AP Reports and CNN confirms:

Democrat John Edwards is exiting the presidential race Wednesday, ending a scrappy underdog bid in which he steered his rivals toward progressive ideals while grappling with family hardship that roused voters’ sympathies, The Associated Press has learned.

The two-time White House candidate notified a close circle of senior advisers that he planned to make the announcement at a 1 p.m. EST event in New Orleans that had been billed as a speech on poverty, according to two aides. The decision came after Edwards lost the four states to hold nominating contests so far to rivals who stole the spotlight from the beginning – Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama.

The former North Carolina senator will not immediately endorse either candidate in what is now a two-person race for the Democratic nomination, said one adviser, who spoke on condition of anonymity in advance of the announcement. Both candidates would welcome Edwards’ backing and the support of the 56 delegates he had collected.

Obviously the big question is how his votes will get redistributed. For us in California it’s especially interesting, because if Obama can peel off enough of the Edwards supporters, we’re going to have one dramatic night next week.

An added wrinkle is the votes already cast. Edwards’ supporters have been among the most dedicated and loyal in this campaign, and many of his California supporters have already mailed in their ballots. As Brian pointed out yesterday, the VBM return rates are “low” overall so there may be a significant chunk of Edwards backers who haven’t voted and could decide the outcome here.

So what will they do? Or, if you’re an Edwards supporter, what do you plan to do?

(cross-posted from ATM Watch)

Conventional wisdom has long had it that California's decision to move up its primary to February 5 (along with many other states) would result in several undesirable consequences, not least among them being the increased importance of money in the campaign and the rise in influence of Iowa and New Hampshire (although how they could be more influential than they were in 2004 is beyond me.) Both of these scenarios, so the argument goes, point to a Hillary Clinton victory, making a February 5 “national” primary all the more problematic.

But over the past few months, reality, as it is wont to do, has seeped in and undermined the conventional wisdom. Take Q1 fundraising — Obama outraised Clinton in primary funds taking her title of presumed money leader away; and then there are the Iowa and New Hampshire polls, which have generally shown her to be much more vulnerable in the early states than she is nationwide. So what's a poor would-be front runner to do when the conventional wisdom that she had relied on to take her to victory falls down around her? It looks increasingly as though Clinton's answer is to buck conventional wisdom altogether and run hard for February 5.

This strategy requires the dismantling of one of the central assumptions about a frontloaded primary schedule, namely the heightened kingmaker status of Iowa and New Hampshire. 

Follow me…

Step one in shattering this assumption: change the media narrative. Central to this was the “leak” last week of the memo by a Clinton deputy campaign manager recommending that Clinton skip the Iowa caucuses altogether. Clinton, of course, immediately came out and denounced the memo, stating unequivocally that she intends to compete hard in Iowa. But the memo did its job, which was to plant the seed in the media that for Clinton, Iowa isn't make or break. And we all know the importance of Iowa and New Hampshire depends entirely on the expectations game spun by the media. For example, right now, Iowa is must-win for Edwards, which is a dangerous place to be. Clinton is slowly building a new media narrative, which is about lowering expectations for herself in Iowa and building up the importance of Feb 5.

Step two: develop an aggressive early vote strategy. As juls wrote HERE, the fact that Iowans actually will not be the first to vote in the 2008 presidential election was central to the controversial Clinton strategy memo. California has that honor, as our permanent absentee voters, 3.9 million strong, will be able to vote beginning January 7. And how better to reduce the importance of the results of Iowa and New Hampshire than to maximize the number of votes people cast before those results are even known.

As we've seen Clinton swoop in for money over the past few months, it's become clear that California IS much more than an ATM for her, but it's not the voters she's engaging with; rather it's the politicians whose endorsements she's racking up, and the staff she's hiring on the ground. As juls put it:

She has locked up the two highest profile Latinos in the state and will use them as surrogates on her behalf…It will be a very top down coordinated campaign that relies heavily on voter files to drive in early votes.

But these endorsements are not only key to winning California, they are central to her overall February 5 strategy. Frank at California Progress Report shares with us yet another strategy memo, this one on winning the Latino vote, released by the campaign on Wednesday morning, the day she received Mayor Villaraigosa's endorsement. The memo cites her polling strength in states with large hispanic populations such as California, New York, Texas, New Jersey, Colorado and Arizona. She's way ahead in all of them. The dates of their primaries or caucuses: February 5. Not surprisingly, neither Iowa nor New Hampshire is anywhere to be found on that memo.

If anyone can pull this off it's Clinton, whose husband turned second place in New Hampshire into a media victory in 1992. Funny thing about conventional wisdom…even when it’s wrong, sometimes it ends up being exactly right.

A total of 23 states may hold primaries on February 5, 2008. By the end of the day as many as 50% of the delegates will have been chosen. The end of the long primary season is changing the game plans of all candidates as they figure out how to put their resources into the larger delegate rich states and to assess if Iowa and New Hampshire will have as much impact as they had in the past.

The presidential primary system as we have known it for 35 years is dead. History books will record that the era that began with the Democratic National Committee’s post-1968 reforms ended Aug. 19, 2006 at the hands of the very same DNC.

http://bluesunbelt.c…