The LA Times just released a new poll of LA residents on a number of questions. Today, they released their results on marriage equality:
In the state’s continuing political battles over gay marriage, both sides are targeting Latino voters, and a new Los Angeles Times poll illustrates why. Overall, the poll showed, a substantial majority of voters in Los Angeles support the right of same-sex couples to legally marry, with 56% in favor and 37% opposed. (LAT 6/19/09)
In the Prop 8 voting, LA County was almost exactly split, so this is progress. Still, if Prop 8 taught us anything, it’s that you have to take polling numbers with a grain of salt. Apparently people like to tell pollsters they are voting for marriage equality, but when they get to actually filling out their ballots they change their minds.
On the crosstabs, we once again see that marriage equality will not be an issue in a few years. Voters 18-29 support marriage equality at a 66-29 clip, voters 50-64 supported at a 55-39 rate. The only group to oppose equality are seniors. Those over 65 are at 43-48.
Along ethnic lines, white voters supported at 68-27, Latinos split 45-46, and African-Americans opposed at 37-54.
All in all, this poll is relatively good news, but there is a lot of work left to be done.
important thing to not is that there was no likely voter screen. This was a poll of registered voters.
We know that older folks turn out with more regularity than younger voters and that changes the likely voter model.
That said, considering we lost LA, it is great to see that 56 number.
the whole blacks vs. gays fight the blogosphere had last November, but can those numbers for blacks in L.A. be solely explained away by religion? Because it seems to me that Latinos in Los Angeles strongly identify as Roman Catholic, and are as religious as blacks in L.A. And yet you have a statistical tie among them, versus an almost 20-point deficit among blacks on the gay marriage question. What gives?