Little Non-Election Stuff In Bullet-Point Fashion

• According to Dan Walters, all his serious economist friends are telling him there’s no recession yet, theoreticaly speaking.  He might want to read his own paper, about how the Employment Development Department can’t keep up with the demand for unemployment benefits and everyone calling in is getting a busy signal.  Tip to those who apparently aren’t feeling a recession: use the EDD website.

• In a reversal to the Bush Administration, a judge has ruled that George Bush cannot exempt the Navy from environmental laws regarding the use of sonar within 12 miles of the California coast.  Not that Bush followed the ruling of the judiciary the first time, but…

• There are still high hopes for an end to the WGA strike, and meetings in Los Angeles and New York have been scheduled for the weekend (ostensibly to present the contract), but caution lies ahead, as more foreign imports and reality television are likely to wind up on schedules, and less pilots are likely to be shot.  Of course, this was my point all along, and why I underscored the need to grow the union for the benefit of everyone involved and give everything on television the opportunity to unionize.  But jurisdiction for reality and animation was dropped in the most recent round of talks, and there will be consequences to that.

• Our friends at the SEIU are going to start a $75 million dollar, year-long, national campaign in support of universal health care.  I have to think that this is a positive by-product of the coalition built in California around the ultimately unsuccessful effort on health care reform.  If so, then there was nothing unsuccessful about it.  It’s very exciting to see a full media and ground effort to draw the policy distinctions on health care between the parties, and to advocate for a system that makes sense for working families.

Use this as a repository for everything but the election.

The Field Poll’s best guess at turnout: 8.9 million

I complained yesterday about the polling being all over the place, Obama up 6, Clinton up 9 seemed to be the spread. That’s 15 points, whoa. The crucial question seems to be turnout. And we get Field’s answer (PDF) this morning: 8.9 million, a record turnout for a presidential primary. Of course that doesn’t say all that much because we have over 15 million registered voters in the state, and Field estimates there are 23 million Californians eligible, but what can you do?

On mail-in voting: “The Field Poll estimates that of the 8.9 million total votes cast, mail ballots will account for 4.1 million, the largest number for any previous California primary election.”

But the big question for the presidential race that seems to be in everybody’s thoughts is the turnout demographics:

Overall, 70% of California’s primary voters are expected to be white non-Hispanics, 17% Latino, 6% Black/African-American, and 7% Asian/other.  Ethnic voters will comprise a large share of precinct voters (36%) than mail ballot voters (25%), while white non-Hispanics will account for a greater share of mail ballot voters (75%) than precinct voters (64%).

There should be the approximate distribution of voters by age groups – 13% in the 18-29 age group; 15% in the 30-39 group, 20% in the 40-49 group; 30% in the 50-64 group, and 22% in the 65 or older group.  Voters age 65 or older will account for a larger share of the mail ballots (28%) than of the precinct votes (16%).

What to make of that, I don’t know. A strong youth turnout would favor Obama, and a strong female vote favors Clinton, or so the conventional wisdom goes. But with records of all sorts being set this year, perhaps it wouldn’t be a bad idea to toss aside the CW.

Independent voters and the CA primary

(cross posted from terryfaceplace, as a reminder to DTS voters on this Super Duper Tuesday.

Did you know that in the state of California, a person who declines to state their political party when they register to vote has to ask for a Democratic ballot to vote for a Democratic presidential candidate in today’s primary? Who knew? Up until recently, I had no idea.

I know a good number of people who have changed their voter registration to “decline to state” in a sort of quiet protest expressing their disappointment or anger with the actions of the current Congress, but most of them would lean toward Democratic candidates, given the choice. I know a few disgusted Republicans who can say the same. There are others who just see themselves as independent folks, and don’t want to affiliate themselves with any party. And really now, who can blame them for that? There’s also those who will swing to either party, and their votes have to be won, one way or another. But when all is said and done, DTS voters overall tend to be less engaged in politics, and are less likely to vote .

Today the NY Times weighed in on the difficulty in reaching “Decline to State” voters, and the possibility of those voters pushing one candidate or another over the top. . . or not.

In the 2004 presidential primary, out of 2.5 million independent residents registered to vote – their party affiliation is officially listed as “decline to state” – only 207,000 voted for a Democratic presidential candidate, or 8 percent of all votes cast that year, according to figures from the California Secretary of State.

There are a few hurdles to getting DTS voters engaged AND voting. The fact they have to ask for a Democratic ballot to vote for a Democratic candidate is one more bump on that road.

It is also true that decline-to-state voters must be quite motivated – and knowledgeable – to cast a ballot in the Democratic primary. The voters must ask for a Democratic ballot at their polling station; otherwise, they are provided with a nonpartisan ballot that has statewide measures only.

And if they vote by mail, as a great many Californians do, these voters must request a Democratic ballot in writing.

“If you do nothing, you get a nonpartisan ballot,” Mr. DiCamillo said. “That is a proactive step that is a hurdle.”

County registrars are supposed to inform the independent voters that they have a right to a Democratic ballot, but each does so differently, leaving many voters with no idea they can participate in the primary.

“We do get people after an election saying, ‘I wanted to vote a partisan ballot, and I got this nonpartisan ballot,’ ” said Steve Weir, the vice president of the California Association of Clerks and Election Officials.

According to statistics provided by the California Secretary of State’s website, DTS voters make up 19% of registered voters. That’s a sizable block of people, and the fastest growing registered group in California, and I think efforts to reach out to them is a great idea. Any candidate would naturally covet that voting bloc, and anything that encourages voting and boosts turnout is a-ok in my book.

State Democratic Party officials said they did the best they could with a limited budget and competing interests. Separately from the party efforts, the Courage Campaign, a so-called 527 group, plans to call or e-mail 300,000 registered decline-to-state voters in California to remind them that they can vote Democratic.

For more information on the subject, check out the Courage Campaign website. They have more than you ever thought you needed to know about DTS voting on their handy dandy and very comprehensive FAQ page.

Super Tuesday in San Diego

OK, I’m up and ready to rock. Not entirely sure what sort of trouble I’m gonna kick up today, but at least some of it should be interesting.  I’ll be cruising parts of North County with CA-50 candidate Nick Leibham and I’ll be watching at least some of the results at Drinking Liberally San Diego.  There’s another results party hosted by the San Diego Dems in Hillcrest and the Young Dems will be following along in PB at The Shore Club.  So if I can stick to tonic for a while, I might just hop a bit.

In the meantime, snapshots (literal and rhetorical) from polling places around town, any interesting media reports, probably at least one stop at Hillcrest Mardi Gras which has its own results tent (“Cast your vote before you come to the party, then watch the Primary Voting Results in the Mardi Gras Election Tent.”> and…hell I don’t know what else.  Feel free to make suggestions.  But while you’re at it, check in with your own experiences. We’ll try to keep things updated regularly all day and night.

Update 6:58am: Governor Schwarzenegger and McCain will be at a San Diego rally at 1pm. Hangar at Jim’s Air Aviation 2904 Pacific Highway.  Governor at 1pm, McCain newsconference at 1:50pm. Obama‘s campaign will watch results starting at 8pm at East Village Tavern and Bowl (which I love).  Romney folks will be at the Westgate Hotel starting at 8pm in tandem with the official SDGOP party.  And finally, Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner will be at SDGOP headquarters today and “available” as president of the No on 93 Campaign. (h/t Capitol Morning Report).

Update 7:33am: Arrived at the polling place around 7:10.  Light turnout, about 5 people ahead of me in line, same number arrived while I was voting.  Precinct head said that something like half the precinct had already voted by mail. I assume that was exaggerated, but given the turnout, who knows.  If there’s more (relatively) early voting, that would likely benefit Clinton.  Or my experience could be entirely anecdotal.  Or I might have been lied to.  And check out the bad picture of Ron Paul signs across the street from the polling place.  Pretty slick. yeah.

Update 8:58am: I’m cribbing some wifi from the UTC Apple Store.  Touring North County polling places with Leibham is at least temporarily on hold as they’ve discovered the realities involved in trying to meet and greet in a congressional district with a ton of permanent absentees and over 1000 polling places- the people aren’t exactly congregating.  Other stuff may come up still, and if nothing else I’ll swing by the McCain event and the parties later.

Update 10:39am: MSNBC just reported that hundreds of people are trying to vote in Virginia only to discover that, surprise, the Virginia primary is next week.  Can I renounce my home state now?

(CA 80th AD) Harvard to Honor Alum Manuel Pérez

Manuel Perez has been recently announced as a recipient of the 2008 HGSE Alumni of Color Achievement Award….  Mr. Pérez is being recognized for his work, which addresses issues of race and education in ways that offer new frames of thought and practice, and evidences a commitment to promote meaningful strategies to affect change and to improve educational opportunities for people of color.

Manuel Pérez is running to represent the 80th Assembly District in California, a region that stretches from Palm Springs through Coachella to Calexico.   This seat is in play, and though Manuel has excellent company in the Democratic primary, he stands apart.  Manuel Perez represents the new crop of progressives in the Democratic party: a community organizer first/politician second, a scholarship student who came back to the old neighborhood to teach, the proud son of UFW parents who advocates for gay rights and a women’s right to choose.   Harvard Graduate School of Education has reason to be proud.  The volunteers on his campaign know how they feel.

HGSE Awards Perez

Support Manuel Pérez for the CA 80th AD here.

Manuel Perez with supporters

CDP Responds To Los Angeles Ballot Problem

(Some quick action – promoted by shayera)

Earlier today, dday posted a diary about the confusing ballot that will be handed out to Independent (Decline to State) voters who request a Democratic ballot in Los Angeles County.  As dday pointed out, those DTS voters will have to mark their ballot twice in order for it to be valid — they’ll have to fill in the bubble next to their candidate AND fill in the bubble on the line marked “Democratic.”

A few hours ago, the California Democratic Party sent out the following email to Decline to State voters in Los Angeles County in an attempt to alert them to this problem:

Photobucket

Now, the San Jose Mercury News has quoted the LA Registrar of voters as follows:

“It would almost be counterintuitive for someone to miss,” said Dean Logan, the acting county registrar. “We have put this information in voter education materials, and we’ve provided real clear instructions.”

Huh… Looks like yet another case of “Blame the voter.”

In the meantime, you can either call the Secretary of State’s office at 1-800-345-VOTE(8683) or the California Democratic Party headquarters at 1-916-442-5707 with questions or problems.

Penny

Online Organizing Director

California Democratic Party

The Calitics Show: Featuring LA City Councilman Eric Garcetti

Well, that was fun! We had LA Council President Eric Garcetti, a live report from Bob Brigham at the Grateful Dead for Obama show in San Francisco, and an interesting conversation between David Dayen and myself about the election tomorrow, in that order.  So, take a listen, I think, IMHO anyway, that it was pretty interesting.  I think we’ll try to do this more often. Let me know if you have a topic you’d like to consider for our next show.

LIVE: Deadheads for Barack Obama – San Francisco Reunion Concert

Barack Obama’s endorsement by the Grateful Dead showed the extent to which he is bringing voters out of the woodwork. Typically in campaigns, you start with 1/3 supporting your side, 1/3 supporting the other side, and 1/3 ready to be convinced. The middle is the battleground (unless you buy into the DLC playbook of pissing off the base to try and win over the other side’s base, which is why no Clinton has won 50% nationwide). The other option is to not buy into the voter pool as a zero net sum game and bring in new people. To date, Barack Obama has excelled at expanding the pool and bringing in young voters and first time voters and boosting turnout.

When it comes to the Grateful Dead, it is almost a joke when it comes to getting Deadheads to care about politics. It might be the least friendly demographic for increasing participation in electoral politics. The Dead didn’t step up against Nixon or any other major threat to America since. But they have been inspired by Barack Obama to come together for a reunion concert to Get Out The Vote. I’m proud to be there and will be updating below the fold, you can listen to a Live stream here (beginning at 7:30 pacific + Dead time).

Deadheads for Barack Obama

Talk about contrast. Hillary’s event was a huge pain to get media credentials. Top down, the was seating for less than 100 stanch supporters as part of a simulcast in dozens of cities with her endorsers. Meanwhile, Obama’s grassroots campaign inspired the Dead to get back together and they sold out the Warfield for Obama in less than twenty minutes.

It is now 45 minutes past the start and hundreds are still waiting in line while the bar is stacked five deep.  

Pics from the venue will be found here.

Clinton events highlighted by the Big City Mayors

The Clinton campaign will host “Voices Across America” town hall rally for US Sen. Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign. 4 p.m., Ferry Building. In LA, it's led by Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, 4:30 p.m., Pico House.

UPDATE: Bob got some photos, as you can see some here. It looks like they got plenty of media coverage. Pres. Bill Clinton is scheduled to appear on that big screen about now. Townhall now on HillaryClinton.com.

Over the flip, you'll catch the photo he picked up on the way to the event and a few more pics of the event.