All posts by Robert Cruickshank

Billionaire Wants To Shift Tax Burden to Middle Class

If you look up “tone deaf” in the dictionary right now, you might find a photo of Nicholas Berggruen. He’s the billionaire investor who founded the “Think Long Committee for California” last fall to revive corporate friendly “reform” policies. In news that should shock nobody at all, their tax proposals involve shifting the burden away from the rich and corporations and onto what’s left of the middle class. From Capitol Alert:

A coalition backed by some of the biggest names in California politics and a billionaire financier is readying for the ballot a sweeping overhaul of the Golden State’s tax system….

Californians would pay sales tax on all services except health care and education starting in July 2013.

The tax hike would boost state revenues by about 11 percent starting in 2013-14. The money would help retire debt in the first year and later go toward K-12 schools, higher education and local governments.

The state would also simplify the personal income tax system in 2014, charging no tax on income up to $45,000 for joint filers; 2 percent on income between $45,000 and $95,000; and 7.5 percent on income above $95,000.

The state would eliminate all personal income tax deductions except those on mortgage interest, property taxes, charitable donations and research and development. The sales tax rate on goods would drop by half a percentage point.

On average, taxpayers at every income level would pay more due to the new service tax. Households with adjusted income below $20,000 would pay $71 more annually, though they may be eligible for a sales tax rebate.

The plan lowers the corporate tax rate from 8.84 percent to 7 percent. It also raises taxes on out-of-state firms by requiring them to pay based on their share of sales in California.

In short: corporate taxes go down, income taxes go down for everyone but especially for the rich, and the sales tax goes up (in fact if not in rate). The middle class – what’s left of it, at least – would shoulder the burden of taxation in California even more than they already do.

The article itself is strangely written, as if Torey Van Oot and Kevin Yamamura agreed to obscure the true nature of the proposal by not describing how the personal tax rates change from the present day. Here’s the current personal income tax rates for joint filers:

$96,058 and up: 9.3% (with a 1% surcharge for incomes over $1 million)

$76,008 to $96,058: 8%

$54,754 to $76,008: 6%

$34,692 to $54,754: 4%

$14,632 to $34,692: 2%

$14,632 and under: 0%

Under the Think Long plan, all the rates would go down, but the rich would see a big drop from 9.3% to 7.5%. And yet as the article notes, with the sales tax changes the overall impact would mean that everyone else pays more. Because the income tax would only kick in at $45,000 for joint filers, it’s the middle class that gets hit hardest.

It should come as no surprise that a billionaire’s proposal for California is to give himself and his wealthy friends a huge tax cut and screw everybody else in the process. I am not at all opposed to asking the middle-class to pay more, everyone is going to have to pay a bit more to reverse California’s slide into the abyss. But that should be a progressive solution that includes asking the rich to pay a LOT more than they currently do, not asking them to pay less.

It’s also rather stunning to see this proposal come out as Californians have begun taking to the streets to protest policies exactly like this that favor the 1% at the expense of the 99%. Berggruen and the members of the Think Long Committee that are giving him cover have either not paid any attention to the Occupy movement or do not think it has much influence.

Still, it is difficult to see how this proposal stands a chance of passage. Voters aren’t stupid – they might like the income tax cuts, but will revolt at paying more sales tax, especially as they see the rich and corporations getting a big tax cut.

The proposal takes California in the wrong direction. There’s no doubt the state is in crisis. College is becoming unaffordable. K-12 schools may have to cut a week off of the school year. Millions are without guaranteed health care. Unemployment is at 11.7%. To solve those crises, government needs to step in and rebuild the middle class by providing free college, by massively investing in K-12 schools, by providing free and universal health care to everyone, by directly hiring people who need work, and by building out a 21st century infrastructure that will save money by reducing dependence on oil.

Making that happen requires going after the wealth currently controlled by the 1%. Income tax rates on them need to go up – way up. Higher tax rates on the rich and on corporations will actually spur economic growth by rebuilding the middle class, giving people the space and support they need to innovate, create jobs, and repair their balance sheets.

If Berggruen wanted to actually do something to help California, he would take the $20 million he is pledging to spend on this shockingly regressive proposal and instead invest it in an initiative to raise taxes on the rich, on corporations, and to fix the state’s unfair property tax system. Instead he’s using it to help himself and his friends get even richer.

This proposal is worse than a joke – it’s an insult. It should be denounced early and often.

Ending the Republican Gerrymander of California

Redistricting commission ends 20 years of unrealistic districts in a state that has decisively rejected Republicans

by Robert Cruickshank

I’ll admit it, I wasn’t a fan of the redistricting commission when it was proposed. I opposed Prop 11 in 2008, the initiative that created the commission; opposed Prop 20 in 2010, the initiative that extended the commission’s jurisdiction to Congressional seats; and supported Prop 27 that same year, which would have abolished the commission entirely.

What explained my stance? The arguments that commission supporters made struck me as absurd and not reflective of reality. Backers claimed that the commission would create a bunch of purple districts across the state, giving voters choices and somehow forcing politicians to work together.

In the real world, Californians were self-segregating based on shared values, meaning purple districts were unrealistic. And in real-world Sacramento, political paralysis was the cause of Republicans having broken the system so that a progressive majority couldn’t govern. I didn’t see how a redistricting commission would fix any of that.

There always was a very strong argument for the commission, but it took the actual commission’s work to reveal it. What makes the new districts so important – and what has turned me from an opponent of the process to a supporter – is that it showed us just how the 1992 and 2001 districts were pro-Republican and therefore unrepresentative of California. In short, the commission ended the Republican gerrymander of California. No wonder Pete Wilson and other Republicans want to reverse the outcome.

Pete Wilson’s role here is significant. In 1991, he fought hard to block the Democratic legislature from drawing the new districts based on the 1990 Census. A revealing New York Times article indicates the degree to which Wilson was motivated to promote GOP districts:

Pete Wilson’s main purpose in running for governor of California last year was to prevent the Democratic-controlled Legislature from cheating the Republicans when it came to reapportioning the state’s huge delegation to Congress.

The article goes on to explain Wilson’s alliance with moderate Republicans against the right and against Democrats, and hints at the bruising battles fought in the early 1980s over the districting process. But the overall narrative is the same and has been for 40 years: California is trending Democratic, and Republicans want to use the districting process to stem the tide by getting an unfair advantage.

By the fall of 1991 it was clear that Wilson and the legislature were locked in a standoff, and the State Supreme Court stepped in to resolve it. The Court had a Republican majority, thanks to 8 years of appointments by Governor George Deukmejian (and the 1986 recall of Jerry Brown-appointed Chief Justice Rose Bird and two other pro-Bird justices).

Wilson hailed the 1992 districts as “fair” but the results were clearly favorable to Republicans. In 1994 the Republicans won control of the Assembly for the first time in many years, and made gains at the Congressional level. Of course, 1994 was the year that the GOP committed suicide by embracing anti-Latino bigotry in the form of Prop 187.

The 1996, 1998 and 2000 elections all began the process of undoing the redistricting-induced gains. Democrats retook the Assembly in 1996, and unseated several prominent Republicans in 1998 and 2000 (including Clinton impeachment manager James Rogan, who was beaten by Adam Schiff).

Even in 2001 there were a lot of Republicans who owed their seats to the more favorable lines drawn by the court in 1992, but the trends were clear and the GOP was endangered. With Democrats now in control of the Legislature and the governor’s office, it would have made sense for them to draw more realistic districts that kept pace with the state’s demographic changes. But that also would have put a lot more seats up for grabs, and doing that wouldn’t have been cheap. So Democrats offered Republicans a deal. They would freeze everything in place, protecting Republican incumbents in exchange for Dems not having to play defense in California. The GOP took the deal.

As a result, very few seats changed hands in California in the ’00s. Chances to win 2/3 in the State Senate were missed when Don Perata refused to back a challenger to Abel Maldonado in 2008 (a district Obama wound up carrying by 20 points). Despite two wave elections favoring Democrats in 2006 and 2008, only one Congressional seat – CA-11 – flipped. Democrats like Bill Hedrick in CA-44, Debbie Cook in CA-46, and Charlie Brown in CA-04 came very close to picking off Republican incumbents in ’06 or ’08, but the legacy of 1992 was hard to overcome.

And yet the commission has done it. The 2012 races will be fought on the basis of districts that actually reflect reality in California, rather than districts that were frozen in time in 1992. A lot has changed in 20 years, including the fact that the electorate has decisively rejected the GOP. As long as the California Republican Party remains a party for conservative white men, they will never ever win a statewide election again, and will never be able to make significant reversals in Congressional or legislative seats. It is only fair that this rejection of Republicans be reflected in the new district lines.

Republicans will gnash their teeth and may well get a referendum on the ballot to kill the new district lines. If they do, the referendum will go down in flames. Californians have no patience for Republicans or right-wing politics. It is very, very hard to believe they will agree to gerrymander the state for the benefit of a party that hates everything about 21st century California.

It is time for the California Republican Party to accept the reality that they have become too extreme and too racist to have political relevance in the state. And it is time for progressives to begin planning for a new era, one in which the enemy is not necessarily “Republicans” but instead is corporate politics that may wrap itself in the mantle of either party, or no party at all.

Jerry Brown Gives Vote of Confidence to High Speed Rail

Governor rejects criticism of project and calls for “America to think big again”

by Robert Cruickshank

30 years ago, Governor Jerry Brown brought the concept of high speed rail to California. He fought hard to get Caltrans to embrace it and when a group of Japanese investors proposed a Shinkansen-style train from Los Angeles to San Diego in the early 1980s, Brown helped their project along, including giving it a CEQA exemption. The project died after Brown left office in 1983, but the concept remained.

As California is on the verge of building its first set of high speed tracks in the Central Valley, there’s been a lot of criticism of the project from longtime opponents. They’ve been getting traction given the general political movement towards reckless and insane austerity. But Jerry Brown, once again occupying the governor’s office, refuses to give in and abandon support for this transformative and important project.

In a meeting with the Fresno Bee editorial board, Brown reiterated his commitment to the project:

Gov. Jerry Brown said this afternoon that California’s embattled high-speed rail project should move forward, despite growing criticism about the project’s management and cost.

While the nation is in a “period of massive retrenchment,” Brown told The Fresno Bee’s editorial board, “I would like to be part of the group that gets America to think big again.”

Brown gets it, completely and entirely. The HSR project isn’t perfect, but we need to get it done and get it right for the future of our state. We are in no position to sit around and do nothing while our economic crisis continues. We learned during the Great Depression that the only way out is for government to take the lead and spend, especially on infrastructure projects that help create long-term value.

Brown also spoke about criticisms of the project:

Brown said he is “really getting into” the project and that “we’re working directly with the authority to get their act together.”

He said he will appoint a commissioner to fill a vacant seat on the agency’s governing board this week, though he declined to say who.

“I’m doing the best I can to keep this train running,” Brown said.

These are positive statements that suggest Brown is interested in ensuring HSR is built – and built right. He is not likely to give in to the small but loud chorus of voices who believes we should do nothing about our transportation needs, our jobs crisis, or our energy problems. That’s now how Brown operates.

Brown is going to engage more deeply on the issue over the next few months, as he spent the first half of 2011 focused on the state budget. This is a good opportunity for HSR advocates to help get a better project – and serves as a reminder to HSR opponents that the Governor is not going to help them kill the project he spent 30 years championing.

More from the Fresno Bee:

Brown said the statewide system of 220-mph passenger trains would put California into a league of “important countries [that] are investing in high-speed rail,” joining Germany, England, France, Japan and others.

High-speed rail, he said, “could reshape the Valley. … But it is expensive, and people are coming out of the woodwork to oppose this, whether they’re from Atherton or farmers.”

Translation: Brown is paying attention, and knows about the anti-HSR criticism…and is unfazed by it.

“The numbers look big,” Brown said, but he added that the investment is small when compared to the state’s economic productivity over the life of the system. That, he suggested, is why the state needs to “look to the future instead of the past.”

This is the best quote of all. Brown understands the value of investment, the dividends that HSR will create, and the need to build for the future.

Today was not a good day to be an opponent of California high speed rail.

California’s New Tax Revolt

by Robert Cruickshank

Over 30 years ago California was gripped by the “tax revolt,” where the right led a wave of white populist anger at rising tax bills and public services for people of color to begin the long assault on taxes and government.

But that revolt has faded in California, and is about to be replaced by a new tax revolt – one that recognizes taxes, especially on the rich, are actually too low in order to maintain prosperity and the public services that enable the California Dream.

Over at Huffington Post SF I wrote about the new tax revolt. While I’ll make you go over there and read the whole thing, I will give an excerpt:

Tax revolts happen when the public realizes that their dreams of economic security, a beautiful place to live, and a better life for their children are going to be lost unless changes are made to the revenue system. As Californians watch their public services collapse, taking with it the prosperity those services made possible, they are ready to lead a new tax revolt. It will transform the state just as it did in 1978. And this time, it will rebuild the California Dream, rather than destroy it.

This theme has been cropping up a lot lately, as my post explains. Two weeks ago the San Francisco Chronicle examined the high cost of low taxes, and I was quoted there as well:

The higher fees, most notably for state college and university tuition, represent “in effect, a huge whopping tax increase on California families and students,” said Robert Cruickshank, who writes about state politics at the liberal Calitics.com.

“You’re starting to see the anger,” Cruickshank said. “You can let your roads collapse, you close fire stations or watch your library permanently shut down, but Californians are starting to realize” they’d be willing to pay higher taxes to keep those services.

As I pointed out last month, the wealthy and large corporations have been making more money but paying less in taxes over the last 30 years. Instead of that money going to make college affordable, provide more people with affordable health care, or maintain our roads and give people alternatives to high gas prices, the money is simply going to the pockets of rich people. No wonder the public is beginning to revolt.

This revolt won’t happen overnight. But neither did the 1970s tax revolt. That one took time to achieve its climactic victories. This new revolt will too. But it is underway. And among its victims will be what is left of the moribund, fringe, and unpopular California Republican Party.

Tax Reform That Benefits The Rich Isn’t Tax Reform

It’s becoming clear that, despite the efforts of the Zombie Death Cult to stop it, Californians are going to vote sometime between now and November 2012 on whether taxes will go up in order to ensure everyone can live the California Dream, instead of suffering in poverty, hunger, illness and without education or a job.

The question now is, what kind of tax proposals will we see?

Taxes need to go up across the board. Everyone needs to pay more. But whereas most working Californians need to pay only a little bit more, the rich and the corporations need to pay a LOT more. The state’s recession and its budget problems stem from the inequality caused by 30 years of successful conservative policy to create huge tax loopholes for the rich.

As wealth flowed out from public services and the pockets of the middle class and especially from low-income Californians, the pillars of the economy and the state budget eroded. It’s become a vicious cycle, creating bigger economic crises, worse budget deficits, and more dire living conditions for the Golden State.

So obviously the first step of any sensible tax reform would have to be reversing this process by jacking taxes up on the wealthy and the corporations.

After all, the evidence is clear that’s where the money is:



(Source: California Budget Project)

Corporations saw their income rise by 400% from 2001 to 2008. The average growth in wages and income for everyone else in the state was about 25%. That’s unequal and unjust. The corporations have our money, and it’s time we took it back.

Further, a higher corporate rate has been used in the recent past without causing problems for the state’s economy:



(Source: California Budget Project)

Between 1967 and 1980 the corporate rate rose from 5.5% to 9.6%. The first spike upward was, in fact, signed into law by Governor Ronald Reagan. California businesses did well in the second half of the 1970s and very well in the 1980s. Silicon Valley in particular thrived during these years. California’s schools were top-notch and higher education was still affordable. We are, in fact, living off the investments we made during those years, although they’re nearly exhausted.

So we can see a clear case for a higher corporate tax rate. What about a higher personal income tax rate?



(Source: California Budget Project)

Same here. If you want to go where the money is – and good tax policy suggests you should – then a higher income tax is a good idea too.

It’s especially significant when you consider that California has a single tax bracket for individual incomes between about $45,000 and $999,999. In other words, someone who makes just $50K a year pays the same income tax rate as someone making just under $1 million a year. It’s totally fucking absurd.

That’s why Californians want higher taxes on the rich. The recent “deliberative poll” by Next CA purportedly shows similar results, although they haven’t yet released that part of the poll.

Progressives, led by Fix California, are calling on Governor Jerry Brown to include a 1% tax surcharge on the incomes of the top 1% in the proposals he will help bring to the November 2012 ballot. That’s a damn good start to true tax reform. So too is the so-called “split roll” where the Prop 13 tax loophole is closed for commercial property, something Jerry Brown recently hinted he was open to doing.

Unfortunately, as Dan Morain points out in today’s Sacramento Bee, the wealthy corporatists have a different idea:

Although it’s too early to contemplate the 2012 general election ballot, politicos already are hard at work. California Forward, a nonprofit funded by civic-minded philanthropists, is among the groups working on initiatives, as is Think Long, which is funded by billionaire Nicholas Berggruen.

Writer Nathan Gardels, part of the Think Long group, laid out a tentative prescription for fixing state government and the initiative system. More detailed proposals will come by Oct. 1.

“Our idea is to reboot and install new civic software,” Gardels told me.

Gardels said the group is contemplating a ballot measure that would significantly cut income taxes, while extending sales taxes to services. The additional money – perhaps $20 billion extra a year – would go to local government and schools.

This is the wrong direction. Extending sales taxes to services IS a good idea – everyone needs to pay more to save the California Dream from collapse, but some people, like the rich and the corporations, need to pay a LOT more. Lowering the income and corporate tax rates are a huge step backward, and will produce more budget deficits and a weaker economy because, as the evidence shows, they will produce greater inequality.

In May 2009 conservatives opposed to taxes and progressives opposed to spending caps united to defeat Prop 1A. It’s clear that there is an electoral majority to oppose this kind of corporate-friendly crap. We know that conservatives will vote against a proposal that would extend sales taxes to services, even if it contained lower income and corporate tax rates. Their ideological opposition to taxes is that absolute.

So groups like California Forward and Think Long will have to count on progressives being suckers and voting for a bad deal that merely makes inequality worse.

Progressives need to say it loudly and clearly and say it now: no cuts to income or corporate tax rates will be acceptable. Any proposal that includes further cuts will be opposed by progressives. Those cuts are not options.

Instead, we need to raise both rates, and start on the upper end of the scale. Income and corporate tax rates ought to start rising, not falling, if California is to have a future of shared prosperity, high quality of life, and a population that is happy instead of suffering.

Shame

Last night a crowd of farmworkers, UFW leaders, and Democratic legislators gathered in front of Governor Jerry Brown’s Capitol office, awaiting word on whether he would sign SB 104, a bill that would help farmworker safety and prosperity by allowing them to organize unions via card check. The UFW pushed it after a rash of heat-related deaths in the fields in recent years, deaths that could have been prevented if more farmworkers had unions to protect them.

Brown had played up his connections to Cesar Chavez and the UFW during the campaign, and notably signed the Agricultural Labor Relations Act in 1975 recognizing the right of farmworkers to organize unions.

The governor’s office had been silent on the bill, not giving any indication what he would do. As the midnight deadline for action approached, the crowd grew, especially after the legislature approved the budget, hoping for good news.

Instead they received a shock as Governor Brown vetoed SB 104, siding with big business over farmworkers. Brown’s veto message doesn’t really give any explanation for the veto, except that it changes the ALRA which, apparently, Brown wants to keep taking credit for even after its shortcomings have been revealed:

SB 104 is indeed a drastic change and I appreciate the frustrations that have given rise to it. But, I am not yet convinced that the far reaching proposals of this bill–which alter in a significant way the guiding assumptions of the ALRA–are justified. Before restructuring California’s carefully crafted agricultural labor law, it is only right that the legislature consider legal provisions that more carefully track its original framework. The process should include all those who are affected by the ALRA.

In other words, Brown wants something that will make agribusiness happy – the same people who have shown no concern over farmworker heat deaths, who are happy to continue to pay workers poorly.

This is one of the problems you get with bringing back a former governor to office. Brown basically thinks nothing has changed in 36 years and that despite the proven shortcomings of the ALRA, it is fine and doesn’t need to be fixed, especially if it makes agribusiness sad.

Of course, Brown pulled shit like this all the time when he was governor in the 1970s and 1980s, vetoing or opposing legislation that his allies strongly backed. It infuriated Democrats and helped give an opening to the right. More of that crap is the price we paid for beating Meg Whitman.

If all-cuts budgets and vetoing labor legislation is what we’re going to get from Governor Brown, let’s hope he decides on only one term, and lets California move on to better leadership in 2014.

Constitution-Making Is An Inherently Ideological Exercise

Over the weekend a new reform organization, What’s Next California?, held a deliberative poll to discuss fixing the broken system of government we have here in California. Viewing it from afar, mostly via twitter stream, the whole thing appears to have been utterly fascinating and, I would suggest, a generally useful exercise in getting a deeper understanding of Californians’ views on their state government and what might be done in order to fix it.

But this exercise has two inherent limitations. The first is its center-right lens, which blinds the organizers to the true breadth of opinion in California. Related from that is the second limitation, which is an unwillingness to acknowledge that California’s problems are not merely structural, but ideological, and only ideological solutions will show the way out of this mess.

What’s Next California? appears to be an exercise in promoting center-right solutions for California. For example, on taxation and fiscal policy, the proposals are generally center-right. A higher income tax on the rich, or a higher tax rate on corporations, both of which poll well, was not included as one of the possible options for fixing our revenue problem. Given the central nature of this problem to California’s budget issues – rising wealth inequality and the lowering of tax rates on the rich (which helped produce that inequality) have gutted the state budget – any solution to the state’s budget problems needs to address this fundamental inequality. Any solution that doesn’t address it is inherently flawed.

But they don’t address it because like so many other constitutional reform exercises, What’s Next California? is not willing to admit that the problem is not just structural – it is ideological. California is a progressive state with a progressive electorate that wants progressive policies. But conservatives have been able to shape the structure of government to prevent that progressive impulse from being expressed. That is the California constitutional and structural problem in a nutshell.

Of course, as a center-right project What’s Next California? ignores this in the service of their own ideological lens, which holds that the right is usually right and the left is crazy. In other words, maybe the state does need structural impediments to the realization of a progressive agenda even if that’s what a majority wants.

What’s Next California? seems to want to find the place where Californians can agree on a governmental structure that works for all, to find majority support for specific reforms, and assumes that people will want those things because they either want good government or because they share the view of What’s Next California? that neoliberal technocrats know what is best for California government.

Again, while I think the data-gathering aspect of the deliberative poll is quite valuable, I don’t see any actual movement happening on a reform agenda as a result of the deliberative poll. That is because constitutional change only happens because of a mass desire for ideological change.

How did Prop 13, the most important constitutional change in the last 60 years in California, get put into place? Not as a result of careful deliberation, but as a result of a right-wing reaction against the realization that they were losing their grip on California. It was an ideologically-driven change. So too was the adoption of the initiative, referendum and recall 100 years ago this October, although that time it came from the left.

The fact is that Californians, like most other human beings, do not view constitutions as abstract documents the way supposedly independent and nonpartisan analysts do. They see constitutions for what they actually are: a blueprint for producing a specific kind of government that will ensure ideologically-specific outcomes.

We can see how this works when it comes to the key issues of the day. Let’s go back to taxes. If you are a conservative, you want to make it as difficult as possible for government to raise taxes, so you will never ever support weakening the 2/3 rule. If you are a progressive, you are highly motivated to support majority vote on budget and taxes because you realize that government spending is essential for prosperity. That divide is unbridgeable. Californians have to choose one.

Let’s take the legislature. If you’re a conservative, you don’t like the legislature because as a democratic institution it represents a majority whose values are very different from your own. Its leaders are liberal, are diverse, and in the Assembly at least, are LGBT. Conservatives view the legislature with contempt because it embodies – literally – the new reality in California, and can make laws that reflect it. So conservatives have every reason to weaken the power of the legislature, whereas progressives have every reason to want to increase it.

Would conservatives support massively increasing the size of the state legislature to 300, 500, or even 1000? Not if it meant that the new California majority, which is diverse and progressive, would be given more power. Would conservatives support things like multiple-member districts, proportional representation, or instant runoff voting? Again, not if it diluted their power. And let’s face it, progressives like these things because we believe it will make it easier to govern a state that has already chosen us to lead it.

Further, there won’t be any momentum to change the status quo except from one ideological base or another. Constitutions change not because a bunch of smart people decide the system should change (if so California’s constitution would have changed LONG ago) but because a bunch of motivated people decide the system should change.

All these groups that are sponsoring What’s Next California? seem to be trying desperately to avoid having constitution-making become an ideological exercise. But that’s what it is and what it has always been. There’s nothing wrong with that. An ideology, after all, is merely a worldview that provides coherence, sense, and stability to a set of similar ideas and shared values. Constitutions that are produced for ideological purposes are better and stronger. Constitutions that are the result of compromise tend to fail, as the 1787 Constitution failed in 1860 and as it appears to be failing again today.

We know how this debate over constitutional reform will end – the same way the Constitutional Convention proposal ended in 2010. The wealthy backers will shy away because they will perceive the process as having too much risk to their bottom line. The right will see no need to change because the main reason we need a convention or any other kind of reform is because the 2/3 rule broke state government. And the left will want to see a lot of change, but will rightly walk away if the reform agenda is rigged to prevent their goals from being satisfied through the process.

I look forward to seeing the results of the deliberative poll. Not because I think it will show consensus answers, but because it will help us progressives have a better understanding of what we need to do to achieve our own constitutional changes.

Legislative Analyst’s Office Slapped Down by Federal Government

One core piece of the Legislative Analyst’s Office’s attack on HSR was their suggestion that California follow the lead of Scott Walker and Chris Christie and demand that we be allowed to use federal rail funds for other purposes, including delaying their expenditure. I predicted that the feds would not go along with this, and that the LAO would have known this if anyone on their staff actually had a clue about HSR.

Today we learn that I was right and the LAO was wrong:

Federal officials say that a 2012 deadline to start construction of a multibillion-dollar high-speed rail system in California is firm and can’t be postponed.

The U.S. Transportation Department said in a letter Wednesday to the California High-Speed Rail Authority that regulators have no authority to change the deadline. The department also says it won’t allow the state to move the first stretch of track from the Central Valley to a coastal city.

The LAO ought to toss out their report and start from scratch, this time with people who actually know a thing or two about HSR, interview people who have worked on HSR, gather stats from other countries (and from the Acela) on HSR, assess the benefits of HSR as well as the costs of not building HSR, and produce a report that actually provides some informed discussion and recommendations that are based in reality and respect what the people of California voted to do.

The report has made the LAO look foolish and uninformed. For the sake of their own credibility, they would be wise to start over. California deserves a well-informed assessment of the HSR project, not an uninformed hit job that is so easily dismissed.

Supreme Court Calls BS on California

I suppose someone should write about today’s 5-4 US Supreme Court decision in Brown v. Plata, where the court ruled that California must release 33,000 prisoners to relieve overcrowding in state prisons. So I’ll take a shot at it.

The ruling is basically the Supreme Court calling bullshit on 30 years of “law and order” politics in California. Since George Deukmejian became governor in 1982 – and enabled, it should be noted, by stiffer sentences Jerry Brown approved the first time he was governor in the 1970s – California has gone on a prison-building binge. Nearly 25 new prisons were built in the last 30 years. In contrast, only 3 CSU campuses were opened (two of which, CSUCI and CSU Monterey Bay, were reuses of existing facilities) and only 1 new UC campus, Merced, was built. This is despite the fact that the cost of building prisons and colleges is about the same, the fact that prison guards make more money than most professors, and the fact that students at least pay for their room and board, whereas prisoners don’t. Oh, and the fact that educating is preferable to jailing them.

California built all these prisons and kept passing tougher and tougher sentencing laws, most of which were absurd or unnecessarily harsh. But California didn’t seem to realize you actually have to pay for the costs of operating all those prisons. And as prisoners age, their health care needs increase, and you have to pay for those things too.

But California legislators thought they could have it both ways – they could score points with a late 20th century electorate by filling the prisons, and score points with the same electorate by not paying to maintain those prisons or care for the prisoners. This was an untenable situation, and it has finally blown up in Sacramento’s face.

Legislators may complain about mass release of prisoners, but they have had plenty of time to avoid doing so, and at every turn have chosen to ignore the underlying problems. The Supreme Court has finally, and rightly, said that this situation is nonsense and cannot continue.

Now a mass release doesn’t have to happen. There are still alternatives. California could actually do some sensible things to deal with the issue. First off, they could stop adding to the overcrowding by finally passing some sentencing reform. They could start by legalizing marijuana – 47% of voters indicated their support for it by voting for Prop 19 last year. Eventually, and soon, legalization will become a majority position. The state could simply speed that up by a couple years and save money in the process.

California could also help end the cycle of recidivism by actually funding parole and rehabilitation programs. Once someone leaves prison, it would make sense for them to not have to return. Investing in programs to get ex-cons back into society and ensure they stay out of trouble is smart – and it frees resources to ensure that parole officers can do a better job tracking people likely to reoffend.

Jerry Brown appears to be learning his lesson. He used today’s ruling to call for tax increase (and can I stop for a moment and point out how awesome it is that finally, Democrats are using moments of crisis to advance a progressive agenda?). That’s a necessary part of the answer.

But it’s incomplete unless Brown adopts some sort of sentencing reform. He needs to recognize his error, that the increased sentences and mandatory minimums of the 1970s were an unwise act of political expediency and need to be replaced with something more sensible. It would be good if the Legislature followed that path too.

The Supreme Court has given California the chance to do something sensible on prisons for the first time in many decades. Let’s hope Sacramento follows through.

Conservatives, Communication and Coalitions

The latest round of argument within the progressive coalition over the Obama Administration – touched off by Cornel West’s scathing criticism – has generated a lot of heated discussion. Most of it seems to simply repeat the same arguments that have been played out over the last two years: Obama is a sellout, Obama is doing the best he can, you’re not being fair to him, he’s not being fair to us. Leaving aside for this article the personality issues at play here, what’s really going on is a deeper fracture over the progressive coalition. Namely, whether one exists at all.

Whenever these contentious arguments erupt, a common response from progressives is to bemoan the “circular firing squad” and point to the right, where this sort of self-destructive behavior is rarely ever seen. Instead, the right exhibits a fanatic message discipline that would have made the Politburo envious. Grover Norquist holds his famous “Wednesday meetings” where right-wing strategy and message are coordinated. Frank Luntz provides the talking points, backed by his research. And from there, and from numerous other nodes in the right-wing network, the message gets blasted out. Conservatives dutifully repeat the refrain, which becomes a cacophony that generates its own political force. Republicans ruthlessly use that message, that agenda, to shift the nation’s politics to the right, even as Americans themselves remain on the center-left of most issues.

(more over the flip)

“Can’t we be more like them?” ask these progressives who understandably grow tired of the Obama wars. The conservatives’ disciplined communications strategy typically gets ascribed to one of these factors. Some see it as an inherent feature of their ideology – the right is hierarchical, the left is anarchic. (Of course, the 20th century Communist movement disproved that.) Others see it as an inherent feature of their brains – conservatives are said to have an “authoritarian” brain where everything is black and white and where values and ideas are simply accepted from a higher-up, whereas liberals have brains that see nuance and prize critical thinking, making them predisposed to squabble instead of unite. And still others just see the conservatives as being smarter, knowing not to tear each other down, with the implication that progressives who engage in these bruising internal battles simply don’t know any better, or are so reckless as not to care.

Perhaps some of those factors are all at work. But I want to argue that the truth is far simpler. Conservatives simply understand how coalitions work, and progressives don’t. Conservative communication discipline is enabled only by the fact that everyone in the coalition knows they will get something for their participation. A right-winger will repeat the same talking points even on an issue he or she doesn’t care about or even agree with because he or she knows that their turn will come soon, when the rest of the movement will do the same thing for them.

Progressives do not operate this way. We spend way too much time selling each other out, and way too little time having each other’s back. This is especially true within the Democratic Party, where progressives share a political party with another group of people – the corporate neoliberals – who we disagree with on almost every single issue of substance. But within our own movement, there is nothing stopping us from exhibiting the same kind of effective messaging – if we understood the value of coalitions.

A coalition is an essential piece of political organizing. It stems from the basic fact of human life that we are not all the same. We do not have the same political motivations, or care about the same issues with equal weight. Some people are more motivated by social issues, others by economic issues. There is plenty of overlap, thanks to share core values of equality, justice, and empathy. But in a political system such as ours, we can’t do everything at once. Priorities have to be picked, and certain issues will come before others.

How that gets handled is essential to an effective political movement. If one part of the coalition gets everything and the other parts get nothing, then the coalition will break down as those who got nothing will get unhappy, restive, and will eventually leave. Good coalitions understand that everyone has to get their issue taken care of, their goals met – in one way or another – for the thing to hold together.

Conservatives understand this implicitly. The Wednesday meeting is essentially a coalition maintenance session, keeping together what could be a fractious and restive movement. Everyone knows they will get their turn. Why would someone who is primarily motivated by a desire to outlaw abortion support an oil company that wants to drill offshore? Because the anti-choicers know that in a few weeks, the rest of the coalition will unite to defund Planned Parenthood. And a few weeks after that, everyone will come together to appease Wall Street and the billionaires by fighting Elizabeth Warren. And then they’ll all appease the US Chamber by fighting to break a union.

There are underlying values that knit all those things together, common threads that make the communications coherent. But those policies get advanced because their advocates work together to sell the narrative.

Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker is primarily a fiscal conservative. So why would he attack domestic partner benefits? New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is not an anti-science zealot. So why would he refuse to say if he believes in evolution or creationism? Former California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger supported marriage equality and refused to defend Prop 8 in court. So why did he twice veto a bill passed by the state legislature to veto marriage equality?

The answer to the above is simple: because they knew the importance of keeping the coalition together. They know that each part has to be looked after, or else the thing will fall apart as different constituencies turn on the person who failed to advance their agenda.

Members of the conservative coalition do not expect to get everything all at once. An anti-choice advocate would love to overturn Roe v. Wade tomorrow. But they don’t get angry when that doesn’t happen in a given year. Not because they are self-disciplined and patient, but because they get important victories year after year that move toward that goal. One year it could be a partial-birth abortion ban. The next year it could be defunding of Planned Parenthood. The year after that it could be a ban on any kind of federal funding of abortions, even indirect. (And in 2011, they’re getting some of these at the same time.)

More importantly, they know that even if their issue doesn’t get advanced in a given year, they also know that the other members of the coalition will not allow them to lose ground. If there’s no way to further restrain abortion rights (Dems control Congress, the voters repeal an insane law like South Dakota’s attempt to ban abortion), fine, the conservative coalition will at least fight to ensure that ground isn’t lost. They’ll unite to fight efforts to rescind a partial-birth abortion ban, or add new funding to Planned Parenthood. Those efforts to prevent losses are just as important to holding the coalition together as are the efforts to achieve policy gains.

Being in the conservative coalition means never having to lose a policy fight – or if you do lose, it won’t be because your allies abandoned you.

This is where the real contrast with the progressive and Democratic coalitions lies. Within the Democratic Party, for example, members of the coalition are constantly told it would be politically reckless to advance their goals, or that they have to give up ground previously won. The implicit message to that member of the coalition is that they don’t matter as much, that their goals or values are less important. That’s a recipe for a weak and ineffectual coalition.

There are lots of examples to illustrate the point. If someone is primarily motivated to become politically active because they oppose war, then telling them to support bombing of Libya in order to be part of the coalition is never, ever going to work. If someone was outraged by torture policies under President Bush, you’ll never get them to believe that torture is OK when President Obama orders it. If someone is motivated by taking action on climate change, then Democrats should probably pass a climate bill instead of abandoning it and instead promoting coal and oil drilling. If someone supports universal health care and wants insurance companies out of the picture, you need to at least give them something (like a public option) if you’re going to otherwise mandate Americans buy private insurance.

The LGBT rights movement offered an excellent example of this. For his first two years in office, not only did President Obama drag his feet on advancing LGBT rights goals, he actively began handing them losses, such as discharging LGBT soldiers under the “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” policy or having his Justice Department file briefs in support of the Defense of Marriage Act. Obama argued that he could not advance the policy goals of DADT or DOMA repeal, but even if that were true, he was breaking up his coalition by also handing the LGBT rights movement losses on things like discharges and defending DOMA. It was only when LGBT organizations, activists, and donors threatened to leave the Obama coalition that the White House finally took action to end DADT.

A good coalition recognizes that not everyone is there for the same reason. The “Obama wars” online tend to happen because its participants do not recognize this fact. For a lot of progressives and even a lot of Democrats, re-electing President Obama is not the reason they are in politics. And if Obama has been handing them losses, then appealing to them on the basis of “Obama’s doing the best he can” or “the GOP won’t let him go further” is an argument that they’ll find insulting. This works in reverse. If someone believes that Obama is a good leader, or that even if he isn’t perfect he’s better than any alternative (especially a Republican alternative) then they won’t react well to a criticism of Obama for not attending to this or that progressive policy matter.

Cornel West has basically argued that he is leaving the Obama coalition because Obama turned his back on West’s agenda. That’s a legitimate reaction, whether you agree or not with the words West used to describe what happened. Cornel West won’t sway someone whose primarily political motivation is to defend Obama if he calls Obama a “black mascot” and an Obama defender won’t sway Cornel West if they’re telling West that he’s wrong to expect Obama to deliver on his agenda.

The bigger problem is that it is very difficult to successfully maintain a coalition in today’s Democratic Party. Michael Gerson has identified something I have been arguing for some time – that the Democratic Party is actually two parties artificially melded together. I wrote about this in the California context last fall – today’s Democratic Party has two wings to it. One wing is progressive, anti-corporate, and distrusts the free market. The other wing is neoliberal, pro-corporate, and trusts the free market.

These two wings have antithetical views on many, many things. Neoliberals believe that privatization of public schools is a good idea. Progressives vow to fight that with every bone in their body. Neoliberals believe that less regulation means a healthier economy. Progressives believe that we are in a severe recession right now precisely because of less regulation. Neoliberals believe that corporate power is just fine, progressives see it as a threat to democracy.

The only reason these two antithetical groups share a political party is because the Republicans won’t have either one. The neoliberals tend to be socially liberal – they support civil unions or outright marriage equality, don’t hate immigrants, and know that we share a common ancestor with the chimps. 35 years ago they might have still had a place in the Republican Party, but in the post-Reagan era, they don’t. So they came over to the Democrats, who after 1980 were happy to have as many votes as possible – and whose leaders were uneasy at the growing ranks of dirty hippies among the party base.

As to those progressives, destroying their values and institutions is the reason today’s GOP exists, so they clearly can’t go to that party. They don’t have the money to completely dominate the Democratic Party. Neither do they have the money to start their own political party, and right now they don’t want to, given the widespread belief that Ralph Nader cost Al Gore the 2000 election and led to the Bush disaster.

To our north, the neoliberals and progressives do have their own parties. The Canadian election earlier this month gave Conservatives a majority, but it also gave a historic boost to the New Democratic Party, home of Canada’s progressives, while the Liberal Party, home of Canada’s neoliberals, lost half their seats. Those parties have an easier time holding together their coalitions, and that enabled the NDP to break through and become the party that is poised to take power at the next election once Canadians react against Stephen Harper’s extremist agenda.

Still, for a variety of structural, financial, and practical reasons most American progressives are not yet ready to go down the path of starting their own party. And that makes mastery of coalition politics even more important.

Cornel West needlessly personalized things. He would have been on stronger ground had he pointed out, correctly, that Obama has not done a good job of coalition politics. Progressives have not only failed to advance much of their agenda, but are increasingly being told to accept rollbacks, which as we’ve seen doesn’t happen on the other side and is key to holding conservatism together as an effective political force. Obama told unions to accept a tax increase on their health benefits, and promptly lost his filibuster-proof majority in the US Senate in the Massachusetts special election. While Republicans are facing a big political backlash for actually turning on members of their coalition – for the first time in a long time – by proposing to end Medicare, Obama risks alienating more of his coalition by promoting further austerity. Civil libertarians have seen loss after loss under Obama (which explains clearly why Glenn Greenwald does not feel any need to defend Obama). Obama has consistently sided with the banks and has done nothing to help homeowners facing foreclosure. Hardly anybody has been prosecuted for the crimes and fraud at the heart of Wall Street during the 2000s boom.

There’s no doubt that any Democratic president faces a difficult task in holding together a political coalition made up of two groups – progressives and neoliberals – who distrust each other and are in many ways fighting each other over the basic economic issues facing this country. But Obama has not made much effort to keep progressives on his side. He halfheartedly advocated for their goals, did some things to roll back progressive gains and values, and expects progressives to remain in the coalition largely out of fear of a Republican presidency. That’s a legitimate reason to stay, don’t get me wrong. But it won’t work for everybody, and nobody should be surprised when some progressives walk. Everyone has their limit.

It has been clear that Obama is of the neoliberal wing of the Democratic Party. He always was (and so too was Hillary Clinton). It’s far easier for a neoliberal Democrat to win over just enough progressives to gain the party presidential nomination than vice-versa. Progressives are debating amongst themselves whether it makes sense to stay in that coalition if the terms are, as they have been since the late 1970s, subservience to a neoliberal agenda. I do not expect that debate to end anytime soon.

What we can do – and what we must do – is ensure that within the progressive coalition, we DO practice good coalitional behavior. If we are going to stay inside the Democratic Party, then we have to overcome the neoliberal wing. To do that, we have to be a disciplined and effective coalition. And to do that, we have to have each other’s back. We have to attend to each other’s needs. We have to recognize that everyone who wants to be in the coalition has a legitimate reason to be here, and has legitimate policy goals. If we have different goals – if Person A cares most about ending the death penalty, if Person B cares most about reducing carbon emissions, and if Person C cares most about single-payer health care, we have to make sure everyone not only gets their turn, but also make sure that each does not have to suffer a loss at our hands. If we find that we have goals that are in conflict, then we have to resolve that somehow.

One thing is clear: no coalition has ever succeeded with one part telling the other that their values are flawed, that they are wrong to want what they want, that they are wrong to be upset when they don’t get something. We are not going to change people’s values, and we should not make doing so the price of admission to a coalition. Unless we want to. In which case we have to accept the political consequences. I’d be happy to say we will never, and must never, coalition with neoliberals. But that has political consequences that many other progressives find unacceptable.

If we are going to address the severe crisis that is engulfing our country, we need to become better at building and maintaining coalitions. That means we have to decide who we want in the coalition, how we will satisfy their needs, and what price to maintain the coalition is too high to pay. Those are necessary, even essential political practices. It’s time we did that, rather than beating each other over the head for not seeing things exactly the way we do ourselves.

Only then will be become the disciplined and effective operation that we want.