Which Arnold will show up on any given day is always a tough question.  He goes through more flip-flops than the Teva Corporation (ba-dum-ching!).  The CDP has a new page on their site chronicling Arnold’s Flip-Flops.  There are plenty of them.  I’d also like to point out another one from an unlikely source, “Ask Dog Lady”, about Mr. Schwarzenegger’s attempts to cut shelter funding.

However, Mr. Schwarzenegger is about to get a bigger test.  The legislature is expected to pass a series of laws that test his “moderate” status. 

Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has been performing a delicate balancing act in his campaign for a second term — wooing independent voters who are likely to sway the election while trying not to alienate business interests that are helping finance his campaign.

But a number of bills likely to emerge from the Democrat-controlled Legislature in the weeks ahead could test the governor’s centrist strategy at a critical point in his re-election bid. On issues from greenhouse gases to children’s health care to wages for low-income workers, Schwarzenegger potentially faces a series of thorny decisions just as he reaches the home stretch of his campaign against Democratic Treasurer Phil Angelides. (SJ Merc 8/4/06) 

Among the bills that will be headed to the Schwarzenegger’s desk, there will almost certainly be something to do with the minimum wage and likely at least one environmental bill that Schwarzenegger would otherwise veto.  And finally, because Schwarzenegger flip-flopped on health care for all children, expect to see Wilma Chan’s children’s universal health bill .

But, I love how the Schwarzenegger campaign is playing this: everybody knows our guy’s record: 

“I do think the legislative Democrats will try to help Angelides by sending bills to the governor that are difficult to veto,” Stutzman said. “But I don’t think the governor will be solely defined by whether he signs or vetoes them. He already has an established record.” 

Yes, why would the people judge a Governor by what kinds of laws he makes?  Why ever would they look at his veto records?  Why would the people possibly care whether he vetoes some stupid enviromental laws.  I mean, hello environazis, he painted his bus green, isn’t that enough for you! Of course the real problem is that the people of California don’t know his record.  He told us that he was going to provide health care for all children in the state, and then vetoed that.  He told us that he was a moderate, and then pursued a right-wing agenda in the Special Election.  What kind of record is that?

One of the positions that Arnold takes that is most antithetical to his so-called “moderate” status is his position on the minimum wage.  Sure, he’s happy to raise it a buck now.  But what is Arnold afraid of when he says that he is against indexing.  Indexing would tie the minimum wage to some measure of inflation, presumably the consumer price index (CPI).  If Arnold believes that the state’s minimum wage workers should get $7.75 in two years (as he has indicated), why does he not think they deserve the same amount of real dollars in five years?  In ten years?

More in the extended…

Sen. Tom McClintock, R-Thousand Oaks, said the bill’s intent was to alter natural market forces that determine what employers were willing to pay for labor.  “In the world of reality, the Legislature cannot do that,” he said. “It may as well command the tide not to come in.”

Schwarzenegger vetoed a less aggressive version of the bill last year, which would have raised the minimum wage by $1 over two years without the Consumer Price Index component.  This year, the governor signaled a willingness to sign a bill increasing the minimum, but spread over three years instead of two and without the indexing provision. Officials in his administration also sought to tie the minimum increase to legislation that would have weakened a law that requires overtime pay after an eight-hour day or 40-hour week.
“The governor’s concern is that this bill ties government’s hands and does not provide the flexibility it needs to address changing economic conditions,” said Vince Sollitto, a spokesman for the governor. (SF Chronicle 9/8/2005)

First of all, Mr. McClintock: You are wrong.  In this reality, the reality that real Americans live in, the minimum wage is an important floor.  Do we really want a country where employers can pay $2/hour?  The answer to a large majority of Americans is no.  Why would we work towards making the poor poorer?  And, I would also point the Republican duo to Myth and Measurement, a report on minimum wage increases by David Card and Alan Krueger that inicates that minimum wage increases don’t actually decrease the number of jobs.  Rather, minimum wage increases stops employers from bottom-feeding and gets more people to work.  And by the way, here in San Francisco, we’re using the tide for our own purposes: energy creation, Go Gav!

No, it’s become painfully clear that the hard-right CRaP (California Republican Party) is concerned more that certain monied interests get a few more bucks than ensuring that our workers are paid a fair wage.  In America, we have standards that must be met.  A constant amount of real dollars, accomplished by indexing, would be a truly fair wage. 

And if we’ve learned anything about Arnold Schwarzenegger since the recall election, it’s that he’s bought and paid for by his “non-special” interests.  You see, according to Arnold and his “running-mate”, Tom McClintock, California’s poorest workers are “special interests” but big businesses aren’t.  See, don’t you get it? Rich people: voices of the people, Poor people: Special intersts.  But whatever you call them, one thing is clear: Arnold always serves his “interests”:

The bill is opposed by industry groups that are among Schwarzenegger’s biggest backers, including the California Chamber of Commerce, the California Manufacturers and Technology Association and the California Restaurant Association.

(Cross-posted to Daily Kos and MyDD. – promoted by SFBrianCL)

The AP combed the financial records of both state parties.  Guess what? The California Republican Party (or CRaP, as I like to call it) loves those unlimited donations:

The California Republican Party has raised $12.3 million this year, most of it in unlimited donations, according to campaign finance reports reviewed Tuesday.
***
In June, after the bitter Democratic primary, the Republican Party spent $4.2 million on ads for Schwarzenegger, who has been the party’s main fundraiser.

Since the beginning of the year, the Republican Party received $2 million from Alex Spanos, owner of the San Diego Chargers; $1 million from T. Boone Pickens, the Texas oil tycoon; $1.5 million from A. Jerrold Perenchio, the founder of Univision; $250,000 from Chevron; and $150,000 from Joseph Weider, the fitness magazine owner who is an old friend of Schwarzenegger’s. (LA Daily News 8/2/06)

Check out the flip for more about the CRaPpy Unlimited Donors.

Yup, Mr. Alex Spanos gave $2 million to the CRaP.  And how did Mr. Spanos make his money you might ask?  Well, the Chargers owner was a real estate developer.  Yup, Mr. Schwarzenegger’s good buddy built apartments in Southern California. Oh, and a bonus, Mr. Spanos wrote a book that has a foreword from Rush Limbaugh.  Aww, shucks Arnold, you sure know how to pick your friends.  The praise for the book has some interesting “leaders” besides Limbaugh from sketchy sports owners like Al Davis to business heirs like Barron Hilton, grandfather of Paris Hilton.

Who else gave to the CRaP.  Well, it seems Big Oil loves CRaP.  It seems T. Boone Pickens is interested in Arnold.  You might know him, and love him, from such campaigns as the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, to which he gave $2 Million, or Progress for America, to which he gave $2.5 Million.  It seems Mr. Pickens makes quite a bit of money (over $1.6 BILLION last year), mostly off natural gas. 

Right along with Mr. Pickens is good ol’ Standard Oil of California, Chevron.  Chevron invested $250,000 in CRaP.  It’s quite interesting for a governor who claims to be Green to be courting donors for his party from big oil.

Mr. Schwarzenegger promised the voters of California that he would clean up Sacramento.  He didn’t need special interest money.  It turns out the only special interest money from interests that don’t support him are really special interests.  Nope, Arnold & Big Oil…they’re just good friends.

So, remember when you see those CRaP ads proclaiming Schwarzenegger an environmenatlist just who paid for that ad. The real environmentalist is Phil Angelides

The July PPIC Statewide survey was released late last night.  It’s focused on environmental issues, but the gubenatorial election data that was also obtained in the survey was not great news.  According to PPIC, Schwarzenegger is leading Angelides 43-30.  Part of the difference between this and other polls is due to the way the question was asked.  Rather than just saying Angelides, Schwarzenegger or other, the question mentioned specific candidates like Green Party candidate Peter Camejo. Camejo gets 4 percent in this poll and likely takes most of that from Angelides.

PPIC is generally a very good survey organization.  It doesn’t have quite the accuracy of Field, but it’s certainly not something out of left field.  That being said, Schwarzenegger is still polling well below 50%, the traditional indicator of a safe incumbent.  Interestingly, it appears Democrats have yet to be convinced by Angelides.  Currently only 54% of Democrats say they support Angelides.  This is a real growth opportunity for Phil; he needs to get his message out to the Democrats around the state.  Arnold pulls down 79% of the GOP vote, and Angelides will need to get a similar percentage of the Dem vote. 

A sizable ad campaign will help reverse some of the poor numbers.  If you think about it, this poll is really taken in the valley of Phil’s popularity.  He’s coming out of a bruising primary and is being massively outspent.  Future spending and additional appearances around the state will improve his standing not just among Dems, but also among independents, a category that Arnold is leading 43-25.

So, what can we do to help get Phil’s message out.  One interesting opportunity is Phil’s “volunteer center”, a virtual phone bank.  It is imperative that the voters of this state are aware the stakes of this election.  Let’s not let Arnold coast.  As always, the Poll HQ has been updated.

A couple of polls came out this week as I was vacationing with my sister’s family in lovely, but cloudy, San Diego.  First, we have the WSJ/Zogby poll (H/t CPR) that came out July 24.  It has Angelides up, 44% to 42.3%, with a 3.5% MoE.  So, it’s definitely good news.  Last month’s poll had Angelides up by a fraction of a percentage point.

However, as I’ve said before, the Field Poll is the gold standard in California polling.  And, well, they have the governator with an 8 point lead (45-37).  It’s a little bit worrisome to see the lead in the Field Poll hovering at that 7-8 point lead.  It appears that Phil hasn’t made much headway since the June primary election.

So, it’s a mixed bag, but by no means is it time to panic.  Phil is just beginning to get a good feel for the race, and I have high hopes for the next few months.  He’s been outspent about 15-1, and he’s definitely still in the race.  You might also want to read John Meyers’ post about the silver lining of this poll.  For one thing, Arnold still is struggling with Latinos, losing by 58-22.  He’ll need to pick up some support there to win the race, especially if there’s a big debate about immigration.  As always, these polls will be added to the Poll HQ