New Registration Numbers Released – Inside the Numbers

The Secretary of State has come out with her revised registration numbers, broken down by county, Congressional district, Senate district and Assembly district.  I’m sure our resident numerologists will break down the numbers more closely, but here are some quick thoughts:

• There are 16,123,787 registered voters in the state, about 70% of those eligible.  Democrats have a 1.8 million-vote advantage, and by percentages that translates into 43.75%-32.53%, with 19.4% decline to state.  Those are significant increases in Democrats and more significant losses in Republicans from 2004.

• The room to run for Democrats is in Riverside and San Bernardino Counties.  They have among the lowest registration rates in the state (only Tulare and Yuba counties have lower percentages than Riverside), and they are among the fastest-growing populations.  We’re actually within 5,000 votes of having a plurality of Democrats in San Bernardino County.

• CA-03 is now less than 4% difference between Republicans and Democrats.  Republicans have a mere 15,000-vote lead.  This is a huge opportunity.  Republicans still hold an 8,000-vote advantage in CA-11, but that’s dropping.  We’re within 19,000 votes in CA-45 and with a big voter registration drive I think that’s reachable.  

• SD-12 is Democratic by a 47%-35% count, and SD-15 is Democratic by a 40.5%-36% number.  SD-19, the district Hannah-Beth Jackson is trying to flip, is within 10,000 votes.

• AD-80 looks to be in real good shape (46.5%-35.6%), though the participation there could be better.  AD-78 is a 10-point advantage for Democrats, and AD-15 is now plurality Democratic by 3,000 votes.  AD-10 is within less than 5,000 votes.

Fantastic Voter Registration Stats

I expect that we would see a surge in Democratic registration due to the presidential primary, but did not think it would be quite this good.  We now have reversed the trend of dropping our share due to the rise of the DTS stats and have a greater share of the electorate registered as Democrats now, compared to four years ago.  It is small, but compared to the dwindling Republican numbers it is impressive.

Keep in mind that voters did not have to register as Democrats to participate in the Democratic primary.

The overall voter registration numbers have grown to 16.1 million, a growth of a million voters since the 2004 primary.  The growth actually increased the percentage of eligible voters who are registered to vote from 68.96% in 2004 to 70% now.

This really would be better in a formal table, but I just grabbed it from Secretary Bowen’s press release. Fixed by Brian.








































































Political Party      # Registered % of Total   # Registered  % of Total
American Independent  331,619 2.06 % 291,055    1.93 %
Democratic 7,053,860   43.75 %        6,518,631      43.20 %
Green      120,725         0.75 % 157,749   1.05 %
Libertarian     79,711      0.49 %  86,053    0.57 %
Peace and Freedom    56,364        0.35 %   70,475 0.47 %
Republican 5,244,394    32.53 %      5,364,832 35.55 %
Decline to State  3,128,684    19.40 %      2,480,039 16.43 %
Miscellaneous 108,430    0.67 %      122,326   0.81 %
TOTAL  16,123,787     100 %  15,091,160       100 %

Californians Priced Out of Grocery Stores as Bush Stimulus Package Fizzles

Wasn't the economic stimulus package supposed to prevent things like this from happening?

I read in Monday's Press-Telegram that food pantries across California are beginning to see more and more brand new clients:

Like nearly a third of the first 50 customers to arrive at the Emergency Food Bank of Stockton, Hoffman was new to the pantry…

"I'm down on my luck," Hoffman said, squeezing and sniffing the bread. "And food is going through the roof. I need help."

And this is not an isolated occurrence. Edit by Brian: More over the flip.

A survey conducted of 180 food banks in late April and early May found that 99 percent have seen an increase in the number of clients served within the last year. The increase is estimated at 15 percent to 20 percent, though many food banks reported increases as high as 40 percent.

Yet while demand has gone up, food pantries are facing difficulties due to the necessity to transport the food from one site to another, sometimes up to 150 miles. Like so many other problems with the country, food banks are citing soaring gas prices as one of the main reasons why they are having so many problems.

"The way it's going, we're going to have a food disaster pretty soon," said Phyllis Legg, interim executive director of the Merced Food Bank, which serves 43 food pantries throughout foreclosure-ravaged Merced County.

"If gas keeps going up, it's going to be catastrophic in every possible way," said Ross Fraser, a spokesman for America's Second Harvest.

The cost of a bag of flour is up 69 cents from 2007. A dozen large eggs are 55 cents more expensive. A loaf of white bread rose 16 cents. All in the wake up a stimulus package that was supposed to make life easier.

We have already reached the point where anything is possible with President Bush. He could announce tomorrow that the key to ending global warming is to place the sun on the axis of evil list and I wouldn't be surprised. But with that said I still find it hard to believe that President Bush's plan in pushing through his Economic Stimulus Package earlier this year was to price people out of buying their food at grocery stores and super markets.

So with more and more people turning to food pantries, or as demonstrated by this articlefrom the Green Bay, changing the type of meat as the main course for their dinner, it is clear that the Bush Administration can add the "stimulus" package to the long list of its failed economic policies.

In one of the first of what will be many polls giving the big thumbs down to Bush’s 2008 “stimulus package”, Rasmussen reports that 56% of voters nationwide say it had no impact on the economy. Furthermore only 24% of people thought that the stimulus package helped the economy.

The report shows that the public’s mind is just about as clouded as Bush’s when it comes to how to respond to the continuing economic crisis.

Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 57% believe that if Congress and the President do nothing more, the economy will be in even worse shape a year from now.

However, if another stimulus package is passed, just 17% believe the economy will get better and 21% say it will get worse. Most voters say that if another stimulus package is passed, the economy will be about the same a year from today.

Its clear that the "stimulus package" didn't stimulate much economic activity and that further action by the federal government is necessary to prevent this recession from spiraling into something much worse.

Generally I agree with the opinions of the American public expressed in the Rasmussen survey. The "stimulus package" obviously did jack and another stimulus in the same vein as the first would just be more wheel spinning.

But the rub comes in the part of the results that show most Americans still have their heads up their rear ends when it comes to figuring out what to do next.

54% of people polled said that reducing regulation and taxes is the best thing the government can do to help the economy.

Clearly three decades of relentless GOP propaganda still has people mouthing empty Newt Gingrich era platitudes.

This model of achieving a balanced budget is exactly what is crippling the states today. It's not as though this is some sort of new and improved way of tackling the problem from a different angle. Many states have tried this practice as recently as last year to no avail. If this method sounds familiar, it's because this is exactly what Governor Ahnold attempted to do last year. This piece “California Budget 101: What went wrong, when” outlines why this approach goes no where:

When Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger signed the state budget last summer, he all but declared "mission accomplished" in his administration's biggest battle. The spending plan not only eliminated the state's perpetual deficit, he said, it also boasted a record $4 billion reserve.

Suddenly though, the Governor found himself in a predicament where the reserve fund was drained and the state was still facing a projected $17 billion shortfall. What went wrong?

Employment growth flattened. Corporate profits sagged. The crash in the housing market slowed consumer spending. Tax revenues that last summer had been expected to total more than $102 billion now figure to come in under $98 billion for the year.

Spending is up, too, though. The forecast for the current year was about $102 billion. The latest figures now put the cost of the state's commitments at more than $104 billion.

But the economic issues only worsened a basic, structural problem in the state budget: Spending is programmed by law to grow each year at a rate that is generally faster than tax revenues can match. Current state law would push general fund spending to $113 billion next year if nothing is done to slow it, according to the Schwarzenegger administration. Revenues, meanwhile, are projected to decline further, to about $95 billion. The budget Schwarzenegger celebrated last summer would have bridged the gap for one year at best.

The government rightfully decided that increasing the money spent per pupil in K-12 education and the money spend on health care for the poor, physically or mentally disabled, and the elderly was a good idea. Yet we are supposed to believe that the plan of reducing regulations and slashing taxes that is being pushed by such enlightened organizations as the Hoover Institution (Conservative Think Tank) and the Club for Growth (100% endorsement of Republican candidates in 2008) is what the economy and the American people need? Because these policies have been so beneficial since they were enacted almost across the board 5 years ago?

In reality, all that reduction of regulations and taxes will do is force dramatic cuts in education, healthcare, and other essential services, which is what we are now being forced to do.

Instead of proposing a long-term, viable solution to California's budget deficit, Gov. Schwarzenegger called for a ten percent across the board cut for all departments and the Legislature passed it. When pressed about this strategy, he stated that he did this to "rattle cages" to get the Legislature and all Californians to think about alternative solutions to the budget crisis. (Emphasis added)

However, his "solution" has caused a firestorm of anger with educators, labor unions, and health care advocates among others who have come out fighting. There's not a group out there who won't feel the stinging effects of these cuts beginning July 1, 2008.

At least the Governor is right about one thing. It’s time for a new brand of thinking, not a reversion back to the line of thought that helped guide us into the muck in the first place.

Oh, and in case any further evidence was needed:

Five years ago: President Bush signed a 10-year, $350 billion package of tax cuts, saying they already were "adding fuel to an economic recovery."

How’s that working for ya?

John Laird’s VLF for Parks Plan

John Laird has always believed that Arnold Schwarzenegger’s reckless cut of $6 billion from the state budget by cutting the VLF was a bad idea. And representing the 27th Assembly district, with some of the most beautiful parkland in our state (really – ever been to Point Lobos?) he has long sought ways to improve parks funding and access.

Now Laird is proposing to address both concerns with a plan to raise vehicle registration fees by $10 to pay for parks – and to help offset the cost of eliminating day use fees.

The additional funds would be a huge boost to a parks system that has accumulated $1 billion in deferred maintenance and has struggled in recent years with ranger staffing and park security, Laird said.

“This will allow us to begin to return to the level of parks we used to know,” Laird said. “It’s in a process of dying over time. Unless we find a strong, stable source (of funding), we’re just going to fall farther behind in our maintenance and have trouble acquiring more land.”…

Because cars would be able to enter parks for free, the state would lose about $40 million in entry fees it collects every year. The net funding increase would actually be $242 million.

Also, the state parks system’s entire $150 million annual budget would be available to the state’s general fund in the first year of the registration fees. Every year after that, the state’s general fund will be allowed access to $50 million less from the state parks budget until the entire amount is designated for the parks.

At that point, state parks would have a $392 million annual budget, not including any variations in the total number of registered vehicles in California….

“We can negotiate things like that if people think it’s going to be an issue,” Laird said….

A recent poll of Californians showed 74 percent favor the registration increase, Laird said.

While I’m not sure I like the idea of leaving the parks budget available to the general fund – it’s time we stopped raiding other funds because the state isn’t willing to tackle the structural revenue shortfall – and though I’d prefer a full restoration of the pre-1998 VLF, the overall concept seems sound. California’s beaches and parks should be free for day visitors, and as they are part of the state’s natural heritage, everyone should pitch in to help keep them afloat.

Besides, at many parks, folks have already found workarounds to avoid paying the day use fee – including here in Monterey County, where folks can simply park along Highway 1 and walk into most parks and beaches rather than pay the fee. This provides a more sustainable parks budget, helps address the backlog, and all with new revenues. It’s a progressive solution.

Field Poll: California is Obama territory

Field,  5/16/08-5/27/08 (1/08):

Obama (D): 52 (47)

MccAin (R): 35 (40)

Clinton has opened up a similar 53-36 lead, up from 45-43 in the January field poll.  Yeah…about that “John McCain will carry California” garbage we’ve had to hear so much about?  Don’t buy it.

California Democrats are also coalescing around Obama as the Democratic nominee (no trend lines)

Obama (D): 51

Clinton (D) 38

Furthermore, it seems that in California, at least, we’re getting some reconciliation: only 22% of Clinton supporters say they’re not likely to vote Obama, while 17% of Obama voters say they’re not likely to support Clinton.

What’s also interesting–and a note I touched on in a DailyKos diary I wrote a couple of days ago–is that Californians give Obama’s campaign a much better grade than they do Clinton’s.  70% of Clinton supporters think Obama has run a good campaign, while only 42% of Obama supporters feel that way about Clinton’s, and 11% of Clinton supporters are  unhappy with Clinton’s campaign, compared with only 3% of Obama’s.

Now imagine if California had kept it’s primary in June…things would have been very interesting.

CA-04 A DIFFERENT KIND OF CAMPAIGN

(This is an issue that’s starting to reach critical mass, and Charlie Brown is at the forefront of it.  Between recent reports about record numbers of veteran suicides and foreclosures in military towns tripling the average rate, the care and treatment of our veterans is an absolute disgrace.  And it has fallen to leaders like Brown, BEFORE reaching Congress, to show the compassion and wisdom to get those who served this country what they need.  I can’t have more pride in how he’s run this campaign. – promoted by David Dayen)

As many of you know, back in 2006, first time candidate and Retired USAF Lt. Col. Charlie Brown came from obscurity to within less than 9,000 votes (or 3%) of victory in a district that had been electing Republicans by 30 point margins just two years before.

I worked on Charlie’s campaign in 2006, and I’m proud to be serving Charlie again in 2008. I didn’t come back because I enjoy the 16-hour days. I certainly didn’t come back because of the paychecks. I came back because there’s something different about a “typical day” on the Charlie Brown for Congress campaign—something that can’t be described in sound bytes or talking points…something so important, you want the world to experience it with you…

You want them to hear the desperate cries of the Iraq Veteran who contacts the campaign to say he is contemplating suicide.  Or the e-mail from the married father of two who already tried.  You want them to meet the Gold Star mother who calls for gas money, so she can afford to take one of the guys from her son’s unit to the VA for rehab.  Or the Vietnam Vet who has weeks to live because of Agent Orange exposure, and has had his VA benefits denied for years.  And the list goes on, and on and on…

Every day, these are just some of the people who are reaching out-from across the country—to the Charlie Brown for Congress Campaign.  

They’re not calling to volunteer, contribute, schedule a meeting or inquire about a policy position.  They aren’t even calling to express their support or opposition to Charlie’s candidacy.  

They called to ask for help.

It begs the question, why would anyone call a Congressional Challenger who has never held public office before for help?

You have to remember that Charlie Brown is no ordinary politician—in fact he has, in the span of less than two election cycles, transcended politics as most of us know it.

Charlie’s making history not by virtue of who he is (though one could argue that a Congressman who is a career military officer, husband of a veteran, and father to a son who has done 4 rotations in Iraq is far from typical these days), but what he is doing to address one of the many OLD problems on which politicians have over promised and under delivered for years-the plight of America’s war veterans.

I came back to fight for Charlie because I knew that this campaign took a different approach to solving problems—leadership by example. With Charlie’s “Promises Kept Veteran’s Charity Challenge,” we’re seeing community based organizations that fill in the gaps for veterans get the support they so badly need.  The 5% of campaign contributions that Charlie is giving these groups helps to keep the lights on at shelters, supply those places with blankets and food and office supplies, and help pay for qualified counselors to do outreach on the streets.

But the commitment of Charlie’s campaign goes beyond money.  It’s a frequently something even more valuable–a live voice on the other end of the line when crisis comes.    

And when those calls come, it’s not about winning and losing elections—it’s about saving lives.

The stories of veterans who call us very often break your heart—but they also remind us what a different kind of campaign can mean for people in need right now—long before voters go to the polls next November.  

It also inspires hope—because as we work with callers to help them find solutions, we can’t help but think what a little Charlie Brown in Washington could mean for hundreds of thousands of veterans who are waiting in line for benefits, or struggling to deal with invisible scars, or trying to rebuild lives that have been shattered by war.  

Or what it can mean on energy independence, healthcare, or so many other “old problems” where the results from Washington simply don’t match the rhetoric we’ve been hearing for years.

My entire life, I was brought up to believe that honesty, hard work and determination make up the character of a person. And if you give a little back and fight for those who can’t stand up for themselves, then you have done your share. I fight for Charlie because he embodies what I was raised to believe: that integrity and a sense of duty (not political ambition) win out at the end of the day.

I am flush with inspiration, and every time the phone rings, that much more flush with perspective.  But I know that true change cannot be accomplished in a vacuum—and that’s why I wanted to share what’s been happening here on the ground with the netroots—and I hope you will share it also.

The two leading Republicans in this race-Doug Ose and Tom McClintock—have spent $4 million dollars in 4 months.  Once you get through their endless stream of attack ads, their message comes down to “vote for me I’m more Republican than he is”— and if you are looking for someone to take action, listen, or offer your family a little hope or dignity before November—look somewhere else…  

…I say look no further than Charlie Brown.

Neil Pople

Director of Online Communications

AB 2716: Paid Sick Leave

In San Francisco, we passed Paid Sick Leave a few years back.  This week, the Assembly passed AB 2716 to provide similar benefits statewide.  Listen to a KQED program on the bill live here.

Some details of the plan from the SacBee:

Under AB 2716, businesses of 10 employees or more would be required to provide up to nine days of sick leave per year. Smaller firms would provide up to five days. … Full-time and part-time workers would earn one hour of sick leave for every 30 hours worked. The benefit could be used after 90 days of employment.

As Roger Niello, a Republican Assemblyman, notes on the radio show, over 60% of employers already provide paid sick leave. Of course, the Republicans feel that it shouldn’t be required by the government. You know the whole arguments, costs are too high, small business won’t succeed, yada yada.  

But as was shown in San Francisco, much of this is the Chamber of Commerce crying wolf. When sick workers come to work, they are not productive and get other employees sick.  You make a bad situation worse. The cost savings of providing paid sick leave in turnover, etc. The Drumm Major Institute has a nice statistics page on this. (h/t CPR)

This is a good idea, and the Governor should sign this bill when it gets there.

California Nurses Association: A Genuine Social Union

  As a direct care RN, and member of the California Nurses Association, I am proud of the fact that our union is both a professional association and a labor organization. SEIU International under Andy Stern has embarked on a disturbing path of corporate unionism — business partnerships with employers that undermine public protections and a voice for workers.

 Concurrently, SEIU International has taken steps to silence dissent within SEIU, and engaged in physical aggression and threats against the California Nurses Association/National Nurses Organizing Committee for criticizing SEIU’s direction.  In contrast, CNA/NNOC is committed to building a powerful national movement of direct care registered nurses that protects the ability of RNs to advocate for patients and work together to improve patient care conditions, standards for all RNs, and achieve genuine healthcare reform through a single-payer, Medicare for all system.

 The NATION has just posted a powerful article detailing the reasons why we believe The California Nurses Association/National Nurses Organizing Committee is the best union to represent the interests of Registered Nurses.

http://www.thenation.com/doc/2…

  According to our Executive Director, Rose Ann DeMoro, “We are a genuine social union. We believe the interests of our members and the public interest are identical. Nurses have a legal obligation to advocate for their patients; they have an intimate relationship to their patients; they function outside of the profit motive.”

 “SEIU’s Joe Hill-style talk of One Big Healthcare Union is appealing, she says–if that vision were in other hands. “If we had the luxury to create the perfect union, there’d be one big healthcare union intent on protecting and upscaling each job,” she says. “But the healthcare system is collapsing. Nurses have to fight to save their own occupation, which healthcare corporations would deskill in a minute. And Stern advocates a model of letting the employer define the work and organizing the workers as the employer defines them. That’s deadly for RNs, and deadly for patient care.”

  Under a backroom deal with Catholic Healthcare Partners in February, 2008, the employer, not the workers or union, filed for elections to impose SEIU as the union in eight Ohio hospitals without providing a single signed union card. SEIU agreed to not try to influence the election. Employees were specifically forbidden from talking about the union or the election. This model eliminates the role of workers in organizing a union, or building the power of the union in the workplace through collective action.