Now Doug Ose is alleging illegal coordination between Tom McClintock and a 501(c)(4) group headed by poster boy for Republican losers in the state:

A California-based group and other local officials filed a Federal Election Commission (FEC) complaint Monday regarding the alleged ties between an ex-aide to Rep. Richard Pombo (R-Calif.) and state Sen. Tom McClintock (R).

McClintock and former Rep. Doug Ose (R-Calif.) are in a bitter primary battle to face off against Democrat Charlie Brown this fall for retiring Rep. John Doolittle’s (R-Calif.) seat.

At issue is the role of Steve Ding – an ex-McClintock consultant and former chief of staff for Pombo – and The Partnership for America, a 501(c)4 advocacy group headed by Pombo.

McClatchy recently reported that Pombo’s group is organizing a $660,000 independent campaign in the 4th congressional district.

Whoever comes out of the primary is going to be tainted by multiple smears, and flat broke.  McClintock and Ose are both willing to risk that because they think the 4th District is automatically Republican, and they’re underestimating the strength of Charlie Brown.

At their peril.

You can read on for McClintock’s ties to Pombo and various Indian gaming groups.

Getting this one in under the wire.  On the last day of April, with just over a month to go until the June primaries, and six months to go until Election Day, there’s a lot going on all over the state in the Congressional races.  Of the 19 seats in California currently held by Republicans, 17 will be contested in the fall, and some strongly so.  And we now have a full 34 Democrats with the election of Jackie Speier early in the month, and only one of them is a serious challenge.  We also have the first quarter of 2008 fundraising numbers, which will raise some eyebrows.  You can track these races yourself with the 2008 Race Tracker wiki.

A note: I’m mainly getting my numbers on cash-on-hand competitiveness from the Swing State Project.  Fundraising information comes from the FEC.

Here we go…

DEMOCRATIC SEATS

1. CA-11. Incumbent: Jerry McNerney.  Main challenger: Dean Andal.  Cook number: R+3.  % Dem turnout in the Presidential primary: 53.7%.  DCCC defended.  Well, we’re seeing today the San Jose Mercury News reporting that this race is a “pure tossup.”  I don’t know where they’re getting that from.  There’s no question it’ll be competitive, but I look at the metric of fundraising in the first quarter, and I see that Andal, who is supposed to be the number one challenger for Republicans this cycle, couldn’t manage to raise more than $90,000.  That’s not really the numbers of a formidable opponent.  He trails McNerney in cash-on-hand by a 2-1 margin and will need significant outside expenditure support to win.  He’s getting some of that, but the DCCC isn’t abandoning McNerney either, already putting together their Radical Andal site, designed to paint the challenger as an extremist in the pocket of corporate lobbyists.  I’m sure they’ll bring up these ties to Don Young’s PAC, arguably the most corrupt member of Congress there is.  Both sides are headed door to door in the district, and McNerney is picking up a nice issue with the “Helping Our Veterans Keep Their Homes Act of 2008.”  The district is turning quite blue, and I like McNerney’s chances to hold the seat.

REPUBLICAN SEATS

I’m going to do three tiers in setting apart the top seats where we have challenges to Republican incumbents.

First Tier

1. CA-04.  Last month: 1.  Open seat.  Dem. challenger: Charlie Brown.  Repub. challengers: Doug Ose, Tom McClintock.  PVI #: R+11.  % Dem turnout in primary: 44.7.  DCCC targeted.  Charlie Brown is the John McCain of this Congressional cycle.  He’s sitting back and reaching voters while his opponents bruise and batter each other.  The differences are that Brown is a better candidate and he has a bigger money advantage.  But he must be sitting back and laughing right now.  Doug Ose has gone after Tom McClintock drawing welfare from the state of California in the form of per diem payments.  McClintock called Ose a liberal Democrat.  Most of the headlines in the race have headlines like McClintock, Ose Attack Each Other.  Neither of them are from the district – McClintock won’t even be able to vote for himself in the primary – and in the meantime, lifelong resident Charlie Brown is making things happen.  He’s mobilizing volunteers in district offices.  He’s continuing to donate campaign funds to groups that provide support from veterans.  And he’s drawing on important support, like this message from area veterans.

Last week, something unprecedented in our country’s history happened here in Roseville. While politicians in both parties used the Iraq War Anniversary for pontificating and armchair quarterbacking, a local candidate for office (himself a 26-year vet with a son going back for his fifth rotation in Iraq) made good on a pledge to donate 5% of money raised in his congressional campaign to non profit organizations helping veterans and families in need. He gave away $17,500 last Thursday – just a down payment […]

As veterans, we would hope that the voters of District Four understand that tough talk by career politicians usually masks the coward within. Ose and McClintock are birds of a feather, flocking together.

We are soldiers. We believe in keeping promises. We believe in leading by example. We believe that patriotism trumps partisanship, action speaks louder than words, and we know, first hand what it takes to defend America. And for all of these reasons and more, we are proudly supporting Retired Lt. Col. Charlie Brown for Congress.

Powerful stuff.  And another reason you shouldn’t believe the hype that this district is hopeless – Charlie Brown is ready to win.

2. CA-26.  Last month: 2.  Incumbent: David Dreier.  Challenger: Russ Warner.  PVI #: R+4.  % Dem. turnout: 50.2.  DCCC targeted.  On the financial front, Warner came close to raising as much as Dreier in the 1st quarter ($136,000 to $110,000), but Dreier still has a big well of cash to draw from.  So the key for Warner is to find and exploit areas of weakness.  One of them is health care.  Warner vowed to forego the Congressional health care package until his constituents are fully covered – a very smart tactic that forces Dreier to confront the issue.  He also used the anxiety around the housing crisis to note that Dreier took $12,000 in contributions from members of Countrywide Financial while voting against aid for homeowners.  This is particularly salient given that Countrywide was basically looking past lying on applications in order to drive people who couldn’t afford it into risky loans.  For his part, Dreier is trying to pin high gas prices on Democrats, when he’s voted time and again against reining in record oil company profits and removing their subsidies.  Warner is running a pretty smart campaign thus far, and clearly Dreier knows he’s in for a fight.

3. CA-50.  Last month: 3.  Incumbent: Brian Bilbray.  Challengers: Nick Leibham, Cheryl Ede.  PVI #: R+5.  % Dem. turnout: 50.8.  DCCC targeted.  I like Nick Leibham’s motto at the top of his website: “I am running for Congress because I want to be proud of my government again.”  Local op-ed columnists think he might indeed have reason to be proud come November – Logan Jenkins think the race isn’t separated by more than a few points.  Leibham had decent fundraising in Q1 and is only a couple hundred thousand dollars behind Brian Bilbray in cash-on-hand.  We know that Bilbray will try to make this a single-issue race on immigration and I say let him.  It’s getting him headlines in the district like Bilbray strikes out on the Constitution.  Cheryl Ede is running a strong grassroots campaign and endorsed the Responsible Plan to end the war in Iraq.  If there’s one beef I have with Leibham it’s an unwillingness to be bold and run his campaign on contrasting policies.  Hopefully he’ll learn this lesson.

Second Tier

4. CA-45.  Last month: 4.  Incumbent: Mary Bono Mack.  Challengers: Paul Clay, David Hunsicker, Julie Bornstein.  PVI #: R+3.  % Dem. turnout: 51.3.  Julie Bornstein, former Assemblywoman and affordable housing expert, got into this campaign late but she was still able to raise around $30,000 in a matter of weeks.  Add to that some money from prior election accounts and she’s already within a couple hundred thousand dollars in cash on hand of Mary Bono Mack, whose fundraising has been anemic this year.  I don’t think she’s taking this race seriously, but Bornstein is rounding up all the key endorsements, from the Senators Boxer and Feinstein, the CDP, labor, et al., and she’s going to run a strong race.  She does need a website – if she has one, I can’t find it (UPDATE: via soyinkafan in comments, here it is!).  Paul Clay and David Hunsicker are also running.

5. CA-03.  Last month: 6.  Incumbent: Dan Lungren.  Challenger: Bill Durston. PVI #: R+7. % Dem turnout: 51.8.  It should have raised eyebrows throughout the country when Fourthbranch Dick Cheney came out from his undisclosed location to appear at a fundraiser for Dan Lungren.  Cheney doesn’t visit districts where the Democrat doesn’t have a shot, and this was WAY early for someone in Washington to be sounding the alarm button.  Maybe they noticed that Lungren only raised around $100,000 in the first quarter, nearly matched by Bill Durston’s $75,000.  Durston was quick to respond to the Cheney fundraiser, too.

Dr. Bill Durston, Lungren’s Democratic opponent for House of Representatives in California’s 3rd Congressional District, states, “The fact that Dan Lungren would have Dick Cheney as his special honored guest at a fundraiser is one more demonstration of the fact that Lungren is in virtual lock step with the Bush/Cheney Administration.”

It’s the old Cheney/Bush double bind; they help raise money, but most voters don’t want to see you and Darth Cheney or W. in the same room.  With more favorable numbers headed Durston’s way, this race continues to get more and more competitive.

6. CA-46.  Last month: 5.  Incumbent: Dana Rohrabacher.  Challenger: Debbie Cook (Responsible Plan endorser). PVI #: R+6.  % Dem. turnout: 47.2.  This is amazing.  Debbie Cook outraised Dana Rohrabacher in the first quarter of 2008.  Cook didn’t even enter the race until mid-January, and yet she won the fundraising battle.  Either Rohrabacher isn’t paying attention or people are tired of his act.  And the cash-poor NRCC isn’t going to be able to pull these candidates out of the fire anymore.  Debbie Cook is opening her first campaign office in Huntington Beach this coming weekend, and she’s going to run a strong race about energy, global warming and the environment.  We’ll see if Rohrabacher can keep up.  It was notable that Rohrabacher attacked the cost of the war in Iraq during the Petraeus/Crocker hearings.  He knows he’s vulnerable.

Third Tier

7. CA-42.  Last month: 8.  Incumbent: Gary Miller.  Challengers: Ron Shepston (Responsible Plan Endorser), Ed Chau, Michael Williamson.  PVI #: R+10.  % Dem. turnout: 44.0.  Disclosure: I do some netroots work for Ron Shepston.  Another amazing number – Ed Chau outraised Gary Miller in Q1.  The numbers are paltry – $39,000 to $36,000 – but it suggests that Miller doesn’t care, isn’t paying attention, or can’t find anyone to give his corrupt ass a buck.  Add all the Democratic challengers up together and Democrats outraised Republicans significantly out here.  And the primary should be interesting.  Ed Chau got labor endorsements but most of his work has been fairly under-the-radar.  Ron Shepston’s grassroots efforts may be able to pull the primary out, and he is starting to raise money.  Shepston has Ambassador Joe Wilson coming out for a fundraiser next month.  Michael Williamson has been quiet other than this attack Web ad hitting Ed Chau for not living in the district.    Gary Miller actually backed Barney Frank’s housing bill, which suggests that the mortgage mess is a REAL problem in the district.  Jonathan Weil at Bloomberg attacked Miller for trying to hide the extent of the mess from the public.

8. CA-52.  Last month: 7.  Open seat.  Repub. challengers: several, including Duncan D. Hunter.  Dem. challengers: Mike Lumpkin, Vicki Butcher.  PVI #: R+9.  % Dem. turnout: 47.2.  Mike Lumpkin has Max Cleland coming in for a fundraiser with him this week, and he raised a decent amount of money last quarter.  Here’s an overview of the race; Lumpkin apparently endorsed removing “half the troops” from Iraq, which seems to me to be a silly idea, but his background as a Navy SEAL and liaison between Congress and the Special Ops Command gives him at least some facility with the region.  This is a tough seat, especially going against what amounts to a legacy candidate.  And Hunter has a lot more money.  Vicki Butcher is a grassroots-oriented candidate who will get her share of votes in the primary.  There was actually a candidate forum in this race yesterday.  Any reports out there?

9. CA-24.  Last month: 9.  Incumbent: Elton Gallegly.  Challengers: Jill Martinez, Mary Pallant (Responsible Plan endorser).  PVI #: R+5.  % Dem. turnout: 50.6.  Marta Jorgensen has quit the race and backed Jill Martinez.  Unfortunately, the primary fight here has turned a little nasty, with Jill Martinez stretching the truth about Mary Pallant’s positions and her own finances.  Neither candidate raised a lot of money last quarter but Martinez claimed she had, despite her bank account being in the red.  Pallant is working the progressive grassroots to win the nomination, winning the endorsements of Democrats.com’s David Swanson and author Norman Solomon.  I’d love to see a true progressive take on Elton Gallegly.  He wants to drill in ANWR.  He’s not that bright.

10. CA-41.  Last month: 11.  Incumbent: Jerry Lewis.  Challengers: Tim Prince, Dr. Rita Ramirez-Dean.  PVI #: R+9.  % Dem. turnout: 46.3.  Jerry Lewis has become the point man on forcing retroactive immunity for the telecom companies back into the House for a vote.  In his speech he assailed trial lawyers for wanting to sue the phone companies, which is funny because at a million dollars his legal defense fund has put several trial lawyers’ kids through college.  Of bigger note here is that Republicans in San Bernardino County now number under 40% and Democrats are within 8,000 voters of retaining the majority.  The district is changing, and we’ll see if Tim Prince or Rita Ramirez-Dean can capitalize.  I do like Rita’s website and use of Web video.

11. CA-44.  Last month: 10.  Incumbent: Ken Calvert.  Challenger: Bill Hedrick (Responsible Plan endorser).  PVI #: R+6.  % Dem. turnout: 49.3.  Bill Hedrick endorsed the Repsonsible Plan this month, which certainly helps raise his profile a bit.  He’s holding fundraisers and trying to make voters aware of his presence headed into the general election.  Ken Calvert is gearing up for re-election by requesting all kinds of porkbarrel projects.

12. CA-25.  Last month: 12.  Incumbent: Buck McKeon.  Challenger: Jacquese Conaway.  PVI #: R+7.  % Dem. turnout: 50.9%.  I threw this in because this is yet another seat where Democratic turnout outpaced Republican turnout in February.  This seat also includes a portion of San Bernardino County (see CA-41).  McKeon has a substantial money advantage.  He, by the way, “wants the victory” in Iraq.  That must be nice, thinking about foreign policy like it’s an NBA playoff game.

13. CA-48.  Last month: 13.  Incumbent: John Campbell.  Challenger: Steve Young.  PVI #: R+8.  % Dem. turnout: 45.1.  I’ll keep including this race because I really like Steve Young.

Yesterday, carpetbaggers Doug Ose, Tom McClintock and Suzanne Jones held their debate for the Republican nomination in CA-04.  Naturally their carpetbaggery was topic #1 at the debate, which seemed to have pretty paltry attendance.  The Bee reported only a few dozen in the audience.

Rep. Doug Ose touted his long ties to the Sacramento region and the 4th Congressional District, even though he never lived there.

Ose wants the voters to believe that living in the area is just the same as living in the district. Riiiight.

State Sen. Tom McClintock, whose Thousand Oaks district is 400 miles away, declared that he is answering the call of local voters for conservative leadership.

McClintock tries to argue that his carpetbaggery is cool because he lived in the district even though he was supposed to be down in So Cal, living in the district he was ostensively supposed to be serving.  It makes you wonder if McClintock will just move his family to DC, like he moved them to Rocklin.  In which case, the voters in the 4th district will be just as SOL as his current constituents.

And upstart GOP candidate Suzanne Jones of Citrus Heights stressed that her community was once part of the 4th District “but the district moved away from me – not me away from the district.”

At least this one makes some sense.  It wasn’t her intention to live outside the district, even though it does make her a carpetbagger too.  More over the flip…

These two paragraphs are really just classic.

McClintock accused Ose of being a champion of pork-barrel “earmarks” during three terms in Congress representing Sacramento’s neighboring 3rd District. Ose depicted McClintock as a career politician helping himself to regular pay raises and legislative financial perks.

But the most critical arguments they appeared to be making to voters had to do with what they were even doing in this race – and congressional district – to begin with.

So what McClintock is saying is that I will represent you in Congress, pick up my salary, max out my benefits, but I won’t bring money back to the district.  Sounds like a good deal for the voters he is trying to woo.  The both of them are just opportunistic serial seat hoppers.  They could care less about the district.  They just want to be Congressmen and are trying to establish residency in the first place that has an open seat.

Charlie Brown does not have to spend time convincing voters why he is in the race.  He has been making his case to the voters for the past 3 years, not the past three weeks, not to mention living in the district with his family for the past 17 years.

The presence of the two highly touted GOP contenders seemed to amuse the spokesman for Democratic candidate Charlie Brown.

“Charlie will be here every day fighting for the people of this district as he has every day living, working and raising his family here for the past 17 years,” said Todd Stenhouse, who appeared at the forum on behalf of Brown, a Roseville resident. “… I also, of course, want to welcome our friends Doug and Tom to the 4th Congressional District.”

Good snark from Todd.  

The contrast between the questions Ose and McClintock are facing are pretty stark from Charlie.  Instead of talking about carpetbaggery, he has been making donations to local veterans charities.  These carpetbaggers had the nerve to question him giving back to his own community.  Pathetic really.

(Up goes the diary from Charlie. We’ll have video from the Calitics interview soon. – promoted by Brian Leubitz)

Yesterday was a powerful press day in CA 04, most notably on the Opinion page of the Auburn Journal.

As all of you know, the treatment afforded American veterans has long been a national disgrace—and like so many of the challenges we face, it’s not a new problem either.   That’s why Charlie is not waiting for January of 2009 to make a difference for America’s veterans–donating 5% of campaign contributions to help those most in in need in our community.

Last week here in CD4, some of our well travelled, career politician opponents actually attacked Charlie for his Promises Kept Veterans Charity Challenge.

The Auburn Journal weighed in with an editorial here.

And then somthing else happened—30 local veterans, including more than a dozen vets of Iraq and Afghanistan submitted a response of their own.  Wanted to share their comments with all of you, below the flip.    

A MESSAGE TO CAREER POLITICIANS FROM ARMED FORCES VETERANS

It’s no secret that career politicians like to talk tough about national security, spout empty slogans, and spend their campaign war chests on mail and TV ads describing their supposed “support for our troops.”

Most haven’t worn the uniform, or fought for our country. They haven’t sent their own children off to war – just other people’s kids. And they haven’t seen the men and women they served with be-come casualties of war long after they returned home.

But we have.

Last week, something unprecedented in our country’s history happened here in Roseville. While politicians in both parties used the Iraq War Anniversary for pontificating and armchair quarterback-ing, a local candidate for office (himself a 26-year vet with a son going back for his fifth rotation in Iraq) made good on a pledge to donate 5% of money raised in his congressional campaign to non profit organizations helping veterans and families in need. He gave away $17,500 last Thursday – just a down payment.

It’s not widely publicized, but community based nonprofits do a lot of heavy lifting in terms of out-reach and service delivery for veterans – and there’s a lot of heavy lifting to be done.

War carries lasting scars that aren’t always visible. 1 in 3 homeless is a veteran – and we don’t come home that way. Veterans are twice as likely to commit suicide, and are at greater risk for sub-stance abuse, family and other problems than their civilian counterparts. Chronically under funded by politicians, the VA is already stretched to its breaking point – and even with recent funding in-creases, will be for decades to come. That’s where community based services, like the ones Charlie Brown is supporting, play the crucial role of filling in the gaps.

Instead of applauding the effort, or matching Charlie with 5% of their own, Doug Ose and Tom McClintock attacked Brown for putting attention and resources towards solving a problem that politi-cians have ignored for generations.

McClintock called the plight of American veterans a “non story.” Ose, who spent the past two years and thousands of his riches defending another career politician named John Doolittle, attacked Brown’s historic pledge as “politically expedient.”

Marine Sergeant and Iraq War Veteran Cody Conway introduced Charlie on Thursday. Cody was injured outside Baghdad, but stayed in the fight. When he got home, he was abandoned by his gov-ernment, and began spiraling towards rock bottom.

Cody will tell you that it was his friends, community based veterans groups, and fellow veterans like Charlie who were willing to listen, really understand, and take action on his behalf that saved his life.

And that’s why today, Cody is a parent, a college student and an officer in one of the nation’s pre-mier campus veteran’s organizations at Sierra College. He’s working to help fellow Iraq War veterans find solutions – veterans like Josh Steward.

Josh Steward’s story began like Cody’s – with a dream of becoming a soldier. After he graduated from Independence High School in Roseville, he enlisted in the Army and became a Paratrooper. He was sent to Iraq, serving as a combat engineer charged with finding and disarming I.E.D.’s (Impro-vised Explosive Devices).

During a training jump with his Airborne Unit back in the states, Josh’s life and career got side-tracked. Something went horribly wrong with his parachute and he hit the ground with a force that literally shattered both of his legs.

Despite a desire to continue serving in any capacity he could, the Army Medically Discharged Josh, but denied him disability compensation. Today, Josh is unable to work, with no money coming in, and wheelchair bound in a home not adapted to his physical needs.

Frustration comes and goes for Josh. His government let him down, but his community and family are the ones working in the trenches every day, to right a terrible wrong, and to prevent Josh from falling through huge cracks in a veterans aftercare system that was grossly unprepared for war.

We won’t let Josh get left behind, but Josh is one of the lucky ones. He’s already lost three mem-bers of his unit in Iraq to suicide.

Josh was there on Thursday too, and those who attended got to hear his story. So were many other veterans, whose stories will never be told, but they should be.

As veterans, we would hope that the voters of District Four understand that tough talk by career politicians usually masks the coward within. Ose and McClintock are birds of a feather, flocking together.

We are soldiers. We believe in keeping promises. We believe in leading by example. We believe that patriotism trumps partisanship, action speaks louder than words, and we know, first hand what it takes to defend America. And for all of these reasons and more, we are proudly supporting Retired Lt. Col. Charlie Brown for Congress.

Rank Name Branch Years Served/Tours City

Sgt Mark Blackwood Usmc 5 years 2 tours Iraq Rocklin

Cpl Scott Bonham Usmc 4 years 1 tour Iraq Rocklin

Cpl Phillip Fulgam Usmc 5 years 2 tours Iraq Rocklin

E-5 Meagan Smith Usn 5 years 2 tours Iraq Granite Bay

Sgt Nathan Yuongman, Usmc 4 years, 2 tours Iraq Grass Valley

Cpl Marshall Eason Usmc 4 years 2 tours Iraq Rancho Cordova

Sgt Rich Cervantes Usmc 4.5 years 3 tours Iraq Roseville

Sgt Douglas Ginther Ang 6 years 1 tour Iraq Rocklin

E-4 Chris Sederquist Usa 4.5 years 2 tours Iraq Lincoln

Sgt. Cody Conway Usmc 5 years 1 tour Iraq Roseville

E-4 Joshua Steward Usa 1 tour Iraq Citrus Heights

Ssgt Mathew Zane Usaf 5 years Afghan Vet Carmichael

E-4 Jessica Miller Usn 4 years 1 tour Gulf Lincoln

E-4 Brain Guardiola Usn 5 years 2 tours Gulf Citrus Heights

E-5 Dayna Scorsone Usn 6.5 years 1 tour Gulf Gold River

E-4 Kevin Miller Usn 4 years 2 tours Gulf Loomis

E-4 Richard Smith Usn 3.5 years active duty Roseville

Lcpl Gary Cerar Usmc 2 years active duty Fair Oaks

Cpl Jamie Mcdonald Usmc 4 years active duty Roseville

Ae3 Timothy Marsh Usn 4.5 years active duty Lincoln

Ssgt Eddie Einst Usaf 7.5 years active duty Roseville

Sra Bryan North Usaf 4 years active Folsom

Wo Christina Holsworth Usmc 10 years active duty Lincoln

Sgt David West Ii Usmc 5 years active duty Sacramento

Msgt Margaret Ervin Usaf 24 years active duty Placerville

Dale Kehoe Usn Vietnam Vet ’66-67 3837 Auburn

Doc Kauffman Usn Vietnam Vet ’69-’70 5224 Carmichael

Welcome back to the California House races roundup for March.  The races are coming into focus, with new challengers entering the fray before the March 7 deadline, and some actual campaigning between candidates (shocking!).  And with the DCCC looking at four races in the state, California will certainly be a battleground in Congress in November.  

We also know with a fair degree of certainty that Jackie Speier will be the next Representative in CA-12, after Lawrence Lessig declined to run.  The initial primary is April 8 and Speier is heavily favored.

So that leaves just one Democratic seat in any degree of question, and I’ve decided to expand to write about 13 Republican-held seats that have varying degrees of challenges.  Overall, Democrats are running in 18 of the 19 seats currently held by Republicans, and 52 of 53 seats overall.  Only Kevin McCarthy in CA-22 (Bakersfield) is uncontested AFAIK.  You can track these races yourself with the 2008 Race Tracker wiki.

A couple notes: I’ve changed the percentage of Democratic turnout in the February 5 primary statistics to reflect the final numbers from the Secretary of State’s office.  As you’ll see, six of the thirteen Republican-held seats mentioned had majority Democratic turnout.  Very encouraging.  Also, I’ve noted where applicable which challengers have endorsed the Responsible Plan to End The War In Iraq.  My hope is that eventually every candidate will do so; it will absolutely help them in their campaigns to show some leadership and offer a comprehensive strategy to end the war and change our conversation around national security.

DEMOCRATIC SEATS

1. CA-11. Incumbent: Jerry McNerney.  Main challenger: Dean Andal.  Cook number: R+3.  % Dem turnout in the Presidential primary: 53.7%.  DCCC defended.  In researching this race, I’ve noticed that Jerry McNerney gets excellent press inside his district.  He’s moved to more comfortable policy areas for him, like renewable energy and the green economy.  And he was pretty bold in standing up to the fearmongers who ran ads in his district against him about the FISA bill.  The NRCC found some coins in the couch and paid for a “Vote McNerney Out” website in support of their challenger Dean Andal.  But the percentage of Democratic turnout in the district reflects the fact that the demographics really have shifted here.  So, good luck, NRCC.

REPUBLICAN SEATS

I’m going to do three tiers in setting apart the top 13 seats where we have challenges to Republican incumbents.

First Tier

1. CA-04.  Last month: 1.  Open seat.  Dem. challenger: Charlie Brown.  Repub. challengers: Doug Ose, Tom McClintock.  PVI #: R+11.  % Dem turnout in primary: 44.7.  DCCC targeted.  This race is really heating up.  The Tom McClintock welfare queen story has legs, and may damage him in his primary fight against former US Rep. Doug Ose.  A guy running as the ultimate rock-ribbed fiscal conservative can’t be seen enriching himself on the public dole.  The Ose-McClintock primary is getting nasty, with McClintock saying things like “He is one of those congressman that has squandered away our rights.”  Meanwhile, Charlie Brown has kept his promises by donating $17,500 to veterans care providers, an event which got great press.  He also took the endorsement of VoteVets PAC and won an online poll with the veterans’ group, yielding $5,000 for his campaign.  CA-04 is most definitely still in play.

2. CA-26.  Last month: 2.  Incumbent: David Dreier.  Challenger: Russ Warner.  PVI #: R+4.  % Dem. turnout: 50.2.  DCCC targeted.  The first real misstep of the campaign from David Dreier came this month, as he misstated his earnings from stock sales (to the tune of $263,000) in financial disclosure reports.  Russ Warner pounced on it, and Dreier tried to make excuses, but it fits into the narrative of him being out of touch with the district.  

Kristin Ponts, campaign manager for Warner, said, “The idea that David Dreier, who has been in Congress for 27 years, wouldn’t know how to fill out a basic financial disclosure form is absurd.”

Warner called the report an example of the “scandal-plagued culture of corruption” in Washington. He said that it was “no surprise given these recent failures to comply with House ethics rules” that Dreier chose to vote against stronger rules being adopted in the House.

The creation of an independent house ethics office was recently approved by a 229-182 vote with opposition from most Republicans.

That’s a fighting Democrat right there.  Dreier also has a Republican primary challenge, though it doesn’t look to be that big a deal.

3. CA-50.  Last month: 3.  Incumbent: Brian Bilbray.  Challengers: Nick Leibham, Cheryl Ede.  PVI #: R+5.  % Dem. turnout: 50.8.  DCCC targeted.  The press is starting to come around in thinking that this is a legitimate race.  Nick Leibham was profiled in an interview by Lucas O’Connor that was pretty revealing.  I liked this:

We win this fight because their platform is old and it’s worn out…The Reagan Revolution…which started really in 1964 with Goldwater’s defeat…it culminated in 1980 and 1994 and the end of the Bush years are a bookend. It’s tired, it’s played out, and it no longer offers up a positive agenda for America. This isn’t just a change election in the sense of Democrats or Republicans.  This is a paradigm shifting election and Democrats can capture that…they’ve got a lot of work to do but we can capture it and I think the pendulum is swinging our way.

Cheryl Ede, who’s been endorsed by Progressive Democrats of America, has a base of support in the district, as evidenced by this account of an Escondido Democratic Club meeting where Leibham’s policy stances were questioned as perhaps being too conservative.  I think it’s great to be having this debate, and having Democrats locally move their candidates to the most representative positions.  That can only help in the fall.

Second Tier

4. CA-45.  Last month: 4.  Incumbent: Mary Bono Mack.  Challengers: Paul Clay, David Hunsicker, Julie Bornstein.  PVI #: R+3.  % Dem. turnout: 51.3.  As seen by the majority Democratic turnout in the primary, this is a district that’s ripe for a takeover.  And I’m intrigued by the prospect of proven electoral winner Julie Bornstein rising to the challenge.  Bono Mack is married to a guy in Florida and lives in Washington.  Bornstein is someone who’s represented the district and can do the same in the Congress.  And her son is currently serving in Iraq, which is undeniably powerful.  She announced her candidacy on the fifth anniversary of the war.  Her area of expertise is affordable housing, which is a sorely needed perspective in Washington, too.  Keep an eye on this race, it could easily go top-tier.

5. CA-46.  Last month: 7.  Incumbent: Dana Rohrabacher.  Challenger: Debbie Cook (Responsible Plan endorser). PVI #: R+6.  % Dem. turnout: 47.2.  This is going to be the most fun race of the cycle, no doubt about it.  Dana Rohrabacher is crazy.  This is well-known.  He spent an hour on the floor of the Congress recently ranting about a secret investigation about the 1993 WTC bombing that sounded like a first draft from an Oliver Stone movie.  His former aide was just sentenced to three years in prison for molesting young boys.  Howie Klein can give you all the background you’d ever need on Rohrabacher.  And this year, we’re actually poised to capitalize on this.  Debbie Cook is the mayor of Huntington Beach, a solid Democrat who has endorsed the Responsible Plan.  The Rohrabacher people are clearly nervous; they’ve been trying to use legal shenanigans to remove “Mayor” from Cook’s designation on the ballot.  This was tossed out of court, but the strategy is to bleed Cook of money and resources and tangle her up in legal machinations.  It’s almost just as telling that Crazy Dana is teaming up with Maxine Waters and calling for a boycott of the Olympic opening ceremonies in Beijing in protest of the crackdown in Tibet.  He’s trying to moderate his nutball stances.  He’s scared.

6. CA-03.  Last month: 5.  Incumbent: Dan Lungren.  Challenger: Bill Durston. PVI #: R+7. % Dem turnout: 51.8.  As I’ve said earlier, this is the most Democratic seat currently held by a Republican.  It had the highest Democratic turnout in February of any Republican-held seat, and it has the narrowest registration advantage, too.  Bill Durston is a physician and a Vietnam combat veteran.  He needs the resources, but a Democrat can win this district, and maybe some of the national money put into the neighboring district of CA-04 will wear off on people over here.  Plus, Debra Bowen’s relentless registration efforts have their best effect in the districts in and around Sacramento, and these days that means more registered Democrats.  This one will be close.

Also, Dr. Durston wrote a song about war.

Third Tier

7. CA-52.  Last month: 6.  Open seat.  Repub. challengers: several, including Duncan D. Hunter.  Dem. challengers: Mike Lumpkin, Vicki Butcher.  PVI #: R+9.  % Dem. turnout: 47.2.  Duncan Hunter is still favored, but Navy SEAL Commander Mike Lumpkin has been good at raising money, and this interview with him shows that he has a decent command of the issues.  Green Beret Jim Hester dropped out to endorse Lumpkin.  Much like in CA-50, Vicki Butcher has been endorsed by PDA, and will offer a nice progressive counter-weight in the primary.  A contested primary can only help a novice candidate like this.  Here’s a not-so-decent story on the race.

8. CA-42.  Last month: 10.  Incumbent: Gary Miller.  Challengers: Ron Shepston (Responsible Plan Endorser), Ed Chau.  PVI #: R+10.  % Dem. turnout: 44.0.  Disclosure: I do some netroots work for Ron Shepston.  You pretty much can’t find Gary Miller anymore, he’s gone so far underground, but Ron Shepston has become more visible of late.  He endorsed the Responsible Plan, and he attacked Gary Miller for a $1.28 million dollar earmark that he placed in the 2005 highway bill, clearly to benefit his biggest campaign contributor.  Ed Chau is also a bit of a mystery, although the LA County Labor Fed endorsed him.  I can’t imagine they’d put money into the primary, however.

9. CA-24.  Last month: NR.  Incumbent: Elton Gallegly.  Challengers: Jill Martinez, Mary Pallant, Marta Jorgensen.  PVI #: R+5.  % Dem. turnout: 50.6.  I decided to add this seat after seeing the Democratic turnout numbers from February.  If the right candidate can raise enough money to be visible, this is a dark horse seat.  Elton Gallegly is your basic rubber stamp Republican, and he flirted with retirement in 2006.  Jill Martinez was the opponent that year, and Mary Pallant, my fellow 41st AD delegate, appears to be putting together a decent organization locally.  PDA has endorsed Pallant, and she penned an op-ed in the Ventura County Star responding to Elton Gallegly’s no new taxes screed in the same paper.

The congressman plays a numbers game with the people’s money, while distorting history and facts. He feigns compassion for the nation’s middle class and poor while protecting tax loopholes for megamillionaires and the well-connected few.

Gallegly’s tax policy is inconsistent and unsound because it is too simplistic and relies upon the discredited notion of supply-side economics. The only thing that trickles down is massive debt to those least able to pay.

I love a strong an unabashed progressive in this district.  Let’s see what happens.  Marta Jorgensen is also running in this district.

10. CA-44.  Last month: 9.  Incumbent: Ken Calvert.  Challenger: Bill Hedrick.  PVI #: R+6.  % Dem. turnout: 49.3.  Bill Hedrick is the only challenger for this seat headed into the primary, as Louis Vandenberg and Rogelio Morales have dropped out.  Ken Calvert’s corruption questions continue to grow, as he has sponsored legislation that would help some business partners back home.  The fact that Democratic and Republican turnout was virtually tied in February shows that there’s an opportunity here.

11. CA-41.  Last month: 8.  Incumbent: Jerry Lewis.  Challengers: Tim Prince, Dr. Rita Ramirez-Dean.  PVI #: R+9.  % Dem. turnout: 46.3.  Jerry Lewis just got a lifeline from the new US Attorney for Los Angeles.  Thomas O’Brien disbanded the public corruption unit that would be investigating Lewis’ corrupt actions on behalf of lobbyists.  Dianne Feinstein is seeking answers on this, but the short answer is that Lewis is probably out of the woods on the indictment front.

12. CA-25.  Last month: NR.  Incumbent: Buck McKeon.  Challenger: Jacquese Conaway.  PVI #: R+7.  % Dem. turnout: 50.9%.  I threw this in because this is yet another seat where Democratic turnout outpaced Republican turnout in February.  I know nothing about Jacquese Conaway other than her candidate website.

13. CA-48.  Last month: NR.  Incumbent: John Campbell.  Challenger: Steve Young.  PVI #: R+8.  % Dem. turnout: 45.1.  I really like Steve Young and the tireless work he’s done to build the party in one of the reddest areas in the entire country.  Visit his site, won’t you?

(Help Charlie meet his goal of $100 for every mile carpetbagger McClintock traveled to the district. – promoted by Julia Rosen)

Charlie Brown, running for Congress in California’s 4th District, needs our help! I just received this email in my inbox, as I’m sure hundreds of you also have. Let’s send Charlie into battle well-armed and prepared for these foreign invaders (quite literally foreign– none of the Republicans running in this race even come from the 4th District) by sending in a donation to the Brown campaign!

For those of you who DON’T know Charlie Brown and have been living under a rock for the last year and a half, here’s a link to his website:

www.charliebrownforcongress.org

Here are a few other links to get you aquainted.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Brown_%28California%29

Lincoln News messenger article

Grass Valley Union article

Charlie has been a tremendous voice for those of us in the 4th District, and he’s been leading by example even from the campaign trail. Charlie is donating 5% of his campaign funds to local charity organizations that service veterans and their families. You can find more information on Charlie’s Veterans Challenge by clicking here.

Dear Friends,

As you know, last week, another career politician from outside the 4th District–Southern California State Senator Tom McClintock–entered the GOP primary to replace Rep. John Doolittle.  

We asked you to help us raise one hundred dollars for every one of the 418 miles separating McClintock’s office in Thousand Oaks with our office in Roseville–between partisan politics as usual and a new standard of leadership in the fourth district.  

So far, you are doing a great job.  Hundreds have already contributed and we are more than halfway to our March 31st goal as of this morning.

Click here to contribute and keep the momentum going.

You may be aware that last week, LA Tom also announced that he wasn’t planning to move into the district until after the election.  That means he won’t even be able to vote in the same races as the people he claims to represent.   McClintock’s arrogant brand of partisan political opportunism exemplifies what’s broken in Washington.

This race was never truly about John Doolittle. It was and is about changing a system that promotes career politicians who care more for personal gain than the common good. John Doolittle, Tom McClintock and Doug Ose are all symptoms of the same partisan problem—birds of a feather, feathering their nests.

And we already know the consequences of representatives who put political partisanship first.  It’s $4.00/gallon gas, and record amounts of oil imported from the middle east.  It’s Americans working harder for less, unprecdented waste of our tax dollars, the stifling of the American innovation, and the exportation of American jobs.  It’s 30 years of inaction on our borders, Al Qaeda growing resurgent in Afghanistan, and more blank checks for no bid contractors and Iraqi politicians.  

Our campaign has been about results, accountability and putting patriotism before partisanship.  That’s why we donate 5% of every dollar we raise to veterans service providers.  That’s why we pitched in to help during the Tahoe fires.  That’s why more than 11,000 of you have donated to this campaign for change.

Please, contribute today to help us put a stop to the kind of politics that cares more about partisan sound bytes, than solving America’s problems.  We can, and we must.

I promise you, every day from now until the next election— we are going to get up early, work all day and keep doing what has made us so successful so far. We are going to unite the people of this district and this nation behind the battle tested vision we need to get America back on track—country comes first.  

Our goal is $41,800 by the FEC Deadline of March 31st.

Click here to help us welcome Tom McClintock to town and send Charlie Brown to Washington. Every dollar counts and now is the time to make your voice heard.

Thank you in advance for your continued support.

Very Sincerely,

Todd A. Stenhouse

Campaign Manager

P.S.  Click here to donate today and help us raise $100 for every mile Senator Tom is going to have to drive to get from Southern California to our district.  And please forward this urgent message to five friends.

As Carlsbad Dem notes in Quick Hits, State Senator Tom McClintock will speak at a news conference in Placer County Tuesday morning to discuss the Congressional race in CA-04.  And the indications are he will be jumping into the race.  He’s already announced an exploratory committee, and he’s told his supporters that “polling shows me in a very powerful position to win the Republican nomination” against former State Senator Rico Oller and former Congressman Doug Ose.  Eric Egland has already announced that he would drop out and support McClintock in the event that he announces.

Today in the Sacramento Bee, McClintock dismissed criticism that he would be seen as carpetbagging in the 4th District, which is roughly 600 miles from his home in Thousand Oaks.  He claims that he rented for three years in Rocklin, which makes it all better.  Charlie Brown’s campaign manager got in a really choice quote:

Former state lawmaker Rico Oller, who lives outside the district in San Andreas, quickly announced that he would run in the Republican primary. So did Sacramento resident Doug Ose, a former three-term GOP congressman from the neighboring 3rd District […]

The outsiders’ aspirations are assailed by the campaign of Democrat Charlie Brown, a district resident and retired Air Force lieutenant colonel who narrowly lost to Doolittle in 2006.

“Charlie Brown raised his kids in the district,” said Brown’s spokesman, Todd Stenhouse. “They went to Roseville public schools. There are certain values you get for living in the district for 17 years.”

He attacked the District 4 wannabes as part of “some kind of ‘American Idol’ talent search” fueled “by party designation and the fact that it’s an open seat.”

I don’t think the field of carpetbaggers will clear for McClintock.  Rico Oller was reportedly John Doolittle’s handpicked choice to succeed him, and Doug Ose has already announced a half-million dollar ad blitz in the event of a McClintock candidacy.  Meanwhile Charlie Brown continues to raise money and will not have to spend a dime in the primary.

Here’s what the state of the race will be after June 3.  The three carpetbaggers will knock each other around for three months, and the winner will come out with around 40% support among Republicans and no money to speak of.  They’ll have to raise a substantial amount in a hurry, and there’s little expectation of help from the struggling national campaign committee for Republicans.  Charlie Brown will have a large war chest and roots in the district.  And there’s those Presidential coattails.  The peculiarities of this race say to me that the winner of that knock-down drag-out fight on the Republican side is by no means assured of the general election win.

Over in CA-03, they have a carpet-bagger representative. Dan Lungren was an OC-area Congressman from 1979-1989, where he was followed by slightly more crazy Dana “the Taliban are good for Afghanistan” Rohrabacher. In 1991, Lungren became the Attorney General, and eventually lost in his bid to become Governor. In 2004, though, Lungren found an open seat in the Sacramento area, and said, hey, I’m going to hop back on that gravy train!

Well, it seems Tom McClintock thinks that sounds gooood.  When I wrote my post from the CRP convention I mentioned that there were quite a few Draft Tom signs there. Well, over at the SacBee they’ve got a photo along with a little glimpse into the crazy that is the CRP.

Republican activists at last weekend’s state party convention distributed “Run, Tom, Run” stickers and displayed a large “Draft Tom” poster for supporters to sign.

Anyway, former Rep. Doug Ose isn’t going to take this lying down. He’s got $500K left in the bank from his CA-03 elections, and plans to use it. Sweet, use it now destroying each other fellas. Let’s grease the way for Charlie Brown!.

I’ve been a really, really bad blogger and have stopped my Congressional House Roundup.  So here’s a mini-one.  I’ve dug up the totals for 2007 fundraising in the top races in the state, and they’re a little interesting.  Here are the numbers from the key races.

CA-11:

Jerry McNerney raised $1.065 million in 2007, has $760,000 cash on hand

Dean Andal raised $535,000, has $471,000 CoH

CA-04:

Charlie Brown raised $506,000, has $383,000 CoH I was looking at Q3 numbers.  Brown has raised $692,000, and has $483,000 CoH.  Big numbers for a non-incumbent.

Eric Egland raised $141,000, has $79,000 CoH

There are no fundraising numbers yet for the new challengers who have entered the race on the Republican side, including former State Sen. Rico Oller and former US Rep. Doug Ose.  By the way, Ose has donated to Doolittle’s legal defense fund, along with Minority Leader John Boehner.  Reformers, all of them!

CA-26:

David Dreier raised $599,000, has $1.96 million CoH

Russ Warner raised $380,000, has $240,000 CoH

Hoyt Hilsman raised $114,000, has $10,550 CoH

Obviously, Dreier is sitting on a goldmine.  

CA-50:

Brian Bilbray raised $419,000, has $262,000 CoH

Nick Leibham raised $211,000, has $188,000 CoH

Very encouraging.

Others to note:

Mary Bono (CA-45) only has a paltry $219,000 CoH.  Her potential opponents Julie Bornstein, David Hunsicker and Paul Clay got in too late to register any money in this quarter (sometimes the FEC shows residual candidates who have run in previous years, so I’m not certain they’re running.)

Mike Lumpkin, the Democrat in CA-52 trying to take Duncan Hunter’s open seat, raised $78,000 in 2007 and has $43,000 CoH.

There’s not much else to write home about here.