As Carlsbad Dem notes in Quick Hits, State Senator Tom McClintock will speak at a news conference in Placer County Tuesday morning to discuss the Congressional race in CA-04. And the indications are he will be jumping into the race. He’s already announced an exploratory committee, and he’s told his supporters that “polling shows me in a very powerful position to win the Republican nomination” against former State Senator Rico Oller and former Congressman Doug Ose. Eric Egland has already announced that he would drop out and support McClintock in the event that he announces.
Today in the Sacramento Bee, McClintock dismissed criticism that he would be seen as carpetbagging in the 4th District, which is roughly 600 miles from his home in Thousand Oaks. He claims that he rented for three years in Rocklin, which makes it all better. Charlie Brown’s campaign manager got in a really choice quote:
Former state lawmaker Rico Oller, who lives outside the district in San Andreas, quickly announced that he would run in the Republican primary. So did Sacramento resident Doug Ose, a former three-term GOP congressman from the neighboring 3rd District […]
The outsiders’ aspirations are assailed by the campaign of Democrat Charlie Brown, a district resident and retired Air Force lieutenant colonel who narrowly lost to Doolittle in 2006.
“Charlie Brown raised his kids in the district,” said Brown’s spokesman, Todd Stenhouse. “They went to Roseville public schools. There are certain values you get for living in the district for 17 years.”
He attacked the District 4 wannabes as part of “some kind of ‘American Idol’ talent search” fueled “by party designation and the fact that it’s an open seat.”
I don’t think the field of carpetbaggers will clear for McClintock. Rico Oller was reportedly John Doolittle’s handpicked choice to succeed him, and Doug Ose has already announced a half-million dollar ad blitz in the event of a McClintock candidacy. Meanwhile Charlie Brown continues to raise money and will not have to spend a dime in the primary.
Here’s what the state of the race will be after June 3. The three carpetbaggers will knock each other around for three months, and the winner will come out with around 40% support among Republicans and no money to speak of. They’ll have to raise a substantial amount in a hurry, and there’s little expectation of help from the struggling national campaign committee for Republicans. Charlie Brown will have a large war chest and roots in the district. And there’s those Presidential coattails. The peculiarities of this race say to me that the winner of that knock-down drag-out fight on the Republican side is by no means assured of the general election win.