All posts by Brian Leubitz

Speier internal polling

( – promoted by SFBrianCL)

Good and bad news for Jackie Speier.  Her own internal polling has very similar results as the Field Poll released last week. 

If that wasn’t bad enough, her own pollster had almost identical numbers, giving Garamendi a 32 percent to 22 percent lead.(SFGate Blog 4/24/06)

Garamendi has been on the last seven statewide ballots (correct me if I’m wrong), so the fact that he is better known should be no surprise.  At this point, that is what polling is all about in the LT. Gov race.  We aren’t talking about a position that most Californians are considering that much.  Most Cal Dems couldn’t tell you any difference between the three candidates.  Also, Speier is leading the money race with over $2 million in the bank.

And finally, Figueroa and Speier are poaching on each other’s power base in the Bay Area.  That won’t change, but it is something that should be considered.

So instead of just accepting the lnumbers, Speier’s pollster went on to try to forecast what the numbers would be after she spent the money to have a statewide discussion with the electorate of the Democratic primary for the next 6 weeks.  He did this by giving descriptions of what the candidates want you to think about them.  Even though this was an internal poll, the descriptions of Speier’s opponents were pretty positive.  These results were better:

When the descriptions were read and the numbers recounted, Speier moved ahead of Garamendi in the Moore poll, 41 percent to 36 percent.

Well, this may be true, but at this point, there is only 6 weeks before the election.  I personally really like Jackie, most because of her potential, but she needs to do some work on communicating with the voters…and fast.
 

Dan Walters on SB 1437

Sheila Kuehl’s SB 1437 adds the LGBT community to a laundry list of other minorities in an education code section that bans treating these minorities adversely in the curriculum.  It bans this adverse treatment in textbooks and day-to-day teaching.  The list includes race, gender, national origin amongst others.  Finally, it also includes “role and contribution” of the LGBT community along with other minorities in social sciences classes.

Dan Walters brings up a counter point: when we legislate on these matters we put ourselves on a slippery slope to, well, Holocaust denial?

To  date the list singled out for mandatory attention are “men and women, black Americans, American Indians, Mexicans, Asians, Pacific Island people and other ethnic groups” while another section of state school law bans instruction “which reflects adversely upon persons because of their race, sex, color, creed, handicap, national origin or ancestry” and still another prohibits textbooks or other materials “reflecting adversely” on the same grounds.

Essentially, therefore, students must be told about certain groups, but cannot receive any instruction deemed to be negative, which is why, for instance, the Hindu American Foundation is now suing the state to block printing and distribution of new sixth-grade textbooks that are, the group maintains, demeaning to Hindus. Specifically, the foundation doesn’t like the textbooks’ depiction of women’s historically inferior status, the treatment of “untouchables” in the Indian caste system and the theory that Aryan migration played a major role in Indian cultural development.

  Implicitly, the suit is telling state officials that the textbooks must be altered to reflect the Hindu American Foundation’s version of the ethnic group’s history – regardless of what that history may truly be. (SacBee 4/24/06)

Ok, I see how this could actually lead to holocaust denial.  It is a poorly drafted bill in that there is no exception for teaching factual history events.  Does teaching about the Holocaust “reflect adversely” against Germans?  Well, obviously, the answer has to be yes.

So, how do we separate the theory and the practice? Is there some arbitrary standard?  Is it the same as a libel standard in court?  I think the resolution to the Hindu suit will go a long way in determining what these laws really mean.  I think ultimately, there is a place where we are teaching historical fact while still striving to promote a balanced curriculum.

Walters also criticizes the “role and contribution” legislation, but I think this represents at least part of the compromise.  We need to teach history, but if we teach our students not only about the Holocaust, but also about Germany’s advancements and contribution to society, we help decrease hostile feelings. 

But Walters wants to draw a line and not pass 1437.  I agree with some of his points, but can we really draw that line and exclude the LGBT community simply because they are controversial?:

The Legislature’s dictating cultural propaganda of any kind to be distributed in the classroom is troubling. It’s troubling when the cultural identification is homosexuality, and it’s troubling when – as another legislative bill this year would require – the group singled out for special attention is Italian American.

I think the answer is no.  If we are to retain the other legislation banning “reflecting adversely” with the other groups, we must pass 1437. 

Walters chooses the blunt sword, cutting all the legislation. (“It’s a slippery slope, down which California probably has slid too far already.”)  However, perhaps we should do some serious thinking about how we can help reduce discrimination in adults through our education system.  Reform is possible, but ignoring the issue just abdicates an opportunity to improve the state.

Some bizarre behavior on the campaign trail

To  me,  this  whole  stunt  seems  to  be  bush-league.  A  wheel?  A  broken  wheel  as  a  symbol of  a  campaign?  Really?

Angelides’ campaign built a big lottery wheel as a prop, dubbing it “Steve Westly’s Big Spin,” complete with colored pie spaces describing woeful outcomes for schools. Midway through the stunt, the wheel broke as a “contestant” gave it a spin.

And here’s how ridiculous the campaign season has become: After the “Big Spin” stunt, staffers for both Angelides and Westly were quick to provide their own spin on the malfunction.

Westly political adviser Garry South, watching the event from just outside the room, immediately said, “A broken wheel is emblematic of the Angelides campaign.”

But Angelides campaign staffers claimed they had designed the wheel so it would spin out of control. “Big Spin” host Steve Hopcraft, a spokesman for the California Federation of Teachers, which has endorsed Angelides, suggested that the broken wheel was like Westly’s plan because “you get every single bad result on the board.”(SacBee  4/24/06) 

Look,  the  publicity  stunts  are  cute,  but  what  the  voters  want  is a  real  plan  to  fully  fund  education  without  resorting  to strange  budget  activities.

The AG Race: David and Goliath?

Everybody knows Jerry Brown, well 80% anyway (according to the Field Poll), but what about Rocky Delgadillo?  Well, according to the same Field Poll, he’s sitting at 16%/18% Favorables to unfavorables.  That leaves a very large 66% No opinion rating.  That is quite high (although not as high as GOP candidate Poochigian’s shockingly high 83%), leaving him a lot of ground to make up.

But Delgadillo relishes this role:

With just five years in public office, the little-known lawyer is taking on one of the state’s best-known politicians, Oakland Mayor and former California Gov. Jerry Brown. “I’ve said from the beginning I’m an underdog,” Delgadillo said. “Californians are looking for somebody who is not afraid to take on the big fight.”

Barely known outside his hometown, the 45-year-old father of two is running far behind Brown in the contest for the Democratic nomination to face Fresno Republican Sen. Charles Poochigian in November.  Brown was leading Delgadillo by more than 3-1 in a Field Poll released Wednesday. Ace Smith, Brown’s campaign consultant, said Brown has $4.4 million in his campaign account, while Delgadillo’s spokesman said his campaign has $3 million.(SacBee 4/23/06)

Delgadillo is well known in LA, but it’s going to be hard for him to challenge Brown in the Dem heavy Bay area.  Brown is still quite popular up here and has a large war chest to lean on.  With only about 6 weeks to go before the primary, Delgadillo has his work cut out for him.  However, Delgadillo has shown his ability to work from behind in the LA City attorney race, so it would be unwise to count him out.

Is Angelides’ White Knight Riding to the Rescue?

Phil Angelides doesn’t have the kind of money that Westly has, but he has some good friends.  Some very good friends (wink-wink*). 

Sacramento developer Angelo K. Tsakopoulos and his daughter are spending $5 million in a political rescue effort for their longtime friend, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Phil Angelides, whose own campaign is short on money for television ads.

According to campaign records filed Friday, Tsakopoulos gave $3.75 million and Eleni Tsakopoulos-Kounalakis added $1.25 million Thursday toward an independent expenditure committee that will fund at least two weeks worth of 30-second advertisements promoting Angelides’ endorsements from firefighters and law enforcement.(SacBee 4/22/06)

Angelides has been dark or near-dark in the ad market for quite a while.  These ads are critically important for him to stay afloat until he can start spending more money.  Tsakopoulos has been helping Phil since his development days in Sacramento.  Depending on how people view these ads, as “special interests” or just firefighters giving their opinions, will determine whether this helps or hurts.

The Unions Hedging their bets in the Dem. Gov. Primary

I was cruising the Internet this morning, and came upon this story:

The United Farm Workers (UFW) today endorsed California State Treasurer Phil Angelides’ campaign for Governor. Angelides is endorsed by UFW co-founder Dolores Huerta and more than forty labor organizations representing over 2.5 million working Californians.

“We believe you will be a Governor who will strongly represent the interests of farm workers and all the people of California,” UFW President Arturo Rodriguez wrote in a letter to Angelides. “You have demonstrated a strong and consistent commitment to fairly remedying our nation’s broken immigration system. You have shown your firm commitment to the right of farm workers to improve their lives and the lives of their families through self-organization and union contracts. Your experience in the public and private sectors has prepared you for leadership of the nation’s largest state.” (California Chronicle 4/21/06)

So, another labor endorsement for Angelides.  He has a lot of them, as well as a lot of endorsements in general. I figure it’s a good thing that will help him pick up a portion of the Latino vote.  But, imagine my surprise when I see this:

Controller Steve Westly’s campaign for governor today announced it has won the endorsement of the United Farm Workers of America (UFW). The organization has decided upon a dual endorsement in the Democratic primary race.

“We believe you will be a Governor who will strongly represent the interests of farm workers and all the people of California. You have [also] demonstrated a strong and consistent commitment to fairly remedying our nation’s broken immigration system,” wrote Arturo Rodriguez, President of the UFW, in a letter announcing the organization’s endorsement of Westly’s candidacy. “You have shown your firm commitment to the right of farm workers to improve their lives and the lives of their families through self-organization and union contracts.” (California Chronicle 4/21/06)

Huh? Yes, this is from the same news source, same day, same evertyhing.  First of all, it appeared that these “news stories” were pulled almost entirely from a press release. It is interesting that the two letters are almost exactly the same.  But, I’m thinking are both of these stories were correct?  The Angelides story didn’t say anything about a dual endorsement.  Well, it turns out that both of these stories were correct.  Dan Weintraub noticed this yesterday:

In another in a string of dual endorsements, the United Farm Workers are backing both Angelides and Westly for governor. This has got to be grating on Angelides, who thinks of himself as the labor candidate and has been working for years to secure union backing for his eventual run for governor.

I think the two press releases (likely both released by the UFW) are a bit misleading.  But, both candidates get some sense of a win.  But, ultimately, this is a bigger win for Westly.  Angelides got the initial few labor endorsements by himself, but now the unions (and other orginizations such as the Sierra Club) are beginning to hedge their bets.  For Westly, just blocking Angelides getting the entirety of the union infrastructure is a positive.

I think there’s two forces at work here.  First, you have your traditional self-preservation.  The unions want to be on the side of the winner, or more accurately, don’t want to be on the side of the loser.

So, the second point, which I suppose is almost inseparable from the first point, is that the unions appear to really favor Angelides.  He has been working for the union vote for a long time.  Issuing the joint endorsement allows them to feel secure in endorsing Angelides.  However, this has got to be a point of consternation for the Angelides campaign.  It’s a sign that a lot of power brokers in the Democratic party are feeling Westly’s momentum.  Angelides really needs a big win of some sort at this point.  I’m not sure what that would be, but he needs to slow Westly’s momentum, pronto.

Down-Ballot Race Field Poll

The Field Poll for the down ballot races came out today.  The poll reviewed favorables/unfavorables of the candidates as well as primary comparisons.

Among the winners from this poll: Jerry Brown and Bill Lockyer.  Both have the advantage of being well known.  At this point, most voters don’t know enough to have formed much of an opinion.  We’ll get a lot more information on how Dem candidates are doing once the primary season is over.

A good SacBee graphic reviewing the data from this poll on the flip…

Net Neutrality

(I know, not strictly Califorinia politics, but please consider this. – promoted by SFBrianCL)

Congress is currently considering a bill allowing ISPs to favor certain uses of bandwidth over others.  In otherwords, the ISPs want to end Net Neutrality.
Net Neutrality is vital to a free Internet and the growing use of the Internet as a political organizing tool.  Please go to Moveon.org’s Net Neutrality Site, and consider signing their petition.

Budgeting 101

The Chronicle published an interesting article about both candidates’ budget plans.  Basically, it summarizes their speeches, focusing on the spending and revenue priorities.

Here’s the summary table:

Comparing the proposals

Treasurer Phil Angelides and Controller Steve Westly, the Democratic candidates for governor, have offered a variety of spending and revenue proposals for the state, which has an estimated budget shortfall of $4 billion. Among their ideas:

SPENDING

Angelides:

— Repay the education budget: $3.2 billion

— Roll back college tuition increases: $600 million

— Expand Cal-Grant scholarships: $185 million

— New state math, science and engineering scholarships: $50 million

— Medical insurance for all California children: $250 million

Westly:

— Repay the education budget: $3.2 billion

— Eliminate most community college fees: $150 million

— Medical insurance for all California children: $250 million

REVENUE AND SAVINGS

Angelides:

— Tax boost for richest Californians: $2.2 billion

— Increase the corporate tax: $500 million

— Close tax loopholes: $786 million

— Create endowment from state property sales: $300 million

— Improve tax collections: $200 million

— Efficiency in government savings: $250 million

Westly:

— Lower prize money in state lottery: $126 million

— Cut government waste through increased audits: $150 million

— Improve state purchasing process: $400 million

— Collect state sales tax on Internet purchases: $40 million

— Increase collection of bad debts: $150 million

— Expand programs focusing on at tax cheats: $850 million

Source: Westly and Angelides campaigns and speeches

The Merry-Go-Round that’s Not so merry

Gov. Schwarzenegger appointed a new acting secretary of the Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation, two months after appointing the previous acting secretary.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger on Thursday named James Tilton as acting secretary of the Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation, replacing Jeanne Woodford.

Tilton, a former budget expert at the department, currently works as a program budget manager, focusing on the corrections budget, in Schwarzenegger’s Department of Finance.
***
Before naming Tilton, Schwarzenegger on Thursday confirmed that Woodford had stepped down.
***
Rod Hickman, the governor’s first corrections secretary abruptly resigned in February.(SacBee 4/20/06)

This is a mess, and once again, Arnold has failed to provide the leadership necessary to correct the situation.  He is content to stand on the sidelines and criticize:

The Republican governor said the prison system is “in kind of a disastrous situation” and has been “for a long time.” Fixing the prison system, Schwarzenegger said, is a “slow process.”

“Kind of”…uh, yeah.  It’s kind of in a bad situation.  A federal judge is about to take over the entire ($1Billion) state prison healthcare system.  The system is about to collapse due to the exploding three strikes population.  Yet all the governor can do is state the obvious and say it’s hard?

How about rolling up your sleeves and getting to work on that disaster?  Take responsibility for seeing that the situation is resolved.  But the Governor has failed to accept any of the challenges and has failed to provide the leadership that we need in Sacramento to get a workable prison system.

Why can the governor not challenge his own party?  The criminilization of our youth has got to stop.  We serve nobody by locking up large chunks of our young adult male populations.  We need to rework 3 strikes, we need to rework sentencing, and improve treatment and rehabilitation programs so that we can clear out the prison system.  We need to get these prisoners back to a situation that they can contribute to our state.

So, Arnold, instead of pushing this merry-go-round around and around, why can’t you consider stopping this and working for a stable, permanent solution.

A little digression on the flip…

And a digression:
Hey…just a question…why can the state provide healthcare for inmates and not law-abiding citizens?  Oh yeah, b/c the state has to under the constitution.  When we have to, we can.  Health care needs to be that pressing of an issue.  The state needs health care for the masses, no matter how we do it.