All posts by Brian Leubitz

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LA: Romer not happy with Villaraigosa’s plan

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Roy Romer, former governor of Colorado and current superintendent of LAUSD, does not like Villaraigosa’s takeover of the schools.  He was hoping for more superintendent control and feels that the unions get too much power.

The powerful teachers union in the Los Angeles Unified School District would get unprecedented control over what kids are taught and how schools are run under a deal brokered by Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa to save his reform plan, LAUSD Superintendent Roy Romer charged Thursday.
Villaraigosa insisted he will take personal responsibility for L.A. schools, but Romer – in his toughest remarks yet – said draft legislation shows the mayor’s deal would undercut gains in student achievement and send the nation’s second-largest district spiraling out of control.

“I’m concerned about the level of power the union would have. … This turns over massive tools of change to the union,” Romer said.

“If passed, this bill would transfer that power to the union to control curriculum at a site-based level. This is a very serious mistake and one the mayor and unions bought off on because they’re trying to serve each other’s interests.”

The mayor’s key education adviser defended the deal negotiated late Tuesday behind closed doors with United Teachers Los Angeles and the California Teachers Association, long one of the most powerful and biggest-spending lobbying groups in Sacramento.

“Yes, this was a negotiation between the mayor and the teachers union, and yes, as in most negotiations, each side gave up things that they wanted, but there was no giving of additional power to the teachers union,” said Thomas Saenz, counsel to the mayor. (LA Daily News 6/23/06)

I think the proper balance of power for LAUSD is still in the air.  The expirement of mayoral takeover has been mildly successful elsewhere, but in a city as diverse as L.A., success is by no means guaranteed.

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San Jose WasteGate yields indictments for the Mayor, aide

San Jose Mayor Ron Gonzales was indicted and turned himself in for arrest yesterday:

Mayor Ron Gonzales of San Jose, Calif., and a top aide surrendered to the police yesterday after being indicted in connection with an $11.25 million contract to haul garbage.
Mr. Gonzales said he was innocent but added that he would not comment further until he had seen the contents of the indictment, which were not made public. Mr. Gonzales and the aide, Joe Guerra, his budget and policy director, were released after posting bail, another mayoral aide said.
(NYT 6/23/06)

So far, 6 council members have called on Gonzales to step down.  Gonzales says that he can continue on the job despite his indictment:

Saying he is “feeling fine,” Mayor Ron Gonzales this morning said he is confident he can be an effective leader despite being indicted in six felony counts.  A day after he was arrested, booked and released on $50,000 bail, Gonzales made his weekly 7:15 a.m. Friday appearance on KGO radio and attended a meeting of his Mayor’s Gang Prevention Task Force.

“I believe in my god and know that justice will prevail,” Gonzales said on KGO. “I know I will be proven innocent because I know I’m innocent. When you’re innocent you can hold your head high and continue on and that’s what we’re going to continue to do here at City Hall.”
***
On calls from city council members who want him to resign, Gonzales reiterated he will not step down from office. “I believe I can continue to do this job,” he said, adding that after the initial “hullabaloo” he can carry with his duties.

“Every administration and every mayor has certain crises,” Gonzales said. “You have to learn how to manage through them. I think we’ve done that and I think I’ve proven that ability in the past … We have work left to do.” (SJ Merc 6/23/06)

But Gonzales misses the point, the future of San Jose politics is not Ron Gonzales.  And at this point even if he is not convicted, Gonzales’ political career is pretty much over.  I understand his desire not to be forced from office, but it’s hurting the city.  It has already cast a pallor over the race between Chavez and Reed. 

He is not doing the City of San Jose any favors by staying in the job.  It gives the city a tarnish it doesn’t need, and at this point is Gonzales really effective?  Would it really matter if Gonzales were not there for the next few months?  I doubt it.  And the scandal can’t be good for the business climate of the city to have an indicted mayor:

Professor Gerston said that at the least the indictments cast a shadow over the city’s reputation. They could “lead representatives of the private sector to shy away from doing business with the city,” he said. … His case has helped shape the political landscape. The issue of corruption among elected officials was a central theme in the primary election for mayor on June 6, Professor Gerston said. (NYT 6/23/06) 

It’s time for Gonzales to resign.  He should do the right thing by the City of San Jose.

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Julie Doolittle: An ignorance genius

Julie Doolittle apparently knew nothing of the source of funds that Jack Abramoff was funnelling her.

A Senate investigation into lobbyist Jack Abramoff’s shady dealings said the company owned by the wife of Rep. John Doolittle was paid more than $66,000 over two years out of funds from a California Indian gaming tribe, but concluded Julie Doolittle knew nothing about where the money came from, according to a report released Thursday.
***
Instead, the report said, [Julie Doolittle] had been hired by Abramoff to work on a fundraiser for the Capital Athletic Foundation that was to be held in March 2003 at the Spy Museum in Washington, D.C. The event ultimately was postponed because of the U.S. military invasion of Iraq, and it never was rescheduled.

A few months later, in June 2003, the report said, Julie Doolittle inadvertently caught on to the fact that her company’s paycheck came through a client of Abramoff’s.  That happened when she called to inquire about her retainer and was told that the law firm was waiting for “the client” to pay its bill before money could be distributed to her.

Abramoff became incensed when he heard that his staff had revealed that information to Julie Doolittle, according to the report. And when Julie Doolittle told Abramoff’s assistant that she “was not aware that my retainer was dependent on the payment from a client,” she was assured by Abramoff that “it is absolutely not dependent.” (SacBee 6/23/06)

I think there’s not a whole lot of work to tracing this whole thing back to Delay’s K Street Project.  The Republicans and the Lobbyists of K Street are so intertwined,you can’t see where one starts and the other stops.  Doolittle is surprised when she gets investigated, but she knows who she works for.  The company you keep says a lot about your character.

So, best case for Mrs. Doolittle, she’s not so bright.  Congrats Julie.

Arnold Schwarzenegger

Calitics Poll HQ before Primary

Welcome to the Poll Headquarters.  We’ll be posting notable Polls and Endorsements here. The Governor related polls will be in the main, congress, down-ballot, and other polls will be in the extended.

California Governor Polls

Primary Polls: Angelides v Westly and Hypothetical Matchups

Field California Governor Polls

The dates are the date of release to the public, not the dates of survey. The Field Poll is the gold standard of California political polls. I always trust the Field Poll when it’s in conflict with another. The margin of error for all voters is 3.8%. 4.5% for the Democrats only race.









































































































































Poll/Candidate June 2 2006April 14 2006 March 2 2006 November 3 2005 September 7 2005 June 29 2005 February 25 2005
Angelides versus Westly
Westly 35 37 18 26 22 28 11
Angelides 34 26 26 37 32 37 15
Other 5 3 2 20
Don’t Know 26 34 54 37 46 35 54
Angelides versus Schwarzenegger
Angelides 39 40 39 47 43 46 35
Schwarzenegger 46 44 39 41 40 42 52
Undecided 11 13 20 12 17 12 13
Westly versus Schwarzenegger
Westly 42 43 41 46 42 44 33
Schwarzenegger 44 43 37 40 39 40 52
Undecided 11 11 21 14 19 16 15

Rasmussen California Governor Polls

The dates are the date of release to the public, not the dates of survey. The Rasmussen poll is a computer polling operation. Its results are a little more questionable and can sometimes be skewed towards the political right. Also, Rasmussen did head to heads for Angelides and Westly, but only releases that data to paying subscribers.


































































































Poll/Candidate May 24 2006 April 17 2006 March 23 2006 Feb. 13 2006 Jan. 24 2006 Dec. 15 2005
Angelides versus Schwarzenegger
Angelides 45 36 45 40 39 44
Schwarzenegger 45 49 44 41 41 40
Undecided/other 10 15 11 19 20 16
MoE ±4.5 ±4.5 ±4.5 ±4.5 ±4.5 ±4.5
Westly versus Schwarzenegger
Westly 46 40 45 34 40 46
Schwarzenegger 44 48 44 39 39 39
Undecided/other 10 12 11 27 21 15
MoE ±4.5 ±4.5 ±4.5 ±4.5 ±4.5 ±4.5

Other random polls

The LA Times poll and the PPIC poll also have polls on down ballot races. I didn’t summarize them here, but click the links for the full PDFs. Please let me know if you know of any more.






























































































































































Poll/Candidate Datamar 6/5/06S-USA 6/2/06 LA Times 5/26/06 S-USA 5/25/06 PPIC May ’06 S-USA 5/8/06 PPIC March ’06 LA-Times 4/28/06
Angelides Versus Westly
Angelides 42.9 41 37 44 35 41 22 20
Westly 41.3 37 34 32 32 31 23 33
Other n/a1 1 17 n/a 17 2
Undecided 15.8 28 7 33 11 55 45
MoE ±3.94 ±5 ±4.8 ±5 ±4.9 ±5 ±5
Angelides versus Schwarzenegger
Angelides 34.3 38 29 43
Schwarzenegger 53.5 38 41 43
Other 1
Undecided 12.2 24 30 13
MoE ±2.46±2 ±2 ±5
Westly versus Schwarzenegger
Westly 50.7 36 39 48
Schwarzenegger 38.0 36 31 39
Other 1
Undecided 11.3 28 30 12
MoE ±2.46 ±2 ±2 ±2

S-USA Schwarzenegger Approval

The actual Survey USA site has the ability to do demographic breakdowns.

DATE05/10/0506/13/0507/11/0508/15/0509/16/0509/19/0510/03/0510/17/0511/14/0512/12/0501/16/0602/13/0603/13/0604/10/0605/15/0606/12/06
MoE± 4%± 4%± 4%± 4%± 4%± 3.9%± 2.9%± 3.9%± 3.9%± 3.9%± 4%± 3.9%± 4%± 4%± 4%± 4%
ALLALLALLALLALLALLALLALLALLALLALLALLALLALLALLALL
Approve40%35%36%37%36%32%34%33%35%34%34%32%36%35%36%39%
Disapprove56%60%61%56%59%65%59%65%63%63%62%65%61%61%61%58%
Not Sure4%5%3%6%5%3%8%2%2%4%4%3%3%4%4%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%


CA-50 Special election Polls (Bilbray, Busby)

I collected as many as I could find. The April SUSA is before the first election so it includes several other candidates. If you know of any more, please pass them along to me. The value of the polls varies wildly, so take them all with a grain of salt.
















































Poll/Candidate SurveyUSA 6/02/06 LRP 5/18/06 SurveyUSA 5/10/06 Moore Info 5/4/06 SurveyUSA 4/10/06
Bilbray 47 40 45 37 13
Busby 45 47 45 43 47
Other 9 1 9 7 38
Undecided 0 12 1 13 2
MoE ±4.7 ±4.9 ±4.8 ±5 ±4.5

Arnold Schwarzenegger

CA-Gov: It’s a dead heat

Zogby has the two candidates in a dead heat:

Phil Angelides 44.6%
Arnold Schwarzenegger 44.5%
MoE: +/- 2.9%

In previous polls, Angelides had a lead that was slightly less than 5%.  I’m not totally sure what to make of this poll.  Angelides was trailing Arnold in several polls just before the election, but as I said before not this one.  It’s only done every three months, so a lot can change.  Considering the negative primary that Angelides just got out of, I think this is a pretty good poll.  He still has plenty of time to go at Arnold.

Los Angeles Area

CA-42, CA-44: Miller and Calvert made some sweet real estate deals

The Washington Post did an investigation into some of the real estate sales made by members of Congress.  The targets in this article are Ken Calvert (R, CA-44), Gary Miller(R, CA-42) and Denny Hastert.  Calvert first:

Last year, Calvert, the California Republican congressman, and a business partner bought a four-acre parcel near the March Air Reserve Base in Riverside County, Calif., for $550,000. He then secured $8 million for a planned freeway interchange 16 miles away, an additional $1.5 million to support commercial development around the airfield, and sold the property less than a year later for almost $1 million.(WaPo 6/22)

Wow, that’s a pretty sweet deal.  He makes almost a half of a million buck just for slipping in a few earmarks.  Miller’s story is pretty much the same:

Miller, the other California Republican, helped secure $1.28 million in last year’s highway bill for street improvements near a planned residential and commercial development in Diamond Bar, Calif., that he co-owns with a top campaign contributor.

Ho-hum, Ho-hum, what’s a few million amongst great friends, especially when it’s taxpayer money.  Good Work guys, you are the best taxpayer-fleecing Reps since, well, uh, Duke Cunningham.

Bay Area

Newsom’s Health Care Program: Who Pays and Who Benefits?

The San Francisco Health Access Plan has gotten a bunch of national attention in the last few days.  Newsom doesn’t support the current plan that Ammiano proposed, but he supports the concept in general.  I suppose he wants to work on the business aspect of it.

One day after announcing the proposal that would make San Francisco the first U.S. city to provide access to taxpayer-subsidized health care for every uninsured resident, Newsom pitched his ambitious plan during local radio and newspaper interviews — knowing that the question of who should be required to pay for it is already generating controversy. … The proposal would cost about $200 million annually, with more the half the money coming from city funds, about $38 million from local business contributions, and the remainder from monthly premiums paid by plan participants.

***
Newsom, who owned numerous local businesses before taking office in 2004, said he provided health insurance to his employees. He said he does not support Ammiano’s legislation in its current form, but he nonetheless challenged the business community — known for being strong mayoral allies — and employers who do not provide health care to “step up.”
***
“We have been at every public hearing saying one thing: affordability, affordability, affordability,” Kevin Westlye, executive director of the Golden Gate Restaurant Association, told the supervisors. “It needs to be affordable. The way it’s constructed, it’s not.” Westlye sat on a 41-member task force created by Newsom to study and develop the health care plan. (SF Chron 6/22/06)

So, I suppose that this is going to come down to a “progressives vs. businesses” thing like most other big efforts in SF.  However, with the Mayor’s support, I imagine that this one will happen.  Funding seems in flux, and the exact parameters of the deal are a little sketchy right now.  But, as I understand it, SF is essentially getting into the HMO business.  They will provide orimary care providers and allow preventive care.  However, the program participants will have no benefits outside of the county. 

I think this is a great idea, at least as an experiment.  We spend so much money on ER care that is essentially unnecessary.  There is a reason that the U.S. gets the least value of our health care dollar of any major industrial nation.  After the fact that we spend $0.35 of each dollar on the insurance complex, there is the fact that we spend way too much on emergency care.  It’s expensive and many of the cases could be handled a lot more efficiently in regular clinics.

So, there are details to work out, but I applaud SF for this grand gesture.  We’ll see how it works in the next few years.

Los Angeles Area

LA: Villaraigosa gets school takeover deal

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From SFGate Politics Blog:

Villaraigosa, a former speaker of the state Assembly and a likely candidate for governor in the near future, won compromise on proposed legislation that would give new autonomy to the superintendent of the Los Angeles United Schools District from the school board but at the same time, give the mayor a central role in choosing the superintendent.

While some have criticized the move as a power grab intent on enhancing the mayor’s standing on education issues, Villaraigosa told reporters that he wanted the chance to help improve test scores in poor performing schools.

***

But the deal also makes the mayor accountable for classroom performance of the 730,000-student system, which now has a dropout rate close to 50 percent. Villaraigosa, who came from a hardscrabble neighborhood of Los Angeles, said students in the low-performing schools deserved better. (SFGate Politcs Blog 6/21/06)

I’ve not yet seen the full agreement, but I think it’s a big risk that Villaraigosa is taking.  LA Schools are not traditionally the building grounds for a great political career.  But, if he is able to have any measure of success it will be a boon to his political future.

Arnold Schwarzenegger

CA-Gov: S-USA Approval Numbers

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S-USA approval numbers are our (Thanks Julia) Arnold’s numbers are again slightly up.  The meme in the GOP circles is that he has the big mo’ (and that he’s a fun guy).  Well, don’t believe the hype, it’s hardly a dramatic shift for him.

All Adults
Approve 39% (36)
Disapprove 58% (61)
Not Sure 3% (4)

The SUSA Poll provides extensive free crosstabs, for which Juliahas done an excellent job pointing out some important ones.  Most importantly, it’s interesting to note that almost all of his gains are amongst Republicans, where his approval went from 57 to 75.  That’s a huge shift, but it doesn’t really tell us much about the race itself.  The Republicans of the state were likely going to vote for him whether or not they said they approved.  Independents ticked up a bit (42 from 38) and Dems went down (18 from 22).  I don’t think anything in this poll has changed my mind that the election will end up being a close race.

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University Enrollment Diversity Up

Peter Schrag, personally my favorite SacBee columnist, has some good news on higher education in the state, particularly in respect to the “other” university system – CSU.

The belief [that there is an underrepresentation of blacks, Latinos, and Native Americans in higher education] is at least partially correct, but it conceals a positive set of facts that demand a lot more attention and rarely get it. Of all of CSU’s 400,000 students, nearly 30 percent are first-generation college students, meaning neither of their parents went to college. On campuses such as CSU Dominguez Hills and Los Angeles State, it’s probably more than 60 percent. And it’s almost certainly higher in the community colleges. That deserves cheers as much as it does apologies or dire warnings.(SacBee 6/21/06)

This is an accomplishment, no matter how you slice it.  Black enrollment in state colleges is approaching the same rate as high school enrollment.  Latinos are lagging behind their high school enrollment, but there is evidence that this too is changing.  However, diversity at the big UC research institutions is still lagging behind.  Schrag isn’t necessarily pointing fingers, at either the institutions or Prop 209.

Berkeley historian David Hollinger provides insight in an article in the forthcoming July/August issue of California Monthly, Berkeley’s alumni magazine. Where there’s institutional blame for underrepresentation of minorities, he says, it largely belongs elsewhere — to the schools, to the legacy of Jim Crow, to poverty and national policy generally.

He also asks a familiar question: If affirmative action, now banned by Proposition 209, were so crucial to minority progress, how did Asians, historically victims of intense discrimination, come to dominate Berkeley’s enrollment? Never beneficiaries of affirmative action, Asians composed 48 percent of the class that entered Berkeley last fall — a number far out of proportion to their numbers in the general population.

Which raises another issue that becomes more obvious every day in the new California: Immigration from Latin America and Asia and high rates of intermarriage blur the old black-white dichotomies almost beyond recognition.

Race has become a more subtle concept.  What is not subtle is the effect of poverty on educational attainment.  The mitigation of these effects is accomplished by state and federal programs such as school lunches, Head Start, (Prop 82 would have fit really well in this list, wouldn’t it).  The problem isn’t necessarily the universities, but rather the fact that applications to the universities are tilted in one way or another.  We need to work harder to encourage development at younger ages so that students come into high school and college in a better postion to succeed.