UPDATE: Well, I spoke too soon. Dan Walters apparently got some blowback on the re-enact the VLF theory.  From today’s Capitol ALert PM email:

Dan Walters backs away from an earlier column suggesting the governor could reinstate the vehicle license fee, because a deal with local governments prevents that. “The net effect of this complex deal was to punch a semi-permanent, $6 billion hole in a budget that was already dangerously out of balance. So while Schwarzenegger was still promising to end ‘crazy deficit spending’ and balance the budget, he was, effectively, making it virtually impossible to do so,” he writes.

Oh well, so much for another one of Dan’s brilliant ideas. Maybe he’ll retract his global warming denials soon. /update

I can’t believe I am writing this. I’ve not hidden my general distrust of Dan Walters. But, he makes a good point yesterday, and so…what Dan Walters said:

Rescinding the car tax cut would be both the easiest way for Schwarzenegger to close the budget gap because it wouldn’t require a legislative vote and, politically, the most difficult, given his vociferous advocacy during his 2003 campaign for governor.

He is, as the old saying goes, hoisted on his own petard – which literally translates into being hurt by his own gaseous emissions.(SacBee 12/9/07)

Of course, most of us understand that if the VLF had not been eliminated back in the day, we wouldn’t be dealing with a budget “crisis” today. It’s just that simple.  But, given his harsh rhetoric, it would be challenging for Arnold to pursue such a course.  But a bold course it would be. But let’s back up a minute:

Schwarzenegger has indicated in private conversations with budget stakeholders that new revenue would be considered in return for spending cuts. The conventional wisdom is that new taxes are politically impossible because Republican legislators would never supply enough votes to meet the required two-thirds margin.

Whoa, while Walters generally veers in bizarre directions on his analysis, his information is generally solid. So, at least the germ of considering increasing revenue is in his head. That’s a start.  But, it’s also true that Republicans in the Legislature will have nothing to do with increasing revenue.

The interesting thing about the VLF is that there is no vote required. You see, it was never really a tax cut, it’s a state backfill to local governments. And if the governor declares that we can no longer afford that backfill, municipalities can resume collection of the VLF.  And the state can hold on to their billions of backfill.  See, one stroke of the pen killed the VLF, and one stroke can bring it back.

The only question here: Does the action hero have the courage to look past his past bravado and see what’s best for the state. I wouldn’t hold my breath on this one, though.

Disclosure: I’m quite proud to do some work for Yes on 93. Also in orange.

Last week, I sat down with Assemblymember John Laird of Santa Cruz/Monterey, to talk about Prop 93, the environment, and civil rights.  I’ll be editing up more of the video where we talk about these issues in more detail. However, I wanted to share this video first.

John Laird has a long history of fighting as both a progressive activist and now in the Assembly. He’s worked extensively on promoting a sustainable economy, and has spent much of his time in the Assembly by going through each of California’s non-discrimination laws to ensure that the rights of all Californians are honored. And given his experience as Assembly budget chair, few have the breadth or depth of knowledge about the priorities of the California government. After all, as he told me, the budget is the one document that represents all of our priorities, our hopes, and our dreams for the state. Flip it for more.

So, why does he think that Prop 93 is important? Well, I’m pretty sure he says it better than I ever could, so I’ll summarize it with this sentence. “The outcome depends on … long-term fights to take the knowledge we’ve learned and the relationships we’ve made to accomplish these goals.” See, beyond the personality conflicts of yesterday, today, or tomorrow, we still have the goal of accomplishing progressive action. Yet, as they say, Rome was not built in a day. And it certainly wasn’t built why Romulus was looking for a new gig in Sicily.

Take, for example, Assemblyman Laird’s efforts to resolve the civil rights bills in California code that I discussed above. Each bill requires a conversation here, a little shove there; in the end, it’s a lot of time. And if each legislator has got their eye on their next position up, down, or anywhere around in public service. Don’t get me wrong, I laud their dedication to public service. I simply suggest that we are best served when we have experienced legislators that are focused on accomplishments rather than the next rung.

So, check out Prop 93, and ask questions.  I’ll be around here for a little while or I’m always available at brian AT calitics DOT com. It’s a complicated measure, but it’s one that will help put California in a better position for the future.

We need organizations who aren’t afraid of what is politically possible and talk about was is morally right.  Today the CNA placed a full-page ad in 10 Iowa papers arguing strongly for not-for-profit health care, Medicare for All, taking the example of Dick Cheney’s multiple heart problems, and noting that if he wasn’t receiving the finest in government-run health care, he’d be dead by now.

The patient’s history and prognosis were grim: four heart attacks, quadruple bypass surgery, angioplasty, an implanted defibrillator and now an emergency procedure to treat an irregular heartbeat.  For millions of Americans, this might be a death sentence. For the vice president, it was just another medical treatment. And it cost him very little.

Unlike the average American, the president, vice president and members of Congress all enjoy government-financed health care with few restrictions or prohibitive fees. They are never turned away for pre-existing conditions or denied care for what an insurance company labels “experimental treatments.”

The rest of us deserve no less.

We call on the presidential candidates to support HR 676, the National Health Insurance Act- an expanded and improved Medicare for all that:

• provides complete medical, dental, vision and long-term care

• eliminates deductibles, co-pays, hidden fees

• allows you to choose your doctor, lab, hospital, health care facility

• is completely portable and not tied to employment

• is free from interference or second-guessing by insurance companies.

We should have these conversations out in the open.  The vagaries of what it politically possible should never be the outer edges of the debate.  Let’s actually find out if America rejects a Medicare-for-all system; they certainly haven’t rejected Medicare.  It takes an organization like the CNA to jumpstart this debate.  Good for them.

WooHoo! We are almost as good as everybody else. I suppose the key word there is almost.  Equality California released their annual scorecard, and a record number of legislators scored a 100 by voting for civil rights.  In fact, 61 of of the 120 legislators scored a 100, all Democrats of course.

You can see the full scorecard here (PDF), but interestingly there were only 4 0s in the Senate, and 8 0s in the Assembly.  A lot of that can be attributed to the seeming lack of controversy surround Sen. Carole Migden’s SB 105, which allows “Simplifies the process of filing joint state income tax returns for registered domestic partners. Creates a worksheet California registered domestic partners will use to file jointly beginning with the 2007 tax year. ” IN other words, it’s a tax clean-up measure for a right (filing joint taxes) that was bestowed already.

Also getting many pro-LGBT votes was AJR 29, which  encourages the federal government to pass hate crimes legislation, specifically the Local Law Enforcement Hate Crimes Prevention Act.  I’m guessing that has to do with Republicans being ToughOnCrime^TM or something like that.

And the Governor, well he got an 88. It seems he mistakenly vetoed Marriage Equality, because I couldn’t possibly imagine our liberal, well-intentioned governor ever thinking that we don’t all deserve the freedom to marry the one we love.  Oh, right…he wants the “voters to decide”. Nice cop out, Arnold.  

One more irony about the healthcare crisis: the politicians in charge of fixing it…are guaranteed healthcare through a system that is not just “single-payer” (in terms of being financed by the government instead of insurance companies), but beyond is actually government-run.

Nurses are running ads today in 10 Iowa newspapers pointing out that this means that Dick Cheney, with his heart trouble, would probably be dead now if he were an ordinary American forced to search for cardiac care in a thicket of mercenary insurers and heartless HMOs.  Cheney gets guaranteed healthcare; we get squat.

We’ll take a look below, also at some recent highlights from the healthcare movement…cross-posted at the National Nurses Organizing Committee/California Nurses Association’s Breakroom Blog, as we organize for GUARANTEED healthcare on the single-payer model.

The Wall St. Journal notes:

Vice President Dick Cheney would “probably be dead by now” if not for his federally funded health care, according to an eye-catching ad calling for universal health care that will run Monday in ten Iowa newspapers. The ad is union-funded by the California Nurses Association and its national arm, the National Nurses Organizing Committee, which represents 75,000 nurses.

You know you’ve succeeded when this happens:

The vice president’s office said the ad isn’t worth more than a no comment. “Something this outrageous does not warrant a response,” said Megan Mitchell, a spokeswoman for Cheney.

MarketWatch noted that it is medical professionals who are giving the idea of guaranteed healthcare new life.

Among the good news this time, is that the American College of Physicians is calling for an examination of how a single-payer system would work in the U.S.  This is a great move forward for one of the nation’s premier organizations of Doctors.  

While health-care reform may play second fiddle to the war in Iraq among voters this election season, it appears that the domestic issue is taking on new life thanks to medical-industry professionals….Welcome to the 2008 elections, where medical professionals are turning up the heat in favor of a universal, single-payer system that represents a radical departure from what most of the major presidential candidates are proposing. They know that such a system is a long shot at this point, but the numbers in their camp are growing.

Elsewhere in the drive for guaranteed healthcare…

…I’m not sure who Brad Warthen is–he blogs for The State newspaper in South Carolina-but he’s become one of the most eloquent voices in support of genuine healthcare reform.

…The Charleston (West Virginia) Gazette continues its impassioned stumping for single-payer…

We are building a grand coalition.  Meanwhile, who really likes the insurance corporations except for the politicians whose pockets they line (to let them win office, and guaranteed healthcare).

cross-posted @ One Million Strong & Daily Kos

                                 

                                                                   michelle, barack and oprah, des moines, ia

Debates/Forums

December 13, 2007 – Johnston, Iowa, Des Moines Register Democratic Debate

December 17, 2007 – Boston, MA

January 15, 2008 – Las Vegas, Nevada

                         

                                                                barack in new hampshire

Obama Apperances and Campaign Events

December 10, 2007 – Study Break with Barack Obama, Las Vegas, NV

December 10, 2007 – Barack in L.A., Los Angeles, CA

December 11, 2007 – Generation Obama in Seattle, Seattle, WA

December 13, 2007 – Caucus for Change Precinct Parties, Iowa

The Caucus Center

Obama Action Center

Jesse, Jr. to Jesse, Sr. You’re Wrong on Obama

Obama Gains Show Volatility of Iowa Contest

Obama Campaign Launches Web Site, Documenting Clinton Attacks

                                     

                                                     npr debate, des moines, ia

Audio/Video

NPR Audio Debate; Iowa City; NPR, Obama Talks Taxes, Trade at NH High School; Oprah in Des Moines, part one; Oprah in Des Moines, part two; A Call To Serve; South Carolina Rally, Video in its Entirety

Wall Street Journal, Op-Ed Piece, by Senator Barack Obama, Homeland Insecurity

Obama Ad Launch on Television in Nevada

Vote Obama

Hillary Losing Backers to Barack?

The presidential campaign of Hillary Clinton, the Democrat frontrunner, is facing a wave of defections by supporters to Barack Obama, as an aura of “inevitability” about her nomination fades.

With Oprah Winfrey, the talk show host and Obama enthusiast, challenging former president Bill Clinton for star power on the campaign trail, the coronation of Hillary has been put on hold.

A few days ago, Helen Quarles peeled off the Hillary for President bumper stickers from her car and replaced them with Obama ’08.

“I didn’t think anybody could turn me away from Hillary,” said Quarles, who worked as a volunteer for Clinton’s first Senate election campaign in New York. “I liked her and was very fond of Bill.”

Quarles now lives in South Carolina, which holds its primary election next month. “In the South, a lot of people don’t like Hillary, so I felt it was up to me to turn things around for her. I really wanted her to win, but there’s something about Obama,” she said. “To me, he is the one who is going to make a difference.”  TimesOnline

                           

Let the Fun Begin!!

Yes, this is what the Hillary Clinton Campaign, who I call affectionately, Team Clinton had to say about going after Barack Obama.

Well, we waited.  And we finally got the magnificent press release from  Team Clinton, last Sunday.  Among the explosive oppo research was the reference to Obama’s aspirations to become president, as early as kindergarten.  Yes, kindergarten.  Oh, and then it expounded on his refined penmanship in kindergarten and third grade with examples of his essays on  “I want to be President” topic.

Well, the media love fest was frenzy this week.  I mean who knew???  Who knew??? Obama wanted to be president in kindergarten!!!  Hell, I wanted to be Diana Ross, one day, then I wanted to be Cleopatra Jones (yes, throwback, y’all), meaning I wanted to be so many people, my parents would just say, “that’s wonderful, sugar.”  Oh, and then Team Clinton strategist, Mark Penn, tries to clean this up on Morning Joe, and said it was a joke.  Do they think people are stupid?  

Sigh, then Team Clinton gets caught up with a tempest in a tea pot.  Their own staff was found out emailing the muslim smear against Barack Obama.  Yes, good old Team Clinton who said, “Let the Fun Begin!!”, now looks sophomoric, at best, in handling all this through the week.

Isn’t Hillary Clinton the one who is vetted, tough, tested?   Yet, doing this stuff?  And is this the best they have on Barack Obama? We must be honest here, the Iowa Caucus is three weeks away and if you want to bring someone down, now is the time, not later.  But kindergarten papers?  Getting caught sending muslim smears?  Is this the tightly run campaign that everyone has bragged about all year?

They look very amateurish, to me.

                           

                                         university of northern iowa, cedar falls, ia

Polls

Well with Iowa Caucus 24 days away, around that, the polls are fast and furious.  All these polls show erosion of Clinton, steady for Edwards and emerging for Obama.  So, it is safe to state that Obama is catching Hillary.

MSNBC/McCLATCHY/Mason-Dixon; Newsweek Poll; Insider Advantage South Carolina Poll; Rasmussen South Carolina Poll; ABC/Washington Post New Hampshire Poll; Strategic Vision Iowa Poll; Zogby Phone Poll; USA/Gallup Poll; Iowa State Poll, this polling data is considered old, by 3 weeks, but was released as new; Public Policy North Carolina Poll

                                   

                                                     michelle and oprah, des moines, ia

The Obama Newness

Clinton Should No Longer Worry About Just Iowa

Obama:  Expand National Service Programs

Democrat Barack Obama on Wednesday advocated a major expansion of the Peace Corps, AmeriCorps and other national service programs, declaring, “This will be a cause of my presidency.”

The Illinois senator said the government is not keeping pace with those who want to help. “We will create new opportunities for all of us to serve,” he said at a rally at Cornell College.

Obama evoked the memory of President Kennedy and his Peace Corps volunteers, saying, “JFK made their service a bridge to the developing world.” Despite growing anti-Americanism around the world, he said, “the American people are not the problem, they are the answer.”

Obama, a senator from Illinois, said he also would expand the all-volunteer military but would “never send them to fight in a misguided war.”

“The burden of service has fallen more and more on the brave men and women of our military,” he said, citing “tour upon tour of duty in a war with no end.” For returning troops, he said, “We will enlist veterans to help other veterans to find jobs, and to pitch in at VA hospitals and nursing homes.”  more

Endorsements/Announcements

4 Rural Democratic County Chairs Endorse Obama; Obama Wins Kansas Straw Poll; Hampton Democratic Chair Endorses Obama; Iowa State Daily Endorses Obama; Illinois Education Association Endorses Obama; Obama Relentlessly Pursues Iowan; Clinton Co-Chair Switches to Obama; Obama Wins Townson Straw Poll; Stanford Professor Named Adviser to Obama

Michelle Obama Meets Women from Seacoast

Robert Reich on Hillary’s desperate tactics by nevadadem

D.C. Events by howardpark

                     

                                           michelle, oprah, barack in columbia, sc

Obama on a Roll

A Princeton professor and outspoken expert on African-American culture said he believes U.S. Sen. Barack Obama’s candidacy for president is an important breakthrough for blacks — whether Obama wins the Democratic nomination for president or not.

But Cornel West believes Obama is going to win.

Speaking Monday night to thousands in the Joe L. Reed Acadome on the campus of Alabama State University, West said he believes the Illinois Democrat, after running behind U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York for most of the presidential race, has turned the corner.

“This man’s on the move, he’s out there running hard and sounding good,” West said. Recent polls show Obama and Clinton in a statistical dead heat.  MontgomeryAdvertiser

Obama Writes Essay for SC Legal Journal

Getting the Vote Out When Campuses Are Empty

Obama’s Musical Draw

Inside the Obama Campaign

                               

                                                             new iowa ad, “our moment”

Obama on Iran by Shaun Appleby

Obama: Publicize Names of Bad Nursing Homes

Obama say Democrats Need Decisive Win to Make Wide Changes

Obama Seeks Consumer Credit Guards

Obama Gets Grammy Nod

While Barack Obama is battling Hillary Clinton in the Democratic race, he can enjoy a small victory from those who vote with ears more than hearts and minds: He is one of five contenders for the Grammy Award for Spoken Word, one of 110 categories this year.

If only nominations on the campaign trail were decided so easily and early in December, just as primary season continues and eyes remain fixed for the 11 months until Election Day.

Like many of Senator Obama’s targets on the trail, the musicians, producers, engineers and recording professionals who will decide this race are single-issue voters looking to improve “the cultural condition and quality of life for music and its makers,” according to the news release.  more, NYT

It Takes a Movement

Experts Praise Obama’s National Service Plan

Obama: PAC Contributions Violated No Campaign Rules

African-American Leaders Rally Behind Barack

Obama Rising Roundup: Iowa Edition Nov 28-Dec 5

Blogs and Websites

One Million Strong; This Week With Barack Obama; The Populista Report; Relentless Liberal; Washington State; Obama Dallas; NYC4OBAMA; NewYork4Obama; Texans for Obama; Republicans for Obama; Vermont for Obama; Independents for Obama; Seattle for Obama; Idaho for Obama; Asians for Obama; Bay Area for Obama; Sacramento for Obama; Families for Obama; Irish Americans for Obama; D.C. for Obama; Obama NH; Obama News Vine; Black Women for Obama; Obama Santa Cruz; Think on These Things; Iowa Republicans for Obama; Another Democratic Woman for Obama; RENObama!; Go Barack Obama

Vulnerable Democrats See Fates Tied to Clinton

Obama’s Ancestral Village Cheers on its Favourite Son

Obama Fits the Bill for President

As is the custom in New Hampshire this time of year, I recently asked a woman in a coffee shop who she was supporting for president. Her answer: “The last candidate I heard speak.” The point is we have a remarkable group of candidates, so it’s no surprise most voters remain undecided.

As the date gets closer, and more and more people ask who I’m with. After many months consideration, I’ve finally made my choice.

Kucinich deserves to do well in New Hampshire. His bold and uncompromising vision needs to be heard.

Bill Richardson would make a great chief executive, with his unmatched experience. But inspiring personal presentation (also called charisma) is a job requirement which is not his strength.

Chris Dodd is consistent on every issue, and is a terrific speaker. I wish his numbers were at least as high as Kucinich. Same goes for Joe Biden – great on the issues, a captivating speaker too. Just not connecting enough.

That leaves the “top three.” Before the Republicans have laid a glove on her, Clinton starts out with 50 percent of Americans saying they would never vote for her. She’s relied on an engineered aura of inevitability. She buys into the all-things-to-all-people style, the course laid out for Kerry by his political director Jeanne Shaheen. Straddling everything doesn’t win.

Some people say it’s time for a woman. Martin Luther King hoped we would judge people by the content of their character, not by their color, or by extension, their gender.

A new direction? What about support for the war in Iraq, her prideful refusal to accept that she made a mistake, her unconscionable vote declaring part of Iran’s government to be a terrorist organization (giving Bush the carte blanche to attack)? Her commitment to keeping combat troops in Iraq and her refusal to say she’d get them all out by 2013? Her blatant pandering to the right on flag-burning, and on late term abortions?

And then there’s planting softball questions for herself to answer.

Experience? Aside from spouse of the president, I can’t seem to remember her cabinet post.  more

Obama:  Keep Americans Warm+Action by Populista

Obama Rising–New York Edition by casperr

Michelle Obama Emphasizes Family Life

                       

                                     lining up in manchester, nh for obama and oprah

icebergslim’s last word:  oprah.  dirty campaign tactics.  change.

This was another weird week for Barack.  It was.  

First it was Team Clinton’s hilariously, funny press release last Sunday.  The cincher was that Barack has had aspirations, ambitions to become president in kindergarten and third grade.  And the witness to his third grade papers, promptly waved for everyone to see.  Oy!!!  Nothing is nicer than to be in a tight race in the early states and folks laughing at the front runner’s pettiness.

Then Barack had to deal with the on-going muslim email circulation.  Obama is not a muslim, he is a Christian and now his name is being used against him.  Well, guess what popped off?  Team Clinton’s staff caught sending and spreading this rumor.  Of course, the culprits were dismissed but the damage is done.  One cannot do anything but view Team Clinton as desperate and will do anything to win, even if it means spreading a lie.  Oh, yes, Team Clinton denounced it, but the damage is done.  It really is.

Then we have Oprah Winfrey.

I am one who has repeatedly said endorsements mean nothing.  It does not.  The candidate must seal the deal him/herself, no endorsement can do that.  But as this week has progressed, so did the energy of the Obama/Oprah weekend.  Suddenly, everyone was talking about it and when Columbia, South Carolina had to move the venue to an 80K stadium, well what else could one say.

I was more interested in what Oprah had to say than Barack.  What was she going to say?  Would it be quoted?  Will people listen?  Well, she gave a home run speech and no one can denounce or argue that point.    This phrase has stayed with me:

“When you listen to Barack Obama, when you really hear him, you witness a very rare thing,” she said in Des Moines. “You witness a politician who has an ear for eloquence and a tongue dipped in the unvarnished truth.”

Yes, a politician who is so eloquent but will not mince words.  He will tell it to you with a tongue dipped in the unvarnished truth.  That statement said it all for me.  It is about time we got a statesman in the White House.  It is about time we got someone who is honest and unafraid of the truth in the White House.  This has been missing so long, we forgot how it sounds.  Since the 90’s to now, we have had to deal with untruth in the White House.  Yes, we have had to deal with it.  And we are tired.  Just sick and tired of it.

Change.  This battle is about change.  It is.  It is not about electability because the three top runners are electable.  No, this argument is change and what kind we want.  After seeing over 18K in Des Moines, over 10K in Cedar Rapids, over 30K in Columbia, SC, what do you think?

People do not go to political rallies for anything.  They go searching and seeking an answer to the question.  And as Oprah Winfrey said, “I am here to tell you, Iowa, he is the one. He is the one!”

Yes. He is.

::

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well, as we see the 30K crowd out to hear barack, oprah and michelle, in columbia, sc, things are moving and evolving at break neck speed.  we are in ties or slightly ahead in many of the early state polls, which shows we have the momentum.  people are showing that they want change and barack obama is that change.  as we move into the holiday season, remember the nastiness and sheer jealousy will continue to increase.  rise above it.  keep your eyes on the prize.  focus on obama and not the drama.

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contact me @ [email protected]

This Week With Barack Obama

Boy, if you managed to stumble upon pages M8 and M9 of Sunday’s LA Times yesterday, you sure picked up a great deal of information.  On M8 was our buddy Robert’s excellent critique of the Times’ coverage of tax policy.  And on M9 was a column by Anthony York of Capitol Weekly, which seeks to explain why legislative Democrats appear to be negotiating with themselves on health care reform.  We learn that the Governor is basically holding his endorsement of Prop. 93 hostage in exchange for getting his way on health care.

Nuñez is scheduled to be termed out of the Assembly in November. If Proposition 93 passes, however, he could serve in the Assembly — and presumably as speaker — for six more years. If the measure fails, Nuñez would immediately become a lame-duck speaker, and talk of a successor would begin Feb. 6.

That’s why he desperately needs Schwarzenegger’s endorsement of Proposition 93. Most observers believe that voters will defeat the measure if it lacks the governor’s seal of approval.

But Schwarzenegger’s support comes at a price. The governor has consistently used Nuñez’s desire to change the term-limits law as leverage in his negotiations with the speaker about healthcare reform, and it seems to be paying off.

over…

We all suspected this was the case, but this appears to be more informed than opinion.  So now we have a negotiation that’s going to affect millions of Californians being predicated on the political career of one man.  Nuñez is completely compromised, not only by needing to get a legislative victory to tout to the electorate, but by receiving the Schwarzenegger endorsement.  Personally, I’m unconvinced that his endorsement is such a slam-dunk; it sure wasn’t in 2005.

We see the direction that the negotiations have taken.  First the Democrats were fully opposed to an individual mandate.  Then they agreed to a mandate with cost controls (exemptions if coverage costs more than 6.5% of income).  Then they’ll drop that number.  First the plan was that businesses would pay 8% in fees; then it became a sliding scale up to 6%; then it’ll be down to 4, or 3, or really whatever the Governor wants.  This is no way to negotiate.  The Governor has absolutely no reason to budge off his numbers.

The Governor clearly cares about leaving a legacy on healthcare reform, and a smart negotiating strategy would tie that legacy to specifics that could not be compromised.  But that’s clearly not how it’s being waged.  And York even explains how a savvy negotiator could turn this right around.

If a (health care funding) plan ends up on the ballot, it would be a tough sell. All previous healthcare initiatives have been defeated. And with current budget forecasts for 2008 putting the revenue shortfall at $10 billion, an expensive reform plan — some estimates put the price tag at $12 billion — would face even more trouble. To win passage, Schwarzenegger will need help from unions and Nuñez. But if Proposition 93 fails in February, the lame-duck Nuñez could be ousted as speaker, losing his bully pulpit to campaign for reform.That would leave Republican Schwarzenegger as the face of a campaign relying heavily on unions and other Democratic-friendly groups while confronting stiff opposition from many business groups.

The Governor actually needs the Legislature as much as the Legislature needs the Governor.  But that’s not how the battle is being fought, because the Democrats have decided to put themselves in a position of weakness.