Blog Roundup , 3/25/06

Today’s blog roundup is on the flip. Teasers: Pombo’s immigration failure, BradBlog on the radio, more CA-50 Republican shenanigans, and some more Arnold doublespeak.

That’s all, folks.

State Senate races rundown

(We *do* care about state legislative races. We do, we really really do. And kudos to Nathaniel for taking the initiative to do this. More, please! – promoted by jsw)

I know a lot of people don’t care about state legislative races, but I figured somebody should! I decided to start with a rundown of the State Senate races since the Assembly is so overwhelming.

There are only 20 Senate races this year. Read my analysis below the fold…

*SD-02* (North Coast) – Wes Chesbro (D) is term-limited. The favorite is former Assemblywoman Pat Wiggins.

*SD-04* (Cascade) – Sam Aanestad (R) is safe for reelection.

*SD-06* (Sacramento) – Deborah Ortiz (D) is term-limited and running for Secretary of State. The favorite is former Assemblyman Darrell Steinberg.

*SD-08* (San Francisco) – Jackie Speier (D) is term-limited and running for Lieutenant Governor. The Democratic primary is tough to call between Assembly Speaker Pro Tem Leland Yee, former Assemblyman Lou Papan, and San Mateo County Supervisor Mike Nevin.

*SD-10* (Alameda County) – Liz Figueroa (D) is term-limited and running for Lieutenant Governor. The Democratic primary is a three-way contest between former Assemblyman John Dutra, former Assemblywoman Ellen Corbett, and Assemblyman Johan Klehs. Dutra, the most moderate, is favored.

*SD-12* (Northern San Joaquin Valley) – Jeff Denham (R) is running for reelection, and may face a tough contest from former Assemblyman Fred Keeley.

*SD-14* (Fresno/Modesto area) – Chuck Poochigian (R) is term-limited and running for Attorney General. This is a lock for Assemblyman Dave Cogdill.

*SD-16* (San Joaquin Valley) – Dean Florez (D) is safe for reelection.

*SD-18* (Bakersfield and the Rural Desert) – Roy Ashburn (R) is safe for reelection, now that he has given up his dreams of Congress.

*SD-20* (San Fernando Valley) – Richard Alarcon (D) is term-limited and running for the Assembly. The Democratic primary is competitive between L.A. City Council President Alex Padilla and Assemblywoman Cindy Montanez.

*SD-22* (Los Angeles) – Gil Cedillo (D) is safe for reelection.

*SD-24* (Los Angeles) – Gloria Romero (D) is safe for reelection.

*SD-26* (Los Angeles) – Kevin Murray (D) is term-limited. The seat is a lock for Assemblyman Mark Ridley-Thomas.

*SD-28* (L.A. County Coast) – Debra Bowen (D) is term-limited and running for Secretary of State. The Democratic primary favors former Assemblyman George Nakano.

*SD-30* (San Gabriel Valley) – Martha Escutia (D) is term-limited. The Democratic battle is a three-way between Assemblymen Ron Calderon and Rudy Bermudez, with former Assemblyman Marco Firebaugh a distant third.

*SD-32* (Inland Empire) – Nell Soto (D) is term-limited and running for the Assembly. The Democratic primary is a showdown between two Assemblymembers – Joe Baca Jr. and Gloria Negrete McLeod.

*SD-34* (Orange County) – This is one of only two Senate seats (along with SD-12) with a real chance of switching. Joe Dunn (D) is term-limited and running for Controller. Republicans have made big gains in voter registration over the last year by aggressively registering new voters. The Democrats should worry. The Republican nominee is Assemblywoman Lynn Daucher; the Democrats are split between Assemblyman Tom Umberg and Orange County Supervisor Lou Correa. Umberg should be favored, but an extramarital affair gave way to Correa’s run in the first place. California Democrats should work hard to keep this vulnerable seat. On the bright side, AD-69 (Umberg’s seat) will probably go to an Hispanic Democrat, maybe one more liberal than Umberg.

*SD-36* (Orange/San Diego Counties) – Dennis Hollingsworth (R) is safe for reelection.

*SD-38* (Northern San Diego County) – Bill Morrow (R) is term-limited and running for Congress in the CD-50 special election. Assemblyman Mark Wyland is a lock.

*SD-40* (San Diego, Imperial, and some of Riverside Counties) – Denise Ducheny (D) should be safe for reelection in this Hispanic-majority, Democratic seat.

So in conclusion, all Senate seats are safe for the current party except for Denham in SD-12 and the SD-34 open seat. The real battle is in a number of Democratic primaries like Negrete McLeod/Baca in San Bernardino County, Yee/Papan/Nevin in San Francisco, Calderon/Bermudez/Firebaugh in Eastern L.A. County, and Dutra/Corbett/Klehs in the East Bay.

There is also a special election this summer in SD-35 in Orange County, John Campbell’s (R) seat that he resigned when he was elected to Congress last winter. Needless to say, it is safe for the GOP, and whether it is Assemblyman Tom Harman or Dana Point Councilwoman Dianne Harkey who wins, the winner won’t need to seek reelection until 2008 anyway.

An Open Letter to the People Making Me Nuts

(The Big Dog is a little cranky. That’s OK. We all get cranky sometimes. I’m cranky all the time. But he’s right. Sometimes you just gotta cowboy up and do what needs doing. – promoted by jsw)

To the Goddamn People Making Me Nuts…an Open Letter.

[This is meant less for this people at Calitics…but I think it needs circulation. Repost at will. TBD.]

We are in a war. I don’t mean Iraq, athough that’s a reality too, but a war within this party that is driving me completely nuts. (That may not be a far drive according to some…but that’s another story…) We are in a war to Take Back The House and save our Constitution.

I read on a daily basis, Daily Kos, MyDD, SwingState at least and usually several more including My Left Wing. I find more and more Party hatred at exactly the time when we need the unity of all Democrats and Independents more than we have since the Elections of 1968. Oh, you don’t remember the elections of 1968?

I do. Humphry versus Nixon. Kent State. Chicago Convention. Dead, literally, in the Streets. Blood flowing in more than one state. Some of it mine. Continuation of the VN War versus a humane view that might have ended it sooner.

Do you know the margin of victory that carried the Electoral College? Oh that’s right….you don’t remember the election and probably haven’t studied Practical Politics, have you? Oh….you just got into politics in 2002?
Well, my fault for assuming you would at least have studied the exisiting literature on how to win an election.

Nixon, that miserable excuse for a human who was so twisted he scared his own people, won by ONE VOTE PER PRECINCT! Yep. One vote per precinct.

Now we face the possibilty, the good possibility of Taking Back The House, and we spend our time online fucking around with Cegelis and Duckworth….the DCCC being evil…The DLC controlling the Party (when they don’t even have a say)…the Vets running for office being above reproach when the House and Senate used to be nearly universally made up of Veterans and too many other things to recite.

So I’ve got a suggestion:
Get off your asses and get into the streets for some candidate or another and knock on a door. If there isn’t one in your area you can work for then call Francine Busby’s office  and volunteer for Virtual Phone Banking or Mike LaFevers office in FL-13 or one you are going to hear a lot about soon Stacey Tallitsch in Lousiana-1 (New Orleans). Get off your ASSES! One vote per precinct made the difference once, it could again in 2006 and 2008.

The difference in 2006 and 2008 won’t be made on the Blogs, much as I love them, but on the streets helping people register to vote, request an Absentee Ballot, making them even remember the election, raise money, making phone calls, sending letters, stuffing envelopes and a hundred other tasks it takes to win a Congressional or Presidential Election.

You can howl at the moon, which is fine after the work is done and the top shelf tequila is out, but not when you really want to make a difference. Making a difference means doing all sorts of things you really don’t want to do.

Doorknocking isn’t fun. Canvassing at a supermarket isn’t fun. Stuffing envelopes isn’t fun. Making 100-200 phonecalls isn’t fun. But those are the things that will win elections!

If you are convinced the Party needs to be re-made…more power to you. But that takes years. Ask Gov. Dean. That is a very long term process. The 2006 elections are only 227 days away! Have you done every thing you can so far?

Most of us haven’t. So get started. It doesn’t have to be a fulltime obsession…give the Candidate a few hours each weekend and the Field Director will think you are a hero!

Be sure we don’t lose by one vote per precinct. If we work hard enough…we can win the House…and then we can start lots of things that will give the Republicans hives! Think investigations.  It can’t be done without you.

Remember John Kennedy’s famous line:
"Ask not what your country can do for you, but rather what you can do for your country."

I guess it sounds like bullshit today. It didn’t then…

Doolittle’s Kickback Scam

The Sacramento Bee takes Representative John Doolittle (CA-4) to task in an editorial this morning. The Bee’s editorial staff has finally decided that it might be time to question Doolittle’s extraordinary financial arrangement with his wife. An arrangement that efficiently moves 15% of all campaign and political action committee contributions directly into the Doolittle family bank account.

With this scheme the Doolittles have hopelessly blurred the distinction between campaign money and personal money. This arrangement raises obvious questions that Doolittle must answer for his constituents. How is his wife’s taking a 15 percent cut of political contributions any different from the congressman himself saying he will take a 15 percent cut? How is this different from donors, instead of writing out a $1,000 check to the campaign, writing out two checks – an $850 check to the campaign and a $150 check to the Doolittles?

The Bee notes that the Doolittle’s contribution skimming scam was working so well for his political action committee that last year they expanded it to cover contributions to his personal campaign accounts.

The congressman expanded the deal last summer. Beginning in June 2005, Julie Doolittle’s Sierra company began to receive a 15 percent commission for contributions to her husband’s re-election committee, the John T. Doolittle for Congress Committee. That is potentially a lot more money for the Doolittle household. The re-election committee has always received more contributions than the leadership PAC. In the 2004 election cycle, for example, that committee brought in more than $900,000 in contributions. A 15 percent commission would be $135,000.

If this isn’t an invitation to bribery, I don’t know what else to call it. It provides contributors a direct link to a quid pro quo arrangement with Doolittle. The money moves effortlessly into Doolittle’s bank account. The appropriate letter gets written.  The appropriate earmark is attached to the appropriate bill.

Hat tip to nightswimming for reading the Bee with the morning coffee.

CA-50 – Latest Polling

The most recent publicly available poll regarding the special election to replace convicted felon Randy “Duke” Cunningham in the 50th District continues to be bad news from most of the candidates in the crowded field.

A SurveyUSA poll conducted the weekend of March 18-19, finds just four candidates with 20% or higher “favorable” public perception:

Francine Busby (D)  38%
Brian Bilbray (R)  23%
Howard Kaloogian (R)  20%
Eric Roach (R)  20%

As far as familiarity goes, Democrat Busby is far ahead of all candidates. The poll found that most of the vast number of Republican candidates are simply unknown in the district. Only former congressman Brian Bilbray comes close to Busby in name recognition.

When asked about the candidates, district residents had the following degree of unfamiliarity with the top tier candidates.

Francine Busby (D)  20% (unfamiliar)
Brian Bilbray (R)  29% (unfamiliar)
Eric Roach (R) 32% (unfamiliar)
Howard Kaloogian (R) 40% (unfamiliar)

Perhaps the most disappointing revelations of the poll relate to State Senator Bill Morrow, who has achieved a rare political double-double. Despite his years in public service, Morrow is unfamiliar to 35% of the voters in predominantly Republican district and his unfavorable rating is higher than his favorable rating. Morrow’s recent mud slinging support from the California Republican Assembly isn’t likely to do much to improve his already shaky image.

CA-50 Republicans Attack Each Other

Six months ago, California State Senator Bill Morrow had to see himself as the candidate to beat in the race to replace Randy “Duke” Cunningham in the 50th District. Morrow has represented parts of the district for years. He has solid conservative credentials. Yet, as the campaign has played out Morrow has become the odd man out among his right wing soul mates: Howard Kaloogian and Eric Roach. Not only is Morrow the 3rd Stooge on the Republican right, but carpetbagger lobbyist, Brian Bilbray, a Republican moderate (oxymoron), is the favorite to pull in the most votes in the crowded Republican field.

Morrow’s campaign has hardly been stellar and Morrow himself is pretty boring. Now with his back to the wall, he has to do two things in the two weeks before the April 11 Special Election. First, he has to differentiate himself from Kaloogian and Roach. Second, he has to slow Bilbray down.

More on “When Republicans Attack” follows:

Morrow has the backing of the right wing California Republican Assembly (CRA) and it appears that the CRA is helping do the dirty work of attacking Bilbray leaving Morrow to find a way to stand out from the nut job backdrop where he blends into Kaloogian and Roach.

The CRA has put up a website that accuses Bilbray two horrific sins. It calls him a liberal – no evidence for that. And, it calls him a lobbyist – which he is. It’s a nice piece of work that manages to juxtapose a photo of Bilbray with Jack Abramoff and give the impression that the two are shaking hands while transferring a wad of cash. Good stuff.

More germane to the actual race, the CRA has sent out a mailer to the registered Republicans in the district that not only paints Bilbray as a close associate of Abramoff, but which also calls Bilbray to accounts for his support of Metabolife and his efforts to keep the FDA from restricting the use of ephedrine as a diet supplement. The CRA accuses Bilbray of causing 155 deaths through his efforts to protect Metabolife’s main diet source of income. Bilbray’s motivation, according to the CRA was the $22,000 in campaign contributions he received from Metabolife executives and employees.

Morrow is under pressure to abandon the race and give either Kaloogian or Roach a shot at Bilbray. It looks like Morrow isn’t going down without taking a few shots of his own. The problem for Republicans is that his shots are generating hits on their most viable candidate.

Hat tip to the always excellent San Diego Politics.

CA-50 Morrow’s Little Helpers Come Clean

Yesterday, we posted regarding the California Republican Assembly’s (CRA) attacks on fellow Republican Brian Bilbray. The CRA took full credit for the hit pieces in today’s San Diego Union Tribune.

Mike Spence, the president of the conservative Republican group, was unapologetic.

“All the people who talk about polls say Bilbray is No. 1,” Spence said, “In order for a conservative to win, for our candidate to win, we had to hit.”

The group has endorsed state Sen. Bill Morrow, saying they believe Bilbray, though a Republican, is too liberal to lead the district. Morrow disavowed knowledge of the mailer.

Los Angeles Times columnist, Patt Morrison, called the CRA “the bemuscled bouncer of California GOP politics.”  And, the CRA is playing its role as protector of GOP virtue in the 50th District congressional race.

The cornerstones of the CRA’s ideological purity are a total aversion to taxes and immigrants. Now that might sound like a bunch of Libertarians to you and me, but the CRA has a two decade old endorsement from Republican saint, Ronald Reagan, on which it hangs it ideological hat.

With these guys on you side, Bill Morrow, you will loose.  You can take it to the bank.

Duncan Hunter And Brent Wilkes

Laura Rozen of War and Piece dusts some of the remaining pieces of the once grand and powerful Brent Wilkes’ empire and finds some interesting fingerprints.

Certainly, Duke Cunningham’s prints are all over the place, but Laura also discovers evidence of the deep involvement of another San Diego County Republican, Representative Duncan Hunter (CA-52).

Hunter’s helping hand is apparent as far back as 1994, when he started the electronic document conversion bandwagon rolling in congress. It is important to understand, that the process that Hunter started was designed to directly benefit a small group of San Diego entrepreneurs, whose expertise and technology was never requested nor required by anyone in the Department of Defense or the United States government for that matter.

The result of Hunter’s involvement was the non-development of any actual technology and the creation of a number of companies designed specifically to take advantage of the potential payday that Hunter’s efforts were creating.

This was the environment from which Brent Wilkes would emerge. Wilkes would work with Steve Caira to not develop document conversion technology that they would then sell to the government at inflated prices.

Read Rozen and then read this Complaint and Jury Demand that puts Wilkes, Caira, Cunningham and Hunter together in an alleged conspiracy to defraud American taxpayers.

Blog Roundup, 3/24/06

Very fast blog roundup for March 24, 2006 can be found on the flip:

No, seriously, that’s pretty much it today.