(We *do* care about state legislative races. We do, we really really do. And kudos to Nathaniel for taking the initiative to do this. More, please! – promoted by jsw)
I know a lot of people don’t care about state legislative races, but I figured somebody should! I decided to start with a rundown of the State Senate races since the Assembly is so overwhelming.
There are only 20 Senate races this year. Read my analysis below the fold…
*SD-02* (North Coast) – Wes Chesbro (D) is term-limited. The favorite is former Assemblywoman Pat Wiggins.
*SD-04* (Cascade) – Sam Aanestad (R) is safe for reelection.
*SD-06* (Sacramento) – Deborah Ortiz (D) is term-limited and running for Secretary of State. The favorite is former Assemblyman Darrell Steinberg.
*SD-08* (San Francisco) – Jackie Speier (D) is term-limited and running for Lieutenant Governor. The Democratic primary is tough to call between Assembly Speaker Pro Tem Leland Yee, former Assemblyman Lou Papan, and San Mateo County Supervisor Mike Nevin.
*SD-10* (Alameda County) – Liz Figueroa (D) is term-limited and running for Lieutenant Governor. The Democratic primary is a three-way contest between former Assemblyman John Dutra, former Assemblywoman Ellen Corbett, and Assemblyman Johan Klehs. Dutra, the most moderate, is favored.
*SD-12* (Northern San Joaquin Valley) – Jeff Denham (R) is running for reelection, and may face a tough contest from former Assemblyman Fred Keeley.
*SD-14* (Fresno/Modesto area) – Chuck Poochigian (R) is term-limited and running for Attorney General. This is a lock for Assemblyman Dave Cogdill.
*SD-16* (San Joaquin Valley) – Dean Florez (D) is safe for reelection.
*SD-18* (Bakersfield and the Rural Desert) – Roy Ashburn (R) is safe for reelection, now that he has given up his dreams of Congress.
*SD-20* (San Fernando Valley) – Richard Alarcon (D) is term-limited and running for the Assembly. The Democratic primary is competitive between L.A. City Council President Alex Padilla and Assemblywoman Cindy Montanez.
*SD-22* (Los Angeles) – Gil Cedillo (D) is safe for reelection.
*SD-24* (Los Angeles) – Gloria Romero (D) is safe for reelection.
*SD-26* (Los Angeles) – Kevin Murray (D) is term-limited. The seat is a lock for Assemblyman Mark Ridley-Thomas.
*SD-28* (L.A. County Coast) – Debra Bowen (D) is term-limited and running for Secretary of State. The Democratic primary favors former Assemblyman George Nakano.
*SD-30* (San Gabriel Valley) – Martha Escutia (D) is term-limited. The Democratic battle is a three-way between Assemblymen Ron Calderon and Rudy Bermudez, with former Assemblyman Marco Firebaugh a distant third.
*SD-32* (Inland Empire) – Nell Soto (D) is term-limited and running for the Assembly. The Democratic primary is a showdown between two Assemblymembers – Joe Baca Jr. and Gloria Negrete McLeod.
*SD-34* (Orange County) – This is one of only two Senate seats (along with SD-12) with a real chance of switching. Joe Dunn (D) is term-limited and running for Controller. Republicans have made big gains in voter registration over the last year by aggressively registering new voters. The Democrats should worry. The Republican nominee is Assemblywoman Lynn Daucher; the Democrats are split between Assemblyman Tom Umberg and Orange County Supervisor Lou Correa. Umberg should be favored, but an extramarital affair gave way to Correa’s run in the first place. California Democrats should work hard to keep this vulnerable seat. On the bright side, AD-69 (Umberg’s seat) will probably go to an Hispanic Democrat, maybe one more liberal than Umberg.
*SD-36* (Orange/San Diego Counties) – Dennis Hollingsworth (R) is safe for reelection.
*SD-38* (Northern San Diego County) – Bill Morrow (R) is term-limited and running for Congress in the CD-50 special election. Assemblyman Mark Wyland is a lock.
*SD-40* (San Diego, Imperial, and some of Riverside Counties) – Denise Ducheny (D) should be safe for reelection in this Hispanic-majority, Democratic seat.
So in conclusion, all Senate seats are safe for the current party except for Denham in SD-12 and the SD-34 open seat. The real battle is in a number of Democratic primaries like Negrete McLeod/Baca in San Bernardino County, Yee/Papan/Nevin in San Francisco, Calderon/Bermudez/Firebaugh in Eastern L.A. County, and Dutra/Corbett/Klehs in the East Bay.
There is also a special election this summer in SD-35 in Orange County, John Campbell’s (R) seat that he resigned when he was elected to Congress last winter. Needless to say, it is safe for the GOP, and whether it is Assemblyman Tom Harman or Dana Point Councilwoman Dianne Harkey who wins, the winner won’t need to seek reelection until 2008 anyway.