Tag Archives: Randy Thommasson

Prop 8, Anti-Marriage, Continues to Trail

Prop 8 was highlighted in today’s Field Poll release (PDF). And there is some very good news here:

Prop 8: Yes 42%, No 51%

No, this isn’t old data. The numbers have been completely static since the May Field Poll (PDF). Marriages have happened, and yet the sky hasn’t fallen. Those people that the Gail Knights, Dennis Hollingsworths, and Randy Thommasson need to convince that the world will surely end if committed loving LGBT couples are allowed to marry are just not buying it. The anti-marriage forces were not all that successful in getting coverage on June 16 when the marriages began. The stories in the media were all about the stable relationships that were now being granted the same standing as any other marriage.  How can you be against Del and Phyllis solemnizing their relationship after 55 years? Or Carol and Rachel after 13 years? Or any of the other committed relationships?

The answer is a resounding silence. Californians are not outraged. A whole lot of nothing.

There are all sorts of great numbers in the full report on Field’s site.  Eventually, you’ll be able to get full cross-tabs on the CapAlert site. The thing that jumps out most obviously is party affiliation. Interestingly, “Other” (DTS, etc.) was pretty much equally likely to vote no as Democrats.  Also interesting is that while young voters are the most likely to oppose Prop 8, even voters over 65 aren’t as strongly opposed as they once were. In fact, the vote is pretty much even in that category.

Prop 8 Yes No Undecided
Democrats 30 63 7
Republicans 68 27 5
Others 27 66 7
18-30 41 55 4
65+ 46 47 7

I’m a bit skeptical of these age numbers. Ok, more than a bit skeptical, as the 50-59 numbers are totally wacky at 38% Yes, 57% No, quite a flip from the May numbers. I’ll try to contact the Field folks about this and see if they have any thoughts on this switch.

UPDATE: Here are the CapAlert cross-tabs(PDF). The 50-59 group is a set of about 190 people, so not a completely tiny set of respondents there.