 37.32%
Gap: D+2.24
SD-19 (Tom McClintock)
Democratic: 36.04%
Republican: 40.99%
Gap: R+4.95
SD-29 (Bob Margett)
Democratic: 32.18%
Republican: 45.16%
Gap: R+12.98
SD-33 (Dick Ackerman)
Democratic: 26.90%
Republican: 51.39%
Gap: R+24.49
SD-37 (Jim Battin)
Democratic: 34.42%
Republican: 45.98%
Gap: R+11.56
Not competitive:
SD-33: R+24.49
SD-29: R+12.98
SD-37: R+11.56
Potentially competitive:
SD-19: R+4.95
SD-15: D+2.24
So, in conclusion, some key races to target and defend are:
Republican-Held Seats:
AD-03: R+8.94
AD-36: R+8.41
AD-10: R+4.30
AD-15: R+2.17
AD-26: R+1.28
AD-78: D+6.14
AD-80: D+8.22
SD-19: R+4.95
SD-15: D+2.24
Democratic-Held Seats:
AD-30: D+9.22