It looks like Barack Obama will take at least a 24-point victory in California, and a 7-point win nationwide, and around 364 electoral votes in becoming the 44th President of the United States of America.

I want to focus on California and this tremendous disconnect we’re all feeling between the joy of the national moment and the indifference for the local one.  But that can wait for a minute.  Let’s consider what we’ve done here, and more important, what we must do.

Sometime this month, there’s going to be a day when Obama gets a briefing that would turn anyone’s hair white.  The extent to which this country has been fucked up by eight years of misrule is still not known to us.  Republicans lost because they failed to produce anything substantive for the country, and indeed degraded much of it.  And it’s going to be tossed on Obama to clean up.  And he won’t get any help from conservatives, who consider it their duty to fight this guy tooth and nail, the country be damned.  They will obstruct as they have been obstructing, they think it’s a principled stand to let greedy realtors stay greedy and allow corporations to destroy the planet and reap profit.

The question then will be what Obama does when he comes out of that briefing room.  Will he rise to the historical moment?  Or will he offer a measured agenda that fails to meet the needs of the American people?  I think he has an army behind him of supporters who have worked their communities, met neighbors, and forged a grassroots movement unlike few in American politics.  Will he put them to work?  America may begin to be liked again globally.  Will he leverage it?

This will play out pretty quickly over the next several months.  But I also want to focus on the enormity of this moment, with an ethnic minority leading a nation of immigrants, a man who looks like a new image of America leading America, a man of the world in a nation where the world comes together, rejecting fear, rejecting anxiousness, and proud to lead.  Here’s the best example I can find of this phenomenon, a shocking statement on where we’ve come from and where we’re going:

Gertrude Baines’ 114-year-old fingers wrapped lightly over the ballpoint pen as she bubbled in No. 18 on her ballot Tuesday. Her mouth curled up in a smile. A laugh escaped. The deed was done.

A daughter of former slaves, Baines had just voted for a black man to be president of the United States. “What’s his name? I can’t say it,” she said shyly afterward. Those who helped her fill out the absentee ballot at a convalescent facility west of USC chimed in: “Barack Obama.”

Baines is the world’s oldest person of African descent, according to the Gerontology Research Group, which validates claims of extreme old age. She is the third-oldest person in the world, and the second-oldest in the United States after Edna Parker of Indiana, who is 115.

When Baines was born, Grover Cleveland was president and the U.S. flag had 44 stars. She grew up in Georgia during a time when black people were prevented from voting, discriminated against and subject to violent racism. In her lifetime, she has seen women gain the right to vote, and drastic changes to federal voting laws and to the Constitution — and now, this.

“No, I didn’t never think I’d live this long.” she said.

Yes, that’s a big deal.  

I’ll have a much larger roundup later.  But it looks to me like there was a significant undervote in the election.  So far, 10.04 million votes have been counted in the Presidential race.  Yet on Prop. 8 we have about 9.9 million votes counted.  The difference there is 79,000 votes.  But that’s the smallest discrepancy.  Most of the other statewide ballot measures had undervotes of around 600,000-800,000 votes.  And there are maybe 1 million votes yet to be counted, so this spread could be much higher.

And if you look at the Congressional and state legislature ballots, the spread is just as high.

A lot of people stopped at the top, probably because they didn’t have enough information and didn’t feel comfortable about voting.

It is sadly typical of the knuckle-draggers in the California Republican Party that they picked today to file a lawsuit over Obama’s travel to Hawaii to visit Mrs. Dunham for the last time.  The RNC jumped on this lawsuit filing today as well.

Turns out she passed away today.  Obama took time off the campaign trail in the final weeks to say his last goodbyes.  Unfortunately she could not make it to Election Day.

What a classy bunch over at the CRP offices.

RIP Madelyn Dunham.

…I should also note that the Nevada State Director of the Obama campaign died from a massive heart attack this morning at the age of just 44.  Much of my volunteer efforts for Obama supported Nevada.  This is also a tragic loss.

In a story that Hal Ginsberg broke yesterday morning on KRXA 540 AM the Monterey County Republicans sent out an email comparing Barack Obama to Adolf Hitler. The email, sent to their entire list, is basically a long rant against and addressed to “Barack Hussein Obama” but toward the end descends into some nasty territory:

Because some of these people are frightened about the future, the economy, and their financial security … and you are preying on their fears with empty promises … and because some (especially our young people) are consumed by your wonderful style and promises for ‘change’ like the Germans who voted for Adolf Hitler in 1932. The greed/envy by Germans in 1932 kept them from recognizing Hitler for who he was. They loved his style. Greed and envy are keeping many Americans from recognizing you … your style has camouflaged your dishonesty … but many of us see you for who you really are … and we will not stop exposing who you are every day, forever if it is necessary. [Ellipsis in original]

The response from Monterey County Democrats was swift:

Vinz Koller, executive director of the county Democratic Party, said he was shocked that local Republicans distributed “such despicable hate mail.”

He said the local GOP should “set the record straight.”

“They have to stand up for what it’s saying or repudiate it,” he said.

Koller said he personally reviews every e-mail distributed by the local Democratic Party to ensure against any light-speed faux pas.

(Which I can vouch for, since I write many of those emails he reviews.)

The local media has been deeply critical as well, with the Monterey Herald weighing in with this editorial:

Local party officials immediately climbed out of the muck to repudiate the piece and apologize, right?

Not exactly.

In a news release, the party disavowed the Hitler comparison but acknowledged that it had sent the piece out, in its entirety, because it was interesting and “might incite conversation.”

However, the release went on, “This sort of inflammatory language is neither condoned nor encouraged by our party.”

Except, that is, when this sort of inflammatory language is, in fact, condoned, encouraged and even distributed by the party.

And they’re calling him dishonest.

What happened here is obvious. The true face of the Republican Party came out and had a look around, a local radio host caught it and called them on it, and suddenly the local Republican officials felt the need to backpedal and try to deny to the public that their party’s base is full of people who think like that. We’ve seen it at McCain/Palin rallies around the country and from other Republican Party organizations around the state. Brandon Gesicki and his party can try and distance themselves from it all they like, but the truth is out there.

So the latest poll on Prop. 8 has come out from the PPIC, showing the No side still ahead, albeit with a narrower lead than the last time PPIC was in the field.

A majority of Californians still oppose a constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage, but the margin is narrowing so notably that the fate of Proposition 8 may hinge on the turnout for the presidential race.

A new poll released late Wednesday by the Public Policy Institute of California shows Prop. 8 losing 52 to 44 percent among likely voters. That eight-point margin has narrowed from the 14-point spread that PPIC polls found in August and September. Just 4 percent of likely voters remain undecided.

“The vote on Proposition 8 could get closer between now and the election, because we know that Californians are evenly divided in general on whether they favor or oppose gay marriage,” said Mark Baldassare, president and CEO of the PPIC.

There should be a Field Poll on this next week.  But I think it’ll confirm what we see here – a close race that either side can take.  The polling guru Nate Silver of 538 waded into this today.

Both the PPIC and SurveyUSA polls have Barack Obama leading by large (20+ point) margins, so I’m not sure that opponents of the measure can count on some sort of turnout surge above and beyond what is already reflected in the polls. There are evidently fair numbers of Obama/’Yes on 8′ tickets, especially among the state’s black and Latino populations.

On the one hand, there have been suggestions that there is something of ‘Bradley Effect’ on polling on gay marriage bans, and that such measures tend to overperform their polls, although a more recent analysis refutes this suggestion.

On the other hand, because ballot measures are confusing, it is usually better to be on the ‘No’ side of them … people tend to vote ‘no’ on things that they don’t understand. In this case, that gives an advantage to the marriage equality folks. (It may even be the case that some voters vote ‘no’, thinking that they’re voting no to gay marriage, when in fact the wording of the resolution is such that a ‘no’ vote protects gay marriage).

I’d peg the ‘no’ side as about a 55/45 favorite, but not more than that.

Sounds pretty accurate to me.  So what can turn the tide in this race at this late date?  Well, there are the human interest stories like this ex-mayor of Folsom coming out and opposing Prop. 8 in an emotional display.  I think putting a face on whose rights would be eliminated can be powerful.  There is also value in putting a spotlight on the extremism and basic indecency coming from the Yes side.

Standing there as the “Yes on 8” rally outside Oakland’s Foothill Missionary Baptist Church began to wind down today, I noticed a gentleman in the crowd approach an elderly woman who was holding a “Gay marriage = legal perversion” sign. I eavesdropped – hey, that’s my job – as he told her he agreed with her sign completely, but he urged her to ditch it and just use a “Yes on 8” sign instead because her homemade sign’s sentiment might turn off some voters.

They’re trying to hide their wingnuts, but they’re pretty ubiquitous.  And this story seems to me to be a good one to push, considering that one of the key arguments of the Yes side concerns classroom indoctrination.

A Salinas High School teacher who distributed “Yes on Proposition 8” literature to her students last week has been asked to refrain from doing so by administrators […]

The literature that was passed out to students says it is important to protect marriage as an institution between a man and a woman.

The one-page statement also says it is critical to vote yes on Proposition 8, saying its failure would eventually force the state to approve “polygamy, polymory, incest, group and other ‘creative’ arrangements for marriage.”

Think of the children!

But a more controversial idea, expressed by Andrew Sullivan, is that Barack Obama should get involved in this race.  Obama has already expressed his opposition to Prop. 8, but Sullivan argues that he should do more.

As expected, one reason Proposition 8, stripping gay couples of marriage equality, is still viable in California is because of strong African-American support. Black Californians back the anti-gay measure by a margin of 20 points, 58 – 38, in the SUSA poll. No other ethnic group comes close to the level of opposition and black turnout is likely to be very high next month.

All this makes it vital, in my opinion, that Barack Obama strongly and unequivocally oppose Proposition 8 in California, rather than keeping mainly quiet as he has done so far. We need him to make an ad opposing it.  This is a core test of whether gay Americans should back Obama as enthusiastically as they have in the last month. If he does not stand up for gay couples now, why should we believe he will when he is in office? And if black Americans are the critical bloc that helps kill civil rights for gays, that will not help deepen Obama’s governing coalition. It could tear it apart.

I think Sen. Obama is focused on winning a different election right now.  Still, even a small measure, like sending out a fundraising appeal to his California list, could speak volumes.  And as he’s already on the record, it’s not like the McCain campaign couldn’t already point to the issue if they so chose.

What do you think?

They’re not just economic royalists and Yacht Tax Loophole lovers anymore, they have graduated to out and out eliminationist status:

Sacramento County Republican leaders Tuesday took down offensive material on their official party Web site that sought to link Sen. Barack Obama to Osama bin Laden and encouraged people to “Waterboard Barack Obama” – material that offended even state GOP leaders.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who has pushed the party to try to broaden its appeal, took issue with the site. “In the governor’s view, it’s completely and totally inappropriate,” said Julie Soderlund, a Schwarzenegger spokeswoman […]

Taking credit for the site (sacramentorepublicans.org) and its content was county party chairman Craig MacGlashan – husband of Sacramento County Supervisor Roberta MacGlashan.

The Bee asked MacGlashan about the content after seeking his reaction to hate-filled graffiti that was spray-painted over an Obama display on a fence at Fair Oaks Boulevard and Garfield Avenue.

In recent weeks, MacGlashan, an attorney, joined local Democratic party officials in condemning vandalism to political displays.

The vandalism to the Obama display appeared to have been done overnight Monday. A racial epithet, profanity, “KKK” and the words “white power” were clearly visible from the roadway. Six of the nine fence panels were defaced.

“What you are describing to me is not free speech, it’s vandalism. We don’t condone it,” MacGlashan said.

But he defended his Web site. “I’m aware of the content,” he said. “Some people find it offensive, others do not. I cannot comment on how people interpret things.”

Republicans have been taught for 30 years that the Presidency is their divine right and any Democrat who accedes to the office must be illegitimate.  Compounding this is the fact that this next President is a black man.  The hatred is welling up from everywhere and the resultant anger will make the Clinton Years look like the Era of Good Feeling.

Alternatively, the Sacramento GOP might have gone with “Waterboard Obama” just to follow the lead of their current President’s explicit approval of torture.

We haven’t written much about the Presidential race here lately because California is largely out of reach – the FiveThirtyEight composite projects a 16-point win for Obama, and even the Stockton Record is endorsing Obama for President.  Nevertheless, Vets for Freedom and Pete Wilson are wasting $2.2 million dollars on an ad campaign trumpeting the success of the surge.  Way to gauge the public mood, guys.  By the way, the California Nurses Association is firing back with a vicious ad about John McCain, and they have the sense to run it in swing states where it might matter.

Which brings us to tonight’s VP debate.  I wrote a little debate preview over at my site.  My take – watch out for the hissy fit!  Watch out for Drudge running with some manufactured slight and all the networks going into 24-hour “Biden disrespected Palin” mode and Lynne Cheney walking out and saying “This is a baaaad man!”

Anyway, I’ll be trying to sort all of this out tonight with Brad Friedman of BradBlog, who’s guest-hosting a special “VP Debate” edition of the Mike Malloy Show immediately following the Biden-Palin matchup.  Also appearing:

MARCY WHEELER of Emptywheel

MARC “ARMED LIBERAL” DANZIGER of Winds Of Change

PAMELA LEAVEY of The Democratic Daily, and;

PATRICK FREY of Patterico

Check your local listings for radio stations in your area.  You can also find a live stream here.

Former Los Angeles Mayor (and Republican) Dick Riordan attended a fundraiser for Democratic nominee Barack Obama for president. You can check the video here (h/t CA Faultline).

Riordan was the “post-partisan” Republican candidate of 2002, and he polled really well against incumbent Gov. Davis.  The Davis team reached into the Republican primary, and in the end Riordan was defeated for the nomination by Bill Simon. I’m sure the GOP voters in California will hardly be shocked after tagging him as a “RINO”.

However, this does speak to McCain’s loss of the moderate vote.  Riordan was able to win in LA, despite the strong Democratic tilt.  While LA itself won’t be at all determinative for the general election, the “independent” vote will be important. Sure, McCain did something to consolidate his base with the Palin pick, but now that the bloom is falling off that rose, where will he turn?