(Hat tip to Kos – promoted by SFBrianCL)

Carl Luna, a political science professor at San Diego Mesa College, pens a piece on the San Diego U-T’s blog about CA-50 describing the confluence of events that will lead to Francine Busby’s victory on Tuesday.

Basically, he describes the process as being a perfect storm for a Dem victory: unopposed Dem who can play towards the middle, one corrupt, moderate Rep, running against a bunch of wingers in the primary, who has to play to the right, wingers who don’t go away quietly after the first election, and so on…

1. Run multiple conservative GOP candidates in the primary along with one moderate. This would guarantee that the district’s conservative would be split, giving the moderate a plurality without his winning the hearts, minds and votes of the majority of the party.

2. Have the moderate be a current Washington insider well acquainted with (and tainted by) the DC culture of corruption rather than being a bright new, energetic and well-financed newcomer.

3. Have a Democratic candidate who runs unopposed in the primary and is therefore able—and smart enough– to position herself safely to the middle on all major issues while the Republicans savage themselves to out-right each other.

4. Run a Democrat as candidate who has the charisma of a Kennedy and character of an Eisenhower. Meanwhile, end up with a Republican candidate who kind of resembles Richard Nixon in a speedo. (San Diego U-T 6/1/06)

I think this is a problem for the NRCC.  They are getting so desperate to come up with anything about Busby to attack her on.  The woman is practically your grandmother, and who wants politicos attacking your grandmother? 

Luna continues:

5. Have the defeated conservative Republican candidates not rally faithfully behind the party standard bearer ….

6. Have the moderate Republican nominee run on a hard-right immigration reform plan as his wedge issue…

7. Have a Republican President with an approval rating lower than the average used-car salesman …Throw in a Republican controlled congress that would kill to have an approval rating as high as said President’s.

8. Have both parties’ national congressional committees pour millions of dollars into nuclearly (or is it nucularly?) bombastic negative ads, with the Republican ads being so over the top as to be absurd. …

9. Finally, in the last weeks of the campaign have one of the most divisive figures in Republican national politics come to stump for the Republican moderate to help shore up the district’s conservative base but, at the last moment, have the crown prince of Republican moderation, also planning to stump for the candidate to shore up moderate and independent voters, chooses not to do so in a snit because the candidate has publicly dissed the crown prince’s moderate compromise plan on immigration reform.

Yup, that pretty well summarizes it.  I think that he left out the fact that Busby will ultimately be a far better asset to the district, but we can forgive him for getting lost in the horse race at a moment like this.

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From Robert at Left in SF: a Prop D ad, that is, quite frankly, bizarre. The real stock photo, is of a “serious great grandmother.”  Apparently somebody kicked her ass in Laguna Honda.  With Photoshop. Or hopefully with the open source Gimp, a photoshop clone.

Preschool provides students the best opportunity to learn English.  Language facilities are best developed earlier rather than later.  Prop 82 will ensure that more non-native speakers will have the access to preschool.

Of the 20 children in the state-funded preschool class at Charles Mack Elementary School — on Brookfield Drive in south Sacramento — 18 come from homes where a language other than English is spoken. Along with the obvious advantages of life in a classroom-turned-farm — the chance, for example, to bawk-bawk-bawk like chickens — Cindy Aboukhadijeh’s class gives students access to a wealth of new vocabulary and ideas.

Even if your parents speak English at home, at 4 years old you have a ways to go before mastering the language. But, especially for 4-year-olds whose first language is Spanish or Hmong or Vietnamese, quality preschool can improve the transition to elementary school.

On Tuesday, California voters will consider a ballot initiative that promises three hours a day of free preschool to every 4-year-old in the state. About 38 percent of these children are English learners, some of California’s economically and academically neediest students.

A major goal of Proposition 82 is to shrink the achievement gap that has plagued California’s schools for decades. English learners, among the fastest-growing and poorest-performing members of the school population, are a big focus of the initiative.

People on both sides of the debate over Proposition 82 say quality preschool can offer English learners a chance to catch up with their English-speaking peers before the achievement gap grows too wide. The longer they go without gaining English proficiency, the more likely English learners will stagnate academically, research shows.(SacBee 6/1/06)

It’s just one of the many reasons to support Prop 82. It provides HIGH quality preschool to all of our children.  It provides our teachers with the knowledge that all children enter school with at least some background.

Also in Prop 82 news, the folks at YesOn82.com have released a new report from Martin Carnoy, a professor of Education and Economics at Stanford University.  The report touts the returns that Prop 82 could return.

–$800 million in federal contributions to the preschool program due to the federal deduction for state income taxes. Much of this money would have left California, but instead, it will fund salaries construction, and teacher training, generating up to $1.5 billion in economic impact annually.

–20,000-40,000 qualified teachers, including 10,000 new college graduates who would start teaching in preschools by 2010. By 2016, earnings from additional college graduates could rise to $2.2 billion.(YesOn82.com 6/1/06)

In addition, the report highlights the benefits for our children:

The Preschool for All Act is a great opportunity to improve the state’s educational system and to transform the lives of tens of thousands of low-income children. Many of the
world’s developed countries already provide free preschool for all children beginning at two years old. Extending public education to all its four year-olds would put California on the road to meet the challenges of the knowledge revolution. (PDF Report)

Think about it when you are filling out that ballot.

KQED’s Forum, in an ongoing series on primary coverage, is focusing on the non-major Democrats today.  In its first hour, Susan Rasky will be discussing the Democratic primary for governor.  In the second hour, the program will focus on the CA-06 primary.  Joe Nation and Lynn Woolsey are duking it out in a race I covered yesterday. 

For the audio, check out the podcast feed or the audio archive.