Well, it is time for New Year’s predictions.  This is an opportunity to promote and provoke discussion and not an effort to tout my own seriously limited political prognostication skills.

Iowa Caucuses.  On the National level, I predict that John Edwards will either win the Iowa Caucuses or will come in a close second.  On the positive side, Edwards has a strong grass-roots organization across the 99 counties of Iowa, especially in the rural counties where the vote is weighted.  Edwards also has strong support from Iowa labor which is well-versed in getting-out their vote.  Also, the polls are showing upward movement on Edwards part. and downwards pressure on Clinton and Obama, though Clinton seems to have stemmed the tide.

Hillary Clinton has the endorsement of the Des Moines Register and is so set on preventing Barack Obama from doing well in Iowa, that when she is faced with elimination at the caucuses, her people will encourage her caucus goers to throw their support to Edwards.  Obama is relying on college students especially to turn-out the vote.  Unfortunately for him, this means that a 20-something has to debate between staying home on winter break and partying with friends and intimates versus returning to freezing cold Iowa to walk precincts and to work.  My guess is this is a no-brainer for a college student.  Also, with the Bhutto assassination, foreign policy comes to the fore, and this is Obama’s area of weakness.  The last two Presidents elected with little to no foreign policy experience?  Pres. Jimmy Carter and Pres. George W. Bush.  Carter has only shown foreign policy expertise during his only term in office when stipulating that morality be a central concept when using diplomacy while Bush has yet to show anything approximating foreign policy accumen.  I am afraid that Obama sees relations between Chicago, IL and Gary, IN as a foreign policy issues.  I do not think that the American people are ready to again provide on-the-job training re foreign policy.

Prediction:  John Edwards finishes first, Hillary Clinton finishes second, Barack Obama finishes third in the Iowas caucuses.

(xposted from mydsert.com as bluepslmspringsboyz)

More insightful predictions below the flip…

New Hampshire Primary.  This is a quick hop, skip, and a jump from Iowa.  After the Iowa caucuses, the pressure will begin to build on Obama to withdraw from the race so the anybody-but-Hillary people can coallesce behing one candidate, Edwards.  Obama will be damaged going into the NH primary due to his less-than-expected showing in Iowa.  Free media coverage about Edwards’ upset in Iowa and Hillary’s strong showing will overwhelm Obama’s news-framingg apparutus.  Clinton has long had a lead in NH.

Prediction:  Clinton wins NH primary with Edwards a close second and Obama finishes third.

Prediction:  Edwards wins the South Carolina primary and Clinton wins the Nevada caucuses.

Prediction:  Clinton, Edwards, and Obama all do well during the February 5 primaries and Clinton wins the California primary handily.

Prediction:  Clinton, Edwards, and Obama head into the Denver Democratic National Convention and it becomes a brokered convention.  Obama forces join Edwards forces to prevent Clinton from winning the nomination.  John Edwards is named Democratic nominee.  Edwards names Bill Richardson as his running mate.

Prediction:  Edwards/Richardson wins Presidential election handily, carrying such typically Republican states as Florida, North Carolina, Arkansas, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico.

Prediction:  Edwards names Sen. Joe Biden as Secretary of State.

Prediction:  Edwards immediately suspends all Bush executive orders and demands a review of each.  Edwards overturns most of the orders, especially the ones encouraging violating the U.S. Constitution.

Prediction:  Edwards immediately orders a meeting of the Joint Chiefs of Staff to discuss how to effectively and immediately withdraw from the occupation of Iraq without further unnecessary bloodshed.

Prediction:  Supporters of the Democratic party and the Edwards/Richardson ticket in the business community drive the stock market to new highs following its victory in November 2008.  

Prediction:  Edwards begins a series of investigations into the illegal activities of Pres. Bush, Vice-President Cheney, Attorney General Alberto Gonzalez, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, and others.

Prediction:  Edwards delivers several Republican miscreants to officials at The Hague for the Iraq War Crimes Tribunal.  Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, Rice, Powell, Gates, and others endure lengthy trials and then are found guilty of crimes against humanity.  Bush and Cheney servie time in prison for their crimes against the people of Iraq and of the U.S.

Prediction:  The U.S. economy under the mismanagement of the Bush Administration enters a recession with a second consecutive month of negative employment growth.  The California housing market drags the National housing market under.  The Bush recession in addition to the Iraqi occupation quagmire dooms the GOP in the 2008 elections.

Prediction:  The CA 80th Assembly District sees Gary Jeandron as the Republican nominee and Greg Pettis as the Democratic nominee.  Jeandron is dogged by the school scandals where the State Board of Education threatends to sanction the Palm Springs Unified School District due to its poor academic performance.  Jeandron attempts to distance himself from his Board of Trustees membership to avoid guilt by assocation.  But his lack of leadership on the Board becomes a major issues.  Jeandron also opposses SB 777, the State bill to protect all students from discrimination, harassment, and bullying in the schools.  People in the West Valley, even the Desert Sun, decry Jeandron’s regressive policy position and turn against his candidacy.  Immigration becomes a major issues during the Presidential campaign and Mexican-American voters see Jeandron as a jack-booted supporter of the Minutemen.  The Desert Sun endorses Jeandron for CA 80th AD, but to no avail.  West Valley voters, Mexican-Americans across the district, especially the Imperial Valley, and the 13,000 Democratic majority help to recapture the seat for Pettis.

Prediction:  The Desert Sun publisher finally realizes that the transition of the West Valley and the East Valley to solidly Democratic dooms its thoughtless support of the Republican party, and the Desert Sun begins to make serious efforts to reform its news coverage and editorial page.  The Desert Sun actually begins to follow its mandate to independently hold Coachella Valley governments accountable for decimating the environment, for blocking families from adequate healthcare, and and for the lack of economic development with good-paying jobs.

Prediction:  Bonnie Garcia gets her chance for private sessions with the Governor.  The scandal is that no one cares any longer.

Prediction:  Mary Bono Mack is revealed to have used the Homeland Security act for political purposes and the U.S. Attorney’s office begins an investigation.

Prediction:  The Democratic-controlled Palm Springs City Council develops a plan to make Palm Springs the cultural hub for the Coachella Valley.  Plans for a Native-American museum, Hispanic museum, Jewish museum, Gay and Lesbian Museum and others are formulated.  Plans for the West Valley campus of the College of the Desert are finalized for Palm Springs.  Other major educational institutions follow suit.  More linen-service restaurants are developed along Palm Canyon, Indian Canyon and Taququitz Canyon Drives.

What are your thoughts?  What are your preferences?  

December 20, 2007 – Palm Springs Village Fest Voter Registration and Candidate Information Tabling at Palm Canyon & Arenas, Palm Springs, CA, Thursday nights from 6:00 p.m. – 10:00 p.m. (Adult beverages enjoyed thereafter at the local pubs).

A chilly desert night became a cold desert night while proud, progressive, Democrats joined helped throngs of locals, visitors, and prospective voters understand the shift of the Coachella Valley from red to purple with blue in the offing.

The Democratic clubs were represented as usual with Desert Stonewall Democrats (DSD) staffing the tables thanks to George Zander, President of DSD, Bob Silverman, Treasurer of DSD, and Randy. Re full disclosure, BluePalmSpringsBoyz iz a member of DSD.  Eleanor Jackson staffed another table for the Democrats of the Desert.

More details about Palm Springs Village Fest Voter Registration and Democratic Presidential Candidate Tabling below the flip…

Gene Stillwell helped out at the Voter Registration and Candidate Information tabling for the John Edwards for President campaign. Stillwell is an activist with the John Edwards for President campaign and is the Captain of the Coachella Valley for John Edwards One Corps Chapter. Stillwell discussed aspects of the Edwards campaign and his expectations for the January 3, 2008 Iowa Democratic Caucuses.

Rob Simmons also made a visit to the Voter Registration and Candidate Information tabling. Simmons is a member of the Palm Springs Airport Commission and is an activist with the Barack Obama for President campaign. Simmons discussed the fact that the week was a good one for the John Edwards for President campaign given his upswing in the Iowa polls.

David Hunsicker, an announced candidate for the CA 45th Congressional District to replace Mary Bono, absentee Congresswoman, R-CA, discussed his congressional campaign and recent progress towards the party nomination.

Proud progressive Democrats discussed the recent announcement that the Coachella Valley Unified School District was at risk for state takeover due to the continued inability to meet academic standards. Consensus was that this would ultimately hurt the candidacy Victor Emanuel Perez, Vice-President of the CSUSD Board of Trustees, and who is a candidate for the CA 80th Assembly District to replace the termed-out State Assemblywoman Bonnie Garcia (R-CA). Activists also discussed the fact that the State may levy sanctions against the Palm Springs Unified School District and its Board of Trustees, including Gary Jeandron, candidate for the Republican nomination for the CA 80th Assembly District. Seems that in one fell swoop, the State Department of Education may have affected the candidacies of Perez and Jeandron and may have determined both the Democratic and the Republican primary races for the CA 80th AD. (re full disclosure, BlueBeaumontBoyz is a supporter of Greg Pettis, Mayor Pro-Tem of Cathedral City and candidate for the 80th AD).

Back to Village Fest. Tracy Turner, Vets for Peace, helped stir the discussion concerning Mary Bono’s (R-CA) support for Pres. Bush’s failed Iraq occupation policies. He discussed the Vets for Peace plans for an uncoming holiday vigil. More on anti-occupation efforts as information becomes available.

Stillwell, Bob Morris, and yours truly, staffed the John Edwards for President table. We distributed position papers from the John Edwards for President campaign, provided campaign buttons and bumper stickers, signed up volunteers for the Edwards for President Campaign, and solicited voters to register to vote. We discussed Edward’s increasingly strong standing in the Iowa caucus polls. Of particular interest was the decision of Barack Obama to begin attacking Edwards in Iowa and New Hampshire, a sign of desperation. In addition, many hold that given Edwards strength in the rural counties, the weighting of the caucus results towards the rural counties, the presumed absence from Iowa of Obama’s college student voluteers and voters due to the holiday break, and Clinton’s probable tactical decision to throw support to Edwards in an attempt to short-circuit Obama’s campaign, Edwards should have a good night during the Iowa caucuses. Join representatives from Desert Stonewall Democrats, the Greg Pettis for 80th Assembly District, and the Edwards, Clinton, and Obama campaigns at Look Patio Bar and Restaurant in Palm Springs on January 3, 2008, to follow the Iowa Caucuses results on several big screen televisions.

Other Democratic Party activists staffed tables for the Hillary Clinton campaign (Wayne) and the Barack Obama campaign (Hunsicker, Simmons).

We registered seven voters last night, including additional changes of party affiliation. Moderate and progressive Republicans continue to express their distaste for the callous disregard for the truth of the Bush Administration, the failing occupation effort, the regressive social policies, and the drain on the Federal treasury as they funnel funds to their cronies in big business, especially to the oil and gas, insurance, defense, and pharmaceutical industies. Now Independents and Republicans are voting with their feet by moving quickly to the Democratic Party!

Zander, Silverman, Turner, Morris, and yours truly attended the Unofficial Drinking Liberally (UODL) after-party at Bongo Johnny’s! Ever celebrating the Coachella Valley and Palm Springs turning deeper shades of purple and blue! But, still, beware the dying beast.

(Xposted at www.mydesert.com as BluePalmSpringsBoyz)

I just received this Press Release from Equality California regarding an effort of the Alliance Defense Fund (ADF) and the Advocates for Faith and Freedom (AFF) to prevent the enforcement of the Students Civil Rights Act (SB 777) that protects students from discrimination, harassment, and bullying in publicly-funded schools.

As a member of the Palm Springs Unified School District board of directors whose leadership is now in question due to the possiblity that the PSUSD and the school board may face sanctions due to their inability to meet academic standards, Gary Jeandron, must make his stand known regarding the enforcement of SB 777 and regarding discrimination, harassment and bullying of students.

Jeandron is also a declared candidate for the Republican nomination for the CA 80th Assembly District.  His website indicates that as a member of the School Board of Directors, Jeandron supervises a district with 22,000 students and an annual budget of $191 million.  Unfortunately, he did not use his position as a member of the Board to help students achieve academic standards or was unable to influence the Board in order to implement any plan that he formulated.  Now, the pressure is on Jeandron to indicate where he stands regarding SB 777 and its implementation.

AFF’s website states: “WHEN YOU PUT ON YOUR JESUS GLASSES, YOU CAN SEE THE TRUTH!”  The AFF is a non-profit law firm whose goal is ‘protecting our religious liberty in the courts.”  In other words, AFF’s intent is to help to implement a theocratic state where religion, their religion, dictates school policy.  Implicit in AFF’s policy statement is also the fact that they want their religious liberty protected and not the religious liberty of those who have differing faiths.  Great, faith-based law now.

The ADF is another so-called Christian organization that purports to defend Religious Freedom, Sanctity of Human Life, and Family Values.  Again, clearly a reference to what they perceive to be religious freedom, sanctity of human life, and family values.  They presume that only their view on these issues is the correct one and should be the prevailing one.  I thought that the religious culture wars ended centuries ago in Europe!

So, will Jeandron appeal to his radical right base and support the efforts of the AFF and the ADF and their attempts to develop a theocratic state based on their views of so-called Christian principles or will Jeandron support the right of students at every grade level to attend school and to live their lives without discrimination, harassment, and bullying?  Will Jeandron take a leadership stance that protects elementary, middle, and secondary school students from discrimination, harassment, and bullying because of perceived or actual sexual orientation.

Is it a family value that an elementary school student should continue to suffer discrimination because someone perceives that he or she might be gay or lesbian in the schools?  This is not my family value or that of a majority of Palm Springs residents.  Is it a family value that a middle school student should continue to suffer harassment because he or she is gay or lesbian?  That is not my family value and it is not the family value of most Palm Springs residents.  Is it a family value that a high school student is prevented from doing well academically because he or she is bullied at school and in the school yard because he or she is gay?  That is not my family or community value. What are Jeandron’s family values and are they diametrically opposed to those of most Palm Springs residents?  Does Jeandron believe that students ought to be able to study and to achieve academically without a hostile environment?

Seems like AFF and ADF fall into the category of bullies.  I wonder what the members were like on the school playground.  Just sayin’.

What follows if the Press Release from Equality California (EQCA) and the Gay-Straight Student Alliance Network (GSA):

Equality California and GSA Network Move to Intervene in Lawsuit that Challenges Student Civil Rights Act, California Nondiscrimination Statutes

SAN DIEGO – Equality California and the Gay-Straight Alliance Network are seeking to intervene in a lawsuit filed by anti-gay organizations that would prevent enforcement of California statutes protecting students from discrimination, harassment and bullying in publicly-funded schools.

EQCA and the GSA Network today filed a motion to intervene in federal district court in San Diego to defend the California statutes that prohibit discrimination and harassment in publically-funded schools, including the newly-enacted Student Civil Rights Act (SB 777). EQCA was the official sponsor of SB 777, and both organizations actively supported the law. The two organizations are represented by the National Center for Lesbian Rights, Lambda Legal, the Transgender Law Center, the law firm Sheppard Mullin Richter & Hampton, LLP and the Law Office of David C. Codell.

“By enacting the Student Civil Rights Act, the Legislature and Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger sent a clear message that California will not tolerate discrimination in our schools,” said EQCA Executive Director Geoff Kors. “This law protects all youth in our public schools. It helps prevent harassment and discrimination so students can learn free from threats and physical violence.”

The Student Civil Rights Act, authored by Sen. Sheila Kuehl, D-Santa Monica, reinforces existing California laws that prohibit discrimination in publicly-funded schools and activities, including discrimination based on religion, race, disability, gender and sexual orientation. California law has prohibited discrimination in public education on these bases including sexual orientation and gender – for years. SB 777 did not change the categories of discrimination prohibited by law, but merely updated the Education Code to clearly reflect current law so school administrators and teachers know their responsibilities to protect students without having to cross-reference other sections of state law.

“We’re intervening in this lawsuit because our student members advocated for SB 777 and are eager to defend it,” said GSA Network Executive Director Carolyn Laub. “Thousands of our members have endured daily harassment at school based on their sexual orientation or gender identity. It’s a shame there are adults who don’t think all students deserve to have a safe place to learn.”

According to the 2001 California Healthy Kids Survey, nearly 30 percent of California youth in grades seven to 11 report experiencing harassment or bullying based on their actual or perceived race, ethnicity, religion, disability, gender or sexual orientation.

“This law protects all students, plain and simple, irrespective of their race, religion, sexual orientation or gender identity,” said Lambda Legal Senior Staff Attorney Brian Chase. “With 200,000 of California’s school children every year finding themselves victims of harassment or violence, the need for this law is beyond argument.”

“Every student has the right to be safe at school,” said NCLR Legal Director Shannon Minter. “SB 777 simply makes this clear. The organizations bringing this suit are wasting taxpayers’ money and seeking to undermine common sense protections for all California students,” Minter said.

“The Transgender Law Center is proud of our Legislature for passing a bill that protects all of California’s students,” said Transgender Law Center Legal Director Kristina Wertz. “Education is dependant upon safe and constructive learning environments for all young people. All youth deserve to be treated with dignity and respect.”

California’s Legislature passed SB 777 in September and Gov. Schwarzenegger signed the bill into law on October 12.

The lawsuit challenging SB 777 was filed by lawyers for Advocates for Faith and Freedom and the Alliance Defense Fund last month in federal district court in San Diego.

(Xposted from mydesert.com.  Re full disclosure, BlueBeaumontBoyz is a supporter of Greg Pettis for the CA 80th Assembly District.

Although the Coachella Valley Unified School District (CVUSD) tops the list of California school districts facing state takeover, according to The Desert Sun, 98 districts statewide – including the Palm Springs Unified School District (PSUSD) – face sanctions because of lagging student achievement.

Interestingly, a Repugnant candidate for the CA 80th Assembly District to replace the termed-out Bonnie Garcia, is a board member of the PSUSD.  Gary Jeandron, is a board member of the PSUSD.  His website reads: Gary Jeandron, The Choice for Good Education.  Included in his list of endorsements are the now-discredited Arthur Block, Former PSUSD Board Member, Mike McCabe, Former PSUSD Board Member, and William Diedrich, Former PSUSD Superintendant.  Should we then laugh or cry.

Where was Jeandron himself during this developing crisis?  What has he or has he not contributed to the failure of the PSUSD to meet student achievement goals?  It seems that this is a collosal failure of leadership on Jeandron’s part.  Just sayin’.