Tag Archives: initiatives

Report: Term Limits Initiative Fails To Gather Enough Signatures, Will Miss February Ballot

The Flash Report had a Drudge-like breaking news item up last night that the term limits initiative scheduled for the February ballot was going to miss the number of required signatures needed to qualify.  We’ve been calling around, and apparently this is pretty accurate.  It’s totally unconfirmed, and the Secretary of State can go to a hand count to see if they reached the requisite number.  But right now, it’s not looking good; a LOT of the signatures have been invalidated.

I’m honestly astonished.  I thought you could accidentally gather enough signatures to get something on the ballot in California.  I’m not sure where the ball was dropped here.

They can try again to make this term limits shift for the June ballot.  But if they can’t qualify for February, many current incumbents whose length of service would stretch due to the provisions of the initiative would end up termed out.  This includes Speaker Nuñez and President Pro Tem Perata.  I’d like to get a full list of the implications of this, but that won’t happen right now.  (ortcutt?)

This will make it easier for challengers to decide to run, so we’ll see the June primary process take shape quickly if this works out this way.  Quite a turn of events.

(The other question is, what happens to all the money horded for this initiative?  I know a certain dirty trick that needs fighting…)


[UPDATE]- by Julia Frank in the comments links to an excellent Cap Weekly article on this.  There is no definitive word on if there will be enough signatures.  The authenticity checks are not complete, however there is a significant risk that the initiative may have enough votes to qualify but that it would be verified too late to make it on the ballot.  Really, read the piece and you will see there are a lot of moving pieces.

Anyone who is used to watching returns on this state should know that never say anything until LA’s numbers are in…

Lots In The Air On Healthcare Reform

Seems like a great deal of things are happening on the health care front, but I don’t think any of them point to significant reform in this legislative session.  In fact, people are trying to scramble for alternatives.

Dan Weintraub has a feature on Fabian Nuñez’ attempts to get through to the Governor that the other side of the aisle is simply not interested in compromise.  As Julia noted the other day, Nuñez will put the Governor’s plan up for a vote tomorrow, and nobody will vote for it.

The speaker says he intends to package the governor’s plan as legislation and present it to the Assembly, where it will surely die. In fact, Núñez said, his own vote for the bill, which he will cast as a “courtesy,” will likely be the only support the governor’s plan receives.

“I’m going to take him from the stratosphere, and I am going to ground him,” Núñez told me in an interview in his Capitol office. “He needs a little grounding. Nobody likes his plan.”

I don’t know how the Governor is going to respond to this, but clearly observers aren’t thinking it will end in sweetness and light.  They’re making other plans.  over…

State Sen. Darrell Steinberg is floating a plan to cover all children as a fallback reform should nothing else materialize.

“We ought to achieve comprehensive health care reform, but our first priority must be children,” Sen. Darrell Steinberg, D-Sacramento, said Wednesday at a Capitol news conference to tout children’s health care.

Steinberg’s Senate Bill 32 and a companion bill, Assembly Bill 1 by Assemblyman John Laird, D-Santa Cruz, would expand the children’s Healthy Families Program by increasing the household income limit from $51,625 for a family of four, or 250 percent of the federal poverty level, to $61,950, or 300 percent.

But there’s currently no funding in the legislation, which would require the state to spend $225 million more annually to cover the estimated 800,000 children without insurance in California.

Any legislation would have to be approved before the Legislature adjourns Sept. 14, unless Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger calls a special session.

“If our bills become the vehicle (for health care changes), they will be amended to include a funding source to either fund the full amount or at least a significant start for year one,” Steinberg said.

Obviously, there’s no chance of this happening without S-CHIP expansion, which the Governor is trying to get the President to authorize.  Children’s healthcare is cheap and saves the state money in the long run, along with being simply the right thing to do.  But it’s a small step, not the big change that Californians want.  The Governor is opposed to a piecemeal approach, for the record, but could he really veto children’s health care?

To that end, a couple unlikely partners are looking to the ballot box for an eventual answer.

In 2004, the California Restaurant Association led the successful effort to repeal SB 2, which would have required employers to provide health insurance to their employees. On the other side of that multimillion-dollar battle was the California Medical Association and organized labor.

Labor and the CMA are both heavily engaged in the ongoing Capitol negotiations, while business groups have rejected both the Democrats’ and the governor’s proposal as untenable. But the restaurants’ proposal may serve as a starting point for negotiations for a possible November 2008 ballot initiative, just in case a deal cannot be hammered out this year.

“We are not ready to give up on current legislative proposals, but are interested in hearing what CRA has to say,” said CMA’s top lobbyist, Dustin Corcoran. “As a longtime proponent of universal health care, CMA welcomes any serious effort to reform health care and looks forward to further discussions.”

But Jot Condie, president of the California Restaurant Association, said his members are “moving forward as if the Legislature has already concluded its business.” Condie said, “It appears the Legislature is incapable of producing needed reform, so we decided to look to the initiative process.”

I don’t know whether this is serious or just an attempt to put pressure on the Legislature to get something done.  The CRA is floating an 1% increase in the sales tax to cover the cost of health care, that’s really all the details that have come out.

This might be just chaos before everything actually fits into place and a deal is brokered.  I’m not seeing that, however.

Poll shows work needed to save Californias electoral vote

by Randy Bayne
x-posted at The Bayne of Blog

A new Field Poll was released today showing most Californians are in favor of an initiative to divide the electoral vote along congressional district lines. Currently, along with 47 other states, California awards all of its 55 electoral votes to the statewide winner.

Under a proposal, which could be on the June 2008 ballot, California’s electoral votes would be awarded by congressional district. Had this been in place in ’04, George W. Bush would have received 22 of California’s electoral votes to John Kerry’s 33. Bush could have lost Ohio and other state and still have won the election.

While this plan might make sense if all 50 states adopted it, it makes no sense to dilute California’s vote by joining Maine and Nebraska, the only states that award electoral votes in this manner. Between the two of them, Maine and Nebraska account for only nine electoral votes – hardly enough to sway most presidential elections.

According to the Field Poll,

The results show that voters initially support the idea of allocating California’s EVs on a district level by a 47% to 35% margin.

The results change slightly when voters are begin to understand what the effect would be.

After voters are told of the political implications of the change, opinions become somewhat more divided, with those backing a changeover to a district-by-district allocation method outnumbering those favoring winner-take-all by a 49% to 42% margin. Opinions are highly partisan, with 70% of Republicans endorsing the changeover to a district-by-district allocation method. Democrats and non-partisans, by contrast, favor keeping the current winner-take-all approach but by narrower five-to-four margins.

There are two ways to view this poll.

“It shows that without much (campaigning) … there’s a gut-level notion that this is the fair way of doing things,” said Kevin Eckery, a spokesman for Californians for Equal Representation, a committee recently set up to push the measure. [SFGate.com]

And, as I said earlier, it might be a “fair way of doing things” if everyone, all 50 states did it the same way.

On the other side, Democrats, myself included, see it as a grab for at least some of California’s coveted electoral votes. And we are well aware of the Republican party’s penchant for stealing elections.

“Republicans are in disarray nationally right now. And in California, they aren’t even treading water. They’ll do everything they can to steal the White House in 2008. Our job is to make sure that we take it seriously and do everything we can to kill it,” said Roger Salazar, a spokesman for the California Democratic Party. [SFGate.com]

August 19, 2007 Blog Roundup

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Budgets are Moral
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August 15, 2007 Blog Roundup

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August 14, 2007 Blog Roundup

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Here Come The Initiatives

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What’s The Matter With California

My diary from Sunday, Getting That Next Vote On the Budget, got a lot of discussion, although a bit to my surprise, not the discussion I was expecting.

My goal was to get people to discuss how best to get the state’s annual budget passed. What we got, instead, was a pretty passionate debate about the wisdom of using the state constitution’s recall mechanism as a tactic for doing this.

By the end of the discussion, I realized that there’s a meta-discussion to be had about this: why is it that some of us feel that this was about the only tactic available, and why some of us felt that certain tactics should not be used.  This is not that different an argument from what you hear about impeachment of Bush, Cheney and others.  Since the budget needs to pass out annually, this is indeed odd.

I think the underlying question (meta-question for you meta-people) is how our system of government in California — our constitution, in the broad, British sense of the word — is so completely busted.  And that the actual legal framework — the 100+ page document that makes up California’s written constitution — has become unworkable.

What do we do about this?

I make this distinction between our unwritten constitution and the actual document because the American constitutional tradition makes the question of how we govern ourselves clearer, by assuming that the system of government can be specified in a document, and less clear, because it assumes that what is not found in the document is not truly part of the system.

But this use of written constitutions was an American innovation, made by the colonial governments as they broke from British rule.  They broke with the British definition of a constitution, as it had been developed in the previous 200 years of English history, as Parliament gradually mastered the ultimate in Unitary Executives, the Tudor and Stewart monarchs.

Here’s the definition that English theorists (who our Founders knew very well) came up with:

A contrast is sometimes made between written and unwritten constitutions. Britain, it is said, has an unwritten constitution. But the distinction is overdrawn. Britain is unusual in that there is no single document which can be called the formal constitution. The constitution in Britain is scattered through hundreds of Acts of Parliament and judicial rulings. But the description of Britain as having an unwritten constitution usually focuses on another attribute-the importance of conventions. Some of Britain’s most important constitutional rules are constitutional conventions. There is a convention that the monarch acts on the advice of his or her ministers: there is no direct legal compulsion on the monarch to do this, but he or she invariably does. By convention, a government clearly defeated on a vote of confidence in the House of Commons either resigns or holds a general election.

To understand what’s gone wrong with our system in California, this broader view of a constitution is essential, since it leads us to ask: who actually rules, who are the stakeholders, and what restraints, both legal and customary, are we operating under.  The written constitution exists in that context, but is only a piece of it.

A good document can help, and current document limits the perogatives of both the executive and the legislature, and not necessarily in favor of the people.  I’d argue strongly, for example, that corporations and their lobbyists are as much of our system of government — our constitution in the large — as the nobility was in England.

The great constitutional trend in England and Britain was taking first the monarchy, and then, the nobility, and making them subordinate to popular will.

The great constitutional trend in the United States since after US Civil War has been to take the legislatures and the executives, and increasingly make them subordinate to the will of a new nobility, one based upon corporate assets and corporate institutions.

I think that this is the underlying problem with the California Constitution: corporate money has used the initiative system to gradually strangle the ability of the legislature to represent popular will, starting with Proposition 13 in 1978, and continuing to limits like this 2/3 requirement for passing a budget today.  This weakness of the legislature cannot be fixed within the current constitutional framework.  We will need to radically change the framework to fix the mess we are in.

What kind of change do we need here? It’s clear that the reforms of 100 years ago, from during the Progressive Era, have run their course, and no longer serve either the purposes or even the constituencies that Hiram Johnston and others intended.  These reforms, which were intended to master, even then, corporate interests like the great railroads, have now been co-opted by the railroad executive’s spiritual heirs, our modern, 21st century robber barons.

How do we best understand this problem?  How do we best fix it?
 

Former Assemblyman wants to change public pension system

by Randy Bayne
X-posted from The Bayne of Blog

“It’s not fair that people in the private sector are working well into their 60s and 70s to pay for extravagant pensions for public employees who can retire at 50 or 55,” said [Keith] Richman, a former Republican Assemblyman from Northridge who is now president of the California Foundation for Fiscal Responsibility. [Sacramento Bee, 6/22/07]

I would agree, if it were true. It sounds good to say something like this. You have a convenient villain – public employees – but they are hardly getting rich off their early retirements. Truth is, most early retirees have another source of income supplementing their reduced retirement income. Few public employees are receiving “extravagant pensions.”

Also untrue is the lie that “private sector [employees] are working well into their 60s and 70s to pay for extravagant pensions for public employees.” Last time I checked public employees were having retirement deducted from their pay, many in addition to Social Security. Some will be amazed to find out that public employees are also taxpayers, which means public employees pay for their own retirement.

But former Assemblyman Keith Richman isn’t about to let truth or a working system get in the way of his agenda. He is once again on the attack against those evil public employees who are only in if for themselves and wants to “reform” their pension system. He has filed an initiative to do just that.

You remember Richman. He teamed up with Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2005 in an attempt to put new public employees into risky 401(k)-style retirement accounts. His new 2007 version leaves employees in a defined benefit — good — plan but cuts retirement benefits and raises retirement age — bad. He also proposes changes that would base the pension payout on the highest consecutive five years of pay, instead of the one year or three years now in use — bad.

To make his plan more palatable to current employees he is reviving his divide and conquer tactic from 2005. His initiative would only apply to state and local government workers hired after July 1, 2009, forcing public employees into a divisive two-tiered system.

Earlier this year, Governor Schwarzenegger appointed a commission to look into public pensions. The commission is schedule to come out with recommendations in January.

“It seems that Richman is way out ahead of the governor on this one,” said Dave Low of the California School Employees Associaton, one of the Legislature’s appointees to the commission. “Why not wait?”

  J.J. Jelincic, president of the California State Employees Association questioned the rationale for the initiative. He says CalPERS, the state’s biggest pension system is not severely underfunded.

Rather than waste time and money fighting public employees, Richman should be working with the Governor’s commission to study pensions and come up with a legislative solution. But that won’t happen. The commission isn’t likely to find any major problems with the current system, and that just doesn’t work into Richman’s plan.

Oh Boy – A Lawsuit for the Term Limits Initiative

Robert Salladay reports that a group called U.S. Term Limits is announcing a lawsuit today over the term limits initiative, and particularly Attorney General Brown’s “Title and Summary.”  You’ll recall that the title and summary goes like this:

“LIMITS ON LEGISLATORS’ TERMS IN OFFICE. INITIATIVE CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT. Reduces the total amount of time a person may serve in the state legislature from 14 years to 12 years.”

Because the measure would actually extend the amount of time one legislator can spend in the Assembly or Senate, and because the measure would allow current legislators to extend their time in office (particularly the Speaker and the Senate President Pro Tem), U.S. Term Limits considers this a weakening of the law, and wants the wording changed.

Wording like this is always slippery, and whether there’s “right” or “wrong” language is debatable.  I bring this lawsuit up, however, because it was obvious that there would be a coordinated effort to derail this initiative.  Term limits are one of the backbone principles of the conservative movement, and while across the country that movement is breaking down, in this state it still means something, even if it’s marginalized.  I don’t know if U.S. Term Limits will be successful, but to me it’s a sign that there will in fact be vigorous opposition to the initiative.

Term Limits Initiative Gets A Boost (Maybe)

As Juls mentioned in Quick Hits, Attorney General Jerry Brown wrote the language of the term limits initiative in a way that appears to favor a “yes” vote.  But are people really that easily swayed by whatever it says on the ballot?  Most experts seem to think so, and certainly when the ballot question is put to people in polls differently, it changes the outcome.  But I am not sure that this is so epochal.

The campaign over this term limits extension (which is exactly what it is for people in office right now, while a reduction for later) hasn’t even begun.  And you can bet that there will be ads excoriating the perceived power grab, no matter what the ballot says.  I don’t think that you can hand an election to one side or the other based on language without putting it in the context of a campaign dynamic.  What we know about initiatives in the past couple elections is that the default position is no.  And the “Yes” people now have a really odd argument to make.  They have to say that term limits should be relaxed for the 128 lawmakers serving right now, but tightened for everybody else.  They have to talk about the benefits of more experience and wisdom in the California legislature, while defending a proposition that, according to the ballot, will guarantee LESS experience in that body.  It’s a bit incoherent.  And the opening for opponents of the measure is so wide you can drive a truck through it.

In addition, is the Governor on board yet?  That could be crucial.