The protracted count is finally over, and it appears that Hannah-Beth Jackson’s outsize effort to defeat Phony Tony Strickland has come up just short.  With only a few hundred ballots left to count, Strickland currently maintains a 903 vote lead out of 414,587 ballots cast.  That margin is .2%: well within the margin necessary for a mandatory recount request by the Jackson campaign.  Unfortunately, as the pro-Strickland blog Policy Report correctly notes, such a recount effort would almost certainly be insufficient to net Hannah-Beth the votes she would need to overtake Strickland’s lead, even were the final votes to close the gap to 700 or 800:

According to some experts, a recount of all 400,000+ ballots might yield a variance of 150 votes in one direction or the other at great cost.  Gaining 800 votes in an election of this size is next to impossible.

Hannah-Beth has done the gracious thing and conceded the race:

With the latest totals showing Strickland hanging on to the lead by a little over 900 votes, Jackson said a victory was not mathematically possible.

“I’m disappointed, but I think that it’s pretty clear at this point in time, we’re not going to be able to catch up,” she said.

Strickland is due to be sworn in Monday in Sacramento. He will represent voters in most of Ventura and Santa Barbara counties as well as the northwest corner of Los Angeles County, including Santa Clarita and Stevenson Ranch.

The outcome has been in doubt since the Nov. 4 election, but by Wednesday both candidates agreed that Strickland had won.

Congratulations to Hannah-Beth Jackson and all her volunteers, supporters and staff who ran a courageous campaign against a less than honorable opponent, giving it everything they had to deliver quality representation to the people in SD-19.

This marks the end of two long and arduous races eked out by narrow margins in Ventura County by both Tony and Audra Strickland, who will be attempting to consolidate their power base.  Unfortunately for them, however, their electoral future does not look bright.  It was Ventura County that gave Strickland his victory, but that result is a relic of a Ventura whose demographics and electoral distribution are rapidly changing.   By 2012, there is little doubt that Ventura’s Democratic Majority will deliver a majority of votes for the Democrat.  As I said before, there are three chief reasons for this:

The first is that Ventura County flipped from red to blue earlier this year in terms of voter registrations–and those numbers have shifted even farther in our direction since. This is not just due to discontent with Bush and the Obama Effect: emigres from Los Angeles are swelling Ventura County’s ranks as more and more Angelenos come to appreciate this oft-overlooked area’s natural advantages. The path to victory for Republicans like Tony Strickland is only going to get steeper from here.

Second, Obama’s first term will likely end up going smoothly with good approval ratings, or very poorly with low approval ratings. Given the precarious, sour and moody state of the nation, we’re unlikely to see an apathetic, middling result. As a consequence, the next presidential election is unlikely to be a close contest one way or another. Our poor experiences in California this year will likely have taught us that we need to Stay for Change–especially if a Democratic Governor is elected in 2010, putting GOP legislators as the biggest remaining obstacle to real change in California.

But Tony’s third and biggest problem is that as an incumbent he will have 4-year voting record in the State Senate. Tony’s campaign this year was built entirely on lies; so much so, in fact, that I can say with all sincerity that he ran the most dishonest campaign I’ve personally had the misfortune of seeing up close. He will no longer be able to run as an “independent”, as all his yard signs and mailers deceitfully claimed. He will no longer be able to claim “green” credentials by posing as an alternative energy entrepreneur. He will simply be the incumbent: the Republican incumbent, and with a track record to boot.

So assuming that demography is destiny and the remaining ballots sort themselves out as poorly as we expect, it’s not the end of the road, but merely the beginning. The Stricklands will have earned themselves 2 to 4 years of respite through dishonest campaigning. More Democratic voters, increased intensity, and an unequivocal track record will see them on their way out of Sacramento in a few short years.

But we can’t do it without your help.  Today we begin Strickland Watch: it will be our duty to shadow every move and every vote Tony and Audra Strickland make in Sacramento.  So far, the Stricklands have made their careers by pretending to be something other than the hard right, corporate sockpuppets they are.  The only antidote to such poison is sunlight and exposure, and a full accounting of every single vote and dollar taken by each of them over the course of the next two to four years.

For his part, Tony Strickland is mouthing the right words:

“We need to definitely do whatever we can to reach across party lines to fix the problems of the state,” he said.

Unfortunately, we’ve heard this from Strickland before.  How he and his wife actually vote is another matter.  If their history is any indication, their bipartisan rhetoric will be belied by a hardline ideological stance.  Democrats in Ventura County-myself included–did an inadequate job of informing  our friends, neighbors and community of the Stricklands’ extremist record.  It’s up to us to make sure that doesn’t happen again, and to deliver to Ventura County the competent, progressive representation it has long deserved and been waiting for.

Also at Ventura County Democrats

(sometimes, close recount elections don’t go our way. – promoted by Dante Atkins (hekebolos))

It is with a heavy heart that I report the news that things aren’t looking good in the Jackson-Strickland race in SD-19.  Strickland has retaken a lead in the provisional and absentee counts that he is unlikely to relinquish barring a small miracle, as favorable Santa Barbara County is nearly entirely counted, leaving pro-Strickland Ventura County and the pro-Strickland sliver of L.A. County to probably pad his lead.  The Santa Barbara Independent has more:

Tony Strickland surged to a 1,560 vote lead over Hannah-Beth Jackson Wednesday, on the strength of newly counted ballots in Ventura County. Santa Barbara county’s registrar also reported counting new ballots, which favored the Democrat, but not by nearly enough to make up for the Republican’s strength in Ventura.

It is the first significant lead for either candidate in the closely-contested 19th state senate district since Election Day, and puts Strickland in a commanding position, as counting continues in three counties with portions of the sprawling district.

The overall tally now stands at:

Strickland 187,631 (50.20)

Jackson 186,071 (49.79)

A 1,560 vote lead normally wouldn’t be insurmountable with well over 50,000 votes left to count.  Unfortunately, most of those voters are likely to accrue in Strickland’s favor:

About 1,000 vote by mail ballots remain to be counted in Santa Barbara County, the only place where she has run ahead of Strickland, in addition to about 6,000 provisional ballots; the latter are likely to favor Jackson, as many of them are believed to have been cast by late-registering UCSB students.

However, Strickland is winning handily in Ventura County, which has about 40,000 absentees and 15,000 provisionals outstanding; he has also run well ahead of Jackson in the small part of the district that is in L.A. County. There, the registrar has about 225,000 more vote by mail ballots to count, but only a small number of them are in the 19th district.

Make no mistake about it: this is a tough loss to take if all goes as it appears.  For me, it’s even tougher than Prop 8, and not just because I live in the district.  With Prop 8, there was a sense that we lost due to complacency and poor messaging; with Hannah-Beth, we made our best case and put everything we could into the fight, given the simultaneous urgency of a national election.  The idea that extremist Phony Tony Strickland will be my State Senator for the next four years is literally sickening to me.

But there is some good news for the future that should worry both of the execrable Stricklands.  Red Zone candidate Ferial Masry ran a surprisingly close race against Audra Strickland in the 37th Assembly district representing parts of Ventura and L.A. counties, coming within 3 points of victory in that tough district (and this despite numerous disadvantages in funding, candidate support and perceived “Americanness”).  There is no reason to believe that we cannot build on this success by holding Audra accountable for her votes.

As for Tony?  He’s got three big problems.  The first is that Ventura County flipped from red to blue earlier this year in terms of voter registrations–and those numbers have shifted even farther in our direction since.  This is not just due to discontent with Bush and the Obama Effect: emigres from Los Angeles are swelling Ventura County’s ranks as more and more Angelenos come to appreciate this oft-overlooked area’s natural advantages.  The path to victory for Republicans like Tony Strickland is only going to get steeper from here.

Second, Obama’s first term will likely end up going smoothly with good approval ratings, or very poorly with low approval ratings.  Given the precarious, sour  and moody state of the nation, we’re unlikely to see an apathetic, middling result.  As a consequence, the next presidential election is unlikely to be a close contest one way or another.  Our poor experiences in California this year will likely have taught us that we need to Stay for Change–especially if a Democratic Governor is elected in  2010, putting GOP legislators as the biggest remaining obstacle to real change in California.

But Tony’s third and biggest problem is that as an incumbent he will have 4-year voting record in the State Senate.  Tony’s campaign this year was built entirely on lies; so much so, in fact, that I can say with all sincerity that he ran the most dishonest campaign I’ve personally had the misfortune of seeing up close.  He will no longer be able to run as an “independent”, as all his yard signs and mailers deceitfully claimed.  He will no longer be able to claim “green” credentials by posing as an alternative energy entrepreneur.  He will simply be the incumbent: the Republican incumbent, and with a track record to boot.

So assuming that demography is destiny and the remaining ballots sort themselves out as poorly as we expect, it’s not the end of the road, but merely the beginning.  The Stricklands will have earned themselves 2 to 4 years of respite through dishonest campaigning.  More Democratic voters, increased intensity, and an unequivocal track record will see them on their way out of Sacramento in a few short years.

This is our first attempt at endorsements on a broad scale in the legislature.  It is not comprehensive, we simply don’t have the resources to get to every seat. But, we tried to get to most of the competitive seats.  We’ll provide a bit of commentary on some of these over the flip. State Senate races tomorrow, and Congressional races on Wednesday. But, today, Assembly races:

AD-08: Mariko Yamada

AD-10: Alyson Huber

AD-15: Joan Buchanan

AD-27: Emily Reilly

AD-37: Ferial Masry

AD-40: Laurette Healey

AD-78: Any Democratic candidate other than Auday Arabo.

AD-80: Manuel Perez

UPDATE: AD-14: Kriss Worthington

AD-08: Mariko Yamada

Chris Cabaldon has run a textbook 20th Century campaign. He has a good resume and the institutional support.  Yamada has a solid resume of her own but can also claim the support of much of the grassroots.  She is also a tireless advocate of single payer healthcare. We support Yamada as the more progressive candidate.

AD-10: Alyson Huber

We have respected Ms. Huber for a while, and she continued to impress on the Calitics podcast. AD-10 is a district that is rapidly blue-ing, so we have a shot in this open seat.

UPDATE: AD-14: Kriss Worthington

We missed this one originally, and for that we apologize. Kriss Worthington is definitely deserving of the endorsement of a progressive blog like this one.  While frontrunners Nancy Skinner and Tony Thurmond would likely be excellent Assembly members, Worthington stands out for his prolific work for the progressive movement in the East Bay. He has signaled his intent to be the far-left conscience of the Assembly, and we need one of those.

AD-15: Joan Buchanan

AD-15 is an always competitive seat that shares much of its district with Jerry McNerney’s congressional district.  Ms. Buchanan would be a very competent Assembly member.

AD-27: Emily Reilly

This is a solid progressive district, and the candidates are all pretty good. Nonetheless, we like the way Reilly has reached out to the grassroots and netroots over the past few months. As a current Santa Cruz city council member and former city mayor Reilly also brings valuable government experience, especially with balancing budgets and finding new revenues, that are desperately needed right now in Sacramento. Her intellect, creativity, and support for budget reform and single payer mean she would be an excellent Assembly member.

AD-37: Ferial Masry

AD-37 is a tough district, but Sharon Runner Audra Strickland is a particularly odious Republican who stands in the way of real progressive change.  We wholeheartedly support Masry’s candidacy.

AD-40: Laurette Healey

AD-40 is the seat of Lloyd Levine, who is now termed out.  The campaigning has been long and tiresome between the two candidates favored by the institutional players, Bob Blumenfeld and Stuart Waldman. Both have experience in the legislative bodies as aides, but we find the progressive choice is Laurette Healey.

AD-78: Any Democratic candidate other than Auday Arabo

We won’t be sorry to see Shirley Horton go, and aside from former Bilbray staffer-turned-Democrat Auday Arabo, we’d definitely prefer any of the Democrats in this race over Republican nominee John McCann. But Marty Block, Arlie Ricasa and Maxine Sherard have all run similar campaigns centered on similar issues that have failed to differentiate. We are confident in any of them, but can’t separate one from the rest.

AD-80: Manuel Perez

This race has become a smidge more personal in the last few weeks, and we’d prefer to see it become more substantive.  We like both Manuel Perez and Greg Pettis, the leading candidates. Pettis, an LGBT leader on the Cathedral City Council, would be a solid vote in the  Assembly for Democrats. Perez, on the other hand, holds more potential, and a bit of our concern was eased when he publicly announced his support for gender-neutral marriage licenses. Not only is he a part of a growing demographic that could produce a new progressive majority, he also understands the need for more than transactional changes. In the end, the Calitics Editorial Board chose to support Manuel Perez.

This weekend I attended a pre-convention meeting for Region 10 of the California Democratic Party, which stretches from Santa Monica all the way up to the Monterey/San Luis Obispo County line.  This is a big coastal region, parts of which have not been sufficiently Democratic over the years.  But there are some great people in the trenches doing the necessary work to change that.  Here are some disconnected thoughts:

• It is extremely important to spread the Democratic message into outlying counties, because we can’t expect to solely depend on LA and SF to carry us through.  In 1992, Democrats controlled 41 counties in California; by 2006, that number had dwindled to 22.

• One of the most vibrant areas of the state for Democrats is Ventura County.  Whether it’s because of demographic shifts (more people moving in from Santa Barbara) or a lot of hard work, the results are impressive.  While statewide, Democratic registration has faltered over the past 15 years, in Ventura County Democrats hold a scant 5,000 vote disadvantage currently, compared to 15,000 not but a few years ago. 

• One of the great pilot programs that Democrats in Ventura and Santa Barbara Counties have rolled out is called Vote Blue.  This is a neighbor-to-neighbor program that uses targeted canvassing to spread the progressive message in communities.  They get new homeowner information and arrive at the new resident’s doorstep, saying “Hi, we’re your neighbors, here’s some voter registration information for this area, here’s some information on the Democratic agenda.”  I know we bloggers like to stay on the Internets and ensure never having to talk to anyone, but there’s no substitute for this kind of real-life neighbor-to-neighbor contact.  They also sweeten the pot by adding a 3-month free subscription to the local paper, which the papers are all too happy to give them.  This is the kind of thing Democrats all over the state should be doing on a weekly basis, not just around elections.  You can get more informaiton at the link.

• There is strong support at the grassroots for a 58-county strategy, and every single delegate reading this needs to add their endorsement to that issue and make sure the Resolutions Committee is flooded with people supporting it.

• The SD-19 race is not going to be a walkover for Republicans, even though it’s currently held by Tom McClintock.  I met Jim Dantona at the meeting, and hope to do a longer piece on his chances later.  He ran for County Supervisor in Simi Valley last time out, easily the most Republican city in the region, and garnered 48% of the vote in a district that is something like +30 Republican registration.  We may have parity in registration for this Senate district by the time this race comes around in 2008, and Dantona appears to be running.  Keep this one on the radar screen.

• Another great success story was relayed by Henry Vandemire, chair of the Computer and Internet Caucus and head of the Big Bear Lake Democratic Club.  Big Bear is also 2/1 Republican, and yet they managed to get 3 Democrats on the City Council for the first time in as long as anyone can remember.  And they did it entirely through civic action, visibility and hard work.

There are opportunities for the party to grow, and there would be even more if the Party leaders fully commit to a 58-county strategy and strengthen the efforts of these progressive leaders in red counties.  The Party must live up to its commitments of supporting Democrats everywhere.  That means providing the money they promise to candidates, like Ferial Masry in AD-37 and Jill Martinez in CA-24 (that’s very likely to be an open seat next time around).  These two are both running again, and can win if they get even a modicum of support from the state party.

That’s all I’ve got for now.  I invited many of the people at the meeting to start posting on Calitics, hopefully we’ll begin to see Ventura and Santa Barbara better represented here.