Voters in the Los Angeles area have seen quite a few elections this year.  We had our regularly scheduled municipal elections this Spring, as well as a municipal general in certain races that had to go to a runoff.  Along the way, we’ve had a special primary and a special general to fill the Senate seat in SD-26 that was vacated by Mark Ridley-Thomas’ ascent to the Board of Supervisors.  That election was won by Assemblyman Curren Price, whose seat in AD-51 was then taken by Steve Bradford in yet another special election (thankfully, he got 51% in the primary ballot, avoiding a runoff and getting a new Assemblyman as quickly as possible).  In between all of that, we had the May 19th special election, as well as the special Congressional election in CA-32 to fill the vacancy created by Hilda Solis’ confirmation as Secretary of Labor.

And now, residents of Los Angeles are on to their final special election of the year–though maybe not the cycle.  Today, voters in certain communities in the San Fernando Valley area of Los Angeles will decide who they want representing them on the City Council, as their former Councilmember Wendy Greuel was elected as City Controller.

And believe it or not, this race has statewide implications.  As you can see from the fundraising numbers, there are three top-tier candidates in the race: Chris(tine) Essel, who is a former Paramount Studios executive turned community activist; Tamar Galatzan, who represents a school board district that overlaps substantially with the Council District; and Assemblymember Paul Krekorian from AD-43, about 20% of the population of which are also residents of Council District 2.  If Krekorian makes it through to the primary and then wins on the 8th, we’ll have a special election next year to fill AD-43, which will be vacant until then (leaving us with one less seat in the Assembly until then).

It is widely expected that there will be a runoff, as the bulk of the votes in this low-turnout election will be split between these three candidates, and there are 7 other candidates in the race that will siphon off a significant number of ballots among them–the runoff will take place September 8th.

Being as objective as I can (I am the political director of an organization that has endorsed Tamar Galatzan), here are the strengths and weaknesses (as I see them) of each candidate:

Chris Essel:  Essel has a lot of money, but not a lot of name recognition.  She has never held elected office, which can be (and has been) a good marketing point, but also means that the 4X4 voters who will decide this election will not be as familiar with her as with the other candidates.  Essel has gotten the endorsement of the Los Angeles Times, and has been able to pay for quite a bit of literature, based on conversations I’ve had with contacts in other campaigns, as well as a TV spot.  Essel also has the endorsement of the former Councilmember, Wendy Greuel.  On the downside, I’ve heard that Essel doesn’t have all that strong a volunteer base and has been having to use paid canvassers.

Paul Krekorian:  Krekorian has a lot of things going for him.  He is well known to a significant section of the district, has good fundraising to pay for mailers and such and has some good endorsements, including the Los Angeles County Democratic Party.  On the downside, the State Assembly isn’t the most popular body in the country right now.  In addition, Krekorian has been attacked by other campaigns for not being a resident of the district until recently–not that that line of attack was successful for those seeking to stop Garamendi from getting the nomination in CD-10, but perhaps a City Council race will feature a different dynamic.

Tamar Galatzan:  Galatzan is weaker in fundraising than the other candidates, but has some advantages.  First, she might have better name recognition than the other candidates because more residents of the district have voted for her than for anyone else, given the extensive overlap between her school board district and Council District 2.  She also has the endorsement of the L.A. Daily News and one of the local community papers.  From what I’ve seen and heard, both Galatzan and Krekorian have had a good ground game so far, and Galatzan has been doing well in recent media appearances–even according to sources I’ve mentioned previously who have no love for her or her campaign.  On the downside, less money means less mail, which is the usual way one wins races like this.

So who wins?  Well, the real question is, which two of the three is going to go to the runoff, given the fact that it will be a major shock if one of the lesser seven somehow manages to pull it off without a substantial campaign.  My prediction?

Krekorian in first, with Galatzan barely beating Essel for slot 2.  I do think that a good field campaign, volunteer operation, and name recognition from previous campaigns matter, especially when the electorate consists of the most politically active and savvy voters.  In my heart, I would also like to believe that elections can’t be won with a rolodex, even at the local level.

I’ll be posting an open thread with the results soon after they close.

Down in Los Angeles, we have a special election for Council District 2 coming up on September 22, as the former Councilmember from that District, Wendy Greuel, was just elected City Controller.  And you may be thinking–why are you cluttering a statewide site with a City Council election?  Well, if you talk to anyone who knows Los Angeles politics, they’ll tell you that there are three top-tier candidates for the seat: School Board Member Tamar Galatzan; former Paramount VP Chris (Christine) Essel; and…Assemblymember Paul Krekorian from the 43rd AD.

You may also be asking yourself why someone would leave the Assembly to run for a City Council seat.  It might seem like a step back, but it’s actually a no-brainer.  There’s good job security, as LA City Councilmembers can serve three four-year terms; there’s a lot of influence over a large budget and a geographic area that’s roughly the size of state assembly seat; and the fact that we have the highest-paid city council in the nation doesn’t hurt either.  Add to that the fact that Krekorian hasn’t been given any positions of prominence in the Sacramento hierarchy, and you can see why he might be thinking that his political future in the Assembly may be limited, even though he’s only in his second term.

There’s expected to be a runoff for the seat, as none of the three top candidates are expected to break the 50% threshold that would be needed to avoid one, and Krekorian is definitely expected to be in the runoff, which would take place December 8.

And if Krekorian wins, of course, that sets off the musical chairs cascading yet again, as there would then be a special election in AD-43–which is what this post is about.  I have had my ear to the ground about who would be the top-tier candidates in case of such a vacancy, and here are the three names that have come up so far:

Adrin Nazarian.  Nazarian is Krekorian’s chief of staff, I believe for his district office, and has apparently moved into the 43rd district recently, which seems to indicate a desire to run for the seat.  Nazarian has a few things going for him: he would almost certainly have Krekorian’s endorsement, which would matter in the district, and as a district rep it seems like he would know the lay of the land pretty well, in addition to having roots in the Armenian community, which constitutes roughly 15% of the district’s population.

Michael Amerian.  Last seen pulling a relatively surprising third-place finish in the primary for the Los Angeles City Attorney race, Amerian has shown he can run a strong campaign and can be expected to be a formidable campaigner.  Rumor has it that he just recently switched his voter registration to Democratic, which could be a problem in a Democratic district where a significant portion of the ground game will depend on volunteers from Democratic clubs–I haven’t been to Norwalk to confirm that for myself.

Mike Gatto.  Gatto is currently an attorney at the powerhouse firm Mayer Brown LLP, where he works alongside the likes of Dario Frommer, Bob Hertzberg and Mickey Kantor.  Before that, he worked in the district office of Brad Sherman, whose Congressional District overlaps with AD-43.  But in addition, Gatto has a good story: he grew up in the district and has lived there basically all his life, and he has been an activist since his teens, based on what I’ve heard.  So it would seem that Gatto has all sorts of things going for him.  First, if there is a race and it heats up, having friends like Hertzberg, Frommer (who used to represent AD-43 before Krekorian did), Congressman Sherman, and Mickey Kantor could be helpful for getting the resources that are necessary to win a race like this.  Second, his experience in Democratic activism could play a positive role in getting the endorsements of Democratic clubs, which matters for footsoldiers and small-dollar contributions.

This would be a special primary election, meaning that the top Democrat advances to the runoff and basically has an easy path to the seat.  But in a race between these three, at this early stage you have to like Gatto’s chances.  As the California Majority Report said a few months ago:

At least one fresh face is also considering the seat: Silverlake attorney and community leader Mike Gatto. A former top aide to Congressman Brad Sherman (D-Sherman Oaks), Gatto is young and telegenic and close to many of the area’s Democratic activists with a formidable fundraising base that could make him a contender.

I think the analysis is spot on.  Also, if you follow through to the CMJ piece linked above, you should also know that I did contact Eric Bauman and he mentioned that he is not currently interested in the 43rd, which should put that rumor to rest.

Down in Los Angeles, we have a special election for Council District 2 coming up on September 22, as the former Councilmember from that District, Wendy Greuel, was just elected City Controller.  And you may be thinking–why are you cluttering a statewide site with a City Council election?  Well, if you talk to anyone who knows Los Angeles politics, they’ll tell you that there are three top-tier candidates for the seat: School Board Member Tamar Galatzan; former Paramount VP Chris (Christine) Essel; and…Assemblymember Paul Krekorian from the 43rd AD.

You may also be asking yourself why someone would leave the Assembly to run for a City Council seat.  It might seem like a step back, but it’s actually a no-brainer.  There’s good job security, as LA City Councilmembers can serve three four-year terms; there’s a lot of influence over a large budget and a geographic area that’s roughly the size of state assembly seat; and the fact that we have the highest-paid city council in the nation doesn’t hurt either.  Add to that the fact that Krekorian hasn’t been given any positions of prominence in the Sacramento hierarchy, and you can see why he might be thinking that his political future in the Assembly may be limited, even though he’s only in his second term.

There’s expected to be a runoff for the seat, as none of the three top candidates are expected to break the 50% threshold that would be needed to avoid one, and Krekorian is definitely expected to be in the runoff, which would take place December 8.

And if Krekorian wins, of course, that sets off the musical chairs cascading yet again, as there would then be a special election in AD-43–which is what this post is about.  I have had my ear to the ground about who would be the top-tier candidates in case of such a vacancy, and here are the three names that have come up so far:

Adrin Nazarian.  Nazarian is Krekorian’s chief of staff, I believe for his district office, and has apparently recently moved into the 43rd district recently, which seems to indicate a desire to run for that seat.  Nazarian has a few things going for him: he would almost certainly have Krekorian’s endorsement, which would matter in the district, and as a district rep it seems like he would know the lay of the land pretty well, in addition to having roots in the Armenian community, which constitutes roughly 15% of the district’s population.

Michael Amerian.  Last seen pulling a relatively surprising third-place finish in the primary for the Los Angeles City Attorney race, Amerian has shown he can run a strong campaign and can be expected to be a formidable campaigner.  Rumor has it that he just recently switched his voter registration to Democratic, which could be a problem in a Democratic district where a significant portion of the ground game will depend on volunteers from Democratic clubs–I haven’t been to Norwalk to confirm that for myself.

Mike Gatto.  Mike is currently an attorney at the powerhouse firm Mayer Brown LLP, where he works alongside the likes of Dario Frommer, Bob Hertzberg and Mickey Kantor.  Before that, he worked in the district office of Brad Sherman, whose Congressional District overlaps with AD-43.  But in addition, Gatto has a good story: he grew up in the district and has lived there all his life, and he has been an activist dating from when he was Sargeant-at-Arms for the Los Angeles County Democratic Party when he was 18.  So it would seem that Gatto has all sorts of things going for him.  First, if there is a race and it heats up, having friends like Hertzberg, Frommer (who used to represent AD-43 before Krekorian did), Congressman Sherman, and Mickey Kantor certainly can’t hurt when it comes to raking in the cash that’s necessary to win a race like this.  Second, his experience in Democratic activism might play a good role in getting the endorsement of Democratic clubs, which matters for footsoldiers and small-dollar contributions.

This would be a special primary election, meaning that the top Democrat advances to the runoff and basically has an easy path to the seat.  But in a race between these three, at this early stage you have to like Gatto’s chances.  As the aforementioned Dario Frommer wrote on CMR some time back:

At least one fresh face is also considering the seat: Silverlake attorney and community leader Mike Gatto. A former top aide to Congressman Brad Sherman (D-Sherman Oaks), Gatto is young and telegenic and close to many of the area’s Democratic activists with a formidable fundraising base that could make him a contender.

Dario might be biased, but I think the analysis is spot on.  If you follow through to Dario Fromer’s piece, you should also know that I did contact Eric Bauman and he mentioned that he is not currently interested in the 43rd, which should put that rumor to rest.

Down in Los Angeles, we have a special election for Council District 2 coming up on September 22, as the former Councilmember from that District, Wendy Greuel, was just elected City Controller.  And you may be thinking–why are you cluttering a statewide site with a City Council election?  Well, there is a crowded field for this election, which in and of itself will make it interesting.  If you talk to anyone who knows Los Angeles politics, they’ll tell you that there are three top-tier candidates for the seat: School Board Member Tamar Galatzan; Paramount VP Chris (Christine) Essel; and…Assemblymember Paul Krekorian from the 43rd AD.

You may also be asking yourself why someone would leave the Assembly to run for a City Council seat.  It might seem like a step back, but it’s actually a no-brainer.  There’s good job security, as LA City Councilmembers can serve three four-year terms; there’s a lot of influence over a large budget and a geographic area that’s roughly the size of state assembly seat; and the fact that we have the highest-paid city council in the nation doesn’t hurt either.

There’s expected to be a runoff for the seat, as none of the three top candidates are expected to break the 50% threshold that would be needed to avoid one, and Krekorian is definitely expected to be in the runoff, which would take place December 8.

And if Krekorian wins, of course, that sets off the musical chairs cascading yet again, as there would then be a special election in AD-43–which is what this post is about.  Yes, it’s all contingent on Krekorian winning, but that’s a possibility definite enough to make us consider the consequences.

I have had my ear to the ground about who would be the top-tier candidates in case of such a vacancy, and here are the three names that have come up so far:

Adrin Nazarian.  Nazarian is Krekorian’s chief of staff, I believe for his district office, and has apparently recently moved into the 43rd district recently, which seems to indicate a desire to run for that seat.  Nazarian has a few things going for him: he would almost certainly have Krekorian’s endorsement, which would matter in the district, and as a district rep it seems like he would know the lay of the land pretty well, in addition to having roots in the Armenian community, which constitutes roughly 15% of the district’s population (and which usually turns out in greater numbers than the rest of the district).

Michael Amerian.  Last seen pulling a relatively surprising third-place finish in the primary for the Los Angeles City Attorney race, Amerian has shown he can run a strong campaign and can be expected to be a formidable campaigner.  Rumor has it that he just recently switched his voter registration to Democratic, which could be a problem in a Democratic district where a significant portion of the ground game will depend on volunteers from Democratic clubs.

Mike Gatto.  Mike is currently an attorney at the powerhouse firm Mayer Brown LLP, where he works alongside the likes of Dario Frommer, Bob Hertzberg and Mickey Cantor.  Before that, he worked in the district office of Brad Sherman, whose Congressional District overlaps with AD-43.  It would seem that Gatto has all sorts of things going for him, especially the ability to raise money–having friends like Hertzberg, Frommer (who used to represent AD-43 before Krekorian did), Congressman Sherman, and Mickey Cantor certainly can’t hurt when it comes to raking in the cash that’s necessary to win a race like this.  Gatto also grew up in the district, which never hurts when it comes to understanding what would motivate the voters.

This would be a special primary election, meaning that the top Democrat advances to the runoff and basically has an easy path to the seat.  But in a race between these three, at the early stage you have to like Gatto’s chances.  As we saw in the CD-32 race back in May, demographics and turnout matter, and people who are tied into the Armenian community do have an advantage.  But the presence of more than one Armenian candidate, if it pans out that way, will certainly have a diluting effect, especially if other candidates end up filing.  And if the fundraising advantages that Gatto has actually pan out, it seems to me like Gatto would be an early favorite–for a race that may not even happen.