This afternoon, Chris Bowers has an excellent piece: Once In A Generation Is Now. It argues that this election is the opportunity to go all in and make dramatic changes throughout this country. This is our chance to change the tone of discourse. This is our chance to break the GOP machine. And most importantly, this is our chance to get a strong progressive majority to DC that can pass legislation that’s been waiting for 30 or more years. Now.
So I can’t help but look around California for signs that all the chips are being pushed to the center. Dave noted earlier that there could, on the outer edge, as many as nine California seats in play this year, and certainly recent Democratic successes in Illinois, Louisiana and Mississippi suggest that the ability to win anywhere is now a reality.
While every district is unique, projections are rough at best, and anything can happen between now and November, the odds are slim of there being a better time to go for broke in the forseeable future. So I look around California and I see that between the 34 Democratic incumbents in California’s congressional delegation, there’s more than $14.6 million cash on hand. Out of those 34, only one (Jerry McNerney) is facing a serious challenge, freeing up a great deal of time and money to invest in races around the state.
In CA-04, Republican contenders Tom McClintock and Doug Ose are spending millions to destroy each other while Charlie Brown keeps gunning for nearly-departed Rep. Doolittle’s seat. David Dreier’s 26th district is ripe for the picking, but his $1.8+ million in the bank is a challenge. In the 46th, Crazy Dana Rohrabacher finally has a serious challenger in a dangerous year to be Republican, but it takes money to drive home just how destructive his craziness is. In eastern San Diego, Duncan Hunter is vacating an otherwise strong Republican seat, but an open seat in a year that the Republican brand is collapsing provides an opportunity to prevent 30 more years of the same in the form of Dunc Jr.
These are just a few examples- not offered up necessarily as the best or the most deserving. Our representatives have a singular opportunity this year to translate the success of a 50-state-strategy mentality into major systemic changes in California if they (and we) are willing to focus more resources inside the state. By no means am I suggesting that I want to see our Representatives contribute themselves broke (rainy days will come). Nor am I suggesting that they all necessarily need to be writing huge checks (they don’t all have the ability). And I’m not accusing anyone of being stingy (some generous and prolific fundraisers represent California). But the conventional wisdom that districts in California can’t flip belongs in the scrap heap. Jim Webb couldn’t win and now he’s a Senator. Nancy Boyda, Carol Shea-Porter, Jerry McNerney couldn’t win. Now they’re enjoying their new DC offices. And as Dave’s post reinforced earlier, districts in California can change.
California isn’t immune to the fundamental shift happening throughout the country. Heck, marriage equality is now supported by a majority of Californians. I’ve watched with great pride over past election cycles as California’s representatives have time and again stepped up to help the national party in all its forms stay competitive. But once in a generation is NOW. We can change the country, but we needn’t leave the state behind. With the June 3 primary now less than a week away, it’s a good time to remember that anyone can max out contributions once for the primary and again for the general election. Doubling the impact you have come November. I don’t really care who it is (I have my favorites, but that’s for me), as long as we remember that California is full of races we can win.
But beyond this week, this is an issue that carries all the way through to November. DCCC head Chris Van Hollen sees 50 Republican seats in play already, a number that may very well be an understatement. Plenty more can enter the field with some work, but only if we seize on this unique opportunity and press the advantage everywhere. It isn’t going to be all about money, but it’s definitely partly about money and $14.6 million is a whole lot of money. This can be a year that changes California if we commit to the funding as well as the time and energy, so I hope going forward that our Congressional leaders will help set the tone for all Californians by supporting the many viable challengers throughout the state.