Much has been written about how Jane Kim beat San Francisco’s “progressive machine” last week to win the District 6 Supervisor race.  But a precinct analysis of the election results tells a far bigger story, and explains how she pulled it off.  Just like Howard Dean’s Fifty State Strategy helped Democrats win nationwide, Jane Kim was everywhere – and conceded no part of District 6.  Debra Walker carried the North Mission and a few progressive pockets, but racking up margins in some core precincts is not enough when your opponent actively contests every neighborhood.  Kim beat Walker in the Tenderloin (where she had a better operation), and easily won the Chinese precincts – but also carried places like Treasure Island and the Western Addition.  And as Jane’s field coordinator for condos in Eastern SOMA, I’m very proud she won those precincts by a landslide – as we were the only campaign to show up.  These were the Rob Black voters of 2006, but Kim proved that even a progressive can win those neighborhoods – if you bother to talk to them.

The changing demographics of District 6 has been talked about for years.  Chris Daly first won the seat with 81% of the vote, but that was before places like Rincon Hill and Mission Bay got thousands of new condos.  By 2006, Daly was in trouble.  Progressives suddenly had to turn out Tenderloin SRO residents in droves, just to save his re-election.  

I was part of that effort four years ago, and it was both physically and emotionally exhausting.  We managed to get SRO turnout to match the citywide average in that election (which is incredible), and Daly won.  But the map could not have been more polarizing – with Rob Black sweeping the newer SOMA precincts, and Daly winning progressive strongholds.

Back then, a lot of us knew that 2006 was the “final hurrah” for the Chris Daly coalition.  If progressives were serious about keeping District 6, they must learn how to round up “more than the usual suspects” – regardless of who the candidate would be.  Winning in progressive places like the Tenderloin and North Mission would no longer be enough.

One of the keys to Jane Kim’s success was that the campaign never conceded a single neighborhood — forming a Fifty-Nine Precinct Strategy that met voters in every corner of District 6.  Arguably, because she lacked the big progressive institutional endorsements, it was the only way she could win to outmaneuver Debra Walker.

Like Chris Daly, Jane Kim won the Tenderloin – because she had a base of SRO tenants and immigrant families.  It takes months of campaigning for a candidate to build trust in that neighborhood, and Kim’s relationship with local community organizers made that possible.  Walker campaigned in the Tenderloin, but Kim beat her there by 140 votes.

Of course, Kim’s campaign had a formidable “Chinese team” – whose outreach to the District’s Chinese voters allowed her to rack up huge margins in two SOMA precincts, as well as pad her Tenderloin numbers.  But she also had a Pilipino team that organized that community in SOMA, and Russian phone-bankers reached out to its senior population.

As the favorite of progressive institutions like the Bay Guardian, the Labor Council and the SF Democratic Party, Debra Walker had a huge advantage in the North Mission and Western SOMA – where many voters follow the slate-cards.  But Kim had a strong field presence there, which kept her losses under control.  She won two Mission precincts and tied in a third, while holding Walker’s lead in four Western SOMA precincts down to six votes.

District 6 has the Tenderloin, SOMA and North Mission – but some voters live in pockets that don’t fall into those neighborhoods.  Kim campaigned in those areas, such as the Freedom West Homes in the Western Addition.  Supervisor Ross Mirkarimi, whose District 5 borders the housing project, took Jane canvassing there one day – and we learned many voters in that precinct mistakenly thought Mirkarimi was their Supervisor.  Kim won that precinct, as well as hard-to-reach parts of District 6 like Treasure Island – and house-boats in Mission Bay.

When I agreed to lead the Jane Kim campaign’s volunteer “condo team” for SOMA, I assumed it was to make sure we did not get slaughtered there.  After all, these were the Rob Black voters who almost threw out Chris Daly four years ago.  With Theresa Sparks getting Downtown money and the Mayor’s endorsement, they would be her natural supporters.

That turned out not to be the case.  On the one hand, we were lucky that Sparks did not campaign much.  But frankly, Debra Walker’s campaign was invisible in South Beach.  And as we knocked on doors in high-rises near the Ballpark and Cal-Train station, we found a surprising level of support.  On Election Day, voters at 4th & King told us we were the only campaign they knew about.

Granted, we did get the occasional condo voter who asked questions like “where does Jane stand on sit/lie?” or “how is she going to pay for this?” – and I have no idea if those people ended up voting for her.  If asked, we did not pander – we told them the truth, even if it lost us some votes.  But we focused on pitching her biography as a Stanford and Berkeley graduate, who is a civil rights attorney.  And Jane Kim was the kind of young professional these voters could relate to.

The election results were staggering.  In the thirteen precincts that make up South Beach, Mission Bay & Eastern SOMA, Kim won handily with 1,113 votes – followed by 823 votes for Sparks, and 564 for Walker.  In the Ranked Choice Voting tabulation, Sparks supporters preferred Kim – and Kim even beat Sparks among the Matt Drake voters.

An important lesson for progressives is not to fear those District 6 condo voters – but to instead set aside your pre-conceived notions, and come to their neighborhood.  A lot of them voted for Jane Kim, even if they knew she’s a progressive – because she was there.

Yesterday, the blog Live-SoMa – which covers local neighborhood and political issues – offered its analysis:  “While [Jane’s] opposition thinks she won because she’s young, pretty, articulate, and so on (all great qualities to have as a politician), I still think it had more to do with her overall presence throughout the Community.  It’s as if she made it her personal mission to hang a flier on every door in District 6, and she certainly tried to shake every hand – moreso than any other Candidate.  I even saw her walking down the hall in my building one Sunday Afternoon, and we’re all renters … renters don’t vote!”

On Friday night, after the Ranked Choice Voting tabulation confirmed her the winner, Jane Kim had a party for her supporters – which I attended.  “Anyone could have done what we did,” she said, “but it takes a lot of work.”

Campaigning in all 59 precincts is a lot of work.  Executing a Fifty-Nine Precinct Strategy is a lot of work.  Conceding no neighborhood is a lot of work.  But anyone can do it …

Paul Hogarth is the Managing Editor of Beyond Chron, where this piece was first published.  He lives and works in San Francisco’s District 6, and considered running himself for the seat this year – before backing out and supporting Jane Kim.

With a conventional wisdom that would make David Broder blush, the New York Times issued a dire warning to Democrats yesterday: 2010 will be a bad year, no incumbent in Congress will be safe, and expect to spend much of the time playing defense.  Here in California, progressives should not let such talk intimidate them, and focus on playing offense.  No matter how angry voters are at Democrats and Congress, they hate the Republicans even more.  California has eight red congressional districts that Obama carried in 2008 (with demographics in their favor), so there’s no reason not to have credible challengers everywhere.  I met recently with such a candidate – Beth Krom from Orange County’s 48th District.

Eager to narrate a sequel of 1994, the Times’ Adam Nagourney and Jeff Zeleny focused their front-page story on the “plight” of Democratic Congressman David Obey – the powerful Appropriations Committee Chair who has represented Wisconsin’s 7th District for 41 years.  But despite a challenger who’s popular with Teabaggers, the Times’ own chart pegs the race as “solid Democratic” (meaning that Obey is heavily favored to win.)  For Republicans to take back the House, they must win every “toss-up” seat – plus a handful of races currently leaning Democratic, and defend all 20 seats now leaning their way.

Forget momentum has shifted since Congress passed health care reform, to the point that G.O.P. elders are starting to get worried about their Party’s chances.  Never mind that Latinos continue to be a larger share of the electorate, and that Arizona’s racist new law will galvanize that community to vote in higher numbers.  Ignore that Republicans have been so taken over by the Nativist – Teabagger wing of their Party that they will alienate swing voters in the general election.  And forget millennial voters turned out in record numbers over the past three elections – which is important, because such a pattern makes them voters for life.

In California, Secretary of State Debra Bowen just released new voter registration figures – with good news for Democrats.  Over the past four years, Democrats have gone from 42 to 44 percent of the statewide electorate.  Republicans, on the other hand, have shrunk from 34.5 to 31% – or a three-point decline.  Decline-to-state voters, of course, also increased a couple percentage points (as they have for years now), but independents in California heavily favor Democrats over Republicans.  While the Tea Party movement may measure voter intensity, it certainly doesn’t show a political shift.

Last year, I wrote a piece for Beyond Chron called “Red California Death Watch” – where I outlined the eight Congressional districts in California represented by a Republican that Obama won.  The Democratic Party ignored most of these districts that year (but a couple came close), so there was no excuse not to field eight serious challenges in 2010.  Far from 2008 being a “high-water mark,” demographics is a big reason why these districts are trending blue.

Even when it’s too early to tell whether it will be a good election cycle, Democrats must leave no district behind.  1998 was a good year for Democrats (due to a backlash against Kenneth Starr’s witch-hunt), but they didn’t win control because they didn’t contest enough seats.

In Orange County, Irvine City Councilmember Beth Krom is running for Congress this year – taking on two-term incumbent John Campbell.  The district has never had a serious Democrat run, and demographics still make it a daunting task.  But while Teabaggers are giving Republicans all this grassroots “energy,” G.O.P. registration in the 48th dropped 3 points in two years (47 to 44%), or twice as fast as the statewide trend. Democrats are up one percentage point (28 to 29%), and “decline-to-states” are up two points (20 to 22%.)

I sat down with Krom, when in Los Angeles for the California Democratic Convention.  She’s not fazed by the tough road ahead – citing her record of winning elections at the local level in Irvine, which is a Republican town. “I’ve never had an easy race,” she said.  Municipal elections are non-partisan, but her Republican opponents always tried making her Democratic affiliation an issue.  Having started her career as a neighborhood activist, Krom is running on her record as a “results-oriented” collaborator in local government.

The incumbent Congressman she’s challenging – John Campbell – has made a name of himself for pandering to the “birthers.”  He introduced legislation requiring all candidates for President to submit their birth certificate, which earned him some ridicule on the Daily Show.  But as Krom pointed out to me, the 48th may be Republican-leaning – but it’s also a highly educated district.  And, moreover, it has a thriving immigrant population.

The conventional narrative in the media is that Democrats had a “good thing going” in 2006 and 2008, but now political momentum dictates that 2010 will be a year where they have to play defense.  In California, pundits will say the race to watch is whether the East Bay’s Jerry McNerney can hold onto the seat he took away from Richard Pombo in 2006.  What they ignore is that McNerney didn’t just win that seat because it was a Democratic year – he won because Republicans are increasingly out of touch with Californians.

McNerney’s win in 2006 was an extension of Ellen Tauscher’s victory in 1996 over GOP Congressman Bill Baker.  As the Bay Area expands, suburban sprawl means Democratic progress.  In Orange County, Loretta Sanchez defeated Bob Dornan in 1996 – turning Anaheim blue.  There’s no reason why Beth Krom can’t do the same in Irvine this year.

Which is why there’s no reason Democrats shouldn’t stay on the offense in 2010 – taking on Republicans like John Campbell, who act as if Orange County hasn’t changed since the 1950’s.  Beth Krom’s campaign is what we need to be seeing more of this year.

Paul Hogarth is the Managing Editor of Beyond Chron, San Francisco’s Alternative Online Daily, where this piece was first published.

BANGOR – “Welcome to the real Maine,” said Regional Field Organizer Gabi Bérubé as I arrived yesterday at the “No on 1” office in Brewer, just across the Penobscot River from Bangor.  That’s what Mainers up here call their part of the state, and it’s where I am spending the rest of my time on the campaign.  I asked to go to Bangor because I wanted to help our field effort in more challenging places, after “No on 8” spent too much time last year preaching to the choir.  The Bangor office covers everything north and east of here – in other words, two-thirds of the state’s land mass.  Replicating Howard Dean’s 50 State Strategy, “No on 1” believes we have gay marriage supporters everywhere – and it’s our challenge to organize them.  But we’re also targeting the University of Maine in Orono, whose 11,000 students make it the largest college in the state.  Mobilizing young people on campus – and turning out identified supporters in rural areas – will prevent us from getting creamed in northern Maine, which will help us win statewide.

Last year, “No on 8” had an office in the Castro – which made sense, because they could get a lot of walk-in volunteers.  But the campaign never had them engage voters outside of San Francisco, instead stupidly having them wave signs at street corners.  Meanwhile, LGBT activists in the Central Valley were ignored and under-utilized – prompting a mass rally in Fresno on May 31st to kick off the movement to repeal Prop 8.  If our side simply writes off those who live in conservative areas, how can we deserve to get a single vote there?

I’m not asking to be sent to the outer reaches of Arostook County – but Bangor appealed to me as a marginal area with enough voters to decide this election.  With a population of 30,000, it is the second largest city in Maine (third if you count Lewiston-Auburn as one city.)  It has a “small town” vibe, where many residents don’t lock their doors.  Bangor has a vocal LGBT community, but it currently has no gay bars – and the 1984 murder of Charlie Howard in the Kenduskeag Stream still haunts that community’s consciousness.

I came up from Portland yesterday morning, on a two-hour drive that took me through the most gorgeous fall colors I have ever seen.  I would have taken more time, but Gabi had asked me to arrive in Bangor around 12:00 noon.  She had to leave at 1:00 p.m. sharp for Washington County (also called “Sunrise County,” because it’s the easternmost part of Maine) to run a phone-bank in Machias – and wouldn’t be back until very late that night.  When I heard she was driving 83 miles on a two-lane road to go supervise ten volunteers, I was floored.  But that’s what it takes to do campaign organizing in the “real Maine.”

Just like Howard Dean’s 50 State Strategy showed Democrats they can start winning if they competed everywhere, “No on 1” has identified marriage equality supporters in the most conservative pockets.  Even if we still lose those areas badly, mining enough votes by encouraging supporters to “vote early” can pay dividends on Election Day.  As I wrote yesterday, Maine’s gay community had a 20-year losing streak of statewide ballot measures until 2005.  One of the strategies we changed that year was to start engaging conservative regions.

But working from the Bangor office won’t always be about driving for hours to meet ten volunteers.  The University of Maine is in Orono (about 15 minutes away), and same-day voter registration means we can generate a huge turnout for marriage equality on campus.  I met up with the four campus organizers yesterday afternoon, who had spent the whole morning doing volunteer recruitment.  Before they had to stop because of the rain, they had signed up 84 students to a shift.  They are organizing phone-banks on campus, and we discussed more outreach strategies.  I’ll be spending some of my time there.

It’s important, however, to realize the challenge “No on 1” organizers are facing in this area.  On Sunday night, I was at a phone-bank in Portland – with over 50 volunteers that required an overflow room.  Even if you take out the twenty volunteers who had come “from away”, we had 30 Portland residents making calls.  Last night, I was at a volunteer recruitment phone-bank on the outskirts of Bangor and only four people showed up.  The good news, however, is that pretty much everyone we called and spoke to committed to a volunteer shift later in the week – as we conveyed the urgency of mobilizing early voting.

This is actually the second time I’ve been to Maine.  The first time was in the summer of 2000, when I did a 28-state road trip after college.  I set out to do the entirety of Route 1 on the East Coast – which goes all the way to Key West, Florida.  That meant I would go to Maine, and drive up to Fort Kent in Arostook County – at the very northern tip of the state.  Before going, a lot of Mainers told me I was crazy – telling me that all I would find up there is “moose and woods and French people.”  I doubt that I’ll be going back to Fort Kent this time – but it’s exciting to be working out of the “No on 1” office for this region.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Paul Hogarth is the Managing Editor of Beyond Chron, San Francisco’s Alternative Online Daily, where this piece was first published.  He is helping to run Travel for Change, which helps bring out-of-state volunteers to Maine with money and donated airline miles for the “No on 1” campaign.  Hopefully later today, the site will launch “Drive for Equality” to organize carpools in East Coast states for day and weekend trips to Maine. Stay tuned …