Maybe it’s all the endorsements, or that the anti-equality side has thus far been confined to right-wing zealots and religious forces trying to impose their doctrine on the state, but Proposition 8’s chances of passage are getting worse.

Opposition to a California ballot measure to ban same-sex marriage is mounting following Attorney General Jerry Brown’s move to change the language on the initiative, according to a Field Poll released today.

The poll found that just 38 percent of likely voters support the measure, while 55 percent intend to vote no. That compares with 42 percent in support and 51 percent opposed in July.

Brown amended the Proposition 8 summary language after the state Supreme Court’s decision on May 15 to overturn California’s previous ban on same-sex marriage.

The pollsters found the amended language played a role in that growing opposition, especially among the 30 percent of likely voters interviewed who had never heard of Prop. 8.

Those voters were much more likely to oppose the measure when read Brown’s wording (58 percent against it and 30 percent for it) than those in the same category who were read the old version of Prop. 8 (42 percent against and 37 percent for it), according to the Field Poll.

Yes, how dare that Jerry Brown put into print what the initiative would actually do, which is eliminate the right granted by the state for same-sex couples to marry.  The Yes on 8 folks are whining that Brown “interfered” with the election, when actually, words with meaning did.

You can get the internals of the poll here.  The initiative is running weak among DTS voters (56-28 against) and young voters (58-31 against).  Hispanics are against it 51-36, which actually is not as solid as whites (55-39 against).  And the key stat to me is that among divorced or separated voters, Prop. 8 fails 65-33.  That makes perfect sense; those who have lived through a bad marriage have less illusions about how equality would ruin its sanctity.

The way I would view this is the way that California initiative watchers commonly view the “Pro” side of the argument.  You have to start out 55% or higher before the negative ads kick in.  Right now the Yes on 8 folks are outraising the No side 3:2, mostly with out-of-state checks.  They’re going to blanket the state with ads and so we should not let our guard down.

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I simply have not had the time to do a full update of all the Congressional and legislative campaigns.  And sadly, it doesn’t look like that time will be forthcoming soon.  So I think I’ll do mini-updates where possible.

• CA-46: Debbie Cook has been endorsed by DFA (Democracy for America).  Jim Dean, the Chair of DFA, said in a statement, “Debbie Cook has been a grassroots champion for over 20 years and has a proven record of success in the private sector and as a public servant … Debbie Cook is running because she’s a committed advocate and activist who fights for her constituents and delivers results.”

In the past, DFA has been able to move some resources into districts, so we’ll see if they’re going that route in this race.  DFA has also recently endorsed Bill Hedrick (CA-44).

• CA-26: Russ Warner’s campaign is announcing via email that the DCCC named his race as “one to watch.”  That doesn’t mean they’ll get any money, but it puts them in the queue if the race tightens.  Unfortunately, the DCCC has kind of a deliberate style, where they hoard their money for the races they know are toss-ups, and then wait until the very last minute for these emerging races, sometimes beyond the point at which that money can be effective.  I understand the strategy but it wouldn’t be smart from Warner’s perspective to bank on any help from Washington in his race against David Dreier.  He needs his own resources as well as money from California lawmaker’s PACs.

Which reminds me, California Democrats, it’s time to use it or lose it.  We have a number of races where the challenger can win if they have enough resources, and in the seats where an incumbent has token or no opposition and a huge war chest, that money should not be sitting in an account somewhere.  Help our own candidates!  Expect more pressure on this very soon.

• CA-03: It’s kind of fun watching Dan Lungren try to humina-humina his way out of supporting Prop. 8.  He really has no idea what he’s talking about.  It would be bad enough if a citizen of the state had this atrocious an understanding of basic civics, but this guy is not only a US Representative but a former state Attorney General!

• AD-80: The GOP tried to get Manuel Perez’ occupational status as an “educator” thrown off the ballot, but they failed.  Now he has received the endorsement of the highest-ranking law enforcement official in Imperial County, D.A. Gilbert Otero.  Considering that his opponent, Gary Jeandron, is the former police chief of Palm Springs, I’d consider this endorsement to be significant… UPDATE re: CMR, seems that Gary Jeandron supports “traditional marriage.”  In Palm Springs.  Now, so did Bonnie Garcia, but she was able to win enough in Imperial County to offset it.  Jeandron needs the Palm Springs vote to be huge to win.

I think he just lost, if he hadn’t already.

The very interesting aspect of the gay marriage debate out here in California is how corporate America has made their bet.  Companies like PG&E have donated heavily to the “No on 8” side, and now we see Hallmark, about as conservative (not in their politics, but in their style and outlook) a company as you can find, coming out with same-sex marriage cards (just in time for me to get one for a certain couple in a few weeks!):

Most states don’t recognize gay marriage – but now Hallmark does.

The nation’s largest greeting card company is rolling out same-sex wedding cards – featuring two tuxedos, overlapping hearts or intertwined flowers, with best wishes inside. “Two hearts. One promise,” one says […]

The language inside the cards is neutral, with no mention of wedding or marriage, making them also suitable for a commitment ceremony. Hallmark says the move is a response to consumer demand, not any political pressure.

“It’s our goal to be as relevant as possible to as many people as we can,” Hallmark spokeswoman Sarah Gronberg Kolell said.

Apparently they weren’t relevant enough to the American Family Association, which is commencing a protest of the company.  AFA is one of the many hatemongers trying desperately to inspire their troops over Prop. 8.  But I think Hallmark’s decision is far more instructive.

Corporations have balance sheets and shareholders.  They don’t make these kind of decisions frivolously.  They know that history is bending on the side of justice.  They know that equality is on the way.

I think these open threads are working out.  Hope you enjoy them.  Here are a few thoughts.

• This is a week old, but Nick Kristof’s column about Prop. 2 (the farm animal safety measure) is well worth your time.

• It’s still up in the air whether or not we’re going to have Alan Keyes on the California Presidential ballot in November.  There’s a lawsuit between two members of the American Independent Party over who should be their nominee.  It seems to me the very definition of “frivolous,” but as someone who deeply enjoys mocking Alan Keyes I have a dog in this fight, so do the right thing, Sacramento Superior Court!

• The Log Cabin Republicans, who I also like to call “gluttons for punishment,” rolled out their No on 8 campaign last week.  The website is Republicans Against 8.  It’s the libertarian thing to do to get government out of the bedroom, so hopefully they’ll sway some folks.

• This is absolutely revolting and someone needs to go to jail:

For hundreds of homeless people, posing as phony hospital patients provided them a clean bed and cash. For the hospitals that processed them, it meant a full patient-load and a paycheck from the government.

Now some of those allegedly involved in what authorities say was a massive scheme have been charged with billing government programs for millions of dollars in unnecessary health services.

A hospital CEO was arrested Wednesday after federal agents raided three medical centers. City attorney Rocky Delgadillo’s office has also sued the hospitals, saying they used homeless people as “human pawns.”

It’s kind of the flip side of homeless dumping, or who knows, it was run in concert.  Either way, sickening.

• Jerry Lewis is trying to get a bunch of lobbyists to fund his Congressional portrait.  The worst part about this deal is that Jerry Lewis will have a Congressional portrait hanging in our nation’s capital.

Add whatever you wish in the comments.

This report of a national conference call to fight Prop. 8 and marriage equality sounds more like a battle plan than a political strategy session.  All the leading figures of the religious right were there, and the language is undeniably militaristic.  I believe that the best way to counteract the theocratic right is to display them in all their radicalism, so the whole country understands the goals of their movement.  So here ya go:

The primary focus of the call was Proposition 8 in California, described by (Chuck) Colson as “the Armageddon of the culture war.” Many speakers invoked the language of warfare, raising up an army of believers, putting soldiers in the streets, being on the front lines of a battle. Lou Engle actually described a massive rally planned in Qualcomm stadium on November 1 as a “blitzkrieg moment.”

While speaker after speaker spoke of the dire threats same-sex married couples pose to “traditional” marriage, religious freedom, and civilization itself, the overall tone of the call was confidence that victory would be won with God’s help, 40 days of prayer and fasting before the election, teams of intercessors and prayer warriors around the country, and a massive highly organized deployment of volunteers in a systematic voter identification and turnout campaign.

This is not exactly the stuff of democracy, nor is it in any way reflective of a country with a separation of church and state.  What is at work here is a putsch, a desire to seize the instruments of power and subjugate everyone to one belief system.  They mobilize through fear, claiming that the next steps in the fiendish plan are to ban the Bible, legalize polygamy, and “destroy marriage”.  They’re also using supposedly apolitical churches as an illegal communications apparatus:

Ron Luce from Teen Mania ministries and other organizers talked about plans to organize 300,000 youth and their families for an October 1 simulcast, and using them to reach 2.4 million. A representative of the Church Communication Network, a satellite network that has downlink equipment in 500 churches in California, 95 in Arizona, and 321 in Florida, said it would simulcast the youth event free of charge, and would make a satellite dish available “at cost” to churches who don’t yet have one. Said one speaker of the youth organizing, “if we don’t use them, Satan will.”

That is manifestly against the spirit of tax-exempt laws regarding churches – laws which I imagine you’ll see broken many times between now and November.  The free simulcasting and satellite services amount to in-kind donations.

People for the American Way is on this and keeping tabs on the theocratic right.  As I said, forewarned is forearmed – there’s a growing segment of the state and the country who are repulsed by this fundamentalism, this anti-Democratic dominionism.  We have an opportunity this fall to lay bare the innate bigotry of their movement for all to see.

UPDATE:  Another aspect to this is the exhuming once again of far-right theocratic icon Alan Keyes, who’s running for President again – but only in California, as part of the American Independent Party (formed in 1968 by segergationist George Wallace, which is somewhat ironic).  His running mate is Rev. Wiley Drake, the minister who prayed for the death of members of Americans United for Separation of Church and State last year.  The fundies are lining up, packed in two at a time, and all headed to California in lockstep.  It’s going to be crazy out here for the next 95 days.

We spend an inordinate amount of time on the bad of California politics here on the site.  And with a system this dysfunctional, there’s a lot of bad to go around.  But as the budget hostage crisis continues, and state workers don’t know if they’ll be able to afford their bills come Monday, I wanted to at least recognize some of the positive developments around the city and state:

• The Governor signed a bill today banning trans fats in all state restaurants and bakeries by 2011.  Combined with the law signed earlier this week to crack down on the sale of downer cattle in US groceries, and the LA City Council moving forward on a one-year moratorium on new fast-food restaurants in South Los Angeles, this is a good week for food safety, nutrition and public health.

• As mentioned by Shayera, the Los Angeles City Council voted to ban plastic bags by 2010, if the state does not mandate a $0.25 charge for every bag by then.  Additionally on the environmental front, there’s also the statewide green building code adopted by the California Building Standards Commission, and another passage for the third year in a row, of a port container fee which would be invested in fighting pollution (Hopefully this time the Governor will sign it).  This too is good.

• Leland Wong was convicted yesterday on 14 counts of public corruption and bribery while he was LA City Commissioner.  Accountability is good.

• In Orange County, the Laguna Beach City Council, which is majority Republican, became one of the first to publicly oppose Prop. 8, the hate amendment.  Saying no to hate is good.

• Unfortunately, not everything is good.  Foreclosure rates are skyrocketing nationwide, more than doubling in the second quarter.  In one incredible example, almost 1 in 20 homes in Merced have been lost to foreclosure, the highest rate in America.  Wow.  Not good.

• A couple more good things: PDLA is kicking off a Legislative Education Project and assigning progressive scores to individual Congressmembers (The first, David Dreier, has a 0).  They’re also going after Lou Dobbs for his criticism of their deeply unserious notion that health care is a human right.

What set off Dobbs’ eruption? Apparently it was his correspondent reporting that PDA “is urging the Democratic Party to adopt a plank at the party’s convention in Denver, guaranteeing accessible health care for all.”

You can help us push back against Dobbs and other media demagogues.

Within a day, you’ll be receiving a follow-up email from Norman Solomon, co-chair of PDA’s “Healthcare NOT Warfare” campaign, about our efforts to bring the principle of guaranteed health care for all into the heart of the Democratic Convention in Denver. And ways you can participate throughout the country.

For now, I want to ask you to click here and help PDA talk back to the media attacks now underway against us.

They should take the lead on Dobbs the way Color of Change took the lead on Fox News.

A lot of people are talking today about Sen. Obama’s stance against Prop. 8; it’s a recommended diary on Daily Kos.  We had this on Calitics two days ago and nobody noticed.  The Sacramento Bee reports on it and suddenly it’s on everybody’s lips.

I don’t begrudge the Bee writing about the issue; it’s newsworthy, and the result of a letter read to the Alice B. Toklas Democratic Club, not some secret.  I’m glad they picked it up.  But I’m very disturbed by the fact that progressive media is not supported to the point of being ignored, but when a dead-tree source goes with the same information it becomes a top story.  I expect that out of the traditional media, but not the blogosphere.  There is no question that Brian was the first person anywhere to report on Sen. Obama’s letter to the club.  And I can tell you that I did at least some behind-the-scenes work to promote the scoop to progressive media and blogosphere leaders.  Didn’t work.

I don’t care that the Bee didn’t report that Calitics was the first source to break this; would have been nice, but not totally necessary.  But could bloggers at least note that we had this two days before the traditional media?  If we aren’t self-reinforcing we’re never going to get anywhere.