(Nic is doing some great work down in the OC. I love to see these campaign updates. – promoted by juls)

The election of State Senator Lou Correa in Orange County has marked yet another shifting of tides for OC Republicans. What was once thought to be a Republican stronghold in California is now facing erosion much like Southern California’s seaside cliffs. The Democratic Party, bolstered by Howard Dean’s 50 state strategy of leaving no county behind has taken root here in the O.C.

The Democratic rising tide started in 1996 with the election of Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez and has become stronger throughout the years with the ’98 election of Joe Dunn to State Senate and Lou Correa to Assembly. In the last election cycle, the biggest fight in Orange County was the Senate District 34 battle, Lou Correa v. Lynn Daucher.  On election night the outcome for this race was divided by a mere 13 votes, ultimately after every vote was counted it was decided in Correa’s favor by only 1392 http://www.ocvote.co… votes. This race had high visibility not only because it was the most important legislative race in the state but also because it was subjected to two different Republican voting scandals. The $13 voter registration scheme and the Latino community targeted voter suppression letter by Loretta Sanchez’s opponent Tan Nguyen. When I asked about the Correa race Edgardo Reynoso, Correa’s Field Director stated, “elections like this are simple, in highly contested races we can not be talking to mid and low-propensity voters the same way we talk to high-propensity voters, micro targeting and narrow casting within communities of interest gets Democrats to the polls. This is what put Lou over the top and what will work long term countywide.”

The SD 34 victory for the OC Democratic party http://www.ocdemocra… is a small sign of things to come. Frank Barbaro, Chairman of the DPOC is now working to strengthen the current infrastructure so that in 2008 Orange County will be the battleground to watch in California. He’s hired an elite team that consists of Mike Levin, as the Executive Director, Melahat Rafiei, as the Political Director and Edgardo Reyonso as Field Director.

Right now, priority number one for the team is to win the Special Election and retain the only Democratic seat on the Board of Supervisors. Come February 7th though, the team will in the words of Levin be working to “field an army aligned with labor, community leaders and Democratic clubs that support viable candidates at all levels.”

After working here as an organizer for the Special Election and meeting the young leaders that have been recruited, I predict the races to watch in 2008 will be the 68th and 70th AD’s and the 35th SD. 

If you’d like to be a part of the wave and meet the team, join in the GOTV effort. Phone banks and precinct walks take place Monday – Sunday at the DPOC headquarters.

(Anybody have ideas? We helped, but what were the other factors? – promoted by juls)

It seems that lots more candidates and voters showed up this year for the ADEMs than in the past. Juls and I were wondering, in email, how that happened.

In my own AD and a few other nearby ones I believe the surge came because a Congressional candidate (Steve Young, CA-48) and I publicized the ADEMs a lot. My AD (73) had twice as many candidates running as in 2004 and more than twice as many voters. From what I’ve read similar things happened all over the state. (Or is this incorrect? Please comment if your experience was otherwise.)

What caused this explosive growth? How did delegate slots in sleepy red ADs somehow become competitive?

I suspect some of it was the CDP’s registration process for candidates. I find that when people make a written comittment to something they’re more likely to follow through.

Another part of it was the blogs and email. South Orange County was certainly not the only area where there were email blasts promoting the ADEMs. But 2 years ago DFA was trying mightily to get their people to run for ADs as well, and I’m told that the biggest surges generally come in the year immediately following a Presidential election. (Which this year wasn’t.)

Probably an additional reason for enthusiasm was the Democratic Congressional victories in 2006.

And by the way, I don’t think it’s just happening in the ADs. The Orange County Democratic Central Committee has a much-needed new lease on life, too!

I feel like someone’s putting something in our water. Where’s all the increased interest coming from?

In Today’s LA Times, George Skelton goes after Arnold Schwarzenegger the tax/fee issue.  SO, before we start, definition wise, here’s what I think the distinction to be.  A fee is charged specific users of specific services that the state provides.  Taxes are just general charges that are not tied to specific services.  Tax increases, under Prop 13, are required to have asupermajority.  Fees can pass with a simple majority (and, of course, a gubernatorial signature).

So, remember how Arnold made lots of “no new taxes” pledges? Well, it turns out that if you call it a fee, they are exempted too.  Yay!!

One of the pleasures of writing a Sacramento column is that politicians read it and occasionally change their minds. I’m thinking that must be what happened to Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger on taxes.

First, he apparently has bought into my oft-written contention that taxes, as Oliver Wendell Holmes put it, “are what we pay for a civilized society.” In order to enhance the quality of life in an increasingly congested state, taxes sometimes have to be raised.

Schwarzenegger, who previously preached the no-tax gospel, seems to have converted. Why else would he have proposed to sock doctors and hospitals with a new tax to help pay for universal healthcare in California? The docs would pay the state 2% of their receipts and the hospitals 4%, raising an estimated $3.5 billion.(LAT 1/15/07)

Follow me over the flip.

So Arnold decides that taxes are ok now?  Funny thing, Skelton notes, because these same fees that he is proposing are the same ones that Arnold’s campaign cited as a very large chunk of the “massive $18Billion Angelides Tax increases”.

Last year, when Angelides suggested a similar “play or pay” concept – requiring employers to either provide the coverage or pay the state to do it – Schwarzenegger smeared him as a liberal taxer. An absurdly high $7-billion price tag was placed on Angelides’ idea – now essentially Schwarzenegger’s – and that became the biggest piece of the Democrat’s “$18-billion tax increase.”

Angelides’ taxes “would drive California’s economy backward,” the governor repeatedly charged.

The $7-billion and $18-billion figures were distortions shamelessly crafted by Schwarzenegger’s hired-gun political gurus. They quickly left the state after his reelection, scattering to various presidential campaigns.

But they left behind mounds of balderdash for Schwarzenegger to gingerly step through – on top of his own demagogic campaign rhetoric.

Well, actually, I heard that Steve Schmidt is still in town, but I’m not one to quibble over details.  You know, I protested when Westly came up with that $10B, partially because a big chunk was these fees.  But Garry South kept feeding the ammunition to Arnold’s campaign, and off we went trying to come up with a solution.  We want health care, sure, but how do we resolve the fact that Arnold, in campaign mode, said a lot of ridiculous stuff, much of which he had no intention of honoring.

So, we play semantic games.  And I’m not even sure that even approaches my biggest concern for this plan.  My biggest concern: 4%.  4%? WTF? What kind of insurance can you possibly pay for with 4% of say, a $20K cashier at Wal-Mart or Safeway? I’m sorry, but $800 will buy jack squat on the open insurance market, even in a nice state sponsored group.  Safeway, Ralph’s, and perhaps even Wal-mart, likely pay more than 4% now. So what will this end up being? Yup, a big windfall for EVERY employer, with the good citizens of California left holding the bill.  I’m sorry, we don’t need that kind of plan.

So, I return you to what I think I will return to every time the health care issue comes up.  Shiela Kuehl.  SHe has reintroduced her single payer bill that was vetoed last year.  It is the most sensible, pragmatic, and effective plan on the table.  It’s likely the way we will have to get to eventually, even if we pass a form of Arnold’s plan.  Let’s just cut through all the crap and move on down to a real health care plan.  Mr. Schwarzenegger, I’m sure you could find Sen. Kuehl’s number.  Why don’t you give her a call?  You want to really be remembered as the governor who changed California? Sign Sen. Kuehl’s bill.