There are no Senate seats up in California in 2008, and no statewide offices up for election, so the biggest seats outside of the Presidency will be in the House of Representatives.  While we’re 18 months out, I thought I’d give a snapshot of what races are most inviting for a Democratic pickup.

I’m going to concern myself solely with pickup opportunities, because the only realistic possibility of a GOP pickup is in CA-11, and I’m confident that Jerry McNerney and his grassroots army can handle whatever’s thrown at him, plus he’ll have the power of incumbency and the focus of the CDP.  There may be some retirements that would make things interesting (Lantos, Stark, Woolsey), but those are very blue areas.  So let’s look at the best opportunities to add to the Democratic majority:

1) CA-04 (Doolittle): The Doolittle watch continues, and what is most clear is that the best thing for California Republicans would be for Doolittle to just go away.  Charlie Brown has a $200,000 CoH advantage and the taint of the intensifying Abramoff scandal won’t be as easy to wash off the second time around.  If it’s a fresh challenger and an open seat, Brown will still have a higher name ID, but it would be more difficult.

2) CA-26 (Dreier): Hekebolos has mentioned David Dreier’s fundraising troubles.  Plus, as a member of the GOP Leadership, he can be very much tied to their failures over the years.  And the Partisan Voting Index (PVI) in the district is only +4 Republican, comparable to McNerney’s district, and has been shrinking over the years.  It’s the third-closest PVI district in the entire state, and yet Dreier is anything but a moderate.  Russ Warner ran in the 2006 primary (losing to 2004 candidate Cynthia Matthews, who then raised almost no money for the general) and will be running again, and appears to have the right makeup to pull off this upset.

3) CA-50 (Bilbray): The replacement for the Duke-Stir has not distinguished himself (does Bilbray live in that district yet?), and Howie Klein, at least, is intrigued by the potential candidacy of Michael Wray, a former Busby campaign worker and rocket scientist.  I think he’d have a somewhat better chance than Francine Busby.  This would be tough, but not a hopeless district.

4) CA-24 (Gallegly): Elton Gallegly maintains that he’s running.  He tried to retire in 2006, and then abruptly returned to the race because California election law mandated that his name would appear on the ballot regardless.  He eventually defeated Jill Martinez with 62% of the vote.  The word is that Martinez is running again.  Ventura County Democrats have done an amazing job turning around voter registration numbers in the region of late, adding to hope that this could be winnable even against the incumbent.  The PVI is R+5.

5) CA-42 (Miller): See above.  Not hopeless but tough.  The fact that it’s more Republican than CA-50 is balanced out by the fact that Gary Miller is a thieving scumbag who is under investigation by the feds.  Unlike last year, there will be a candidate, and the race is definitely on the CDP’s radar screen.  If we win this one, it’ll be a very good year.

6) CA-25 (McKeon): Buck McKeon is always a threat to retire, and this is a R+7 PVI, so it’s not impossible.  And this is one of those seats, in northeastern LA and San Bernardino Counties, that we have to start competing in, because the job growth in the inland areas of Southern California are outstripping the coasts. Robert Rodriguez did a decent job here in 2006 (McKeon won 60%-36%).  I hope he runs again.

7) CA-52 (open seat): The only Republican open seat to date, but it’s almost not open at all, because Duncan Hunter is trying to give the seat to his son, also named Duncan Hunter, and he’s likely to be fighting in Iraq during the election.  Kind of hard to compete against someone with that circumstance.

8) CA-45 (Bono): David Roth raised a decent enough amount of money in 2006 to at least make Mary Bono sweat.  The PVI is only R+3.  But it was one of the lowest-turnout races in the entire state.  If we can excite people out in the desert, ya never know.

9) CA-41 (Lewis): The Jerry Lewis investigation has gone cold, but the fact that Debra Yang appears to have been bought off the probe by the law firm representing Lewis means that the scandal might have a different set of legs.  And again, this is a part of Southern California where we need to have a presence; eventually there will be more and more people in this region, and probably more seats.  And the fact that they are likely to be coming from liberal Los Angeles means it’s an opportunity to get some infrastructure going.

10) CA-44 (Calvert): This district has actually less of a PVI (R+6) than CA-25.  And Calvert has some earmark and lobbying problems.  And the guy was caught with a prostitute in his car back in 1993.  So the atmospherics are there.  But Democrats have done little in this district.  His challenger last year raised 8 grand.  Total.  And he STILL got 38% of the vote!  It’s time to give this guy a real challenge.

Realistically, 2 pickups would be a really good tally; 3 would be amazing.  But the goal should be getting some of these incumbents to around 55%.

In the first couple centuries of European warfare following the introduction of gunpowder, giant medieval walls met cannons and explosives.  Eventually, the cannons and sappers would blow a gap in the wall.  Then a group of volunteers, called in the British Army “The Forlorn Hope“, would charge the gap.  Those men almost always died, but their sacrifice was necessary to draw the fire of the defenders and force them to expend their ammunition, so the second wave of attackers could get through the breach.  Survivors, if any, were promoted to officer.

The 50-state, 435-district strategy requires that many Democratic candidates serve as a forlorn hope.  These Democratic candidates ran in heavily Republican districts where they had little to no chance to win.  But they forced the Republicans to spend money and resources simply to retain their seats, were there to take advantage of mistakes or scandal, and helped to build and energize infrastructure in those districts. 

While we’re all celebrating the victory of last Tuesday, let us thank the Democrats’ forlorn hope — they probably won this for us.  In California, at least in the races I’ve been following, that means that I want to thank these candidates and all of their campaign staff and volunteers:

• Charlie Brown, running against John 15% Doolittle in CA-04.
• David Roth, running against Mary Bono in CA-45
• Francine Busby, running again in CA-50 against Brian Bilbray
• Bill Durston, running against Dan Lungren in CA-03
• Jill Martinez, running against Elton Gallegly in CA-24
• Roberto Rodriguez, running against Buck McKeon in CA-25

Thanks to all of you.  You made this victory possible.

(No, thank you… – promoted by SFBrianCL)

Update:  28% of Riverside County votes weren’t counted yet.

The spring is slowly returning to my step, thanks to Webb and Tester.  But David Roth was not elected last Tuesday, and it hurt.

From David Roth
Thank you!

Dear Friends and Supporters,

Thank You. Thank you for the remarkable encouragement as we built the most impressive campaign in Riverside County History. Thank you for the unfailing support as we raised an unprecedented amount of money for a challenger in this District.  And thank you for your hard, hard work as we knocked on literally thousands of doors and made thousands of phone calls — and built a movement based on the need for change.

We made history on Tuesday with the most impressive performance of a challenger in memory in this district, and that is because of the movement we built together. We ran a campaign of integrity & honor — and we are all the better for this remarkable experience.

As I said on Tuesday night — change is hard. But we have started a ball rolling in the 45th Congressional District that cannot be stopped, and will only pick up momentum as the days and months pass.

Our communities will never be the same as a result of this campaign, and you each have been such a big part of that transformation.

Although we took home the silver medal on Tuesday, Anita and I feel only pride in what we accomplished and are so grateful for all your phone calls, e-mails and messages over the past 24 hours.

We still have much work to do together to make sure all the people of this District are well-represented, and rest assured that I will be a part of that work each and every day. As we wrote on the home page of our website after the election, “Our nation needs intelligent leaders. Our nation needs heroes. I hope my campaign has inspired people to raise their expectations of those who have the tremendous honor and awesome responsibility of representing us in Washington. Mary Bono has two more years to rise to the task. We’ll be watching.”

All my best to each of you, and all my greatest thanks for a job well done. Now let us go revel in the fact that the Congress is finally Blue, and that we have ensured that the place we call home is now finally a place where Democrats’ voices can be heard loud and clear.

David

Everything David said is true.  We all knew this was one of the reddest districts, with an entrenched widow of a wildly popular figure.  But with the passion David brought to every town hall and house party, we really believed we could do it.    Roth deserved to win, and we deserved his service.    

We’ll get ’em next time. (**Update, as above:  28% of the votes are uncounted http://www.desertdem…]  Meanwhile, the Democrats of the Desert, the Democratic Women of the Desert, the Stonewall Democrats, the Sun City Democrats, and David and Anita Roth will be right here, working for a better America 24/7.  

From the left:  Arnie, Tim, Sandra, Caitlin, Joe, David, Alivia, Anita, Zach, Amalia, Juan Carlos, Ben, Maggie (yes, Stuart pasted her in), Nikki, (sorry my friend, the name escapes me), and Stuart.  

Which one am I?  None of the above, I had third graders to schlepp to the McCallum for their artistic edification on the morning this was taken.  Besides, I’m anonymous, silly.

A glorious day for David Roth (CA-45th) and our happy throng of Americans to march in the Desert Pride Parade in Palm Springs.  Look who the gay community in Palm Springs is for:

GOTV precinct captains have our orders, the final call lists are getting together, and David, as usual, was talking with the voters all day.  The local paper, The Desert Sun, recapped the candidates in today’s edition.  My home delivered print edition showed both candidates on the front page, with equal space devoted to their respective articles.  Look how the web version formats it.  The panic among the shills and GOP machine is palpable.  GO ROTH!

I was glad to see that Diana Marrero wrote the Mary Bono section, as she is, I believe, based in Washington, and covered Bono without spin in the past.  In fact, The Desert Sun buried one of her articles on Mary Bono.  Roth’s campaign found it on Lexis/Nexis, the print readership got some whitewash hackery for Bono instead:

October 3, 2006 Tuesday
 SECTION: Pg. ARC
 LENGTH: 331 words
 HEADLINE: Foley close to Bonos
 BYLINE: DIANA MARRERO
 DATELINE: WASHINGTON

BODY:
Rep. Mary Bono and her late husband, Sonny, had ties to former lawmaker Mark Foley, who recently resigned from Congress amid scandal.
An avid rock fan, Foley became friends with Sonny Bono after the two joined the ranks of House Republicans in 1994.

But Bono, R-Palm Springs, denied having any personal ties to Foley on Monday, adding that she was shocked to learn the Florida Republican had reportedly sent explicit Internet messages to teenage boys.
Her spokesman, Jason Vasquez, said Bono did not know whether her late husband and Foley had been close.

“The inappropriate conduct by former Rep. Mark Foley is unacceptable and abhorrent,” Bono said in a statement. “Mr. Foley’s actions go against the values and responsibilities upheld by Congress. If he has violated the law, he should be prosecuted.”

In an interview with the Palm Beach Post in 2003, Foley said he had been friends with the couple. He loved the entertainment scene so much that Mary and Sonny Bono began calling him “Hollywood,” he told the Post.
Sonny Bono and Foley formed a Republican Entertainment Industry Task Force to boost ties between Republicans and entertainment industry executives.
When Sonny Bono died eight years ago, Foley was among a group of lawmakers who flew to California for the funeral. Later, Mary Bono sold Foley her late husband’s 1994 Jeep Wrangler.

Before Sonny Bono died, the former singer helped raise campaign cash for Foley. In 1998, the Florida lawmaker gave Mary Bono a $1,000 contribution, for her campaign to succeed her late husband in Congress.

Mary Bono now co-chairs the Recording Arts and Sciences Congressional Caucus, of which Foley was a member. Mary Bono has also worked with Foley on legislation, signing on as a co-sponsor earlier this year on a bill Foley introduced to strengthen Congress’ scrutiny over the sales of ports and other properties to foreign buyers.
—-
Contact reporter Diana Marrero at [email protected].

The Desert Sun blacks out coverage negative to Bono or positive for Roth, doesn’t do much to mask the fact, either.  That sense of Republican entitlement dies hard.  But die it must.

To the polls!  GOTV!

I’m pulling together MapQuest prints of the polling areas, caller lists and schedules, thinking I’d better clean this house if people are actually coming in to drop off data, when what to my bloodshot eyes should appear but some helpful pressure from Josh Marshall:

(November 05, 2006 — 11:51 PM EDT // link)

More and more reports coming in of irate voters calling various House Democratic campaigns complaining about the repeat-call-back robocalls.

In other words, these are the harassing calls paid for by the NRCC made to appear that they’re from the Democratic campaign. And a lot of angry voters are getting fooled by the scam, it seems.

Take this and the tightening polls together and you get one net result: this election is going to be decided on the ground. It’s in the hands of the folks running the get-out-the-vote operations, manning the phone banks, helping people get to the polls. The Republicans are going to do their best to scam their way through this one. So it’s up to the people on the ground to make sure they don’t get away with it. If you’re in the GOTV operation, it’s all up to you.

— Josh Marshall

Put me in, coach.  

( – promoted by SFBrianCL)

From John Chapman’s diary on Daily Kos:

Another Macaca Moment-– Help me publicise this!
by John Chapman
Sat Nov 04, 2006 at 09:14:10 AM PST

A Spanish language newspaper received an email from an employee at KNWZ 1140 AM which shows that Congresswoman Mary Bono approves of the term “Third World Toilet” when describing the city of Coachella.

He has a link to a scanned page from the local weekly, El Informador del Valle Indio

If that email really belongs to Rep. Bono, then she belongs far from public office, just as George “Macaca” Allen does.  What a disgraceful crew.  I posted it on dKos, too.

I had a date with my husband to see Jackson Browne open for Tom Petty last night.  I stood him up for Senator Barbara Boxer, Rep. George Miller and David Roth at the Smoketree Room in the Palm Springs Convention Center.  Photo by Omar Ornelas, The Desert Sun.

They were electrifying.  All Democrats should be as clear and strong as Miller and Boxer are, and thankfully, Roth is one of them.  

(I heard the concert was amazing, too.)  Boxer lives here and votes here now, another boost for Democrats in the 45th.  Senator Boxer was thrilling, a woman of valor, as always.  Rep. Miller had us clapping and stomping, but he’s wary of the evil eye, as we all should be.  David was ebullient (the room was packed), but still dead serious.  We have to outwork them, they all said, because we need David in Washington.  It just feels so good to be a Democrat this week, I believe we will.   Everybody get on the Roth-mobile, we’re about to stun a Republican enclave.  Get David Roth there with your cash here

Crossposted from Daily Kos

Last week, David Roth appeared at Blue America on Firedoglake*, campaigned furiously, and spoke about Iraq and Social Security. “Habeas Shmabeas” McCain came to town for a canned appearance with Bono.  Roth and Bono gave (semi-documented) editorial interviews with The Desert Sun.

Roth wrote an OpEd challenging the pro bono stenography of our local paper, which to its credit, it printed.  Roth’s “Blow Over” video passed 3,000 hits on YouTube.  Roth came close to winning the Blue America ad buy.  Finally, finally, the DCCC added Roth to the Emerging Races list.   Well, OK, then.

Now this: The Desert Sun fired its political reporter for the second time since this race began.  {UPDATE: Correction, its editorial editor this time, political reporter last time}  No proof that this reporter was also deemed insufficiently pro Bono.  But it sure looks that way.  GOP panic is in the desert air tonight.  Want more reasons why?

The candidate statements just came out on “Why The Desert Sun should endorse me.”  (Mary Bono’s is pablum, easily refuted in tomorrow’s diary.  David Roth’s is clear and direct.)  

Powerhouse Democrats are on the way:  Barbara Boxer and George Miller will be here Saturday.  Senator Boxer was one of the first to endorse David Roth, and he was an early pick of her PAC for a Change.  Thank you, ma’am.

Rep. Miller is my hero for his unwavering insistence on human rights in US territories, specifically his ten year battle with the GOP to end human trafficking, forced abortion, and slavery.  Tom Delay, (with whom Mary Bono voted 90% of the time), called the CNMI “the perfect petri dish of capitalism.”  

No amount of beaming California girl imagery can change our Rubberstamp Republican’s true story. Mary Bono votes at the behest of her GOP leadership against Americans.  David Roth lives to serve his country and his fellow citizens.  And everyone’s beginning to know it.  

*Heaps of blessings on Howie Klein’s head, and on Buffalo Girl, and SFBrian, and kid oakland, Jane Hamsher, Dan Walter, and all the good netroots people who followed this race.  

Also today in the Desert Sun:  a front page feature on the YouTube videos for this race.  “Had Enough” lyrics are quoted!  That made my day.  I am so proud of and grateful to the netroots.

Contribute to Democrat David Roth for Congress here.

P.S.  There’s even a blog devoted to plaguing Mary Bono now, though it’s not associated with the campaign.  (I write independently, too, but I’m also a volunteer with the campaign, so I keep it clean.  This blogger clearly feels no similar constraint.  {Update:  Link removed due to recent content.}

Crossposted from Daily Kos