Howie Klein has a look at the state of congressional races in California as voters are heading to the polls in what should be a tsunami year for Democrats.

Over the flip…

The most likely district to go from Republican to Democrat this year is CA-04 where corrupt Republican incumbent John Doolittle– along with the equally corrupt Mrs. Doolittle– will soon be headed for prison and the GOP is trying to slip in an ideological doppelganger in the form of L.A. right wing extremist Tom McClintock. First McClintock, widely seen as an interloper and carpetbagger, will have to get by the Democrat who came close to beating Doolittle in 2006, local boy Charlie Brown, a retired Air Force Lt. Colonel known for standing up for working families.

There are two other Blue America candidates running strong races, Russ Warner in CA-26 and Debbie Cook in CA-46, both awakening red districts represented by entrenched rubber stamp Republicans David Dreier and Dana Rohrabacher. No one ever mentions the two most glaring anomalies about the two Republicans: Dreier is a hypocritical, self-loathing closet queen who takes his lover/overpaid chief of staff on exotic vacations all over the world at taxpayer expense; and Rohrabacher is out of his mind and the biggest– probably only— supporter of Taliban terrorists in Congress. Instead, battles in both districts are being fought on familiar turf– both incumbents have taken massive amounts of “donations” from special interests like Big Oil and commercial banking and insurance and have always voted for their interests instead of the interests of the working families in their districts.

Three other California Democrats are making credible cases to displace out of touch incumbents. Up near Sacramento, far right extremist Dan Lungren is facing his stiffest challenge ever from Bill Durston. Meanwhile Mary Bono Mack, who doesn’t have any connect to her district any longer, is getting a run for her (big corporate contributors’) money from Julie Bornstein. The sixth challenger with a real shot at winning is Nick Liebham who’s taking on corrupt rubber stamp lobbyist Brian Bilbray in Northern San Diego County. This afternoon Nick talked with me about Bilbray’s shameful record concerning veterans. “Bibray’s voting record as it concerns veterans really speaks to his distorted priorities and values,” said Nick. “Irrespective of how you feel about the war, and I have called for a timeline to withdraw our troops, we as a nation have an obligation to provide for our heroes when they return home.  Brian Bilbray will send them to a war into perpetuity but wont send them to college.  He is a disgrace.” Nick’s campaign got a tremendous boost in the last couple of weeks when a local hero, former Marine Gen. Joe Hoar not only endorsed Nick, but started campaigning for him and cut a devastating TV commercial as well.

As Howie notes, the disgusting decision by Democrats to focus on an incumbent protection redistricting following the 2000 census means that we are in the second cycle in a row where it is unbelievably difficult for Democrats to take advantage of a nation that has realized Republicans are an awful choice. While it is important to talk to your parents about voting Republican, it is quite difficult to beat them in California. So if you live in a competitive district, please do all you can to help out. And since it is likely you don’t live in a competitive district, sending money is helpful. And hopefully, following the 2010 census, Democrats will follow a Burton redistricting model that is far more Phil than John.

(It’s a bizarre story. Isn’t it about time that the 46th is represented by a leader focused on what’s important, like say Debbie Cook? – promoted by Brian Leubitz)

I’m… speechless.  This latest piece from the OC Weekly reveals that Rohrabacher actually thinks the “Arabs” were responsible for assassinating Robert F. Kennedy, and decades later visited Sirhan Sirhan in prison… in drag???

According to a September 25, 2008, Pasadena Weekly article by Carl Kozlowski, Rohrabacher believes that the Los Angeles Police Department has for 40 years hidden the fact that Sirhan Sirhan, the lone man convicted of shooting Kennedy, worked as part of a “real conspiracy” of Arabs.

Why? Well, Rohrabacher–a rabid right-wing Republican who has bragged to me and other reporters about his, uh, longtime personal ties to the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)–claims he was in the Ambassador Hotel in Los Angeles for a party at the same time Kennedy was murdered in the kitchen.

Ponder that admission for a moment and then consider the congressman’s incredible tale.

More of the disturbing tale below the fold.

In early 2007–39 years after the killing and right around the time that he blamed global warming on dinosaur flatulence, Rohrabacher decided to solve his murder mystery for “the Kennedy family.”

Anyone familiar with Rohrabacher knows this story is now headed for unadulterated, wacky bliss.

At some point, Sirhan sent Summer Reese, one of his lawyers, a letter telling her that “a Diana was coming to see him.”

Reese told Kozlowski, “Sirhan didn’t know it was the congressman because his visitor was presented as a woman.”

Rohrabacher. Undercover. In drag. Using the name Diana?

Perhaps this sheds light on why ex-Congressman Bob Dornan (R-Garden Grove) liked to call Rohrabacher “a fruitcake.”

What were you doing at Corcoran State Prison in California, Diana/Dana?

“I went to see [Sirhan] specifically because I believe he didn’t act alone and that the full story of Bobby Kennedy’s assassination has not been known,” he said. “I would like Sirhan Sirhan to finally, at long last, level with the Kennedy family and the American people, whether to clear his soul as part of his Christian beliefs or try to set the record straight.”

I need to go pick my jaw up off the floor now.

Oh, and here is the Pasadena Weekly article that was referenced.

Reese also criticized Rohrabacher’s visit to Corcoran to see Sirhan in early 2007, saying “We got a letter from Sirhan, who was told a ‘Diana’ was coming to see him,” she recalled. “Sirhan didn’t know it was the congressman because the visitor was presented as a woman.”

Reese said Sirhan was told the person was coming to talk about the atrocious conditions he faces in solitary confinement. “So, of course, he said sure, send this person in.”

Reese said no one on Sirhan’s legal team was informed of the meeting, and when Rohrabacher arrived with two aides, she claimed he “repeatedly badgered him to admit he did the killing to clear his conscience. The two aides tape recorded the whole thing and Sirhan felt very used and abused by the process.”

The timing of the visit was highly suspicious, Reese said. “Why visit after all these years, unless they’re worried about whatever new legal proceedings will produce and trying to torpedo that by getting him to admit something he didn’t do?” she asked. “We never received an answer from Rohrabacher’s office about why he was there, or tapes of the conversation that were made while he was in there. They admitted they were there, but there’s no explanation from Rohrabacher or his aides. He was not there for justice.”

Now, that piece doesn’t say if Rohrabacher was actually in drag; it seems he was just pretending to be a woman to… well… I don’t know why.  Does Sirhan refuse to accept male visitors or something??

I’m officially creeped out now.

Here are some things happening around the state:

• CA-04: The most important debate evah is tonight!  No, not that Biden-Palin thing, it’s Calitics Match candidate Charlie Brown and Tom McClintock in Oroville.    Meanwhile, the air war has begun in earnest.  Brown is up with a 60-second ad featuring a local family as a third-party endorser, explaining their struggles to stay ahead in this economy and how Brown is the right choice.  I think it’ll play well (Brown has an American Jobs Plan which includes investments in infrastructure and green jobs, which is key to the needed reindustrialization of society).  On the other hand, Tom McClintock has decided to use Grandpa Fred.

“The financial crisis our nation faces is complicated, and I don’t think anybody’s got all the answers,” Thompson, a well-known actor and former U.S. senator from Tennessee, says in the commercial. “But I’ll tell you one thing. I’ll feel a lot more confident with Tom McClintock working on it, rather than some amateur.”

Shorter Grandpa Fred: “All this book-learnin’ and financializin’ is hard to figger.  Pick the guy who’s never voted Yes on a budget in his entire career.”

• CA-11: If you want to know why Dean Andal isn’t getting any traction in his race against Rep. Jerry McNerney, this quote says it all:

Elected in 2006, McNerney is in a better position for reelection than many expected. But he sits in a district that gave President Bush 54 percent of the vote in 2004, a sure sign that the freshman Democrat ought to be looking over his shoulder.

His Republican opponent, former state Assemblyman Dean Andal, may not be in a position to capitalize, though. The Lodi News-Sentinel reported that an Andal spokesman took the curious position that “it would be inappropriate of Andal to comment on the bailout bill, because he is not in office.”

Yes, it would be terrible to actually give your viewpoints on national issues during a political campaign.

• CA-46: You know that Calitics Match candidate Debbie Cook is gaining traction in her race against nutjob Dana Rohrabacher by this – Rohrabacher has gone negative.  He’s sent an attack mailer that takes a Cook comment about gas prices out of context and really goes to great lengths to greenwash himself.  He mentions his sponsorship of a bill to completely eliminate environmental review for solar projects, which is irresponsible but which he is trying to cynically use as proof of his green energy bona fides.  It also calls Cook an extremist liberal who opposes drilling.

What’s hysterical is that Rohrabacher sent the mailer to everyone in the district but Democrats, meaning that Greens got it.  And I’m told by the Cook campaign that they received numerous calls from Green Party members saying that they were voting for Debbie BECAUSE of the mailer!

In other news, Rohrabacher is certifiably crazy.

According to a September 25, 2008, Pasadena Weekly article by Carl Kozlowski, Rohrabacher believes that the Los Angeles Police Department has for 40 years hidden the fact that Sirhan Sirhan, the lone man convicted of shooting Kennedy, worked as part of a “real conspiracy” of Arabs […]

In early 2007–39 years after the killing and right around the time that he blamed global warming on dinosaur flatulence, Rohrabacher decided to solve his murder mystery for “the Kennedy family.”

Anyone familiar with Rohrabacher knows this story is now headed for unadulterated, wacky bliss.

At some point, Sirhan sent Summer Reese, one of his lawyers, a letter telling her that “a Diana was coming to see him.”

Reese told Kozlowski, “Sirhan didn’t know it was the congressman because his visitor was presented as a woman.”

Rohrabacher. Undercover. In drag. Using the name Diana?

Perhaps this sheds light on why ex-Congressman Bob Dornan (R-Garden Grove) liked to call Rohrabacher “a fruitcake.”

I actually know Carl, maybe I’ll track him down and interview him about this.

• AD-26: I’ve noticed a lot of Republicans afraid to debate this year.  Here’s another example.

Stretching from Turlock to Stocton, the 26th Assembly District is fairly even in voter registration and is a target on both party’s lists. So why would one candidate take a pass on a critical opportunity to face his opponent and make his case to voters? That is the question being asked by Democratic candidate John Eisenhut who was at a League of Women Voters debate in Modesto Friday night. His Republican opponent, Bill Berryhill, had a “scheduling conflict.”

In a conversation with Eisenhut the night after the debate he said that Berryhill didn’t want to debate him. This in spite of Berryhill being quoted by the Modesto Bee saying,

“People deserve some dialogue and to know where we both stand.”

• AD-30: Fran Florez runs against Sacramento  in this solid new ad.  Is she also running against her own son, State Sen. Dean Florez?

A mini-report:

• CA-04: I love this video from the Charlie Brown campaign.  They traveled 412 miles down to Thousand Oaks to talk to constituents of California’s Alan Keyes, State Senator and professional office-chaser Tom McClintock.  It’s really funny and drives the point home that McClintock is a do-nothing at best and a dangerous radical at worst:

And get this, McClintock is now running on the state budget, the Republican version of which has a 19% approval rating.  That’s like putting Nixon, Bush and Cheney in your campaign ad.

• CA-26, CA-45: Not one but two!  Both Russ Warner AND Julie Bornstein have been added to the DCCC “Races To Watch” list.  This is a prelude to being listed as Red To Blue candidates.  If the D-Trip comes through with some money, maybe threatened incumbents like Dreier will have to stop mouthing off about other GOP races and start paying attention to their own. UPDATE: Mike Lumpkin (CA-52) is on that list now too, which is a pleasant surprise.

• CA-46: When John Fund tries to target a Dem challenger, you know something’s going wrong.  Fund is sounding the alarm on Debbie Cook, as Dana Rohrabacher tries to greenwash himself with a scheme to build solar-power plants on federal land without environmental impact studies.  Fund says that Cook called this “an extreme position,” but he chopped the quote:

Democratic challenger and Mayor of Huntington Beach Debbie Cook agrees that the process of approving solar power plants is sluggish and needs to be sped up, but not at the expense of the environment.

“This is just another extreme position by Dana Rohrabacher. What we need to do is come up with a balanced approach that streamlines these projects, because they’re critically important to our energy future, but at the same time recognizes the impacts to the environment,” Cook said.

Rohrabacher’s doing the equivalent of saying he’ll grow jobs by hiring 10,000 federally funded serial killers, and then wondering why everyone’s worried about the mass death (“You wanted jobs, didn’t you?”).  There’s a sensible way to free up the bottlenecks and a rash one.  Rohrabacher chose door #2.

• CA-42: The internal poll results released by Ed Chau are intriguing (showing him up 44-38 after a mix of positive and negative information released on the candidates), but I don’t think candidates who have minimal bank accounts should do polls stating the numbers after a mix of information if they don’t have the money to get that information out.  But if Gary Miller truly has a 28% re-elect number as the poll states, he could be in trouble.

You’d think this would be bigger news on the last night of the Republican Convention, that the guy that used to be their go-to lobbyist got sentenced today.

Disgraced former lobbyist Jack Abramoff, whose corruption scandal shook up Washington’s power elite and contributed to the Republican loss of control in Congress, was sentenced on Thursday to four years in federal prison.

Abramoff is already serving a nearly six-year term on unrelated charges and the new sentence will be served at the same time, meaning he will not spend any extra time behind bars once his original sentence ends in 2012.

Judge Ellen Huvelle issued the sentence after federal prosecutors recommended leniency due to Abramoff’s cooperation in pursuing corruption cases against lawmakers and former administration officials. He faced a maximum of 11 years under a plea deal reached in 2006.

Abramoff has major ties to John Doolittle, Ken Calvert and several other California Republicans, but the Debbie Cook campaign has been pressing the connections between this twice-convicted felon and Dana Rohrabacher.  To wit:

Abramoff Funded Trips

Rohrabacher’s ties to Jack Abramoff date from the 1980s. In 1999, Rohrabacher went on an Abramoff-funded trip to the Marshall Islands with John Doolittle (R-CA), Ken Calvert (R-CA) and eight staffers. (http://talkingpointsmemo.com/docs/RMItravel.html)

Rohrabacher Used As Reference By Abramoff

In 2000, Abramoff listed Rohrabacher as a reference on a loan application for the purchase of SunCruz Casinos. “I don’t remember it, but I would have certainly have been happy to give him a good recommendation,’ Rohrabacher said. “He’s a very honest man.” (LINK)

Another Overseas Trip Paid For By Abramoff

In 2002, Rohrabacher and his wife and campaign manager Rhonda, took a trip to Malaysia, accompanied by two Abramoff partners at the firm Greenberg Traurig. House records indicate the trip to Malaysia focused on terrorism and trade. Rohrabacher’s spokeman called the trip “very positive.” (LINK)

Rohrabacher Calls Abramoff “a fine man”

In April 2005, with Abramoff the target of a grand jury, Rohrabacher said “Jack has made some mistakes…but he is not the dishonest, malevolent, arrogant, wheeler-dealer that people are portraying. He is a fine man.”

(LINK)

Rohrabacher: Abramoff’s Crimes Are Business As Usual

Rohrabacher defended Abramoff to the Washington Post: “I think he’s been dealt a bad hand and the worst, rawest deal I’ve ever seen in my life.” Words like bribery are being used to describe things that happened every day in Washington and are not bribes.”

Abramoff pleaded guilty in January 2006 to fraud, tax evasion and conspiracy to bribe public officials. (LINK)

Rohrabacher Alone in Praising Abramoff, Despite Guilty Plea

Following Abramoff’s guilty plea for his role in the fraudulent purchase of a fleet of casino cruise boats in Florida, Rohrabacher was the ONLY member of Congress to request leniency from the federal judge sentencing Abramoff.

(LINK)

Today, Debbie Cook released this statement: “Rohrabacher’s ongoing relationship with Jack Abramoff and his willingness to excuse his crimes, even now, as Abramoff is sentenced for bribery, speaks volumes about the Congressman’s judgment and his Washington D.C. mindset.”  The words “culture of corruption,” which Democrats successfully branded in 2006, can be thrown in there as well.

Good to see some aggressiveness out of Cook.  They just released their first ad of the cycle, too, designed for local cable, which also displays some toughness against Rohrabacher.  It’s the first ad run against Crazy Dana in 20 years.  What’s more, they’re asking supporters to buy an ad through Act Blue.

The Cook campaign will be on hand at this Democrats Work event, along with me, on Saturday.

Greetings and welcome to the latest installment of the California House races roundup.  We’re just around 100 days to go until the election, and things are starting to take focus.  There are about a half-dozen seats where Democratic challengers have an outside shot at dumping the incumbent, and another six on the watch list in case something spectacular occurs.  One thing to note is that the Cook numbers are tied to the 2004 election, and given the demographic changes and cratering of the Republican brand I think they mean significantly less now – it’ll be interesting to see how all these districts change in November.

We have plenty of new information to judge these races, including 2nd quarter fundraising reports, national ratings from Charlie Cook and Swing State Project, additional DCCC targets, and the appearance of many challengers at Netroots Nation.  So this list is really about who I think has the best chance to retain or take over a seat, not necessarily who should (though that may come through in the writing).  Here are some helpful bits of information that I used to help judge.

FEC disclosures (you can search by candidate name)

Voter registration by Congressional district.

Swing State Project fundraising roundup

On to the report…

DEMOCRATIC SEATS

1. CA-11. Incumbent: Jerry McNerney.  Challenger: Dean Andal.  Cook number: R+3.  % Dem turnout in the Presidential primary: 53.7%.  DCCC defended.  This remains the only opportunity for Republicans in the state, and it is starting to slip away.  Dean Andal is proving to be incredibly weak at fundraising, having raised under $200,000 for FOUR STRAIGHT QUARTERS.  He’s not going to be able to get up on TV, and his opponent has not only outraised him but will get about a million dollars in ad help from the DCCC.  Freedom’s Watch threw in a few anti-McNerney robocalls, but that’s really no match for the political muscle of the D-Trip.  Plus, there’s a brewing Andal scandal over his participation in passing privileged information and securing developer contracts for a San Joaquin Delta College contractor.  As for McNerney, his vote for the FISA bill has caused outcry in the district, and national groups like Blue America won’t be lending a hand.  He has changed his position on medical marijuana in response to constituents, a symbolic piece of support with activists.  But I think he’s largely on his own in this race.

McNerney: raised $416K in the second quarter, $1.37m cash on hand

Andal: raised $174K Q2, $663K CoH

REPUBLICAN SEATS

I’m going to do four tiers in setting apart the top seats where we have challenges to Republican incumbents.

First Tier

1. CA-04.  Last month: 1.  Open seat.  Dem. challenger: Charlie Brown.  Repub. challenger: Tom McClintock.  PVI #: R+11.  % Dem turnout in Feb. primary: 44.7.  DCCC targeted.  Tom McClintock actually raised quite a bit of money in the second quarter, but it all got plowed into the divisive primary with Doug Ose.  Plus, he was able to go above individual spending caps because of the “Millionaire’s Amendment,” which was recently ruled unconstitutional, putting constitutional literalist McClintock in a bind over what to do with that money.  We’ve seen real awkwardness from McClintock over how to handle disgraced incumbent John Doolittle, with shows of support and rejections happening on alternate days.  Meanwhile, Charlie Brown is humming along.  He has a 6-1 cash on hand advantage, and he’ll also be the recipient of some ad love from the DCCC.  His courageous stand against the FISA bill, outreach to parts of the district harmed by wildfires, and the release of a good energy plan which stresses tax credits for alternative energy and government fleets going renewable (and opposing opening up new lands for offshore drilling, in line with the “Use It Or Lose It” plan from Speaker Pelosi).  Brown was beloved at Netroots Nation and looks good in polling.  This is obviously our biggest-priority pickup.

Brown: raised $355K, $675K CoH

McClintock: raised $1.27m, $117 CoH

Second Tier

2. CA-46.  Last month: 4.  Incumbent: Dana Rohrabacher.  Challenger: Debbie Cook (Responsible Plan endorser). PVI #: R+6.  % Dem. turnout: 47.2.  I’m still concerned that the numbers aren’t quite there in the district, but I’m upping Cook this high because I have to acknowledge her achievements.  First, she’s outraised Rohrabacher two quarters in a row, and from what I’m being told, this has a lot to do with Dana and his wife (also his fundraiser) calling Republican backers and getting the phone slammed in their ears.  The Cook Political Report moved the race to Likely Republican, the only such move among competitive California races.  And there are indications that the D-Trip is at least taking a look at this race.  Most of this is happening because Cook is a compelling candidate.  Read her interview with Open Left or watch her interview with Talking Points Memo and you can see why.  Her environmental activism, competent fiscal management in Huntington Beach, and the fact that she’s not a ridiculously corrupt nutjob like Dana Rohrabacher makes for a fantastic profile.  This is probably too high, but there are some great signs here.

Cook: raised $110K, $97K CoH

Rohrabacher: raised $86K, $388 CoH

3. CA-50.  Last month: 5.  Incumbent: Brian Bilbray.  Challenger: Nick Leibham.  PVI #: R+5.  % Dem. turnout: 50.8.  DCCC targeted.  Nick Leibham outraised Brian Bilbray in the second quarter, and took in a nice haul of $245K in his own right.  He’s been gaining some attack points for criticizing Bilbray on wanting to debate on the radio and not in the district, and calling on other states to drill offshore but not California, an incoherent position.  The D-Trip put Leibham on their Red to Blue emerging races list, and dropped radio ads in the district tying him to Bush (MP3 here).  Leibham needs to articulate an agenda rather than just slam Bilbray forever, and that agenda needs to be a true contrast, but there is some movement here.

Leibham: raised $245K, $267K CoH

Bilbrary: raised $210K, $528K CoH

4. CA-26.  Last month: 2.  Incumbent: David Dreier.  Challenger: Russ Warner.  PVI #: R+4.  % Dem. turnout: 50.2.  DCCC targeted.  Warner was very focused on fundraising in June and yet came up short of beating David Dreier in the second quarter.  The problem is that Dreier has nearly two million dollars in the bank, so there’s a nearly 40-1 cash disadvantage, including campaign debts.  And despite the positive signs in the district, that’s tough to overcome.  Warner is going to need outside help, and the Bush Rubber Stamp project is a step in the right direction, but I don’t know if they’ll have the kind of money needed to meet the challenge.  There’s not much here to get me excited at this point.

Warner: raised $161K, $125K CoH

Dreier: raised $247K, $1.9m CoH

5. CA-45.  Last month: 3.  Incumbent: Mary Bono Mack.  Challenger: Julie Bornstein.  PVI #: R+3.  % Dem. turnout: 51.3.  The district is ready for a Democrat, and the symbiosis between Manuel Perez’ hotly contested Assembly campaign and Bornstein’s is going to help her in ways that aren’t being respected by the experts.  I still think this race is being undervalued.  However, Bornstein has been fairly invisible, from what I can tell, since the June primary.  And Bornstein got significantly outraised in Q2 as Mary Bono recognized the challenge she is facing can only be overcome with money.  In cash on hand she’s not far out of sight, however, and if Bornstein proves to be a solid and aggressive campaigner and benefits from increased Latino turnout in the Eastern Coachella Valley, there’s still a shot here.

Bornstein: raised $125K, $121K CoH

Bono: raised $336K, $421K CoH

Third Tier

6. CA-03.  Last month: 6.  Incumbent: Dan Lungren.  Challenger: Bill Durston. PVI #: R+7. % Dem turnout: 51.8.  This remains my sleeper pick in California.  The fundraising numbers were close, with Dan Lungren raising $173K to Durston’s $125K.  Lungren is trying to pivot to the center, coming out for nuclear warhead reduction with Russia, and the “X Prize” for battery technology promoted by John McCain.  But he’s firmly in the drill now, do nothing camp (despite voting against the “Use It Or Lose It” plan), and he’s lying about Democratic plans for tax increases.  Then there’s this bit of hilarity:

At a town hall meeting a few months ago Rep. Dan Lungren (R-Gold River) was adamant about denying citizenship to babies born in the United States to non-citizens. He lumped the infants into the same category as immigrants who cross the border illegally. He went so far as to sponsor a bill to deny citizenship to babies born to non-citizens.

In a classic flip-flop, Congo Dan “is backing the bill giving the Department of Homeland Security 30 days to process visas for entertainers,” says the Los Angeles Times.

Durston has publicly challenged Lungren to debates, and has a nifty comparison chart on his website that shows he’s truly running a campaign of contrast.  Keep an eye on this one.

Durston raised $125K, $189K CoH

Lungren raised $173K, $615K CoH

7. CA-52.  Last month: 7.  Open seat.  Dem. challenger: Mike Lumpkin.  Repub. challenger: Duncan D. Hunter.  PVI #: R+9.  % Dem. turnout: 47.2.  Calitics got to chat with Mike Lumpkin at Netroots Nation, and we were fairly impressed.  He talked up all the “Conservative Republicans for Lumpkin” signs he’s seeing in the district.  One thing he mentioned worried me, however: well over half of the voters in the primary thought they were voting for Duncan Hunter’s father, the incumbent.  That makes this almost not an open seat, and with Hunter’s fundraising advantage, it’s going to be an uphill battle.

Lumpkin raised $129K, $54K CoH

Hunter raised $338K, $198K CoH

Also Noted

8. CA-44.  Last month: 8.  Incumbent: Ken Calvert.  Challenger: Bill Hedrick (Responsible Plan endorser).  PVI #: R+6.  % Dem. turnout: 49.3.  Bill Hedrick tried to hit Ken Calvert over earmarks, and certainly there’s still a lot of smoke surrounding Calvert’s dirty dealings.  But in a low information district, Hedrick needs a lot of money for name ID, moeny he doesn’t have.

9. CA-42.  Last month: 11.  Incumbent: Gary Miller.  Challenger: Ed Chau.  PVI #: R+10.  % Dem. turnout: 44.0. Ed Chau has only $12,000 in the bank compared to Gary Miller’s $950,000.  That’s game, set and match, but questions have been raised once again about Miller’s potentially criminal actions (like his financial stake in getting an OC tollway built), so indictment is still on the fringes of possibility here.

10. CA-48.  Last month: 12.  Incumbent: John Campbell.  Challenger: Steve Young.  PVI #: R+8.  % Dem. turnout: 45.1.  Young is touting a poll (and I like that he’s touting it on ActBlue) showing that he’s up six points after biographical and issue information is distributed.  The problem is he has no money and lots of campaign debt, so how will that information get out there?  

11. CA-24.  Last month: 9.  Incumbent: Elton Gallegly.  Challenger: Marta Jorgensen.  PVI #: R+5.  % Dem. turnout: 50.6. Marta Jorgensen has a fairly nice website, but the money isn’t there to make this all that competitive, and she’ll need an Elton Gallegly slip-up. (Of course, she spent $1,375 on the primary and won, so ya never know…)

12. CA-41.  Last month: 10.  Incumbent: Jerry Lewis.  Challenger: Tim Prince.  PVI #: R+9.  % Dem. turnout: 46.3.  Tim Prince is also challenging Jerry Lewis on earmark requests, but Lewis has been pretty adept at escaping scrutiny in the district.

( – promoted by shayera)

Cross posted at DailyKos

Last month Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (CA-46) made news of the silly sort when he stood on the floor of the House of Representatives and gave a speech ascribing global climate change to “dinosaur flatulence.”

In comments broadcast on C-SPAN television last week, Rohrabacher suggested that “dinosaur flatulence” may have been responsible for past swings in global temperatures, and that the enormous growth in atmospheric carbon dioxide in the past century — and increased global temperatures — are not man-caused.

Rohrabacher’s claim puts him at odds with many in his own party, including President George W. Bush, whose White House acknowledged man-made global warming this year.

Of course, after his comments turned him into a media laughingstock, Rohrabacher tried to walk back from his statement claiming it was all a big joke.  But it’s hard to figure out what’s more offensive, treating the challenges presented by global climate change as a joke or being massively ill-informed about the major perils that face our planet in the coming years.

Of course, Rohrabacher’s buffoonery and willful ignorance of the issues surrounding global climate change stand in stark contrast to the obvious intelligence and sober good judgment that his Democratic opponent Debbie Cook (Mayor, Huntington Beach) brings to the table.  As a recognized expert in energy and transportation policy, Cook is a passionate advocate for renewable energy.  Instead of sticking her head in the sand and indulging in denial, Cook is working to find smart and creative solutions to the very real problems that we face in California and, indeed, nationwide.

Debbie’s message is on the flip…

And Debbie Cook’s message of responsible stewardship is resonating in her district.  Dana Rohrabacher may be an ten-term incumbent who hasn’t had to work for re-election in a very long time, but this year, change is in the air.  The Cook Political Report has changed the rating for the district from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican.”  Cook has raised more campaign money than Rohrabacher for two consecutive quarters.  And with a Republican PVI of +6, there are some people who see strong comparisons between the CA-46 race and the 2006 race in CA-11 between Jerry McNerney and Richard Pombo.  CA-11 also had a +6 PVI, and at this time in the campaign cycle also was being upgraded from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican.”

As a matter of fact, in a conversation today at Netroots Nation with A.J. Carrillo, the campaign manager who engineered McNerney’s successful 2006 Congressional campaign, Carrillo took the comparison even further:

“I met Debbie Cook for the first time today. I’ve read a lot about her, and I was just blown away by her as a candidate. She brings a lot to the table, and I think if any seat in California is going to flip, this is the one. There are a lot of parallels to the McNerney race, plus she’s an excellent candidate.”

Today we caught up with Debbie Cook at Netroots Nation and recorded this message to the netroots:

You can find more information about Debbie Cook at DebbieCookForCongress.com.

Penny

Online Organizing Director

California Democratic Party

Two more Democratic challengers have outraised their incumbent opponents in the second quarter.  That doesn’t happen very often, and it’s not supposed to in the supposedly impenetrably gerrymandered state of California.  But as I’ve been saying, this is a different year.

In CA-50, I’ve been informed that Nick Leibham outraised Brian Bilbray by $245K-$210K in the second quarter.  From the release:

Challenger Nick Leibham raised more money than Congressman Brian Bilbray in this fundraising quarter, according to FEC reports.  Leibham raised $245,504 while Bilbray managed $210,315.  The quarter spanned from April 1, 2008-June 31, 2008.

“Any time that you out raise an incumbent, especially someone like Brian Bilbray who has taken over $180,000 in campaign contributions from Big Oil, it gives the campaign a huge amount of momentum,” said Leibham.  “This is the clearest sign yet that the voters of the 50th are ready for change and I’m honored that so many of them are willing to contribute to our effort.”

Leibham has $266K cash on hand, compared to $528K for Bilbray.

In CA-46, there is similarly good news about Debbie Cook so I’ll let it speak for itself:

Debbie Cook Raises More Than Rohrabacher For The Second Straight Quarter

Democratic Congressional nominee Debbie Cook announced today that she raised more campaign funds than Dana Rohrabacher in the latest reporting period, making it the second quarter in a row she’s out-raised the nine-term incumbent.

Cook, the Mayor of Huntington Beach, out-raised Rohrabacher by more than $10,000. Cook raised $92,900 to Rohrabacher’s $78,712.

Cook has $97K CoH.  70% of her donors are local, meaning she has grassroots support AND that she has limitless potential if she can tap into netroots energy and build a national fundraising base.  She will be appearing at Netroots Nation.

Both of these are, in some respect, a reflection of two lazy incumbents.  Bilbray and particularly Rohrabacher aren’t paying any attention to fundraising.  But there’s not going to be any NRCC money forthcoming if these two get in trouble.  There’s not going to be any expansion of their donor base.  So while both have cash reserves (Bilbray has about $528K CoH, Rohrabacher has $387K), they aren’t overwhelming, and both Leibham and Cook ought to be somewhat competitive financially.

This is nothing like CA-26, where David Dreier has $1.9 million in the bank.  (Russ Warner’s numbers aren’t out yet.)

More numbers:

CA-45: Bornstein raised a little over $96,000, has $121K CoH.  No numbers for Mary Bono yet.

CA-03: Bill Durston raised around $125K, has $188K CoH.  Nice haul for him.  Dan Lungren raised $173K, has $615K CoH.

CA-52: Mike Lumpkin raised $128K but only has $53K CoH.

UPDATE: Russ Warner’s numbers have come through.

CA-26: Warner raised $162K in Q2, $125K CoH (with $73,000 in debts; ouch.); Dreier raised $277K in Q2, $1.9million CoH, no debts.

That’s what I’d call an uphill battle.

A few things of interest as we head into the holiday weekend:

• That mortgage legislation that I noted passing the Assembly yesterday was quickly taken up in the Senate (there were some amendments in the Assembly bill so concurrence was needed, and it passed easily (the vote was 32-8).  The legislation will now be sent to the Governor and there are indications that he will sign it.  Because of the 2/3 vote it received, most of its provisions will take effect immediately.  It’s a decent first step but it had better not be the last.

• The new Cook Report ratings are out, and among the slew of seats where Democrats are gaining, one race in California has shifted:

CA-46    Dana Rohrabacher    Solid Republican to Likely Republican

That’s pretty big news.  Charlie Cook’s report is widely read by insiders, and clearly they are taking notice as to the strength of Debbie Cook’s campaign.  Joe Shaw, communications director for Cook’s campaign, calls it “the first Orange County congressional race to be considered competitive since Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez’s 1996 race against incumbent Bob Dornan.”

• In CA-04, Charlie Brown announced a whirlwind schedule for the 4th of July, participating in events in King’s Beach, Lincoln, Roseville, Grass Valley, Auburn, and Alturas.  Tom McClintock must have seen that and scrambled up on the plane from his Thousand Oaks redoubt, because he hastily scheduled a couple campaign events.  In fact, the two candidates will be in the same parade in Lincoln.  That should be fun.