Tag Archives: Francine Busby

CA-50 latest San Diego democratic club endorsement tally: Busby 4, Emblem 3, no endorsement 4


The Progressive Democrats of America (PDA) Metro San Diego Chapter voted Monday evening to endorse Tracy Emblem for the 50th Congressional District race.

In a very transparent voting process where the member’s ballots were collected, counted and verified in front of all present, the final tally was 19 votes for Emblem, 7 votes for Busby and 2 voters chose to abstain. This brings Emblem’s local Democratic club endorsement tally up to three, which has her closing in on Francine Busby, her competitor for incumbent Republican Brian Bilbray‘s seat. The other local clubs endorsing Emblem include: North County Women’s Democratic Club and Latino American Democratic Club.

Four local clubs have endorsed Busby thus far: Chicano Democratic Association, San Diego Democratic Club, San Diego County Young Democrats, and Rancho Santa Fe Democratic Club.

PDA is the second progressive organization to endorse Emblem this week. The Progressive Push PAC endorsed Emblem on Saturday. Luis A. Cuevas, the National Director, stated on Emblem’s Facebook page that he was proud to endorse “the real progressive in California’s 50th Congressional District race”.

Additionally, Emblem has the formal endorsement of four local labor unions, while Busby has the endorsement of a national women’s political caucus.

However, four San Diego Democratic clubs have withheld endorsements for this seat: Mesa Democratic Club, Lake San Marcos Democratic Club, Black Mountain Democratic Club, and the Democratic Club of Oceanside/Carlsbad. These clubs are withholding a formal endorsement until after the June 8, 2010 primary so that voters in their communities can decide upon the most viable candidate. After the primary, these clubs will endorse the winner.

Why a Democrat can win California 50th Congressional District race in 2010 (Part 2)

The Republicans in the 50th Congressional District are starting to feel comfortable about having a win in the bag in 2010. CQ Politics just released an assessment that Bilbray’s GOP seat in North County’s 50th is secure. Clearly the author is unaware of the district’s history and political leanings before 2002 covered in Part 1 of this series and plays down the systematic closing of the point gap between Democrats and Republicans since the Republican’s gerrymandered win in 2002.  Part 2 of this series will explore why a Democratic candidate hasn’t yet won the District and what they need to do to wrestle control back from the Republicans.

Why hasn’t a Democrat won the district back yet?

The following list encompasses some personal observations as well as election analysis in a 2006 poll commissioned in California’s 50th Congressional District by Courage Campaign, a non-partisan, Progressive 527 based in Los Angeles, and MyDD, a Progressive blog devoted to analysis and commentary on political campaigns and infrastructure, to determine why the national Democratic message failed to give Democrat Francine Busby the seat formerly occupied by convicted felon, Republican Randy “Duke” Cunningham. Busby also lost to Republican Brian Bilbray in the 2006 regular election, having probably been her last best chance to win this district.

1. Voter Turnout – A winning Democratic candidate needs high Independent and Decline to State voter turnout, which combined currently makes up at least 28% of registered voters in North County, to close the point gap with the Republican incumbent. Busby has been repeatedly unsuccessful in mobilizing this demographic and securing their vote. Voter appeal beyond Democratic base voters will be instrumental.

2. Inland Voter Turnout – A winning Democratic candidate needs to mobilize and secure the vote of residents in the inland part of the district. The highest density of registered voters are inland and the majority of these voters are working class families. Thus far, the previous Democratic candidates have been coastal candidates, such as Busby and Nick Leibham, which did not resonate with inland voters. However, one candidate Progressive Democrat Tracy Emblem, a resident of Escondido since 1964 with working class roots and strong support from Labor Unions will appeal to this key inland working class demographic.

3. Issue-based Campaign – A winning Democratic candidate needs to clearly draw a distinction between themselves and the Republican incumbent by running a strong, issue-based campaign. Most voters in 2006 had no concrete idea where Busby stood on important issues, so her image in the mind of the voter was poorly defined. The Republicans, on the other hand, led the discussion and framed any debate around issues they knew would resonate in their favor. Even in the current jockeying for the 2010 primary election, until a month ago Emblem was the only candidate who clearly outlined her positions on important issues on her campaign website. Busby only recently added any substantive issue-based information to her campaign website after Emblem pointed out  the omission at a Mesa Democratic Club meeting in November.

4. Accountability – A winning Democratic candidate has to hold the current administration accountable for problems that have occurred under its watch both at home and abroad. This is as relevant now as it was during the Bush administration, perhaps more-so. President Obama has high disapproval ratings and a successful candidate needs to distinguish clearly how they will provide viable solutions to the problems the Obama administration and Democratic legislators have been unable to resolve. San Diego News Network noted that Busby is still uncritically toting President Obama’s change message as if she’s his sidekick. Emblem, on the other hand, has demonstrated that she can hold the President accountable for unsuccessful policy decisions, like Afghanistan.

What’s the bottom line?

The Democratic party cannot continue to do the same old same old in the 50th district if they have any hope of unseating incumbent Republican Bilbray. With a focus on voter turnout, an issues-based campaign focusing on issues that resonate with Independent, Decline to State and Inland voters, and lastly courage to hold the current administration accountable for policy missteps, Democrats can pull off this supposed Hail Mary pass win.

CA-50: Sheriffs Raid Busby Fundraiser

An exceedingly strange story out of the San Diego area.

The San Diego Union-Tribune reports that a fundraiser for Francine Busby, who previously ran for the deeply-Republican Fiftieth District (editor’s note: it’s not that deeply Republican, Obama won here 51-47) and came close to winning in the 2006 special election and subsequent regular election, was raided by sheriffs after an unnamed neighbor made a noise complaint. Busby now calls it a “phony” noise complaint, and the article says that multiple neighbors said there was no great noise at all.

Here’s the twist: The fundraiser was hosted by a lesbian couple, and shortly before the sheriffs came a particular neighbor had shouted anti-gay slurs at the assembled crowd. “It was a quiet home reception, disrupted by a vulgar person shouting obscenities from behind the bushes,” Busby says.

As one neighbor told the paper: “We didn’t hear anything until the sheriff came, with eight patrol cars and a helicopter.”

The sheriff’s department claims that somebody kicked an officer. By the time it was over, multiple people were pepper-sprayed, one of the hostesses was arrested, and the whole neighborhood got to see quite a scene.

One of the officers defended the department’s conduct — turning the blame on the candidate: “The place got out of hand. If Francine Busby was there, why not take a leadership role, step up, and nip this thing in the bud?”

There’s more detail at this Daily Kos diary from arodb, who was there.  I like the part where the police department blames Francine Busby for their own failure to recognize that no noise violation was taking place inside the fundraiser.

I’m trying to get some more information from the campaign, will bring it when I have it.

UPDATE: TPMDC interviews Francine Busby about this incident, and basically, she singles out the homophobic heckler for creating the noise that brought the cops to the scene:

“You could hear his voice very clearly, it was loud. But as far as the actual words, I didn’t hear them,” Busby explained. “I heard my name, and obviously derogatory words. Other people heard profanity, and somebody heard something about gays, as well.” It should be noted that the event was hosted by a lesbian couple.

“The deputies were telling people that they were taking statements from, that the call came in about noise from a Democratic rally, or Democratic demonstration,” said Busby. In fact, she said, she had last spoken at about 8:30 p.m., and the police arrived an hour later when most of the attendees had left. “It was a nuisance-noise call, because there was no noise, and the fact that it was described as a Democratic rally or demonstration indicates to me that this person was calling for his own political motives.”

The LA Times reports that the San Diego County Sheriff’s Department will open an investigation into the incident, particularly the use of pepper spray.

Campaign Update: CA-10, CA-03, CA-47, CA-50

The Internet moves at, well, Internet speed, so parts of my House race roundup were already out of date or incomplete by the time I published it.  So here’s an update on a few races.

• CA-10: John Garamendi announced a significant series of national labor endorsements for the upcoming CA-10 race, despite Mark DeSaulnier having locked up the Contra Costa County Central Labor Committee endorsement and the local Building Trades (which cover almost 100 local unions) and chairing the Senate Labor Committee.  They include:

AFSCME: American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees

CNA: California Nurses Association

CFT: California Federation of Teachers

UFCW: United Food & Commercial Workers

CSEA: California School Employees Association

Laborers International Union of North America

International Union of Operating Engineers

CWA: Communication Workers of America

Many of those can provide PAC money, resources and support to Garamendi, leveling the playing field in a race where DeSaulnier captured all the early endorsements.

• CA-03: I passed on the rumor about Phil Angelides and CA-03 in my roundup, but local blogger Randy Bayne dismisses that report and notes that Elk Grove City Councilman Gary Davis will likely run, having met with the DCCC and begun the process of putting a team together.  I don’t agree with Bayne that a contested primary (Dr. Amerish Bera has also announced) would impact negatively on the race.  Especially when the candidates have low name ID, a primary can increase their public profile and show them to be a “winner” in front of the district, at the end.  Momentum can build.  Primaries don’t necessarily have to be nasty and debilitating, and I fail to understand why anyone would reject them out of hand.

Incidentally, I never took much stock in the rumor about Angelides, I simply thought it would be a decent line of inquiry, given his name ID, fundraising ability and progressive profile.

CA-47: One potential challenge to a Democratic incumbent I overlooked yesterday was Van Tran’s run against Loretta Sanchez, profiled in Politico.

On the heels of an election marked by a dismal performance among Asian voters, top Republicans are aggressively recruiting California Assemblyman Van Tran, a Vietnamese-American, to challenge Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-Calif.) next year.

If elected, Tran would be the second Vietnamese-American in Congress, after Rep. Anh “Joseph” Cao (R-La.), who won his seat in a 2008 election.

Tran has already been feted at the National Republican Congressional Committee’s March fundraising dinner as a guest of the committee’s recruitment chairman, Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), and he was encouraged to run by House Minority Leader John Boehner and Minority Whip Eric Cantor. He also made a trip to Washington after last November’s election to meet with officials from the NRCC.

Even Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) has assisted in the recruitment process, meeting with Tran and offering support for any potential candidacy. Tran was an outspoken backer of McCain’s 2008 presidential campaign and helped him carry Orange County over Mitt Romney in the Republican presidential primary.

What the story fails to mention is that, not only does Tran not have full support among the Vietnamese community in the district, not only does Loretta Sanchez have experience easily defeating Vietnamese challengers, but Tran didn’t even do that well in his own Assembly race last year, winning over 55% of the vote against Ken Arnold.  If Tran is one of the Republicans’ top recruits, they’re in even bigger trouble than I thought.  Incidentally, Sanchez’ voting record has greatly improved over the past couple years.

• CA-50: I should have cited Francine Busby’s Firedoglake chat from a couple weeks ago.  I don’t think I agree with her on this, though:

I’ve alway said that the Latino voters have to organize register and educate from within their own community. I see more activism and organizing going on than I did before. In fact, I will be attending a meeting on Monday of the reconstituted Latino American Democratic Club in Oceanside. We may have a strong Latina running for a state office who can rally the base. Also, Bilbray is their worst nightmare, so I expect that to motivate them to get out to vote. I reach out to leaders in the community as much as possible to maintain good communications and understanding.

Outreach consists of more than “hopefully they’ll self-organize.”  You need to actually engage the Latino community instead of hoping some other local candidate can do it for you.  Not a good sign.

Campaign Update: CA-50, CA-10

A couple brief updates:

• CA-50: Francine Busby, who has competed in this district a couple times, in 2004 and 2006, never breaking 44%, will announce another run, challenging Rep. Brian Bilbray.  This is an “Obama Republican” district, where Bilbray only beat Nick Leibham by 50-46 in 2008.  And voter registration is trending in our favor.  And Busby is kicking things off by hitting Bilbray over his “Party of No” rejection of President Obama’s policies, which makes sense in a district he carried.

Busby says, “Voters called for change in 2008 when they elected Barack Obama. (Incumbent Congressman) Bilbray didn’t heed the message. He played a reckless, cruel game of politics with the lives of struggling San Diegans when he voted no on Recovery and Reimbursement Act that would bring millions of federal stimulus dollars into our economy.

My sense is that CA-50 is something of a tease of a district, with a Democratic ceiling around 46%, but I think Busby is taking the right line to win, and she does have some name ID, which could help.  Stay tuned.

• CA-10: I hate to even give space to the Adriel Hampton “boomlet,” but after calling for the legalization and taxation of marijuana, today the Congressional candidate is actually promoting and endorsing the right-wing, corporate-funded and Fox News-promoted “tea parties.”  No lie.  You know, this guy is more faddish than a junior-high Jonas Brothers fan.  Anything with a hashtag is good, I guess.  Even if it enables corporate-friendly drowning of government in the bathtub.  What a Web 2.0 genius!

Jerry Sanders gets the Block Blackwater Message

Full disclosure: I work for the Courage Campaign

Local leaders gathered today outside the office of Mayor Jerry Sanders to present him with more than 2,500 signatures to the letter from San Diego Democratic Party Chair Jess Durfee calling for an investigation into Blackwater’s permit process.  There was a somewhat unexpected air of celebration to the event as it was announced yesterday that Mayor Sanders is calling for the city’s Chief Executive Officer to conduct a full review of the Blackwater permit process (of course now we’ll see what comes of it).

The stage was shared by Jess Durfee (who noted he knows a few things about vocational schools courtesy of a Master’s degree in vocational education), Courage Campaign’s Rick Jacobs, Humberto Peraza- district Chief of Staff for Rep. Filner, Francine Busby and Ray Lutz from Citizens’ Oversight Projects.

All the parties involved have been instrumental in the rapid and effective response to this new Blackwater situation.  Remember it’s been barely two weeks since the news originally broke of this new facility, yet here everyone was gathered to mark and celebrate a significant people-powered success story.

Today was a great opportunity to cement in no uncertain terms the coalition to Block Blackwater which has formed rapidly and forced action from the Mayor.  And we’re just getting warmed up.  There have been recent revelations that Blackwater is looking to expand operations at current facilities and open a new training facility in Idaho.  Why? Because they see the writing on the wall.  They know that Iraq isn’t going to last much longer, partly because they’ve behaved so criminally and partly because the war is such a debacle.  They know that their survival depends on diversifying and establishing new roles in a post-Bush/Iraq system.  It’s why they’re looking for a few good hundred million in new investment capital.  It’s because there’s no natural place for them to exist once they can’t get anymore handouts from the Bush Administration and their cronies.

Today was a victory. Tomorrow we’ll likely need another. But we’re developing the methods that win.

Busby for CDP Chair?

So Francine Busby has been working the convention for the past two days passing out literature to announce her campaign for CDP Chair in 2009.  I don’t have a horse in this race, but that also of course means that the other rumored candidates haven’t exactly lit me on fire just yet.  Speaking to San Diego delegates earlier, there was notable support for the idea.  The candidacy at the very least would be a nice break from the traditional Bay/LA power structure.

We’ll try to catch up with her for a few minutes tomorrow and find out what she has to say.

Nick Leibham and Wrong Way Bilbray

Photos by Chris Rothwell – SEOwell.com

So last night I made my way up to Encinitas in the heart of CA-50 for the official launch of Nick Leibham's congressional campaign.  The event managed to fill the Bullpen Bar and Grill, and my best guess after huddling with several guests was that the number was at least 300.  One way or another, the group was bumping up against max capacity.  Among the assembled throng was CA-52 candidate Mike Lumpkin, San Diego City Council candidate Stephen Whitburn, San Diego Drinking Liberally chief Jesse Rubin, and Calitics’ CarlsbadDem.  And of course, Francine Busby to introduce Nick Leibham.

Against the backdrop of New Hampshire primary results running across screens throughout the bar, Leibham talked about the failures both big and small of Brian Bilbray‘s political career.  He pledged to actually live in the district, not in Imperial Beach, or in Virginia, or with his mother.  More seriously and most importantly though, he pledged to really represent the district.  Something that, as far as I and everyone else in the building are concerned, has been sorely lacking for a number of years.

He whipped up the crowd, hitting on many of the core issues that Democrats will rally around this year:  He blasted Bilbray for supporting Bush’s plan in Iraq, for supporting Bush’s destruction of the Constitution, for refusing to fund children’s health care through SCHIP.  He talked about the fundamental failure of the Republican party and the myriad ways in which Brian Bilbray has been complicit in that failure.  Most of all, he helped explain how those Republican failures hurt the 50th district.  And he led the crowd in chants of “Wrong Way Bilbray!” as he listed off just some of the seemingly countless ways Rep. Bilbray has failed to serve this district.

For me, the most exciting part of the evening was the size, diversity, and depth of the crowd.  I spoke with activists from all over the district and throughout San Diego.  We talked about Blackwater’s invasion of Potrero and other San Diego issues, but most of all, we talked about how desperate people are to get a government that better reflects their values.  And for so many of them, it starts in the 50th.  After watching the record Democratic turnout in Iowa and New Hampshire, the energy to seize on this election seems to be everywhere.

It is, of course, a tough district.  Francine Busby ran a spirited campaign last year with support from the DCCC and still ultimately came up short.  But as the Republican party has continued to fight against good policy at every turn and Brian Bilbray has revealed himself to be an extremist even within his own party, dynamics change.  These crowds and this energy really paints an encouraging picture as one more front is opened in the battle to reclaim this country.  Nick Leibham is the rallying point in the 50th, and it sure looks like he’s positioned to be the beneficiary of an incredible amount of support.  We’re in for a real race.

Crossposted to San Diego Politico

Busby Set to Endorse Leibham in CA-50

Got a tip that sometime in the very near future, Francine Busby will be announcing her endorsement of Nick Leibham for the Democratic nomination in the 50th district.  The field has been slowly clearing for a while now, with Michael Wray opting against a run and John Lee Evans running for School Board.  Steve Schechter has also filed FEC paperwork to run in the district, but this endorsement would line up the one major recognizable Democratic face in the district behind Leibham.  Putting to rest any remaining speculation that she might run again, much of the drama is likely over in the primary, leaving now more than a year of Bilbray-hunting.  The district has a Partisan Voter Index of R+5, but Charlie Cook considers the district competitive more than 13 months out, rating it yesterday as Likely Republican in his new Competitive House Race Chart.

Cross posted from San Diego Politico

Thanking the Forlorn Hope

In the first couple centuries of European warfare following the introduction of gunpowder, giant medieval walls met cannons and explosives.  Eventually, the cannons and sappers would blow a gap in the wall.  Then a group of volunteers, called in the British Army “The Forlorn Hope“, would charge the gap.  Those men almost always died, but their sacrifice was necessary to draw the fire of the defenders and force them to expend their ammunition, so the second wave of attackers could get through the breach.  Survivors, if any, were promoted to officer.

The 50-state, 435-district strategy requires that many Democratic candidates serve as a forlorn hope.  These Democratic candidates ran in heavily Republican districts where they had little to no chance to win.  But they forced the Republicans to spend money and resources simply to retain their seats, were there to take advantage of mistakes or scandal, and helped to build and energize infrastructure in those districts. 

While we’re all celebrating the victory of last Tuesday, let us thank the Democrats’ forlorn hope — they probably won this for us.  In California, at least in the races I’ve been following, that means that I want to thank these candidates and all of their campaign staff and volunteers:

  • Charlie Brown, running against John 15% Doolittle in CA-04.
  • David Roth, running against Mary Bono in CA-45
  • Francine Busby, running again in CA-50 against Brian Bilbray
  • Bill Durston, running against Dan Lungren in CA-03
  • Jill Martinez, running against Elton Gallegly in CA-24
  • Roberto Rodriguez, running against Buck McKeon in CA-25

Thanks to all of you.  You made this victory possible.