While Gov. Brown negotiates, or well, attempts to negotiate, to get a few Republican votes to get the tax extensions on the ballot, a few folks are looking pretty concerned about whether those votes would ever be coming through.
As Gov. Jerry Brown continued to negotiate with Republican legislators on his plan to extend taxes, he also has begun to weigh going it alone, sources said Tuesday.
That could take two paths — forcing a special election onto the ballot through a majority vote in the Legislature, or going forward with an initiative campaign for November. The more likely route, sources said, would be with a November election rather than risking legal challenges to muscling it through on a majority vote.(CoCo Times)
Look, I’ve had my doubts since day one that any Republicans would really have the courage to buck the Grover Norquist gauntlet. And frankly, they are showing themselves to be mired in their own propaganda to see past the present political situation.
Perhaps the wise thing would have been to start collecting signatures back in February, as the negotiation was really going forward, so we weren’t forced to wait for the Republicans. And perhaps an initiative possibility would have brought some Republicans closer to the dotted line.
At any rate, if we go through the signature route, an election won’t happen until November, and we’ll be left with a dramatic and gaping hole in our budget until then.
UPDATE: CapitolAlert points out that Brown has $4 mil in the bank, plenty to qualify a measure or two for the ballot.
Good!
The Governor has suggested that IF he can’t get agreement from the few Republicans he needs for a 2/3 vote to put the tax extensions on a June special election ballot, he will sponsor a ballot initiative to gather signatures for a November special election. While I support our Governor in his efforts to extend existing taxes and provide a balanced solution to our massive budget shortfall, I do not believe that this is a preferable back-up plan.
A November special election on taxes would NOT be tax extensions, they would be tax increases. The taxes in question expire on June 30th. IF the election is held any time after that, the ballot summary and label will say tax increases, not extention of existing taxes. This will be more difficult to pass. And, while our Governor has received high approval ratings, we can’t count on his approval ratings staying high all year long. Governors rarely stay as popular as they are during their first six months in office. If his approval ratings dip in the fall, that will make it tougher to pass the tax measures. Not to mention the lost revenue for 5-6 months while we’re waiting for the special election.
While I’m not a lawyer, there appears to be enough legal wiggle room to put the tax extensions on a June special election ballot by a majority vote of our state legislature. I’m also quite concerned that if we wait until November, the Governor will feel tremendous pressure from big business interests all year long–interests he feels he needs to pass the tax measures–to appease them, which could mean the veto’ing a lot of very good bills in September/October.
Let’s do it in June and be done with it. It’s too risky to wait until November.
I still don’t see any real pressure being put on the Republicans. Where is the push to get everyone to call these Republicans electeds and tell them to put this on the ballot? or if you don’t think 1,000 calls will change their mind, where is the call to action with something that will change their minds. As has been said here ad nauseum, this isn’t about a governing philosophy, “waste, fraud and abuse” or any other nonsense. These people are crapping all over the budget process and the state. Why aren’t we crapping back?
because by november it will clear if the gaping budget hole and the services cut to fill it is really that bad for californians. Right now it really is just estimates on the impact. GOP is betting that cuts will not have that negative of an effect, democrats think it will be a catastrophe. By november, if it is asthe democrats predict then it would probably be a lot easier to not only get the extension but add new taxes. If its like the small govt crowd thinks then the nov ballot initiative wont pass. At tat pointit will be clear where california voters really stand – a big govt with a lot of services or a small govt with few services/minimal safety net.
By November, the tiny amount people see in tax savings will be insignificant to the perceived budget cuts. Schools will be closed, fire and police services will be cut. Road and freeway projects will be frozen. Inmates will be released from prison. The list goes on and on.
What many people fail to get is that Jerry Brown has been through this drill before. He is the master of the gesture. One example stands out in my mind. In the late seventies post-Prop 13 Brown cut way back on freeway spending. In the South San Jose area the interchange where Hwy 101, 280 and 680 come together was under construction. Brown halted the construction, partly to demonstrate his “Era of Limits” philosophy. Sections of uncompleted interchange jutted into the sky, disconnected from the freeways that they would many years later join. Thousands of angry daily commuters grumbled as they crawled through the concrete monument to austerity. The uncompleted interchange became an icon for the failure of the Californian can-do spirit it represented. The Republican Party slammed Democrats relentlessly for years about this. Thirty years later the Republicans are about to get the same treatment. There will be very visible cuts and they will be blamed on the Republicans. Count on it.
“Perhaps the wise thing would have been to start collecting signatures back in February, as the negotiation was really going forward, so we weren’t forced to wait for the Republicans. And perhaps an initiative possibility would have brought some Republicans closer to the dotted line.”
Since I suggested exactly this–back in February–and even offered to lead the petition drive, I appreciate your support. It would have been a good idea. It still is. Thinking that Republicans would ever agree to this was somewhere between optimistic and naive. For somebody who’s supposed to be such the masterful politician Brown is supposed to be, I’m afraid it was just plain naive.
I’m still willing to lead the petition drive. I just need the petitions. Sooner, rather than later, would be nice.
Looking at the new PPIC polling results, I cannot believe that putting a tax extention on the ballot is a good idea right now. 46% now support the plan and following a rough campaign, it will be much lower than that.
Most initiative consultants will tell you that you want to begin at 70-75% support before the campaign begins. If we take it to the voters and lose, then it will be a long, long time before politicians will have the guts to raise taxes.
I think a better approach is to take on the pension issue. We cannot put our heads in the sand and say there is no problem. There is a problem and there are two approaches to solving the problem: either put together some bright people to save the best of the pension system and reform the worst abuses; wait for an initiative that will rip the guts out of the entire pension system.
We should put together an intelligent pension reform package with a tax package and go to the voters. I think it’s the only way. But, I’m open to suggestions.
I have a question that maybe someone can answer. If the Republicans won’t budge re putting the tax extension question on the ballot and if the initiative process is necessary, why not go for the whole enchilada, i.e., put to the voters the idea to significantly raise taxes on the wealthy and maybe corporations as well instead of simply keeping the current structure intact for a couple of years? I know there would probably be a two thirds requirement, but so what? It would certainly put the issue out there and who knows maybe get the attention of the public and maybe the republican party as well. They certainly wouldn’t want a public uprising that might go against them and their wealthy benefactors. I haven’t really thought it through. Maybe someone here has?