Everyone else is doing such a great job on the budget that I don’t have much to say on that issue except what Mark Leno said. But I will note that this issue of budgetary intransigence by radical Republicans is about to go national, and how we’re dealing with it in California should be a lesson for the nation. I hope the Democrats are paying attention.
In his exit interview yesterday, Karl Rove tipped the hand the Republican strategy to resuscitate the President’s approval ratings.
Mr. Rove also said he expects the president’s approval rating to rise again, and that conditions in Iraq will improve as the U.S. military surge continues. He said he expects Democrats to be divided this fall in the battle over warrantless wiretapping, while the budget battle — and a series of presidential vetoes — should help Republicans gain an edge on spending restraint and taxes.
In fact, the President has been signaling this for a while, saying that he will veto any appropriations bill that doesn’t fall in line with his spending targets. Never mind that Presidents don’t set budget policy, or that Bush allowed massive spending increases when the Republicans were in charge of Congress. This is a play-to-the-base strategy to fire up conservatives by picking a massive fight with the Democrats over spending priorities. And it will essentially force the budget items to be decided by overriding the veto, with a… wait for it… 2/3 vote.
Now, there are a LOT more Republicans in Congress that would have to be pressured into accepting the budget than Republicans in the California Legislature. So I’m pessimistic about the strategy for squeezing them. I’m more interested in how we can win the rhetorical battle, and how we can learn from the California situation and empower the spine-challenged Democratic leadership from not caving on this one and doing the right thing.
While not many people are really watching the budget battle here, they most certainly will be watching the national battle and possible government shutdown. There will be reminiscenses of 1995 and Newt Gingrich’s shutdown, and caution from the Beltway media that Congress should learn from Gingrich’s mistake and pull back. That is absurd, since the President would be triggering the shutdown, and the budget priorities the Democrats are putting together are very much in line with what the public desires. Still, we are seeing in California that disgust with the budget stalemate reaches across party lines and sours the public mood on government overall. I believe this is the GOP strategy, to again make government a four-letter word and hope that their new “outsider” challengers (who will either be lobbyists or rich businessmen) can capitalize on it.
The key here, I think, it to define the tactic early, before Congress returns to session. Fabian Nunez, Don Perata, and Governor Schwarzenegger are now excoriating the Republican obstructionists for delaying vital services for Californians. This probably happened a few weeks late. The Republicans have dug in their heels and have no exit strategy; in fact, not exiting IS the strategy. To combat this on the national level, Nancy Pelosi and her leadership team need to be thinking about this now instead of reacting to the inevitable veto. They need to be warning Republicans in Congress that tying themselves to the President is committing political suicide, and that they’re part of Congress too, and approval ratings cut both ways (especially in the Senate, where 22 Republicans are up for re-election as opposed to just 12 Democrats). The best way to frame this is much like the Social Security debate. We need to start proudly defending the budget priorities and make it completely toxic to act against them.
Maybe some of my colleagues who are little more plugged into the state battle would like to chime in. How can we win this battle of ideas?