(Another great report on these numbers. Thanks! – promoted by Brian Leubitz)

With the release of the new registration numbers, I now have updates for the open and/or competitive State Senate and State Assembly districts. The Secretary of State’s website has the presidential results by district, so I am including the presidential results in each districts.

I am also tacking on the eight districts that are our top targets in 2010: CA-03, CA-24, CA-25, CA-26, CA-44, CA-45, CA-48, and CA-50.

Cross-posted at Swing State Project and Democracy for California.

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
CA-03	Dan Lungren	37.72%	39.63%	R+1.91	O+0.5
CA-24	Elton Gallegly	35.84%	41.88%	R+6.04	O+2.8
CA-25	Buck McKeon	37.72%	39.35%	R+1.63	O+1.1
CA-26	David Dreier	35.64%	40.56%	R+4.92	O+4.0
CA-44	Ken Calvert	34.70%	42.38%	R+7.68	O+0.9
CA-45	Mary Bono Mack	37.97%	41.96%	R+3.99	O+4.6
CA-48	John Campbell	29.41%	44.87%	R+15.46	O+0.7
CA-50	Brian Bilbray	31.38%	40.36%	R+8.98	O+4.2

Competitive and/or open state legislature districts are over the flip.

Our current numbers in the Senate are 25 Democrats/15 Republicans, with winning 2 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3; and in the Assembly 51 Democrats/29 Republicans, with winning 3 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3.

SENATE

Republicans (4)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
SD-04	Sam Aanestad	33.05%	44.10%	R+11.05	M+11.8
SD-12	Jeff Denham	47.46%	33.09%	D+14.37	O+17.6
SD-18	Roy Ashburn	31.91%	47.58%	R+15.67	M+23.1
SD-36	Dennis Hollingsworth	28.94%	46.13%	R+17.19	M+14.2

Democrats (5)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
SD-16	Dean Florez	49.61%	33.15%	D+16.46	O+19.5
SD-22	Gilbert Cedillo	58.98%	14.74%	D+44.24	O+58.7
SD-24	Gloria Romero	53.62%	21.13%	D+32.49	O+41.3
SD-34	Lou Correa	42.82%	33.58%	D+9.24	O+16.8
SD-40	Denise Ducheny	46.59%	29.65%	D+16.94	O+25.7

ASSEMBLY

Republicans (16)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
AD-03	Dan Logue	34.81%	40.15%	R+5.34	M+1.6
AD-05	Roger Niello	37.93%	38.80%	R+0.87	O+4.2
AD-25	Tom Berryhill	36.84%	42.30%	R+5.46	M+7.9
AD-26	Bill Berryhill	42.04%	39.22%	D+2.82	O+4.4
AD-30	Danny Gilmore	46.31%	36.66%	D+9.65	O+3.9
AD-33	Sam Blakeslee	35.91%	40.77%	R+4.86	O+1.4
AD-36	Steve Knight	39.56%	38.65%	D+0.91	O+0.8
AD-37	Audra Strickland	35.86%	41.40%	R+5.54	O+3.7
AD-38	Cameron Smyth	36.84%	40.02%	R+3.18	O+4.9
AD-63	Bill Emmerson	37.90%	40.35%	R+2.45	O+4.1
AD-64	Brian Nestande	36.11%	41.83%	R+5.72	O+1.8
AD-65	Paul Cook	37.14%	41.08%	R+3.94	M+4.1
AD-68	Van Tran	32.82%	41.25%	R+8.43	M+2.9
AD-70	Chuck DeVore	30.19%	43.49%	R+13.30	O+3.9
AD-74	Martin Garrick	30.89%	41.68%	R+10.79	O+2.2
AD-75	Nathan Fletcher	30.71%	39.88%	R+9.17	O+4.1

Democrats (15)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
AD-07	Noreen Evans	52.81%	23.72%	D+29.09	O+43.3
AD-09	Dave Jones	56.64%	18.71%	D+37.93	O+49.0
AD-10	Alyson Huber	39.32%	39.39%	R+0.07	O+4.0
AD-11	Tom Torlakson	54.23%	22.06%	D+32.17	O+41.2
AD-15	Joan Buchanan	40.60%	36.09%	D+4.51	O+16.9
AD-20	Alberto Torrico	48.65%	20.17%	D+18.48	O+42.3
AD-21	Ira Ruskin	47.22%	26.83%	D+20.39	O+45.8
AD-23	Joe Coto	51.28%	18.96%	D+32.32	O+44.4
AD-31	Juan Arambula	49.07%	33.84%	D+15.23	O+26.1
AD-35	Pedro Nava	48.24%	27.95%	D+20.29	O+35.6
AD-47	Karen Bass	64.93%	11.27%	D+53.66	O+71.9
AD-50	Hector De La Torre	61.92%	16.21%	D+45.71	O+55.9
AD-76	Lori Saldaña	41.96%	26.89%	D+15.07	O+34.4
AD-78	Martin Block	43.09%	31.54%	D+11.55	O+21.8
AD-80	Manuel Perez	45.33%	36.49%	D+8.84	O+20.7

In the Senate, our obvious plan of action is to win the 12th and possibly the 4th if we have a strong candidate, and hold the 34th. In the Assembly, we have a lot of offense opportunities and of course, we will need to defend our 4 freshmen in vulnerable districts (Huber especially, Buchanan, Block, Perez). As for the potentially vulnerable Republican districts we should target, we should prioritize them like this:

(I) Open seats in Obama districts: 5, 33, 37, 63, 70

(II) Incumbents in Obama districts: 26, 30, 36, 38, 64, 74, 75

(III) Open seat in McCain district with small (<6%) registration edge: 25

(IV) Incumbents in McCain districts with small (<6%) registration edge: 3, 65

(V) Other open seat: 68

With the release of the new registration numbers, I now have updates for the open and/or competitive State Senate and State Assembly districts. With the district results that I found (Senate here and Assembly here), I put in a new column, showing the margin of the 2008 presidential winner in each district, so we can clearly see what our biggest targets are.

Our current numbers in the Senate are 25 Democrats/15 Republicans, with winning 2 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3; and in the Assembly 51 Democrats/29 Republicans, with winning 3 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3.

Cross-posted at Swing State Project and Democracy for California.

SENATE

Republicans (4)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
SD-04	Sam Aanestad	33.07%	44.12%	R+11.05	M+12.80
SD-12	Jeff Denham	47.46%	33.14%	D+14.32	O+17.64
SD-18	Roy Ashburn	31.93%	47.63%	R+15.70	M+15.00
SD-36	Dennis Hollingsworth	28.96%	46.07%	R+17.11	M+14.16

Democrats (5)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
SD-16	Dean Florez	49.67%	33.14%	D+16.53	O+21.35
SD-22	Gilbert Cedillo	58.98%	14.77%	D+44.21	O+58.53
SD-24	Gloria Romero	53.62%	21.16%	D+32.46	O+41.34
SD-34	Lou Correa	42.68%	34.05%	D+8.63	O+16.81
SD-40	Denise Ducheny	46.50%	29.66%	D+15.84	O+26.64

Assembly numbers are over the flip…

ASSEMBLY

Republicans (16)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
AD-03	Dan Logue	34.83%	40.20%	R+5.37	M+1.60
AD-05	Roger Niello	37.94%	38.83%	R+0.89	O+4.24
AD-25	Tom Berryhill	36.84%	42.32%	R+5.48	M+7.90
AD-26	Bill Berryhill	42.03%	39.27%	D+2.76	O+4.11
AD-30	Danny Gilmore	46.45%	36.56%	D+9.89	O+4.39
AD-33	Sam Blakeslee	35.86%	40.69%	R+4.83	O+1.39
AD-36	Steve Knight	39.55%	38.72%	D+0.83	O+0.66
AD-37	Audra Strickland	35.84%	41.46%	R+5.62	O+3.73
AD-38	Cameron Smyth	36.84%	40.05%	R+3.21	O+4.86
AD-63	Bill Emmerson	37.85%	40.44%	R+2.59	O+4.09
AD-64	Brian Nestande	36.26%	41.61%	R+5.35	O+1.79
AD-65	Paul Cook	37.14%	41.06%	R+3.92	M+4.12
AD-68	Van Tran	32.72%	41.61%	R+8.89	M+2.95
AD-70	Chuck DeVore	30.12%	43.73%	R+13.61	O+3.93
AD-74	Martin Garrick	30.88%	41.62%	R+10.74	O+2.16
AD-75	Nathan Fletcher	30.74%	39.81%	R+9.07	O+4.05

Democrats (15)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
AD-07	Noreen Evans	52.84%	23.73%	D+29.11	O+43.31
AD-09	Dave Jones	56.63%	18.74%	D+37.89	O+49.15
AD-10	Alyson Huber	39.32%	39.43%	R+0.11	O+3.91
AD-11	Tom Torlakson	54.24%	22.10%	D+32.14	O+40.90
AD-15	Joan Buchanan	40.59%	36.14%	D+4.45	O+16.55
AD-20	Alberto Torrico	48.62%	20.19%	D+18.43	O+42.28
AD-21	Ira Ruskin	47.13%	26.81%	D+20.32	O+45.90
AD-23	Joe Coto	51.36%	18.97%	D+32.39	O+44.45
AD-31	Juan Arambula	49.04%	33.92%	D+15.12	O+24.81
AD-35	Pedro Nava	48.21%	27.95%	D+20.26	O+35.46
AD-47	Karen Bass	64.95%	11.28%	D+53.67	O+71.90
AD-50	Hector De La Torre	61.91%	16.23%	D+45.68	O+55.86
AD-76	Lori Saldaña	41.92%	26.76%	D+15.16	O+34.34
AD-78	Martin Block	43.01%	31.51%	D+11.50	O+11.82
AD-80	Manuel Perez	45.25%	36.62%	D+8.63	O+20.68

In the Senate, our obvious plan of action is to win the 12th and possibly the 4th if we have a strong candidate, and hold the 34th. In the Assembly, we have a lot of offense opportunities and of course, we will need to defend our 4 freshmen in vulnerable districts (Huber especially, Buchanan, Block, Perez). As for the potentially vulnerable Republican districts we should target, we should prioritize them like this:

(I) Open seats in Obama districts: 5, 33, 37, 63, 70

(II) Incumbents in Obama districts: 26, 30, 36, 38, 64, 74, 75

(III) Incumbents in McCain districts with small (<6%) registration edge: 3, 65 (There are no open seats in these districts.)

(IV) Other open seats: 25, 68

It is never too early to look ahead to the next election, and I am doing that with my handy dandy registration tables for the State Senate and State Assembly districts with term-limited and possibly vulnerable incumbents (in italics). Without further Apu, here are the numbers, complete with links to the complete updated list of registration numbers in each district.

Cross-posted at Swing State Project, Democracy for California, and my blog.

And I might as well use this diary to promote my new 2010 California Race Tracker website. Anyone is free to join in and contribute information that will be useful for us going into the 2010 elections.

Edit by Brian: Check the flip for some great info.

SENATE

8 incumbents are term-limited in 2010, 4 Republicans and 4 Democrats. I am also watching Lou Correa in the 34th district due to his razor-thin win in 2006 after recounts. The 12th district has the best chance of flipping to us, though if we work very hard in the 4th, like Charlie Brown in CA-04, we may have a chance here too.

Republicans (4)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin
SD-04	Sam Aanestad	33.07%	44.18%	R+11.11
SD-12	Jeff Denham	47.33%	33.41%	D+13.92
SD-18	Roy Ashburn	31.81%	47.82%	R+16.01
SD-36	Dennis Hollingsworth	28.88%	46.37%	R+17.49

Democrats (5)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin
SD-16	Dean Florez	49.60%	33.39%	D+16.21
SD-22	Gilbert Cedillo	58.88%	14.97%	D+13.91
SD-24	Gloria Romero	53.40%	21.44%	D+31.96
SD-34	Lou Correa	42.53%	34.35%	D+8.18
SD-40	Denise Moreno Ducheny	46.25%	30.12%	D+16.13

ASSEMBLY

17 Assemblymembers are term-limited in 2010, 6 Republicans and 11 Democrats. I am also including the 6 new freshmen (2 GOP, 4 DEM) that were elected by close margins, and 6 reelected Assemblymembers (all GOP) that won by close margins (though Nestande in the 64th was unopposed, the GOP registration advantage is small).

Republicans (14)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin
AD-03	Dan Logue	34.82%	40.26%	R+5.44
AD-05	Roger Niello	37.77%	39.00%	R+1.23
AD-25	Tom Berryhill	36.88%	42.39%	R+5.51
AD-26	Bill Berryhill	41.90%	39.59%	D+2.31
AD-30	Danny Gilmore	46.48%	36.67%	D+9.81
AD-33	Sam Blakeslee	35.93%	40.74%	R+4.81
AD-36	Steve Knight	39.20%	39.25%	R+0.05
AD-37	Audra Strickland	35.76%	41.71%	R+5.95
AD-38	Cameron Smyth	36.65%	40.41%	R+3.76
AD-63	Bill Emmerson	37.69%	40.80%	R+3.11
AD-64	Brian Nestande	36.04%	42.02%	R+5.98
AD-65	Paul Cook	36.93%	41.47%	R+4.54
AD-68	Van Tran	32.63%	41.90%	R+9.27
AD-70	Chuck DeVore	30.05%	43.99%	R+13.94

Democrats (15)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin
AD-07	Noreen Evans	52.72%	24.00%	D+28.72
AD-09	Dave Jones	56.53%	18.92%	D+37.61
AD-10	Alyson Huber	39.18%	39.61%	R+0.43
AD-11	Tom Torlakson	53.81%	22.54%	D+31.27
AD-15	Joan Buchanan	40.41%	36.45%	D+3.96
AD-20	Alberto Torrico	48.53%	20.37%	D+18.16
AD-21	Ira Ruskin	47.17%	26.91%	D+20.26
AD-23	Joe Coto	51.42%	19.18%	D+32.24
AD-31	Juan Arambula	48.90%	34.28%	D+14.62
AD-35	Pedro Nava	48.05%	28.19%	D+19.86
AD-47	Karen Bass	64.96%	11.36%	D+53.60
AD-50	Hector De La Torre	61.62%	16.59%	D+45.03
AD-76	Lori Saldaña	41.92%	27.01%	D+14.91
AD-78	Martin Block	42.86%	31.89%	D+10.97
AD-80	Manuel Perez	44.99%	37.17%	D+7.82

Since it’s never too early to prepare for the next election, we should get started on targeting vulnerable districts right away. The 26th and 30th were close heartbreakers for us, but hopefully with more support from the CDP and national Dems, we can take them back.

The 37th was another close race, but fortunately Audra Strickland is term-limited out, so we have a better chance at a pickup here, and can strengthen our presence in this part of the state and hopefully take down Audra’s husband Tony in 2012. (I know the districts will have new configurations in 2012, and I intend to map out redistricting possibilities for the next decade later.) The 36th is edging closer and closer to a Dem edge in registration and with enough support we can pick this one up. The 38th is also ripe for the picking.

Other areas ripe for the picking include AD-33 on the Central Coast, and in the Inland Empire/Riverside County districts 63-65. My normally Republican-leaning hometown of Rancho Cucamonga is in the 63rd Assembly District and voted for Obama this year, so we have a real chance of making big gains in this part of the Southland. I can’t wait for 2010!

( – promoted by David Dayen)

Here is my updated legislature outlook, with the updated registration numbers of the districts where the current incumbents are term-limited. I am using a “Partisan Factor” (PF), which is the average of the margins in registration, Davis-Simon (02G), Kerry-Bush (04P), Boxer-Jones (04S), and Feinstein-Mountjoy (06S). My previous diary is here, the initial discussion we had on the legislature outlook is here, and the updated numbers are below the flip.

Before the flip, I have a few words to say………

Get Out The Vote!!!

And a friendly reminder to voters out in SD-15: Please make sure to write in Dennis Morris!

ASSEMBLY

Republican-Held Seats (12)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin
2	Doug LaMalfa	32.12%	47.19%	R+15.07
3	Rick Keene	34.31%	41.29%	R+6.98
10	Alan Nakanishi	38.71%	40.68%	R+1.97
15	Guy Houston	39.41%	38.10%	D+1.31
26	Greg Aghazarian	42.01%	40.02%	D+1.99
34	Bill Maze	33.91%	45.74%	R+11.83
36	Sharon Runner	35.37%	42.62%	R+7.25
64	John Benoit	34.96%	43.52%	R+8.56
71	Todd Spitzer	27.81%	50.42%	R+22.61
75	George Plescia	30.07%	42.01%	R+11.94
78	Shirley Horton	42.51%	32.03%	D+10.48
80	Bonnie Garcia	46.41%	35.65%	D+10.76

District	2002G	2004P	2004S	2006S	Reg.	PF
2	R+30.0	R+34.1	R+23.7	R+16.7	R+15.1	R+23.91
3	R+31.5	R+14.7	R+7.3	R+0.2	R+7.0	R+12.14
10	R+16.6	R+14.0	R+0.7	D+6.2	R+2.0	R+5.41
15	R+4.5	D+0.1	D+7.8	D+22.3	D+1.3	D+5.40
26	R+5.7	R+15.6	D+1.0	D+6.3	D+2.0	R+2.40
34	R+26.1	R+33.6	R+20.9	R+12.6	R+11.8	R+21.01
36	R+26.0	R+21.9	R+5.7	D+5.4	R+7.3	R+11.10
64	R+15.3	R+16.6	R+1.6	D+0.7	R+8.6	R+8.27
71	R+33.6	R+30.2	R+19.4	R+14.4	R+22.6	R+24.04
75	R+19.8	R+12.7	R+0.2	D+5.6	R+11.9	R+7.81
78	D+2.4	D+3.2	D+20.4	D+24.2	D+10.5	D+12.14
80	D+8.6	D+5.2	D+19.3	D+22.4	D+10.8	D+13.25

Democratic-Held Seats (11)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin
1	Patty Berg	45.71%	27.67%	D+18.04
8	Lois Wolk	47.00%	28.75%	D+18.25
13	Mark Leno	58.03%	8.90%	D+49.13
14	Loni Hancock	60.41%	14.17%	D+46.24
19	Gene Mullin	50.97%	21.67%	D+29.30
22	Sally Lieber	44.39%	23.25%	D+21.14
27	John Laird	49.15%	25.57%	D+23.58
30	Nicole Parra	46.76%	37.61%	D+9.15
40	Lloyd Levine	48.59%	27.01%	D+21.58
46	Fabian Núñez	65.18%	11.18%	D+54.00
52	Mervyn Dymally	69.43%	10.93%	D+58.50

District	2002G	2004P	2004S	2006S	Reg.	PF
1	D+10.3	D+22.4	D+26.5	D+32.5	D+18.0	D+21.95
8	D+8.8	D+12.5	D+22.8	D+28.8	D+18.3	D+18.23
13	D+53.3	D+72.2	D+73.5	D+72.9	D+49.1	D+64.21
14	D+43.9	D+62.8	D+61.7	D+65.6	D+46.2	D+56.05
19	D+28.4	D+39.8	D+44.8	D+54.4	D+29.3	D+39.34
22	D+26.4	D+36.1	D+40.7	D+48.5	D+21.1	D+34.57
27	D+20.4	D+35.0	D+36.0	D+43.8	D+23.6	D+31.76
30	R+2.6	R+14.7	D+3.8	D+12.9	D+9.2	D+1.71
40	D+11.6	D+21.9	D+35.3	D+33.7	D+21.6	D+24.82
46	D+60.8	D+62.7	D+72.3	D+72.3	D+54.0	D+64.42
52	D+70.0	D+73.5	D+79.4	D+79.9	D+58.5	D+72.26

SENATE

Republican-Held Seats (5)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin
15	Abel Maldonado	40.52%	36.20%	D+4.32
19	Tom McClintock	37.54%	39.48%	R+1.94
29	Bob Margett	33.00%	43.42%	R+10.42
33	Dick Ackerman	27.97%	49.52%	R+21.55
37	Jim Battin	36.26%	42.98%	R+6.72

District	2002G	2004P	2004S	2006S	Reg.	PF
15	R+2.4	D+6.4	D+11.3	D+20.6	D+4.3	D+8.04
19	R+7.0	R+2.0	D+7.6	D+10.6	R+1.9	D+1.45
29	R+19.9	R+15.2	R+1.7	R+2.2	R+10.4	R+9.88
33	R+31.4	R+27.2	R+14.9	R+11.6	R+21.6	R+21.33
37	R+13.4	R+16.6	R+0.9	D+2.2	R+6.7	R+7.08

Democratic-Held Seats (6)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin
5	Michael Machado	47.13%	31.52%	D+15.61
7	Tom Torlakson	47.80%	29.44%	D+18.36
9	Don Perata	60.96%	12.74%	D+48.22
21	Jack Scott	46.56%	27.51%	D+19.05
23	Sheila Kuehl	50.94%	24.53%	D+26.41
25	Edward Vincent	60.25%	19.20%	D+41.05

District	2002G	2004P	2004S	2006S	Reg.	PF
5	D+7.7	D+8.4	D+22.2	D+27.6	D+15.6	D+16.30
7	D+14.5	D+22.8	D+27.2	D+39.6	D+18.4	D+24.49
9	D+48.2	D+63.6	D+64.5	D+66.6	D+48.2	D+58.22
21	D+15.0	D+27.8	D+35.9	D+37.0	D+19.1	D+26.95
23	D+22.6	D+31.1	D+40.8	D+45.9	D+26.4	D+33.36
25	D+38.7	D+45.7	D+52.9	D+53.6	D+41.1	D+46.39

Here is my updated legislature outlook, with the updated registration numbers of the districts where the current incumbents are term-limited. I am using a “Partisan Factor” (PF), which is the average of the margins in registration, Davis-Simon (02G), Kerry-Bush (04P), Boxer-Jones (04S), and Feinstein-Mountjoy (06S). My previous diary is here, the initial discussion we had on the legislature outlook is here, and the updated numbers are below the flip.

I am proud to announce that… (*drumroll*) …we now have a Democratic registration advantage in the 15th and 26th Assembly districts!

ASSEMBLY

Republican-Held Seats (12)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin
2	Doug LaMalfa	32.05%	47.27%	R+15.22
3	Rick Keene	34.21%	41.42%	R+7.21
10	Alan Nakanishi	38.59%	40.84%	R+2.25
15	Guy Houston	39.29%	38.34%	D+0.95
26	Greg Aghazarian	41.74%	40.23%	D+1.51
34	Bill Maze	33.75%	45.87%	R+12.12
36	Sharon Runner	37.59%	41.38%	R+3.79
64	John Benoit	34.66%	43.95%	R+9.29
71	Todd Spitzer	27.58%	50.75%	R+23.17
75	George Plescia	29.80%	42.32%	R+12.52
78	Shirley Horton	42.14%	32.46%	D+9.68
80	Bonnie Garcia	46.31%	36.01%	D+10.30

District	2002G	2004P	2004S	2006S	Reg.	PF
2	R+30.0	R+34.1	R+23.7	R+16.7	R+15.2	R+23.9
3	R+31.5	R+14.7	R+7.3	R+0.2	R+7.2	R+12.2
10	R+16.6	R+14.0	R+0.7	D+6.2	R+2.3	R+5.5
15	R+4.5	D+0.1	D+7.8	D+22.3	D+1.0	D+5.3
26	R+5.7	R+15.6	D+1.0	D+6.3	D+1.5	R+2.5
34	R+26.1	R+33.6	R+20.9	R+12.6	R+12.1	R+21.1
36	R+26.0	R+21.9	R+5.7	D+5.4	R+3.8	R+10.4
64	R+15.3	R+16.6	R+1.6	D+0.7	R+9.3	R+8.4
71	R+33.6	R+30.2	R+19.4	R+14.4	R+23.2	R+24.2
75	R+19.8	R+12.7	R+0.2	D+5.6	R+12.5	R+7.9
78	D+2.4	D+3.2	D+20.4	D+24.2	D+9.7	D+12.0
80	D+8.6	D+5.2	D+19.3	D+22.4	D+10.3	D+13.2

Democratic-Held Seats (11)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin
1	Patty Berg	45.60%	27.87%	D+17.73
8	Lois Wolk	46.83%	28.96%	D+17.87
13	Mark Leno	57.75%	9.00%	D+48.75
14	Loni Hancock	60.21%	14.37%	D+45.84
19	Gene Mullin	50.77%	21.86%	D+28.91
22	Sally Lieber	44.32%	23.35%	D+20.97
27	John Laird	48.95%	25.81%	D+23.14
30	Nicole Parra	46.74%	37.88%	D+8.86
40	Lloyd Levine	48.42%	27.43%	D+20.99
46	Fabian Núñez	65.10%	11.33%	D+53.77
52	Mervyn Dymally	69.36%	11.09%	D+58.27

District	2002G	2004P	2004S	2006S	Reg.	PF
1	D+10.3	D+22.4	D+26.5	D+32.5	D+17.7	D+21.9
8	D+8.8	D+12.5	D+22.8	D+28.8	D+17.9	D+18.2
13	D+53.3	D+72.2	D+73.5	D+72.9	D+48.8	D+64.1
14	D+43.9	D+62.8	D+61.7	D+65.6	D+45.8	D+56.0
19	D+28.4	D+39.8	D+44.8	D+54.4	D+28.9	D+39.3
22	D+26.4	D+36.1	D+40.7	D+48.5	D+21.0	D+34.5
27	D+20.4	D+35.0	D+36.0	D+43.8	D+23.1	D+31.7
30	R+2.6	R+14.7	D+3.8	D+12.9	D+8.9	D+1.7
40	D+11.6	D+21.9	D+35.3	D+33.7	D+21.0	D+24.7
46	D+60.8	D+62.7	D+72.3	D+72.3	D+53.8	D+64.4
52	D+70.0	D+73.5	D+79.4	D+79.9	D+58.3	D+72.2

SENATE

Republican-Held Seats (4)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin
19	Tom McClintock	37.40%	39.71%	R+2.31
29	Bob Margett	32.85%	43.77%	R+10.92
33	Dick Ackerman	27.88%	49.70%	R+21.82
37	Jim Battin	35.87%	43.46%	R+7.59

District	2002G	2004P	2004S	2006S	Reg.	PF
19	R+7.0	R+2.0	D+7.6	D+10.6	R+2.3	D+1.4
29	R+19.9	R+15.2	R+1.7	R+2.2	R+10.9	R+10.0
33	R+31.4	R+27.2	R+14.9	R+11.6	R+21.8	R+21.4
37	R+13.4	R+16.6	R+0.9	D+2.2	R+7.6	R+7.3

Democratic-Held Seats (6)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin
5	Michael Machado	46.96%	31.71%	D+15.25
7	Tom Torlakson	47.73%	29.62%	D+18.11
9	Don Perata	60.70%	12.96%	D+47.74
21	Jack Scott	46.47%	27.85%	D+18.62
23	Sheila Kuehl	50.88%	24.81%	D+26.07
25	Edward Vincent	59.96%	19.58%	D+40.38

District	2002G	2004P	2004S	2006S	Reg.	PF
5	D+7.7	D+8.4	D+22.2	D+27.6	D+15.3	D+16.2
7	D+14.5	D+22.8	D+27.2	D+39.6	D+18.1	D+24.4
9	D+48.2	D+63.6	D+64.5	D+66.6	D+47.7	D+58.1
21	D+15.0	D+27.8	D+35.9	D+37.0	D+18.6	D+26.9
23	D+22.6	D+31.1	D+40.8	D+45.9	D+26.1	D+33.3
25	D+38.7	D+45.7	D+52.9	D+53.6	D+40.4	D+46.3

Now here is a list of the districts with the most competitive PF’s, ranked from highest to lowest priority.

Assembly

District	PF
80	D+13.2
78	D+12.0
30	D+1.7
26	R+2.5
10	R+5.3
64	R+7.9
75	R+8.4

Senate

District	PF
19	D+1.4

(Another installment of great data. – promoted by Brian Leubitz)

Here is my updated legislature outlook, with the updated registration numbers of the districts where the current incumbents are term-limited. I am using a “Partisan Factor” (PF), which is the average of the margins in registration, Davis-Simon (02G), Kerry-Bush (04P), Boxer-Jones (04S), and Feinstein-Mountjoy (06S). My previous diary is here, the initial discussion we had on the legislature outlook is here, and the updated numbers are below the flip.

ASSEMBLY

Republican-Held Seats (12)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin
2	Doug LaMalfa	31.86%	47.28%	R+15.42
3	Rick Keene	33.81%	41.31%	R+7.50
10	Alan Nakanishi	38.19%	41.20%	R+3.01
15	Guy Houston	38.72%	38.82%	R+0.10
26	Greg Aghazarian	41.05%	41.21%	R+0.16
34	Bill Maze	33.23%	46.23%	R+13.00
36	Sharon Runner	36.61%	42.00%	R+5.39
64	John Benoit	33.98%	44.71%	R+10.73
71	Todd Spitzer	26.95%	51.27%	R+24.32
75	George Plescia	29.43%	42.79%	R+13.36
78	Shirley Horton	41.58%	33.10%	D+8.48
80	Bonnie Garcia	45.68%	36.49%	D+9.19

District	2002G	2004P	2004S	2006S	Reg.	PF
2	R+30.0	R+34.1	R+23.7	R+16.7	R+15.4	R+24.0
3	R+31.5	R+14.7	R+7.3	R+0.2	R+7.5	R+12.2
10	R+16.6	R+14.0	R+0.7	D+6.2	R+3.0	R+5.6
15	R+4.5	D+0.1	D+7.8	D+22.3	R+0.1	D+6.4
26	R+5.7	R+15.6	D+1.0	D+6.3	R+0.2	R+2.8
34	R+26.1	R+33.6	R+20.9	R+12.6	R+13.0	R+21.2
36	R+26.0	R+21.9	R+5.7	D+5.4	R+5.4	R+10.7
64	R+15.3	R+16.6	R+1.6	D+0.7	R+10.7	R+8.7
71	R+33.6	R+30.2	R+19.4	R+14.4	R+24.3	R+24.4
75	R+19.8	R+12.7	R+0.2	D+5.6	R+13.4	R+8.1
78	D+2.4	D+3.2	D+20.4	D+24.2	D+8.5	D+11.7
80	D+8.6	D+5.2	D+19.3	D+22.4	D+9.2	D+12.9

Democratic-Held Seats (11)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin
1	Patty Berg	45.18%	28.11%	D+17.07
8	Lois Wolk	46.17%	29.28%	D+16.89
13	Mark Leno	57.08%	9.22%	D+47.86
14	Loni Hancock	59.41%	14.59%	D+44.82
19	Gene Mullin	50.48%	22.18%	D+28.30
22	Sally Lieber	43.91%	23.81%	D+20.10
27	John Laird	48.60%	26.10%	D+22.50
30	Nicole Parra	46.18%	38.40%	D+7.78
40	Lloyd Levine	47.89%	27.75%	D+20.14
46	Fabian Núñez	64.07%	12.00%	D+52.07
52	Mervyn Dymally	68.49%	11.85%	D+56.64

District	2002G	2004P	2004S	2006S	Reg.	PF
1	D+10.3	D+22.4	D+26.5	D+32.5	D+17.1	D+21.8
8	D+8.8	D+12.5	D+22.8	D+28.8	D+16.9	D+18.0
13	D+53.3	D+72.2	D+73.5	D+72.9	D+47.9	D+64.0
14	D+43.9	D+62.8	D+61.7	D+65.6	D+44.8	D+55.8
19	D+28.4	D+39.8	D+44.8	D+54.4	D+28.3	D+39.1
22	D+26.4	D+36.1	D+40.7	D+48.5	D+20.1	D+34.4
27	D+20.4	D+35.0	D+36.0	D+43.8	D+22.5	D+31.5
30	R+2.6	R+14.7	D+3.8	D+12.9	D+7.8	D+1.4
40	D+11.6	D+21.9	D+35.3	D+33.7	D+20.1	D+24.5
46	D+60.8	D+62.7	D+72.3	D+72.3	D+52.1	D+64.0
52	D+70.0	D+73.5	D+79.4	D+79.9	D+56.6	D+71.9

SENATE

Republican-Held Seats (5)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin
15	Abel Maldonado*	40.05%	36.82%	D+3.23
19	Tom McClintock	36.84%	39.93%	R+3.09
29	Bob Margett	32.37%	44.19%	R+11.82
33	Dick Ackerman	27.32%	50.06%	R+22.74
37	Jim Battin	35.14%	44.28%	R+9.14

District	2002G	2004P	2004S	2006S	Reg.	PF
15	R+2.4	D+6.4	D+11.3	D+20.6	D+3.2	D+7.8
19	R+7.0	R+2.0	D+7.6	D+10.6	R+3.1	D+1.2
29	R+19.9	R+15.2	R+1.7	R+2.2	R+11.8	R+10.2
33	R+31.4	R+27.2	R+14.9	R+11.6	R+22.7	R+21.6
37	R+13.4	R+16.6	R+0.9	D+2.2	R+9.1	R+7.6

Democratic-Held Seats (6)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin
5	Michael Machado	46.32%	32.14%	D+14.18
7	Tom Torlakson	47.16%	30.12%	D+17.04
9	Don Perata	59.52%	13.20%	D+46.32
21	Jack Scott	45.89%	28.18%	D+17.71
23	Sheila Kuehl	50.31%	25.01%	D+25.30
25	Edward Vincent	59.23%	20.16%	D+39.07

District	2002G	2004P	2004S	2006S	Reg.	PF
5	D+7.7	D+8.4	D+22.2	D+27.6	D+14.2	D+16.0
7	D+14.5	D+22.8	D+27.2	D+39.6	D+17.0	D+24.2
9	D+48.2	D+63.6	D+64.5	D+66.6	D+46.3	D+57.8
21	D+15.0	D+27.8	D+35.9	D+37.0	D+17.7	D+26.7
23	D+22.6	D+31.1	D+40.8	D+45.9	D+25.3	D+33.1
25	D+38.7	D+45.7	D+52.9	D+53.6	D+39.1	D+46.0

Now here is a list of the districts with the most competitive PF’s, ranked from highest to lowest priority.

Assembly

District	PF
80	D+12.9
78	D+11.7
15	D+6.4
30	D+1.4
26	R+2.8
10	R+5.6
64	R+8.1
75	R+8.7

Senate

District	PF
15	D+7.8
19	D+1.2

(wanted to make sure this didn’t get lost. excellent tables! – promoted by Robert in Monterey)

Many in the California Democratic Party circles may not know this, but in 2008 there is a real possibility of gaining 2/3 majorities in the State Senate and State Assembly. The fact that a two-thirds vote in both houses is required to pass the annual budget and to override gubernatorial vetoes could serve as a compelling reason to vote against the term-limits initiative.

Using my extraordinary math, statistics, and HTML skills, below I included with each list of incumbents are the margins that each district voted in the 2002 Governor’s race (2002G: Davis vs. Simon), 2004 Presidential race (2004P: Kerry vs. Bush), 2004 Senate race (2004S: Boxer vs. Jones), and 2006 Senate race (2006S: Feinstein vs. Mountjoy) and the average of these and the registration margins, which I will call the Partisan Factor (PF).

Check out the discussion here.

Numbers are below the flip:

ASSEMBLY

23 Assemblymembers are term-limited in 2008, 12 Republicans and 11 Democrats. Here are the districts which will be open, the term-limited incumbent (for reference) and the registration statistics.

Republican-Held Seats (12)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin
2	Doug La Malfa	31.76%	47.44%	R+15.68
3	Rick Keene	33.41%	41.75%	R+8.34
10	Alan Nakanishi	37.80%	41.83%	R+3.97
15	Guy Houston	38.26%	39.51%	R+1.25
26	Greg Aghazarian	40.84%	41.99%	R+1.15
34	Bill Maze	32.89%	46.88%	R+13.99
36	Sharon Runner	36.16%	42.77%	R+6.61
64	John Benoit	33.49%	45.45%	R+7.94
71	Todd Spitzer	26.55%	52.07%	R+25.52
75	George Plescia	28.73%	43.15%	R+14.42
78	Shirley Horton	40.92%	33.99%	D+6.93
80	Bonnie Garcia	45.59%	36.97%	D+8.62

District	2002G	2004P	2004S	2006S	PF
2	R+30.0	R+34.1	R+23.7	R+16.7	R+24.0
3	R+31.5	R+14.7	R+7.3	R+0.2	R+12.4
10	R+16.6	R+14.0	R+0.7	D+6.2	R+5.8
15	R+4.5	D+0.1	D+7.8	D+22.3	D+4.9
26	R+5.7	R+15.6	D+1.0	D+6.3	R+3.0
34	R+26.1	R+33.6	R+20.9	R+12.6	R+21.4
36	R+26.0	R+21.9	R+5.7	D+5.4	R+11.0
64	R+15.3	R+16.6	R+1.6	D+0.7	R+8.1
71	R+33.6	R+30.2	R+19.4	R+14.4	R+24.6
75	R+19.8	R+12.7	R+0.2	D+5.6	R+8.3
78	D+2.4	D+3.2	D+20.4	D+24.2	D+11.4
80	D+8.6	D+5.2	D+19.3	D+22.4	D+12.8

Democratic-Held Seats (11)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin
1	Patty Berg	44.52%	28.05%	D+16.27
8	Lois Wolk	45.52%	29.51%	D+16.01
13	Mark Leno	56.22%	9.31%	D+46.91
14	Loni Hancock	58.70%	15.04%	D+43.66
19	Gene Mullin	50.05%	22.57%	D+27.48
22	Sally Lieber	43.40%	24.25%	D+19.15
27	John Laird	48.12%	26.40%	D+21.68
30	Nicole Parra	46.45%	38.70%	D+7.75
40	Lloyd Levine	47.78%	28.12%	D+19.66
46	Fabian Núñez	63.37%	12.78%	D+50.59
52	Mervyn Dymally	67.90%	13.00%	D+54.90

District	2002G	2004P	2004S	2006S	PF
1	D+10.3	D+22.4	D+26.5	D+32.5	D+21.6
8	D+8.8	D+12.5	D+22.8	D+28.8	D+17.8
13	D+53.3	D+72.2	D+73.5	D+72.9	D+63.8
14	D+43.9	D+62.8	D+61.7	D+65.6	D+55.5
19	D+28.4	D+39.8	D+44.8	D+54.4	D+39.0
22	D+26.4	D+36.1	D+40.7	D+48.5	D+34.2
27	D+20.4	D+35.0	D+36.0	D+43.8	D+31.4
30	R+2.6	R+14.7	D+3.8	D+12.9	D+1.4
40	D+11.6	D+21.9	D+35.3	D+33.7	D+24.3
46	D+60.8	D+62.7	D+72.3	D+72.3	D+63.7
52	D+70.0	D+73.5	D+79.4	D+79.9	D+71.5

SENATE

10 Senators are term-limited in 2008, 6 Democrats and 4 Republicans.

*Maldonado is not term-limited but may be vulnerable in his increasingly Democratic district.

Republican-Held Seats (5)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin
15	Abel Maldonado*	39.69%	37.14%	D+2.55
19	Tom McClintock	36.23%	40.36%	R+4.13
29	Bob Margett	32.14%	44.68%	R+12.54
33	Dick Ackerman	26.94%	50.75%	R+23.81
37	Jim Battin	34.57%	45.26%	R+10.69

District	2002G	2004P	2004S	2006S	PF
15	R+2.4	D+6.4	D+11.3	D+20.6	D+7.7
19	R+7.0	R+2.0	D+7.6	D+10.6	D+1.0
29	R+19.9	R+15.2	R+1.7	R+2.2	R+10.3
33	R+31.4	R+27.2	R+14.9	R+11.6	R+21.8
37	R+13.4	R+16.6	R+0.9	D+2.2	R+7.9

Democratic-Held Seats (6)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin
5	Michael Machado	45.98%	32.41%	D+13.57
7	Tom Torlakson	46.81%	30.66%	D+16.15
9	Don Perata	58.98%	13.53%	D+45.45
21	Jack Scott	45.65%	28.56%	D+17.09
23	Sheila Kuehl	50.07%	25.26%	D+24.81
25	Edward Vincent	58.87%	20.97%	D+37.90

District	2002G	2004P	2004S	2006S	PF
5	D+7.7	D+8.4	D+22.2	D+27.6	D+15.9
7	D+14.5	D+22.8	D+27.2	D+39.6	D+24.1
9	D+48.2	D+63.6	D+64.5	D+66.6	D+57.7
21	D+15.0	D+27.8	D+35.9	D+37.0	D+26.6
23	D+22.6	D+31.1	D+40.8	D+45.9	D+33.0
25	D+38.7	D+45.7	D+52.9	D+53.6	D+45.8

Now here is a list of the districts with the most competitive PF’s, ranked from highest to lowest priority.

Assembly

District	PF
80	D+12.8
78	D+11.4
15	D+4.9
30	D+1.4
26	R+3.0
10	R+5.8
64	R+8.1
75	R+8.3

Senate

District	PF
15	D+7.7
19	D+1.0

Overall, we should target Assembly Districts 10, 15, 26, 64, 75, 78, and 80 while defending District 30, and target Senate Districts 15 and 19. If we manage to win both Senate seats, we will have 27 Senate seats, enough for a 2/3 majority. If we win the most competitive Assembly districts (10, 15, 26, 78, 80) we will have 53, just one short of 2/3. We would have to win at least one of the lesser competitive districts (64, 75) to reach 2/3 there. We will also have to defend AD-30, which may not be hard if we find a candidate less divisive than Parra.

With 2/3 in both houses, we can finally pass decent budgets without significant bickering and with sufficient funding for things like mental health facilities and public transit including high-speed rail.

I just love talking about Rob Haswell cause here is one candidate who has never run before and who’s running one of the most energized and smartest campaigns in the Lake Tahoe area.

In case you haven’t heard about Rob Haswell yet, and considering we’re mostly talking about congressional and gubernatorial campaigns you probably haven’t, he’s running in California’s open (!) 4th Assembly district which ranges from the suburbs of Sacramento up to Lake Tahoe. The district mostly overlapses with the 4th Congressional district represented by Abramoff buddy John Doolittle. Running against Doolittle is fighting Dem Charlie Brown.

A couple of days ago I also talked about Rob in my post The Modern Campaign.

Rob Haswell’s Republican opponent Ted Gaines is proud of his connection with Abramoff buddy John Doolittle as becomes apparent from his endorsement list and his photo page.

Recently, Carlos Alcala of the Sacramento Bee has also taken notice:

Placer-grown rivalry: Assembly candidate Rob Haswell scheduled some recent events with the theme of preserving open space and boosting local agriculture. Promoting his Loomis “Keep it Rural” rally, Haswell backers noted his family has been in Placer for five generations. It started with great-great-grandfather Frederick Birdsall, who came to Auburn in the 1870s and started an olive oil company that was family-run until the 1970s. (Street Whys mentioned this stuff in June, because some Auburn streets are named for Birdsalls.) We like Haswell’s rural and ag focus, but we have to point out that his opponent in the race has deep Placer ag roots, too. County Supervisor Ted Gaines’ great-great-grandfather was James William Kaseberg, who showed up in these parts in the 1850s or 1860s. He amassed up to 50,000 acres stretching from Roseville to the Sacramento River, and raised wheat, among other products. Roseville has a school, drive and park named Kaseberg. … One could see the Assembly race as a Wild West duel of farm histories, but we prefer a more peaceful scenario: Imagine that at some point in Placer’s past, someone sat down to eat and dipped bread made from Kaseberg wheat into Birdsall’s Aeolia Olive Oil.

That olive oil story is great and here is what Rob has to say about the “rural” background of Ted Haines:

My opponent, developer-backed Ted Gaines, also comes from deep agricultural roots in the county. Although we are both 5th Generation, we have come to very different conclusions about what the future of our region should look like. This race will be about those competing visions.

It’s fantastic to see a candidate take real interest in local issues and think about what’s best for the future. Rob Haswell’s support of PlacerGROWN is a great example. Encouraging people to buy local produce has several advantages: it’s good for the environment, it safes energy resources, it supports and creates employment in the area and of course the produce is always fresh.

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This is an edited version of a post on my local blog Turn Tahoe Blue.