All posts by Lucas O'Connor

AP: Obama Clinches Nomination

The AP is reporting that Barack Obama has “effectively clinched the Democratic presidential nomination.” Their calculus is based on publicly and privately committed delegates and a minimum number of delegates won today in Montana and South Dakota.

Assuming AP is right, I’m licking my chops for moving on to McCain.

[UPDATE] by Julia There are a few California superdelegates who have not announced.  However, scratch Jerry McNerney off of that list. (Correction by Lucas: McNerney will endorse tonight, hasn’t said who)

[UPDATE] by Lucas John Perez endorses Obama.

[UPDATE] by Lucas Kamil Hasan switches from Clinton to Obama.

[UPDATE] by Lucas Maxine Waters has also switched from Clinton to Obama. She said: “It is now time to close ranks and time for all remaining delegates to put their support behind the presumptive nominee, Senator Obama. Senator Obama has run an effective campaign and has overcome many obstacles to create an energy that has brought many new Democrats into the party.”

[UPDATE] by Julia Sam Farr goes for Obama, or so his spokesman says he will tonight. (Update by Lucas: now official.)

[UPDATE] by Lucas DCW adds the following for Obama: Christine Pelosi, Rachel Binah (switch from Clinton), Bob Filner, Jerry McNerney.

And here is that the list of those who have not declared yet.  Torres by the CDP rules cannot endorse.

Steve Ybarra, Art Torres, Robert Ranking, John Perez, Christine Pelosi, Bob Mulholland, Carole Midgen, Susan Davis, Bob Filner, Sam Farr, Michael Honda, Gerald McNerney, and Nancy Pelosi.

And let me just add that this AP story is the AP trying to get headlines.  One could speak to any number of supers over the past week and get them to say that they would eventually come out for Obama.  Until that magic number hits 0 I wait to say we have a nominee.

UPDATE: (Bob) Indeed. We’ll have a nominee when the last Election Day Registration voter says so in Montana tonight.

Some Things I’m Voting For

Brian did one for San Francisco, so now it’s my turn. I’ll defer to the Calitics endorsements for contested state and federal races and focus on a few collected locals. I’m skipping the unopposed races, I’ve done varying amounts of research on these ranging from “exhaustive” to “I trust this one guy’s opinion” and as usual, I speak only for myself, not Calitics or the Editorial Board.

Superior Court 19: Garry Haehnle

Superior Court 45: Evan Patrick Kirvin

San Diego Prop A: Yes

San Diego Prop B: Yes

San Diego Prop C: No (The Mayor should not appoint his/her own auditor)

San Diego Mayor: Floyd Morrow. While this is almost certainly a Sanders/Francis race, this is more than a protest vote. It’s important to force this race into a runoff, otherwise most (maybe all) leverage is lost with the Mayor’s office from here until the end of the upcoming term. Squeezing at least a few more months out of it would be great.

San Diego City Attorney: Mike Aguirre. I have serious reservations about all of these candidates and Aguirre is certainly no exception. His personal squabbling with the Mayor has often been counter-productive and reckless and I don’t overlook that lightly. But flawed as he may be, I haven’t seen any other candidate distinguish themselves as interested in being quite the rabid counterweight to a “strong mayor” that’s already proven itself a failed model. That role doesn’t have to be filled by the City Attorney, but I’m not yet convinced it’ll be handled anywhere else.

There are also a number of people who I would like to vote for if I were in other parts of San Diego, but this is who I’m voting for.

Anyone inside San Diego or with a fleeting interest in San Diego issues, feel free to share your own voting plans or simply beat me into submission for the insanity of my picks.

Primary Watching

Tomorrow’s the big day (depending on your perspective I suppose), with local, legislative and proposition votes going on all over the state and the Montana and South Dakota primaries wrapping up the Presidential calendar.  There’s speculation that Sen. Clinton will suspend her campaign tomorrow night, plus an easy dozen congressional primaries to watch, the Leno/Migden/Nation battle royale, I’m masochistically fascinated by the San Diego mayoral race- the list goes on.

It looks like I’ll be holing up for a bit at the Obama watch party at the W Hotel here in San Diego. I’ve also heard that local Young Dems will be at The Shore Club and City Council candidate Todd Gloria will be gathering with supporters at The Local. So that’s a random and incomplete collection of spots around San Diego…What city/bar/restaurant/corner of your house will you be reporting from as we all obsess tomorrow evening?

It’s Now.

This afternoon, Chris Bowers has an excellent piece: Once In A Generation Is Now.  It argues that this election is the opportunity to go all in and make dramatic changes throughout this country.  This is our chance to change the tone of discourse.  This is our chance to break the GOP machine.  And most importantly, this is our chance to get a strong progressive majority to DC that can pass legislation that’s been waiting for 30 or more years.  Now.

So I can’t help but look around California for signs that all the chips are being pushed to the center.  Dave noted earlier that there could, on the outer edge, as many as nine California seats in play this year, and certainly recent Democratic successes in Illinois, Louisiana and Mississippi suggest that the ability to win anywhere is now a reality.

While every district is unique, projections are rough at best, and anything can happen between now and November, the odds are slim of there being a better time to go for broke in the forseeable future.  So I look around California and I see that between the 34 Democratic incumbents in California’s congressional delegation, there’s more than $14.6 million cash on hand.  Out of those 34, only one (Jerry McNerney) is facing a serious challenge, freeing up a great deal of time and money to invest in races around the state.

In CA-04, Republican contenders Tom McClintock and Doug Ose are spending millions to destroy each other while Charlie Brown keeps gunning for nearly-departed Rep. Doolittle’s seat.  David Dreier’s 26th district is ripe for the picking, but his $1.8+ million in the bank is a challenge. In the 46th, Crazy Dana Rohrabacher finally has a serious challenger in a dangerous year to be Republican, but it takes money to drive home just how destructive his craziness is. In eastern San Diego, Duncan Hunter is vacating an otherwise strong Republican seat, but an open seat in a year that the Republican brand is collapsing provides an opportunity to prevent 30 more years of the same in the form of Dunc Jr.

These are just a few examples- not offered up necessarily as the best or the most deserving.  Our representatives have a singular opportunity this year to translate the success of a 50-state-strategy mentality into major systemic changes in California if they (and we) are willing to focus more resources inside the state.  By no means am I suggesting that I want to see our Representatives contribute themselves broke (rainy days will come).  Nor am I suggesting that they all necessarily need to be writing huge checks (they don’t all have the ability). And I’m not accusing anyone of being stingy (some generous and prolific fundraisers represent California). But the conventional wisdom that districts in California can’t flip belongs in the scrap heap. Jim Webb couldn’t win and now he’s a Senator. Nancy Boyda, Carol Shea-Porter, Jerry McNerney couldn’t win. Now they’re enjoying their new DC offices. And as Dave’s post reinforced earlier, districts in California can change.

California isn’t immune to the fundamental shift happening throughout the country. Heck, marriage equality is now supported by a majority of Californians.  I’ve watched with great pride over past election cycles as California’s representatives have time and again stepped up to help the national party in all its forms stay competitive. But once in a generation is NOW. We can change the country, but we needn’t leave the state behind.  With the June 3 primary now less than a week away, it’s a good time to remember that anyone can max out contributions once for the primary and again for the general election. Doubling the impact you have come November.  I don’t really care who it is (I have my favorites, but that’s for me), as long as we remember that California is full of races we can win.

But beyond this week, this is an issue that carries all the way through to November.  DCCC head Chris Van Hollen sees 50 Republican seats in play already, a number that may very well be an understatement.  Plenty more can enter the field with some work, but only if we seize on this unique opportunity and press the advantage everywhere. It isn’t going to be all about money, but it’s definitely partly about money and $14.6 million is a whole lot of money. This can be a year that changes California if we commit to the funding as well as the time and energy, so I hope going forward that our Congressional leaders will help set the tone for all Californians by supporting the many viable challengers throughout the state.

Blackwater Files Federal Lawsuit

Earlier today, Blackwater ratcheted up the San Diego battle, suing the City of San Diego on federal charges. Blackwater claims that the revocation of its occupancy permit (so that the public has a chance to comment and review) violates not only state and federal rights, but Blackwater’s Constitutional protections under the Commerce Clause.  You can read the entire complaint in pdf form here, but I can assure you that the irony of a company who operates outside of all law- Constitutional and otherwise- trying to claim those same rights runs right through the whole thing.

I work for the Courage Campaign

The argument rests on a number of misrepresentations, including the assertion that Otay Mesa is a “remote” and maintaining that fulfilling a military training contract somehow corresponds to a closed-to-the-public “vocational school.”  But the crux of it all is that Blackwater thinks it’s unconstitutional for there to be a public review of its permit. Which of course inaccurately attempts to convince us all that Blackwater is just another business. That’s the Blackwater pitch through all of this, and (hopefully) it’s never going to fly. Blackwater likes being a special case when it’s insulated from murder prosecution, but not when it screws up their permits. Speaking with KPBS, City Attorney Mike Aguirre said “It’s not really something that in my judgment is a appropriately before a federal court. [sic]”

Brian Bonfiglio for his part as Blackwater West’s shill accused the city of trying to suck up to activists (when was the last time that happened ANYwhere?) in defense of the lawsuit.  This is a whole new level, we’ll see what comes next.

Rohrabacher Stays True to Himself: Crazy, Condescending and Sexist

SwingStateProject beat me to the punch on yet another example of Dana Rohrabacher being awful.  Discussing his reelection bid with a Long Beach newspaper, he said of challenger Debbie Cook:

“She’s a very attractive person, physically, and has a title, so I’m taking it seriously.”

Translation: “Isn’t it cute that a woman would try to challenge me.”

Even in a district so oddly willing to being represented by an utter nutjob, it’s hard to believe that such naked sexism directed at a popular mayor will fly. Throw in his commentary about “steely-eyed radicals” pushing some hidden agenda beneath the notion of man-made climate change, and it’s the whole Crazy Dana package.

It’s tough to really guess what the tipping point of mean-spirited insanity might be for Rohrabacher, but now that he’s getting pushed, perhaps the process will at least speed up a bit.

No Occupancy for Blackwater

I work for the Courage Campaign

The City of San Diego has decided against issuing a certificate of occupancy to Blackwater (pdf):

Dear Mr. Bonfiglio,

The City will not issue a certificate of occupancy for the above referenced project pursuant to Section 129.0114 of the San Diego Municipal Code (SDMC). The portions of the building identified for use as a shooting range and vocational/trade school shall not be occupied until a certificate of occupancy has been issued for this change of use or occupancy pursuant to SDMC Section 129.0113.

Which basically means that Blackwater can’t open up shop until going through a full public review process as ordered by the Mayor (replacing the previously planned stop-work order).  In the meantime though, San Diego’s development services director Kelly Broughton continues to play dumb, telling KPBS “I don’t see that I would have had any other choice but to approve it because it complied with our municipal code and the California Building Code.” Of course, it doesn’t comply at all, which is why Rep. Bob Filner, several members of the City Council, the City Attorney and Mayor have all now stepped in to correct the flawed process.

For his part, Blackwater spokesman Mike Neil is grasping almost laughably at straws in response:

Neil said Blackwater’s own analysis shows that the company is entitled to occupy the Otay Mesa facility and a delay could jeopardize Blackwater’s long-standing contract with the Navy to train sailors in anti-terrorism tactics. A delay could damage the company’s business reputation and “cause harm to national security.”

I’m really not impressed that Blackwater has decided that Blackwater is right. And if Blackwater is so concerned about hanging onto this contract, they might have wanted to engage in this process honestly. But at least they continue to blow off even the pretense that this would be a vocational school.  Not even lip service to the notion.  Finally, for all the lame bluster about the threat to national security if Blackwater loses this contract, let’s not lose sight of the fact that, even if this were true (obviously it’s not true and is in fact absurd), it’s not a good thing.  Blackwater’s contention is that San Diego should break its local government because the military can’t handle its own training.

Well that’s exactly what Donald Rumsfeld had in mind back in 2001 when he decided it was time to save the Pentagon from itself by privatizing everything in sight.  As I remember it, the ensuing years have demonstrated that Donald Rumsfeld is not right about very much, and this is one example. So even if Blackwater were right that its vital to military readiness- that would just be all the more reason to put the training back in the hands of the military. Blackwater has been nothing but trouble, and cementing any “necessity” for them would be wrong on so many levels. Good for their bottom line- which is what they care about- but not good for San Diego, the U.S. military, the country overall or the world at large.  Less Blackwater is the goal.

Brian Bilbray is Ashamed of Himself

Finally, Brian Bilbray and I agree on something.  I’ve been saying it for years, but apparently he’s only now coming around: he should be ashamed of his record, and now that he’s up for re-election, suddenly he is.

During his chat with the U-T’s Logan Jenkins, he falls all over himself trying to demonstrate that he’s not a partisan hack who’s married to Bush’s failed policies (except when he’s to the RIGHT of Bush).  He talks about working with Democrat Heath Shuler on immigration reform, thinking that it moderates his well-documented immigration insanity and fealty to his corporate sponsors. He recalls clean beach legislation that he cosponsored…in 2000. Without mentioning that he’s desperate to abandon all environmental standards to help build an ineffectual border wall.

But here’s where the beauty of the current political landscape kicks in.  After claiming that the string of Dem wins in special elections have nothing to do with the 50th (apparently everything he doesn’t like is a fluke- he’s got the spin down), he dramatically tries to break from the Republican brand:

“I don’t work for anyone but the 50th,” he told me. “I didn’t swear to uphold some Republican agenda.”

This from the guy who votes with the Republican Party 91.8% of the time and has seen his (reasonable-for-a-Republican) lifetime Progressive Punch score of 12.93% drop more dramatically than anyone else in Congress- this term his rating is at 5.25%.  Now these aren’t the only metrics out there, but it’s hardly the profile of a legitimate across-the-aisle legislator.  This is a man who was elected in 2006 on his perceived moderate credentials only to arrive in DC and enable Bush policies and the broader pro-corporatist politics of fear and repression. He knows that won’t fly in a district full of politically reasonable people, so he’s trying to keep up the smoke and mirrors as long as possible. Trouble is, while he’s astute enough to realize he should be ashamed of his record, that doesn’t change reality.

Bilbray’s made his GOP-enabling bed. Now he has to live with the consequences.

UPDATE: Sanders Stops Blackwater – City Attorney Drops the Blackwater Smackdown

Full disclosure: I work for the Courage Campaign

[Update] The Union-Tribune reports today that Mayor Sanders has ordered all work to stop on the Blackwater site. Brian Bonfiglio (somewhat ironically) is complaining about the politicizing of the issue in an election year, even though nobody EVER wants Blackwater and he knows cause this isn’t his first time around this block.

Yesterday the Union Tribune reported that according to Kelly Broughton, San Diego’s development services director, Blackwater’s city permits could not be appealed.  The article held out one glimmer of hope though- that Mayor Sanders’ call for investigation could bear fruit:

Broughton said yesterday that the internal review could lead to Blackwater’s permits being revoked, after a public hearing, if it turns out that staff made mistakes or relied on bad information.

Certainly one compelling bit of “bad information” might be the use of Southwest Law Enforcement and Raven Development Group on the permits instead of Blackwater.  Another might be…you know…blatantly lying about the planned use of the property in Otay Mesa and what would be installed there.  Well today City Attorney Mike Aguirre weighed in on exactly that, calling for a stop work order to be immediately issued and establishing the need for environmental impact study:

The City Attorney issued a legal opinion on Friday indicating that a series of building permits issued by the City of San Diego’s Development Services Department to a subsidiary of Blackwater Worldwide, a global security firm whose work in Iraq has fallen under criticism, were obtained improperly and a more rigorous permitting process should be completed. The City Attorney opined that a stop work order should be issued immediately and a more rigorous application process undertaken.

Southwest Law Enforcement Training Enterprises, a subsidiary of Blackwater Worldwide, obtained permits for tenant improvements to an existing warehouse in Otay Mesa the area of the City of San Diego. The permit applications specified that the building was to be used as a “training facility.” The original building was formerly used as a warehouse. One of the three applications filed by Southwest Law Enforcement stated that the proposed use of the building as “same (no change).”

As a result of the representations in the permit application the permits were issued under the DSD’s “ministerial” process, which meant no City Council or other discretionary approval was required.

More recent tenant improvement application submitted by Southwest Law Enforcement Training Enterprises was to construct an “indoor firing range.”

The legal opinion issued by the City Attorney’s Office also states that California Environmental Quality Act is also necessary in order to address the environmental impacts of a firing range

Which is a long way around to smacking down Blackwater on about every point that’s been raised by the locals objecting to the project.  Local NPR on the way home earlier reported that Mayor Sanders was on board with some or all of the City Attorney’s opinion, still waiting to get an official response from Sanders.