The down-ballot Field poll was released this morning. So, I’ll run down the numbers, starting with the Constitutional offices.

Lt.Gov

Jackie Speier has moved into a small lead over John Garamendi, apparently all those billboards aren’t paying off for him like he would have hoped.  Liz Figueroa has continued to slide into oblivion.  Currently, Speier has 30%, Garamendi 25%, and Figueroa 8% with 37% undecided. It was thought by some that Figueroa would act as a spoiler for Speier, but that doesn’t seem to be playing out.  Figueroa has only 7% of women and only 5% in Speier’s and Figueroa’s home region of Northern California.  She is a bit stronger in Southern California at 10%, but this is probably just due to Latino identity politics.  Speier’s large lead amongst women might push her over the top in a primary that is dominated by women.  She currently leads 33-21-7 on that figure.  On the GOP Side, Tom McClintock is running unopposed.

Attorney General

Jerry Brown‘s name recognition, (and a Time Magazine feature story didn’t hurt on that account), without much in the way of campaign spending, has allowed him to retain his large lead over Rocky Delgadillo.  Currently Brown has 51%, Delgadillo 24%, and 25% are undecided.  I would go deeper into the numbers, but Brown seems to be dominant in all the crosstabs.  On the GOP side, Poochigian is running without siginificant opposition.

Controller

This race has flown under the radar, with a huge 63% undecided.  Joe Dunn is clinging to the slimmest of leads with 19 points, while John Chiang has 18.  Unsuprisingly, Dunn is doing better in Southern California (21-14) and Chiang better in Northern California (25-15).  This one will probably get a lot fewer people voting on it that the gov race, and name recognition just might push a state senator over a BOE member.  But, at this point, it’s too close to call.  And on the plus side, both campaigns in this race have run great campaigns.  I’m excited to see either man win.  On the GOP side, Strickland has a 43-32 lead over Maldanado.

Treasurer

Bill Lockyer is running unopposed.  On the GOP side, Keith Richman is leading small government loon and current BOE member Claude Parrish at 18-17 with 65 undecided.

Secretary Of State

Deborah Ortiz narrowly leads Debra Bowen at 25-19.  However, this might be merely identity politics as 65% is undecidided.  Ortiz seems to be holding her home region of Sacramento and NorCal (28-15), but with undecideds so high, it’s hard to glean much from the poll.  And another thing, am I totally missing something, or does Ortiz not have a campaign website?  That would be pretty crazy, and if so I would definitely have to publicly give my support to Bowen.  C’mon folks, technology is a big part of that job, get with the 21st century.  McPherson is running unopposed for the GOP nomination.

Prop 82

Prop 82 has been crashing in support recently.  And the news today is not good either.  Currently it’s losing by a margin of 41 Yes to 46 No.  The scare tactics used by the No on 82 folks seem to be working.  And I must admit, I’ve heard several very progressive people admit that they are a bit nervous about voting for the program.  I think at some level people just don’t like instituting such a large program via direct democracy.  Also, part of this is the additional taxes.  Those on the right jsut hate government, those on the left seem to want to use those taxes for other purposes.  However, I think it’s going to be a close race for 82.  The SacBee notes that:

Despite the new poll numbers, supporters say they believe they will win. They expect to do well among Democrats, who will be more likely to go to the polls to vote in the gubernatorial primary and other hotly contested Democratic races, said Nathan James, a spokesman for the Yes on 82 campaign.

“We always knew this election was going to come down to the wire,” James said. “We have a number of advantages going into this election.”

But opponents of Proposition 82, including the California Chamber of Commerce, have been pushing the arguments that the program would be too costly and would potentially drive private preschools out of business.

Pamela Zell Rigg, president of the California Montessori Council, said opponents were hoping voters would turn against the measure as they learned more about it. (SacBee 6/3/06)

So, obviously turnout will be key in all these races. But for Prop 82, where both parties get to vote and Ds are skewed in favor of 82(53-33) and Rs are skewed against 82 (25-65), the “who” of turnout will be key.  If many Republicans stay away from what is an otherwise uninteresting primary election for them, it might allow 82 to pass.

The League of Pissed Off Voters‘ mission is to engage pissed off 17-35 year olds in the democratic process to build a progressive governing majority in our lifetime. We currently have 17 official chapters around the country.

I’m active in the San Francisco chapter, and I wanted to share our voter guide with you and hear the Calitics perspective on it. In particular, I think Prop 81 and the Controller’s race are interesting ones that aren’t getting any press.

We raised money to print 20,000 of these bad boys, which we’re distributing around town. We haven’t used a dime from candidates or candidate committees.

Governor: Phil Angelides!
Lieutenant Governor: Jackie Speier!
Secretary of State: Debra Bowen!
Attorney General: Jerry Brown
Controller: John Chiang
State Senate District 8: None of the Above
State Assembly District 12: Janet Reilly!

Prop 81 – Library Construction Bond: No
Prop 82 – Universal Preschool: Hell Yeah

Prop A – Stop Homicides Now: Hell Yeah
Prop B – Ellis Act Eviction Disclosure: Hell Yeah
Prop C – Transbay Terminal Authority Shuffle: Yes
Prop D – Laguna Honda Patient Admission and Rezoning: No

See below the jump for our explanations of these.

Governor: Phil Angelides!

Phil Angelides is the anti-Arnold. While Arnold has protected his rich corporate donors, Angelides has a strong history of standing up for children, teachers, and workers. He’s the only major candidate with the guts to call for corporations and wealthy citizens to pay their fair share to rebuild California’s education and social services. Phil also told us he would seriously consider lowering the voting age so that 16 and 17 year olds who pay taxes can get some representation.

Lieutenant Governor: Jackie Speier!

The LT does a little bit of everything, and holds powerful roles on commissions governing California’s universities, environment, and economy. We need an LT who shares our values and has the knowledge to make California’s bureaucracies work for us. Jackie Speier has a strong progressive voting record in the State Senate, and she’s outlined plans to provide Cal Grants to more college students, increase the number of guidance counselors in public schools, and reduce emissions from the state’s buses and trucks.

Secretary of State: Debra Bowen!

The Secretary of State is in charge of our elections. Everyone who remembers Florida, Ohio, and the various Diebold debacles knows how important it is to have a solid Secretary of State. Debra Bowen is a State Senator who has been a leader in technology issues. She was the first Senator with a webpage, and wrote a bill to make legislative info available online. She’s headed investigations into Diebold and it’s her goal to kick their sketchy machines out of California and replace them with secure, open-source voting machines. Amen!

Attorney General: Jerry Brown

We’re going with Jerry Brown, because back in the day, he was the baddest progressive California has ever seen. As Governor, he was a trailblazing environmentalist and he vetoed the death penalty. Then he ran a grassroots campaign for president that refused donations larger than $100. But then some of our friends Oakland aren’t too happy with what he’s done as Mayor, with his “tough on crime” act that hasn’t really involved the community. Brown is running against LA City Attorney Rocky Delgadillo, who seems cool, but also makes up nervous. He supports the death penalty, and he also has a “tough on crime” vibe that might not focus as much on rehabilitation and community involvement as we would like.

Controller: John Chiang

The Controller is California’s Chief Financial Officer, responsible for keeping an eye on our money, running the state’s payroll, and conducting audits to make sure nothing shady is going on. We like both of the major Democratic candidates, but we’re going with John Chiang because he has the most experience with these kind of technical but important issues. Chiang has worked for the IRS, and he serves on the Board of Equalization, so he knows all the crazy details about how California’s tax system works. He’s never held office before, but he’s worked for Democrats like Gray Davis, Barbara Boxer, and Don Perata. Chiang is running against Joe Dunn, a State Senator from Orange County with an impressive progressive voting record. He was knee deep in the investigation into how Enron ripped off California. But by a hair, we’re going with Chiang.

State Senate District 8: None of the Above

We hate to leave this one blank, but we can’t get behind any of these candidates. We like some things about Leland Yee, like how he opposes the death penalty and the work he’s done for immigrants. But he has a horrible record on renter’s rights, he’s made some sketchy enivormental votes, and he hasn’t really accomplished much in the State Assembly. Mike Nevin is a San Mateo County Supervisor who has some good things to say about “smart growth” and affordable housing. But he supports the death penalty and we’re not convinced that he’ll look out for renter’s rights.

State Assembly District 12: Janet Reilly!

She may not have much political experience, but you’d never know it if you hear Janet Reilly talk about her plans for fixing California. She has detailed proposals for providing health care to every Californian, restoring our environment, and improving our schools. She’s against the death penalty, for tenant protection, and would consider giving 16 and 17 year olds the right to vote. Meanwhile, her opponent, Fiona Ma, has accomplished little on the Board of Supervisors, has a lousy record on tenants’ rights, supports the death penalty, opposes lowering the voting age, and has offered few details on what she would do in Sacramento. Fiona even ducked the Bay Guardian, refusing to meet with them to talk about her campaign!

Prop 81 – Library Construction Bond: No

This one sounds simple: Why wouldn’t you support a $600 million bond for building libraries? Well, here are a couple reasons:
– Prop 81 allocates money only to the construction of libraries- the money can’t be used for librarians, books, computers, or other resources, only building.
– Also, the funds allocated in Prop 81 must be matched by the city trying to use them. This means that the strapped cities that need new libraries the most wouldn’t be able to access Prop 81 funding because they wouldn’t be able to spare the money necessary to match the funds. Meanwhile, Prop 81 would subsidize library construction in more affluent communities, thereby increasing the digital divide.

Our low-income communities absolutely need the access to books, computers, and other technological resources that libraries provide, but brand-new, empty library structures? Not that helpful, and this is all Prop 81 promises.

Prop 82 – Universal Preschool: Hell Yeah

Prop 82 provides free preschool to all kids by raising taxes only 1.7% for only the super rich (individuals who make over $400K or couples who make over $800K). It’s pretty simple: kids who go to preschool do better. A study showed that every dollar we invest in preschool will save $2.62 in juvenile hall and other costs related to dropouts.

Prop A – Stop Homicides Now: Hell Yeah

Our city is facing a crisis of homicides and gun violence, with young people in low-income communities (like Western Addition, Mission, and Bayview/Hunter’s Point) particularly impacted. Prop A creates a citizens council to address the systemic causes of homicide. This council will be in charge of $10 million a year for the next three years for innovative violence prevention programs including job training, after school programs, and summer internships, as well as a fund to support the families of homicide victims. Prop A is a critical step in addressing homicide in our city proactively and thoughtfully.

Prop B – Ellis Act Eviction Disclosure: Hell Yeah

Prop B requires real estate sellers to tell potential buyers if there were any Ellis Act evictions on a property, and if any of the tenants were disabled or elderly. The Ellis Act allows landlords to get out of the rental business by evicting their tenants. But it’s being abused by real estate speculators who buy rental properties because they want to kick out the tenants and convert the rentals into condos. Prop B protects renters without restricting real estate sales.

Prop C – Transbay Terminal Authority Shuffle: Yes

This one’s a little wonky, so stick with us. The Transbay Joint Powers Authority is in charge of building the Transbay Terminal to link BART, MUNI, and CalTrains, which is crucial to the future of public transit in the Bay Area. Prop C would do three things to shuffle the Transbay Authority: 1. It requires the Mayor him/herself attend TJPA meetings (instead of the Mayor’s designee) 2. It replaces the MUNI director with the Supervisor who heads the Metropolitan Transportation Commission. 3. It puts the Board of Supervisor who represents the neighborhood (financial district, SOMA, etc.) on the Transbay Authority. The Transbay Terminal is important enough that we think the Mayor should be personally involved. We also think it makes sense to have the Supervisor in charge of public transit there also instead of the MUNI director, because the Transbay Terminal is a lot bigger than just MUNI.

Prop D – Laguna Honda Patient Admission and Rezoning: No

Laguna Honda is supposed to a hospital for seniors. Recently they’ve been admitting a lot of patients suffering from mental illness and substance abuse problems, some of whom have gotten violent and caused a lot of trouble. We understand that this is a problem that needs to be fixed, but Prop D isn’t the way to do it. Prop D doesn’t provide for how to care for the patients it would remove from Laguna Honda, meaning a lot of them would get kicked out on the street. The sketchiest part about Prop D is how it rezones public land all over the City to allow for private nursing homes to be built. Huh? What’s that got to do with Laguna Honda?

The good folks over at No On 82 are creating some very nice little ads featuring teachers, principals, and parents stating how Prop 82 would create a massive bureacracy, a “parent tax”, and generally be disastrous for the state b/c uh, rich people would be a little less rich…and uh… well, you get the jist.

The problem is: they are all fake.  Yup, all actors.  Those “teachers” that you’ll see, uh, maybe they taught a summer stock class.  From Matier and Ross:

Take, for example, the new ad opposing actor and director Rob Reiner’s universal preschool initiative, Proposition 82. It warns of a costly new bureaucracy and even the possibility of a “parent tax,” and features a school principal, teachers and kids.

They’re all actors. According to the call that went out from Ava Shevitt Casting in Santa Monica, these were the requirements:
***
Teacher: “Female/Asian, Caucasian, 40-45 … professional manner, warm & engaging, authoritative but gentle.”
***
Student: “Female, multi-ethnic, 13-15 … dark hair, appealing, warm & engaging, bright, adorable, thoughtful, insightful, poised, inspirational.”
***
California Teachers Association officials, who support the preschool initiative, aren’t amused by the fake school crew.  “Using actors to portray teachers is misleading and deceptive,” sniped Sandra Jackson, spokeswoman for the union. (SF Chron 5/21/06)

The fact that the No on 82 folks are stooping to using fake teacher is more than a little funny/ironic.  Can’t they find one teacher who doesn’t like 82?  Well perhaps not…

As an aside, check out that article for a funny Jerry Brown story. 

Moving to Dem on Dem ads and back to a subject I touched on earlier: SD-8’s bizarre ads.  Mike Nevin wants to appear again on these pages.  This time he tries to tie Yee to Schwarzenegger.  Well, ok, but then he takes a page out of “Girly-Man” Schwarzenegger’s book.  He puts a picture of Yee’s head onto a Hans and Franz picture with Ahnold. I think it’s funny that we get in a huff when Arnold uses this stuff, but then we do it to each other.  Meanwhile Lou Papan is running clean ads on TV and in mailers.

Here it is, click on the ads to make them bigger.

Mike Nevin’s Pump You Up Ad

The SacBee published an article outlinin Alpine County’s preschool program.  The program offers free preschool for nearly every child in the county:

Like most 4-year-olds in California, Megan and Nathan Cruz spend their days away from home, in a bright colorful room where they draw, sing, socialize and learn the letters of the alphabet.
Unlike most children in California — whose parents pay an average $7,500 a year for child care — the twins attend a preschool that costs their parents nothing.

The unusual program in Alpine County — a rugged 727-square-mile stretch of the Sierra south of Lake Tahoe — offers both a glimpse of California’s rural past and a vision of what could become the state’s educational future.

Using public money generated by cigarette taxes, Alpine County has already done what the rest of California is now contemplating under Proposition 82 on the June ballot. For the past three years, it has provided free preschool to nearly all children whose parents want it.
***
Kati Bell has two kids at the preschool — 3-year-old Sophie and 5-year-old Ryan. The family moved to Alpine County this fall, in part because of the preschool. In Palo Alto, Bell said, she paid $150 a day for her children’s preschool. Now preschool is free and her children couldn’t be happier.

“They love it here,” Bell said. “If I come too early, they say, ‘Can we stay?’ ” (SacBee 5/20/06)

Prop 82 holds a lot of promise for the state.  Yes, it has its fair share of flaws.  But,as many reports have esitmated, we get $2.78 back from every dollar we invest in preschool programs.  Now it’s up to the people of California if they want to make that investment.

Prop 82 held a huge lead in the February Field Poll. In that poll, 82 was up by a 21-point margin (55-34). In last week’s poll, 82 had only a 13-point lead (52-39). Yes, that is still a sizable lead, but losing that much support that quickly can’t be a positive for its supporters. But, I think there is another worrisome number hidden in the bottom of the big table of statistics in the poll. If you scroll down to the bottom of that table there is a breakdown by whether the respondent had heard of 82 before the survey. Respondents that hadn’t heard of 82 (44 % of respondents) strongly supported it (55-33-12). However, respondents that had heard of it gave a support/opposition ratio that was within the margin (49 46 5).

The reason that this is worrisome for the future of 82 is that there will be lots of “education” in the next 6 weeks. 82 sounds good on a ballot, but it can be spun negatively. Its costs are uncertain. Its public face (Reiner) is enduring some challenging times and can be villified by the right. In other words, what I’m saying is that Prop 82 is in a classic position of vulnerability to a media campaign.

UPDATE: PPIC’s statewide education survey is out. They have a 11 point lead for 82 as well, but at only 50% support, passage is still in doubt.

Proposition 82 – which would fund voluntary preschool education for all four-year-olds in California through a
tax on wealthy state residents – is currently supported by 51 percent of likely voters, with 40 percent opposed. Democrats (64%) are more likely than independents (50%) and Republicans (38%), and Latinos (63%) are more likely than whites (47%), to back the measure. Is access to preschool perceived as a problem in the state today?
Seven in 10 likely voters express at least some concern that children in lower-income areas may not be able to attend preschool.

More on the flip…

So, yes, it appears that 82 has lost its momentum. Of course there are the numerous politicians who have removed their support. Schwarzenegger couldn’t endorse it due to the radical right wing of his party.  But the SF and LA Chambers of Commerce are taking a little bit of a risk supporting 82, especially as the statewide Chamber is basically now the lead opponent.  By the by, is Rob Reiner running for governor?  No?  Really, Becuase you would sware that he is based upon the website name for the opposition to Prop 82: www.stopreiner.org.  I mean WOW!  That’s some serious pandering to the right.  They always need somebody to hate…this time it’s Reiner.  It’s actually quite unfortunate.  Prop 82 should be judged on its merits…not some BS about Reiner.

But at least part of the progressive shift away from 82 is due to the fact that elected officials are growing tired of legislation bypassing the traditional channels. Would Perata support a preschool program if it was brought in the legislature? Probably? Would it pass? Hell no. Unless the money can be found without taxing, the supermajority rules allow the Reps to block progressive legislation like that. While Burton isn’t in the legislature anymore, that must be part of his logic as well. With the current wave of initiatives, the legislators began quite supportive. They supported the mental health bill that passed a few years ago, they supported the stem cell initiative (for the most part), but now they are realizing that if this tide doesn’t turn, their budget will be eaten alive by the initiatives. Of course in this case, preschool won’t be taken out of the general fund, but rather this new tax on the wealthiest Californians. But, at least in the case of Angelides, this is a tax they already plan on using for other purposes.

Preschool is a worthy cause. And 82, while somewhat flawed, is the best chance of that happening anytime in the near future. Until we reform our governance system to remove these unreasonable obstacles to majority will, we are left with the second best choice. In this case, that is 82.

Well, not opposition, but not endorsing, and definitely not “fantastic” (thanks Julia).

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s campaign said Wednesday he would not endorse a universal preschool initiative that filmmaker Rob Reiner has championed, citing the governor’s long-standing opposition to tax increases.

“Put simply, the governor does not support tax increases and is opposed to Proposition 82 because it will raise taxes,” Katie Levinson, communications director for the Schwarzenegger reelection campaign, said in a statement.(LA Times 4/13/06)

I can understand Schwarzenegger’s hesitancy over the tax increase; he is a Norquist-Republican after all (now, there’s a nice meme).  But, from what I understood, he had agreed to stay out of this race entirely if he wasn’t going to endorse it (more as a personal favor to Rob Reiner than anything else).  Well, I still haven’t heard anything directly from the Governor’s mouth, but I’m not expecting to.  He tends not to say much of consequence when can. 

If you want to endorse it, do that.  If you don’t, then just say that you oppose it.  Arnold needs to learn that Sacramento is not Hollywood.  You can’t just smile and say nothing.  He needs to be leader.  Or more accurately, we need a NEW governor who is going to be a leader.