Tag Archives: Francine Busby

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CA-50 Postmortem Poll

Chris Bowers of MyDD.com who now runs BlogPAC, is working on a survey in conjunction with the Courage Campaign on why Busby lost the CA-50 race.  It promises to be a useful tool for future elections.  However, they are trying to raise $20,000 to fund the survey.  So, if you feel it’s worthwhile, you might want to consider throwing them a few bucks on their donation page. Also, you might be interested in Chris’ first post  announcing this survey.

Finally, for a laugh, check out Wonkette’s post about Bilbray’s kids.  At least Jenna Bush didn’t post pictures of herself violating the law by consuming alchohol before she turned 21.  Briana Bilbray…not so clever.

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CA-50: 18% Gain, Not too shabby

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( – promoted by SFBrianCL)

Francine Busby took the disappointing loss.  However, I think we have no reason to hang our heads in shame.  CA-50 was a seat that was gerrymandered to give the GOP an advantage.  They held a 15% registration advantage, and more importantly outspent us 2 to 1.  The fact is that the NRCC was scared, very scared.  But they won’t be able to pour that kind of money into every seat.  There was low turnout caused by voters who were just angry at their government.  That will show up in the Dem column come November.  And while we may be sick of moral victories, this definitely counts as one.  We are on the right track.  From Chris Bowers at mydd.com:

In 2004, Busby lost the CA-50 by 22.0%. Today, it looks like she will lose by around 4.5%. And that was with the NRCC spending $4.5M on the race. If Republicans want to spin losing 18 points after spending $4.5M of committee money as a good thing, go for it. After all, spin is basically why they spent so much money on this race. By blowing their wad in a solidly Republican district, they wanted to change the media narrative on the election in their favor. It will probably work, given how subservient and generally inaccurate the media tends to be when it comes to Republicans and elections. In reality, for a Republican candidate to pull 49.5% of the vote in a district with 44.5% Republican registration is shocking. Given those numbers, Bilbray probably managed all of 20% of the vote among independents.

No matter what the media says, no Democrat should be mistaken about this result. First, this is a huge, seismic shift in our favor that bodes extremely well for November. If we receive an 18% shift nationwide, we will win the House easily. If Republican candidates are pulling only 20% of the independent vote, the Indycrat realignment is still on.(MyDD 6/7/06)

We did well, but we still have room for improvement.  In future elections, a more refined message will bring us the additional seats that we need.  I think we saw through the Montana Senate Primary (see David Sirota’s opinion on that) that we can have a populist message and succeed.  I look forward to the Congressional midterms; you can’t help but be optimistic.

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Election night party thread

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I’m going through and consolidating election night parties around the state.  If you have any information about other events, post a comment and i’ll try to include it in the main post. I posted a list of a lot more parties on the flip. And for those of you staying at home, Frank of the California Progreess Report (http://www.californiaprogressreport.com/) will be on KPIX-5 digital channel covering the election returns.











Steve Westly

Phil Angelides

Francine Busby

Los Angeles (RSVP Requested):
8:00 pm (when the polls close!)
The Westin Bonaventure Hotel
California Room
404 South Figueroa Street
Los Angeles 90071
San Francisco:
Prime Time Restaraunt @ 8pm
1810 Clement Street
S.F. 94121

 Sacramento
Election Night Party: 8:00pm
Sacramento Sheraton
1230 J St
Sacramento

 Encinitas
8:30 P.M.
D Street Bar & Grill
485 South Coast Hwy 101
Encinitas 92024

Lt. Governor

Liz Figueroa (D)
8 p.m., Vallejo’s Mexican Restaurant
1100 O St., Sacramento
Contact: Alex Reese 510 816 1938

John Garamendi (D)
8 p.m., Sheraton Grand Sacramento,
Tofanelli Room
1230 J St., Sacramento
Contact: Sarah Leonard 515 778 6298.

Jackie Speier (D)
8 p.m., Hotel Vitale
8 Mission St., San Francisco
Contact: Nathan Ballard
415 235 6283

AG

Jerry Brown (D)
6 p.m., Oakland Police Officers Assn.
HQ
555 5th St., Oakland
Contact: Ace Smith 415 516 8373

Rocky Delgadillo (D)
7 p.m., Westin Bonaventure
San Diego Ballroom
404 South Figueroa St., Los Angeles
Contact: Jennifer Wonnacott
916 233 5548

And if you are in SF, The SF Bay Guardian has a good list here

I have a huge list of other parties. If you want to know where a candidate will be this evening, post it in the comments, and I’ll reply.

Arnold Schwarzenegger, Blog Roundup, Economy

California Blog Roundup 6/5/06

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Today’s California Blog Roundup is on the flip. Teasers: Angelides, Westly, Schwarzenegger, Paid-For Pombo, Francine Busby, Winograd v. Harman, new David Dreier blog, CA-42, Prop 82, Jerry Lewis / CA-41, immigration, minimum wage, and the economy.

Endorsements for Tuesday

State-Wide Races Generally

Paid-For Pombo / CA-11

Other Electoral

Propositions

Reform

Immigration

Legislative Action

Miscellany & Economy

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CA-50: One voter at a time

Both candidates are busy fighting for every last possible vote.

At a heavily traveled Encinitas intersection Friday, Bilbray and sign-toting supporters waved at passing cars. Trucks honked. One man pulled up and said jovially: “Hey, I recognize you. You’re the carpetbagger, right?” – a reference to the fact that he moved to his mother’s house in the district last year.
***
Busby focused this week on meeting commuters as they lined up for the Coaster train. When she approached people Thursday at a Carlsbad Village station, about two-thirds, including Republicans, vowed to vote for her.

“I’m on the right, but I’m going to vote for you anyway,” Art Jensen, a fan of conservative talk radio, told her. “At this point, it’s character that counts.”

Some of the old-guard Republicans – the conservatives who had long defined the 50th District – also were waiting to board the train.  “I’m a Republican and you won’t live long enough to see me vote for you,” one man said with a steely stare. (SD U-T 6/4/06)

Why does the old-guard GOP always gotta have a steely stare? We don’t want voters who gotta use the steely stare anyway.  And hey, if Francine can pick up 1 out of 2 GOP voters, she’ll do well.  There’s going to be more than a smidgeon of voter fatigue in the 50th, so let’s make sure that our voters get out and vote tomorrow.  Please do as much as you can to get out the vote.

San Diego

CA-50: Never too many volunteers! Get out and help Francine!

From the DCCC Stakeholder:

Dear Friends and Bloggers,

I wanted to write a quick note of thanks for your engagement in my race — I’ve seen great posts sorting out fact from fiction on all the desperate Republican attacks, and just as importantly we’ve seen a huge surge in volunteers over the past few days thanks to all of you as well as the DCCC, DNC, Louise Slaughter and Jane Harman. Thanks from the bottom of my heart.

However! We’ve got 300 volunteers lined up right now, and to give it everything we’ve got on Monday and Tuesday we need 400. I hate to ask, but if any of you can help us get there, we’ll all be eternally grateful out here.

Anybody in the San Diego area who wants to help can let us know by emailing us at volunteer-at-busbyforcongress.org or calling us at (760) 479-0114.

Thanks either way, and onward!


Francine Busby

Let’s make sure that we put everything into this one.  We certainly don’t want to be left next Wednesday wondering what could have been.  If you can help her send her an email at volunteer-at-busbyforcongress.org or talk to somebody you know that’s already volunteering.  Also, Moveon.org is having a virtual phonebank if you are outside of SoCal.

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CA-50: A collection of the NRCC and Bilbray’s ludicrous ads

( – promoted by SFBrianCL)

I wanted to consolidate some of the ridiculous ads, and the Busby rebuttals.  Most of the links are from FactCheck.org, where you can find lots of info debunking NRCC ads against Busby.  If you can volunteer, donate, or VOTE!  The flip has some info for GOTV Volunteering.

1) Immigration:

NRCC ad(WMV): Bubsy wants amnesty.

Busby ad (WMV): Busby supports McCain (R-AZ) Immigration Plan

2) Gas Tax

NRCC ad (WMV): Busby wants to increase the gas tax

Truth: Busby backed off her support for an increase in the gas tax.

Busby ad: Bilbray took money from Big Oil.

3) Busby on Child Porn Teacher

NRCC ad: Busby praised a teacher arrested for kiddie porn and excercise poor judgement as a school board member.  Here  is the mailer version of that ad.

Truth: Busby expressed shock when that teacher was arrested.

Busby ad: He never taught again after being arrested.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/2006/06/ca50_getoutthev.php

  GOTV June 3rd-6th

  Saturday June 3rd, Sunday June 4th & Monday June 5th

  Door Hangers 10am-8pm
  (Shifts beginning at 10am, 1pm & 4pm)

  Election Day June 6th

  Precinct Poll Checks
  6:00am-9am Door Hangers
  9:30am-8pm Precinct Poll Walks
  (Shifts beginning at 9:30am, 12pm & 4pm)

  Canvass Locations:

  Coastal Canvass
  Headline Graphics Parking Lot
  131 Aberdeen Drive
  Cardiff By The Sea, Ca 92007
  (760) 436-0133

  Southern Canvass
  Carpenter’s Hall
  8595 Miralani Drive, Suite A
  San Diego, Ca 92123

  Northern Canvass
  CWA Escondido Union Hall
  1525 Simpson Way
  Escondido, Ca 92029

  Phone Bank Locations:

  Coastal Phone Bank:
  Busby Cardiff Office
  2121 Newcastle Avenue
  Cardiff By The Sea, Ca 92007
  (760) 479-0114

  Northern Phone Banks:
  CWA Escondido Union Hall
  1525 Simpson Way
  Escondido, Ca 92029

  Nava Residence
  858 Calle Montera
  Escondido, Ca 9202

  RSVP to [email protected]
  Or call (760) 479-0114

Arnold Schwarzenegger, Blog Roundup

California Blog Roundup, 6/2/06

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Today’s California Blog Roundup is on the flip. I’m having a hard time keeping up: more people are writing as the election approaches. Teasers: Angelides, Westly, Schwarzenegger, Bowen, Paid-For Pombo, Francine Busby, Winograd v. Harman, Props 81 and 82, Jerry Lewis / CA-41, discussion of various reforms,immigration, and recent legislative actions.

Statewide Races

Paid-For Pombo / CA-11

Busby / CA-50

Winograd / Harman / CA-36

  • This Paul Rosenberg diary at MyDD re Marcy Winograd’s endorsement by another Democratic Club and the ensuing discussion are interesting. I’ll keep pressing Paul to crosspost his stuff.

  • The BradBlog interviews Marcy Winograd. Unsurprisingly, there’s a lot of stuff in there about election reform and voting machines, but also a lot of other topics, so don’t be afraid to go read it.

  • Alicia of Last Left Before Hooterville spent a night phone-banking for Marcy Winograd, and feels really good about it.

Other Electoral

Propositions

  • Tom Hilton of If I Ran the Zoo says yes to both Prop 81 and Prop 82.

  • Hannah-Beth Jackson at Speak Out CA runs through some of the groups opposing Prop 82. There are a startling number of pro-big-bidness groups involved. Why would they care? Prop 82 levies a tax on the personal income of very few people. Oh, wait. That’s right — those people are likely to be big-bidness executives. Funny that.

  • Beep takes the Next Ten state budget challenge and finds that she probably can’t support Prop 82, because she’d rather use the tax imposed for other things. Well, fair enough, but Beep, there is nothing else on offer today, nor is there likely to be in the foreseeable future. The anti-government groups who prevent any kind of sensible fiscal policy have seen to that.

Reform

Immigration

Legislative Action

Miscellany

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CA-50: The perfect storm

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(Hat tip to Kos – promoted by SFBrianCL)

Carl Luna, a political science professor at San Diego Mesa College, pens a piece on the San Diego U-T’s blog about CA-50 describing the confluence of events that will lead to Francine Busby’s victory on Tuesday.

Basically, he describes the process as being a perfect storm for a Dem victory: unopposed Dem who can play towards the middle, one corrupt, moderate Rep, running against a bunch of wingers in the primary, who has to play to the right, wingers who don’t go away quietly after the first election, and so on…

1. Run multiple conservative GOP candidates in the primary along with one moderate. This would guarantee that the district’s conservative would be split, giving the moderate a plurality without his winning the hearts, minds and votes of the majority of the party.

2. Have the moderate be a current Washington insider well acquainted with (and tainted by) the DC culture of corruption rather than being a bright new, energetic and well-financed newcomer.

3. Have a Democratic candidate who runs unopposed in the primary and is therefore able—and smart enough– to position herself safely to the middle on all major issues while the Republicans savage themselves to out-right each other.

4. Run a Democrat as candidate who has the charisma of a Kennedy and character of an Eisenhower. Meanwhile, end up with a Republican candidate who kind of resembles Richard Nixon in a speedo. (San Diego U-T 6/1/06)

I think this is a problem for the NRCC.  They are getting so desperate to come up with anything about Busby to attack her on.  The woman is practically your grandmother, and who wants politicos attacking your grandmother? 

Luna continues:

5. Have the defeated conservative Republican candidates not rally faithfully behind the party standard bearer ….

6. Have the moderate Republican nominee run on a hard-right immigration reform plan as his wedge issue…

7. Have a Republican President with an approval rating lower than the average used-car salesman …Throw in a Republican controlled congress that would kill to have an approval rating as high as said President’s.

8. Have both parties’ national congressional committees pour millions of dollars into nuclearly (or is it nucularly?) bombastic negative ads, with the Republican ads being so over the top as to be absurd. …

9. Finally, in the last weeks of the campaign have one of the most divisive figures in Republican national politics come to stump for the Republican moderate to help shore up the district’s conservative base but, at the last moment, have the crown prince of Republican moderation, also planning to stump for the candidate to shore up moderate and independent voters, chooses not to do so in a snit because the candidate has publicly dissed the crown prince’s moderate compromise plan on immigration reform.

Yup, that pretty well summarizes it.  I think that he left out the fact that Busby will ultimately be a far better asset to the district, but we can forgive him for getting lost in the horse race at a moment like this.

San Diego

CA-50: Bilbray runs pro-Busby ads

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~–~ Note there are 5 days until this election!! ~–~

Isn’t it funny how ads and arguments that are supposedly attacks, often only give you more reasons to like a candidate (if you weren’t the intended audience for the ad)? Case in point, some of Brian Bilbray’s ads against Francine Busby.

They are all on his web page, lets take a look.

A TV ad “English” (WindowsMedia, Quicktime)

It plays a video clip from one of the debates, where Busby says she thinks having an official language is a silly idea. It also points out her support for the McCain-Edwards version of immigration reform.

  • On both counts, great!

TV ad “One Clear Choice” (WindowsMedia, Quicktime)

Busby supports letting babies born in the United States, be citizens of the United States. (um, duh!) Bilbray brags about writing the first House bill that would bar some babies born in the United States from being citizens, depending on their parents’ status (Question: does that include the father, because…how would that even work? Also, since just about every country in the world decides citizenship based on being born in the country, would those kids have citizenship anywhere else? Would they be citizens of nowhere?)

  • Needless to say, score 2 more for Busby! Wow, Brian, your ads really are persuasive!

Mail piece: Endorsed by Corky Smith (pdf)

Corky Smith is about as good an endorsement as Mr. 19% Dick Cheney (pics of protest of Cheney’s Bilbray fundraiser). Is someone accused of cronyism and secret dealings with Walmart, who openly mocked the efforts of a bipartisan grassroots group of his own constituents in a local TV news interview, really the kind of person that Bilbray wants to associate himself with at this juncture? (when there are questions about a New Year’s Eve trip Bilbray and his wife took to the Marianas, paid for by Jack Abramoff!)

  • If birds of a feather flock together, this is another big reason to vote Busby.

Mail piece: Had Enough? (pdf)

This one I’m just throwing in for entertainment value. The words “Had Enough?” take up half the page. Isn’t that the Democrats’ theme for November? This one really is a pro-Busby ad ROTFL!!

cross-posted to dkos