We have 15 months to go before Election Day, and it’s time for another roundup of Congressional races. I am going to continue to focus on the top 10 challenges to Republican incumbents. There is certainly a concern in CA-11 with the Jerry McNerney/Dean Andal race, particularly after McNerney’s “I’m a moderate” comment seemed to depress supporters. On the bright side, he did vote against the ridiculous FISA bill. And as we go into September, I would hope he would continue his efforts to end the occupation of Iraq. I will certainly cover the McNerney race in future roundups.
But for now, let’s take a look at the top 10 challenges. I’m going to rank them in order of most possible pickup, including their number from the last roundup. I’m also adding the “Boxer number.” Basically, seeing how Boxer fared in her 2004 re-election against Bill Jones in a particular district is a decent indicator of how partisan it is. If I put “57,” that means Boxer received 57% of the vote. Anything over 50, obviously, is good. (over)
1) CA-04 (Doolittle). Last month: 1. Boxer number: 40. Charlie Brown got some amazing news this week. Mike Holmes, an Auburn city councilman and a Republican, announced he was running in the primary to unseat ethically challenged Rep. John Doolittle. Holmes ran a primary race last year and got around 30% of the vote. This gives Doolittle two challengers next June (Eric Egland has already announced), which is a lot better for Doolittle than one challenger to which anti-Doolittle forces can focus their energies. This makes it more likely that a wounded Doolittle will survive the primaries (if he’s not indicted by then) and face Brown, who’s flush with cash and unopposed in his primary. Brown also made a great impression at the Yearly Kos Convention, so there will be plenty of online support for him.
2) CA-26 (Dreier). Last month: 2. Boxer number: 48. Another candidate who made a big impression at Yearly Kos was Russ Warner. At the California caucus he gave a version of this speech:
Warner’s fundraising stats were already impressive for the district, and now we’re starting to see some grassroots support. If he can tap into what Hilda Solis has been doing online (Solis has endorsed him), there could be a groundswell. Meanwhile, Dreier is whining that local Democrats blocked funding for expanding the Gold Line light-rail service to “focus on projects in their districts rather than regional priorities.” Right, because the Gold Line doesn’t mainly go through Pasadena, in Adam Schiff’s district. Dreier is such a tool.
3) CA-24 (Gallegly). Last month: 3. Boxer number: 47. The August recess is retirement season for GOP Congresscritters. We’ve already seen three of them go this week alone. So naturally thoughts turn to who’s next, and Gallegly, who tried to get out in 2006, is a prime candidate. There certainly must be some talk about it in the district: he’s got four declared candidates already: Jill Martinez, Brett Wagner, James “Chip” Fraser, and Mary Pallant.
4) CA-50 (Bilbray). Last month: 4. Boxer number: 48. Michael Wray has dropped out of the primary in CA-50, leaving John Lee Evans and Nick Leibham to contest for the right to battle Brian Bilbray next November. The best way to attack Bilbray, who doesn’t get off that illegal immigration message for a second, is to highlight his pro-Bush, anti-progress voting record, including denying health care to 6 million American children with his vote against SCHIP last month. Leibham apparently raised $89,000 last quarter, and Bilbray has a paltry $213,000 CoH, which is interesting.
5) CA-42 (Miller). Last month: 7. Boxer number: 41. The big news here is that we have a candidate, and it’s blogger Ron Shepston. You’ve undoubtedly read a little about him on Calitics. LA City Beat has a nice article about Ron and the netroots movement behind him in this race. It’s not going to be easy. But Ron has raised about $7,200 on ActBlue alone, and his offline fundraising is progressing. And Miller is still taking heat from the DCCC, who sent out a notice to reporters attacking his vote against SCHIP.
6) CA-41 (Lewis). Last month: 5. Boxer number: 43. Like with Gallegly, we’re waiting to see if the rumors about Lewis’ impending retirement are true. We do know that Lewis has continued to bring home the bacon (a little questionable earmarking isn’t going to stop him) to his district, and then there’s this:
A lobby firm connected to a federal investigation has seen business boom this year for its clients, many of whose projects are in a powerful House appropriator’s district.
The House Appropriations Committee’s ranking member, Rep. Jerry Lewis (R-Calif.), has sponsored or co-sponsored $55 million worth of earmarks in this year’s defense spending bill – close to half of the funds won by the California Republican in the legislation – for clients represented by one firm.
A former appropriations aide to Lewis, Letitia White, and former Rep. Bill Lowery (R-Calif.), who is friendly with Lewis, work at the company, Innovative Federal Strategies (IFS).
Tim Prince is all but in this race. I met him a few weeks back and he seems like a nice guy.
7) CA-44 (Calvert). Last month: 6. Boxer number: 45. Last month’s ruling that a city government agency illegally sold Ken Calvert a bunch of land hasn’t gotten a ton of traction yet. He has been targeted by MoveOn in a Riverside-area protest where protestors presented him with a report on how much money district taxpayers have spent on the war in Iraq. Calvert is dug in on Iraq, which is of course going to be a major issue in 2008. Bill Hedrick will be Calvert’s opponent, and, um, check out the blog!
8) CA-45 (Bono). Last month: 8. Boxer number: 49. Still no opponent named, and I’m flirting with the idea of dropping any race out of the top 10 unless there’s a named candidate. This is really a missed opportunity right now.
9) CA-46 (Rohrabacher). Last month: unranked. Boxer number: 45. I’m adding nutcase Dana Rohrabacher to the list for a couple reasons. One, he has an announced opponent (Jim Brandt, who ran against him last year) UPDATE: sorry, I read something wrong, he has no announced opponent yet. Two, it gives me an opportunity to print this quote.
Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, R-Huntington Beach/ Long Beach, was baffled when asked recently about his use of the popular online gathering site Facebook.
“Faith book?” the befuddled congressman replied.
Hilarious.
10) CA-52 (open seat). Last month: 10. Boxer number: 44. Duncan Hunter was unable to beat people who weren’t running in the Ames Straw Poll in Iowa. He’s gone from this seat, but his son is running and it’s a safe bet that the Republicans will retain it.
Last night, Republicans walked off the House Floor after Democrats changed the outcome of a vote after the final tally had been called. And this was not just any vote. The vote would have barred illegal immigrants from receiving food stamps and subsidized housing. Republicans had just enough votes to pass the motion, and we won the final vote 215-213.
That should have been the end of it. But not under the Pelosi Congress.
After the gavel had fallen, Stockton, California Freshman Democrat Jerry McNerney (CA-11) changed his vote to oppose the motion, and even though the vote was closed, they allowed the outcome to go the other way.
Say what? More on the flip…
Curious to find out more about this rather extraordinary allegation, I did a little searching and came up with a Congressional Quarterly article that gave this description of the events: (emphasis added)
Late Thursday, the Republicans moved from unhappy to irate when a Democratic presiding officer ruled that their motion to shelve the agriculture bill had been defeated, even though as the gavel fell the electronic scoreboard in the chamber blinked a tally of 215 votes for the motion and 213 against it.
House Republicans declared that unless Democrats honored the 215-213 outcome, the GOP would block action on all but two bills – a modification (HR 3356) of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (PL 95-511) and a bill (HR 3311) authorizing up to $250 million to rebuild the collapsed Minneapolis highway bridge.
The GOP motion that touched off the furor would in effect have amended the spending bill (HR 3161) to bar use of funds to employ or provide housing for illegal immigrants. Instead, Democrats plowed ahead, eventually passing the bill by 237-18 on a roll call boycotted by most Republicans. […]
The floor confusion arose when, with the tally tied at 214-214, two politically vulnerable Democrats, Nick Lampson of Texas and Harry E. Mitchell of Arizona, went to the well of the chamber to switch their votes to “no.” The buddy system would prevent Democrats who voted “no” from being targeted as the deciding vote in future campaign ads. Moments later, three Cuban-American Republicans from south Florida, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Lincoln Diaz-Balart and Mario Diaz-Balart, moved to change their votes to “aye.”
The five vote switches were called out by the House reading clerk. The two Democratic changes put the tally at 212-216. Ros-Lehtinen’s switch made it 213-215. Lincoln Diaz-Balart evened it at 214-214, but a tie vote fails. As the reading clerk called out Mario Diaz-Balart’s new vote, the Speaker Pro Tempore, Rep. Michael R. McNulty, D-N.Y., banged the gavel, apparently unaware that the second Diaz-Balart’s vote had yet to be counted.
McNulty had his eyes on the electronic scoreboard, which still read 214-214. But almost as soon as the gavel came down, the scoreboard registered Mario Diaz-Balart’s vote, pushing the tally to 215-213. The scoreboard showed those numbers and the word “FINAL.”
Within a minute or so, a flurry of post-gavel vote switches by Reps. Zack Space of Ohio, Kirsten Gillibrand of New York and Jerry McNerney of California – resulted in an official outcome of 212-216. […]
“Shame! Shame!” Republicans chanted across the aisle.
You can watch it for yourself.
Now, I certainly have my own ideas about what transpired with this vote (note that House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer seemed to be running the show for the Democrats and note, also, that it was five “politically vulnerable” freshman Democrats who won in Republican-leaning districts in 2006 who switched their votes at the last minute). Frankly, I don’t like the conclusion that I’ve reached. If anyone reading this has a more charitable interpretation of these events, I’d certainly be interested in hearing all about it.
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(The DCCC announced that they were pleased with McNerney, is this what they have been pushing him to do? – promoted by Julia Rosen)
Back in 2006, when Jerry McNerney was running for Congress in CA-11, he would appear at forums, meetings and fundraisers where he would often be called upon to speak. One of the lines he used often, usually to thundering applause, was “I am a Barbara Boxer Democrat!” Never once did he say, “I am a Dennis Cardoza Democrat!” I suspect his audiences might have reacted a little more coolly if he had.
And yet his stance on the issues to date has more closely mirrored that of Rep. Dennis Cardoza (CA-18), who is well known for his conservative Blue Dog associations. Why is McNerney making this rightward shift?
Well, I’ve given McNerney the benefit of the doubt over the last seven months, preferring to think that he was getting bad advice from his Chief of Staff, Angela Kouters. I figured that Kouters, who is young, ambitious, inexperienced and thoroughly under the influence of Inside-the-Beltway conventional wisdom, was urging him to take so-called “moderate” positions in an attempt to pander to the DC perception of conservative CA-11 residents.
But it appears that I may have been mistaken. Unfortunately, the news today has brought two separate stories which have led me to the difficult conclusion that Jerry McNerney is not the man he appeared to be. That is to say, it sure seems like he duped many of his strongest supporters.
See why on the flip…
After voting last Thursday against the Hinchey amendment to H.R. 3093, an amendment that would have prevented federal prosecution for medical marijuana usage in the twelve states which have legalized it, he offered this explanation in today’s Sacramento Bee:
McNerney insists he is not a Pelosi clone. Last week, for example, he broke ranks with most California Democrats by voting against an amendment to ban use of federal money to prosecute growers of medicinal marijuana.
“I’m a moderate,” he said.
Well, I hate to break it to the Congressman, but that was not a “moderate” vote. The amendment was co-sponsored by Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (CA-46) — yes, you heard me. Jerry McNerney is to the right of Crazy Dana Rohrabacher. If McNerney had bothered to look at the Field poll done back in 2004, he would realize that Californians statewide support the legalization of medical marijuana by close to a three-quarters majority. Even two-thirds of Republicans support it. Here’s a newsflash to Jerry McNerney. When only 24% of the residents of your state support your position, it’s not moderate. It’s extreme… extreme right-wing.
But almost as bad as his Hinchey vote is the news coming from Germany today. Rep. McNerney led a bi-partisan delegation of Congressional freshmen to Iraq over the weekend. On his way home from Iraq, McNerney participated in a conference call with reporters during a layover.
McNerney, the California congressman, also said he saw signs of progress in Ramadi and was impressed by Petraeus, who argued in favor of giving President Bush’s troop surge strategy time to work.
McNerney said he still favors a timeline to get troops out of Iraq — something House leaders may bring to the floor again this week as part of a defense spending bill — but is open to crafting it in a way more favorable to generals’ wishes.
“As long as we start at a certain date I’d be willing to be a little more flexible in terms of when it might end,” McNerney said.
Arriving in Baghdad on a C-130 from Kuwait, he met first with officials including Gen. David Petraeus, whom he said is working very hard and is “very optimistic about what’s happening in the conflict… He’s concerned about being given enough rope to finish the job here.” […]
“We need to put a timetable out there, it needs to make sense,” McNerney added — a plan to bring the troops home, so that the Iraqi government is compelled to unite and take over the task of securing the country. “I think we can work to find a way forward that would be bipartisan, that would accomodate the achievements they have had in the last four or five months.”
Leading the delegation was Rep. Jerry McNerney, D-Calif., who said he saw signs of progress in Ramadi in Anbar province and was impressed by Gen. David Petraeus, President Bush’s top military commander in Iraq, who argued in favor of giving Bush’s troop surge strategy time to work.
McNerney said he still favors a timeline to get troops out of Iraq — something House leaders may bring to the floor again this week as part of a defense spending bill — but is open to being flexible “in terms of when it might end.”
[Update] And in a later AP story from the Fresno Bee:
“I’m more willing to work with finding a way forward to accommodate what the generals are saying,” McNerney told reporters Monday during a conference call from Germany on his way back to the U.S.
I have a hard time figuring out how Jerry McNerney’s latest words and deeds have anything to do with being a “Barbara Boxer Democrat.” I know, I know, it’s better than Richard Pombo. But is this what we all really put our sweat and blood into? How has the reality of Congressman Jerry McNerney differed from what we might have expected from his primary opponent, the DLC-anointed Steve Filson? How do we, as a progressive movement, demand accountability from the candidates that we support? When they turn their backs on us and our issues, do we just shrug our shoulders and settle for scraps? I’m genuinely at a loss. What do you think?
Yesterday, Rep. Jerry McNerney voted against Rep. Maurice Hinchey’s amendment to H.R. 3093. The amendment would have prevented the government from enforcing federal drug laws against the medicinal use of marijuana in the twelve states that have legalized it. McNerney made this vote apparently without regard for the fact that Californians overwhelmingly supported Proposition 215, the Compassionate Use Act of 1996.
The SF Chronicle duly noted McNerney’s explanation for his vote:
McNerney, who alone among the Bay Area’s all-Democratic House delegation voted against the measure, tied marijuana use to other illegal drugs.
“We are facing a drug crisis with meth and other drug use on the rise. Until we get a handle on the crippling drug use in our society, I cannot support the relaxation of current drug policy,” McNerney said in a statement.
“I have spoken to many law enforcement officials concerned about the effect of drug use on our communities, particularly in San Joaquin County. The problem is real. Just yesterday, Stockton police announced a successful illegal drug sweep — in cooperation with other law enforcement agencies — that led to 51 arrests and the seizure of over 12 pounds of illegal substances,” he said.
More about McNerney’s lame excuse on the flip…
The arrests in Stockton are detailed in this Stockton Record article. You can judge for yourself the role that legalized medical marijuana played in this law enforcement action.
Since then, 51 people have been arrested, 17 of them under suspicion of trafficking in illegal drugs. The remaining suspects were arrested on suspicion of various drug, firearms and probation violations, as well as on outstanding warrants.
Agents seized roughly 7.7 pounds of methamphetamine, 2.3 pounds of crack cocaine, 1 pound of marijuana, 3/4 pound of heroin and 3.4 grams of PCP — with a total street value of approximately $400,000, according to the DEA. Agents also seized $32,901 in cash and 19 firearms, including shotguns and assault rifles.
Just in case you’re wondering what the medicinal use of marijuana by cancer patients such as John Cosgrove has to do with gangs in Stockton, I think Bruce Mirken absolutely nailed it in his response: (emphasis added)
Bruce Mirken, communications director for the national Marijuana Policy Project, said McNerney’s statement “deliberately confuses apples and oranges, and insults every California patient struggling to maintain life and dignity in the face of cancer, AIDS, MS, and other horrible illnesses.
“No sane person considers it a ‘relaxation of drug laws’ that physicians are allowed to prescribe methamphetamine, cocaine and morphine, and no one seriously suggests depriving patients who need those drugs of their benefits just because someone else might misuse them,” Mirken said. “This statement reads like an excuse, not a reason, to justify what McNerney thinks is a politically safe vote.”
But that political calculation is wrong, Mirken insisted; three quarters of California voters support the state’s medical marijuana law, “and those who worked and donated money to put McNerney in office will be the most bitterly disillusioned by his betrayal of the most vulnerable Californians.”
With 16 months to go before Election Day, some Democratic challengers are getting a little more visible in their efforts to unseat Republican incumbents. I see good news at the very top of the target list, and elsewhere we’re still waiting to see who will run. Let’s focus on the top 10 races where a Republican is currently serving, knowing that we are still going to have a fight in CA-11 to re-elect Jerry McNerney (although that probably won’t be against Guy Houston, who may be on trial for fraud at the time).
So let’s take a look at the top 10 challenges. I’m going to rank them in order of most possible pickup, including their number from the last roundup. I’m also adding the “Boxer number.” Basically, seeing how Boxer fared in her 2004 re-election against Bill Jones in a particular district is a decent indicator of how partisan it is. If I put “57,” that means Boxer received 57% of the vote. Anything over 50, obviously, is good. (over)
1) CA-04 (Doolittle). Last month: 1. Boxer number: 40. Everyone that Rep. John Doolittle has ever known or worked with is currently talking to the FBI. The sense is that it’s just a matter of time. His newfound antiwar stance didn’t translate into a vote for responsible redeployment yesterday; it was all talk. Charlie Brown (who has a spiffy new website) has released a comprehensive national security plan that is a good read. I have not seen him release any full Q2 fundraising numbers just yet, but given that he’s one of only two spotlighted candidates on Blue Majority, I’m sure they’ll be solid. We do know that he raised over $45,000 on ActBlue with almost 1,000 contributors. That’s significant.
2) CA-26 (Dreier). Last month: 2. Boxer number: 48. The more I hear about this race, the more I like it. I think this should be the number one target for Southern California progressives. Dreier is lashed to Bush (and in his case Giuliani) like everybody else in the California caucus; but he’s got a swing district and a real challenger. Russ Warner, who ran last time, announced that he raised around $100,000 in the 2nd quarter, and has over $150,000 cash on hand. According to the press release, “Warner has more money on hand at this early stage of the campaign than all but one Democratic nominee has ever raised and spent against David Dreier in the entire general election since he was first elected to Congress in 1980.” This account of Warner shows that he is getting local coverage, and the fact that he has the endorsement of Hilda Solis is a major coup. That his son is serving a tour in Iraq right now adds an emotional appeal.
There is at least one other challenger who’s raising money at a decent clip. Hoyt Hilsman also has $150,000 CoH after having loaned his campaign $100,000 personally. Hilsman is an author and a professor.
3) CA-24 (Gallegly). Last month: 3. Boxer number: 47. It’s still retirement watch for Elton Gallegly. He has $800,000 in the bank, which would presume a run. But he had $1.1 million in the bank two years ago, when he retired and then clumsily returned to the race. We know at least 3 people are mounting a run against him; 2006 opponent Jill Martinez, 2004 opponent Brett Wagner, and my friend and fellow delegate Mary Pallant. Richard Francis, a prominent lawyer, has also made a little noise about running. So the sharks are circling and waiting to see what Gallegly will do.
4) CA-50 (Bilbray). Last month: 5. Boxer number: 48. The fact that there are three legitimate challengers to Brian Bilbray shows that there is some Democratic activism within the district. Our San Diego correspondent Lucas O’Connor has given us this account of Michael Wray’s efforts at outreach to Democrats. John Lee Evans and Nick Leibham are also making the rounds in the district. As for Brian Bilbray, we do know that he hates brown people and he bottles his own beer. I don’t know if he’s committed a firing offense, though certainly there’s a pro-Bush voting record opponents can highlight.
5) CA-41 (Lewis). Last month: 3. Boxer number: 43. There’s also a retirement watch of sorts here, as we all wait and see if Robert Novak’s report that Lewis won’t seek re-election is true. We also learned this week that Lewis is dedicated to helping his constituents in Washington, DC, where he requested a $500,000 earmark for a Metro station that would be three blocks from his Capitol-area home. That could be turned into a defining issue in an election. There are rumblings that it would be best for Republicans to urge Lewis to retire, so of course they won’t do it. There is still no word on whether attorney Tim Prince will jump into this race, at least that I’ve heard.
6) CA-44 (Calvert). Last month: 8. Boxer number: 45. The next of the “corruption boys” of the GOP, Calvert is in trouble over a recent grand jury ruling that showed a city government agency illegally sold him and other investors a four-acre parcel of land a few years back. He doesn’t seem deterred by it, and really the grand jury ruled against the government agency and not him. This is absolutely a district where we should run someone strong. A recent report showed that Riverside County is poised to become the second-largest in the state, behind only Los Angeles County. Democrats need visibility there in a big way. Defenders of Wildlife is running ads against Calvert, so they obviously see some vulnerabilities there.
7) CA-42 (Miller). Last month: 6. Boxer number: 41. Gary Miller rounds out the GOP corruption boys. It’s such a Republican seat that just making him spend money will be a win. Not much to report this month.
8) CA-45 (Bono). Last month: 8. Boxer number: 49. I would love to have more to say about this race, but sadly, I don’t. She is apparently one of Washington’s most eligible bachelorettes. That’s all I’ve got for ya.
9) CA-25 (McKeon). Last month: 9. Boxer number: 45. McKeon, the ranking Democrat Republican on the Education and Labor Committee, railed against the recent passage of an increase in the Pell Grant to make college more affordable for our best an brightest. Yeah, because that would be terrible. I would love to see someone challenge this guy.
10) CA-52 (open seat). Last month: 10. Boxer number: 44. Despite it being an open seat, I still don’t expect to see anyone beating Duncan Hunter’s son while he’s serving in Iraq.
(Also, there’s still time to give some money in Q2. Go to our ActBlue Page. – promoted by Brian Leubitz)
The good times just kept on rolling, until well, it got really freaking cold at Zeitgeist. We had about 30 people there, who braved my overly optimistic weather forecasts and the contact highs to come out and have some beer and conversation. Every once in a while it is great to just turn off the computer and meet some of those people that you talk to online. Plus, the quarterlies brought in about $1500. Not bad for the beginning of what we hope to be a great tradition in California’s progressive politics
In the photo, Jenifer Ancona (jra) is talking to Robert Greenwald and Brian Devine (Be_Devine).
I especially apologize to Robert Greenwald of Brave New Films for not telling him that it can get kinda chilly at the outdoor venue. My bad. But, Robert did give us some really interesting information. Apparently he is working on a new project Supermarket Swindle. Did you know that since 2002, the supermarket workers have gotten 0 pay raises? Yet, the CEOs have had raises up to 700%. Pretty nice gig, huh?
dengre at DailyKos, who has been tracking the Northern Marianas Islands-Tom Delay scandal like a bloodhound, has an excellent diary up. I recommend reading it, but the key element for California politics is that Jerry McNerney is standing strong against corrupt lobbyists.
Basic upshot is that Jerry raised hell about FroshPAC, the PAC dedicated to re-electing our 41 Freshman Democrats in Congress, hiring an uber-lobbyist with ties to the “Pirates of Saipan” to run the PAC. Jerry was adamant about refusing to take money from the PAC until the lobbyist was let go–and Jerry won, as the lobbyist in question, William Oldaker, was just let go.
Score yet another one for Jerry, who continues to stand strong on principle and make CA-11 proud.
The good times just kept on rolling, until well, it got really freaking cold at Zeitgeist. We had about 30 people there, who braved my overly optimistic weather forecasts and the contact highs to come out and have some beer and conversation. Every once in a while it is great to just turn off the computer and meet some of those people that you talk to online. Plus, the quarterlies brought in about $1500. Not bad for the beginning of what we hope to be a great tradition in California’s progressive politics